This week sees a revamped format so those of you who are just looking for tips can find them first. I'm also introducing a rejigged statistical analysis via "Dr Stats Ph.D. Says".
I'll follow that with all the racing news since I last published and finish off with how we fared last time out.
I'll follow that with all the racing news since I last published and finish off with how we fared last time out.
Lastly - Good to see the ANZAC silks being worn by the topweights at Flemington for the ANZAC Day meeting yesterday.
Lest We Forget.
LOOKING FORWARD
Randwick
*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. There are four early scratchings. ***
Race 1 No. 5 Rowie
Race 3 No. 12 Bugaboo
Race 8 No. 3 Hot Snitzel
Race 8 No. 5 Pampelonne
Race 1 No. 5 Rowie
Race 3 No. 12 Bugaboo
Race 8 No. 3 Hot Snitzel
Race 8 No. 5 Pampelonne
You don't have to be Colombo to figure out that Chris Waller and Tommy Berry are the in-form guys carnival wise. Waller's best chances appear to be Catkins, Reliable Man and Kelinni. Berry's best mounts look to be Decision Time and Silent Achiever with Shahad an each-way chance.
The Blake Shinn/Guy Walter combination is operating at a tick over 25% or one in four. Tomorrow they combine on Toydini and Skyerush.
The Blake Shinn/Guy Walter combination is operating at a tick over 25% or one in four. Tomorrow they combine on Toydini and Skyerush.
Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, open handicap)
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Kelinni.
Eight of the last 10 winners have paid $9 or less. Four of the last five favourites have won.
Who will stay the 3200m? Kelinni ran fourth in last year's Melbourne Cup and was on a quick back-up there too. Maluckyday ran third in The Cup two years ago. Niwot and Blood Brotha have two wins at the trip. Norsqui won last month's Adelaide Cup and Macedonian also has a victory over the two miles but that was in the Sandown Cup two and a half years ago. Mourayan ran third in that race. Tremec has not started at 3200m but his mother Tipple is a half-sister to Melbourne Cup winner Brew so he is bred to get the trip.
Locky's Selections
8 Tremec
4 Kelinni
5 Maluckyday
Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Reliable Man.
No three-year-old has won since Intergaze in 1997 and in that time three odds-on favourites have lost. Nine favourites have been beaten in the last 14 years including Sunline, Lonhro, Haradasun, Shogun Lodge, Tuesday Joy, Universal Prince and Whobegotyou. Only one mare has won this race since 1987. 25 of the last 30 winners have paid $7.50 or less.
No three-year-old has won since Intergaze in 1997 and in that time three odds-on favourites have lost. Nine favourites have been beaten in the last 14 years including Sunline, Lonhro, Haradasun, Shogun Lodge, Tuesday Joy, Universal Prince and Whobegotyou. Only one mare has won this race since 1987. 25 of the last 30 winners have paid $7.50 or less.
Hard to tip against the favourite despite the poor record of favourites and three-year-olds. Reliable Man was good in the George Ryder and he goes to the paddock after this (no Winter campaign) so this is his grand final. Lamasery goes well second-up (4:2-0-2). Secret Admirer and Happy Trails come here as an afterthought and my proclivities on that score have been well documented. Manighar went super last time out and may be getting back to somewhere near peak form. Silent Achiever is a query as she drops from the 2400m to the 2000m and this does look like a consolation prize for not winning the BMW rather than something she has been specifically aimed at.
Locky's Selections
2 Reliable Man
5 Lamasery
All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)
Current market
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: More Joyous.
Only two three-year-olds have won this race in the last 16 years. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times. Only one winner has paid $8+ in the last 13 runnings and in that time eight favourites have won.
The bottom three should fight it out. I could entertain Rain Affair in trifectas and first fours because he'll give them something to run down. Hard to see any of the others coming from behind More Joyous, All Too Hard and Epaulette and running past them. The three-year-olds have won everything this Autumn (Orr, Futurity, Australian Cup, Canterbury Stakes, George Ryder, BMW, Doncaster etc.) but I've just got a feeling Nash will be out for revenge after the mare was a good thing beaten last time out.
Only two three-year-olds have won this race in the last 16 years. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times. Only one winner has paid $8+ in the last 13 runnings and in that time eight favourites have won.
The bottom three should fight it out. I could entertain Rain Affair in trifectas and first fours because he'll give them something to run down. Hard to see any of the others coming from behind More Joyous, All Too Hard and Epaulette and running past them. The three-year-olds have won everything this Autumn (Orr, Futurity, Australian Cup, Canterbury Stakes, George Ryder, BMW, Doncaster etc.) but I've just got a feeling Nash will be out for revenge after the mare was a good thing beaten last time out.
Locky's Selections
7 All Too Hard
8 Epaulette
Champagne Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-0 set weights)
Current market
Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Guelph.
11 of the last 14 winners have finished either first or second in the Sires Produce at their last start. Peter Snowden has trained two of the last three winners. Only 1 favourite (Beneteau 2010) has failed to run a place in the last 18 years and nine of them won. Only four winners in that time paid more than $7.
It's hard to recommend anything that finished outside the top four in the Sires because they were all safely held. I've got a query on Scandiva at the mile too. Outside that race you have the two from the Golden Slipper in Criterion and Fast 'n' Rocking. Is this race an afterthought though? Or was it the target all along? They both give the appearance of looking for the 1600m. Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times and Nash Rawiller twice so Equator is in good hands. Riocetto is the fresh horse on the scene.
Locky's Selections
11 Guelph
1 Riocetto
Other bets
Skyerush (Race 3 No. 3) loves the mile and loves Randwick. Well weighted here given she drops back to fillies and mares grade after beating the boys with an extra one and a half kilos last start. As previously mentioned, Guy Walter and Blake Shinn could win on a rocking horse. Should be backable at about $4.
Skyerush (Race 3 No. 3) loves the mile and loves Randwick. Well weighted here given she drops back to fillies and mares grade after beating the boys with an extra one and a half kilos last start. As previously mentioned, Guy Walter and Blake Shinn could win on a rocking horse. Should be backable at about $4.
An all-up at Caulfield could be the way to go with Awesome Bro (Race 4 No. 3) and Rugged Cross (Race 5 No. 6) both well tried but likely to start short.
Honey Flower (Adelaide Race 8 No. 8) has been scratched from a mares race in Melbourne to contest a much harder Listed race at Morphettville. Looks a good each-way chance at around $8.
NEWS OF THE WEEK
Obviously the biggest news of the last seven days in Australian racing circles is that Pierro has joined Black Caviar in retirement.
The big news overseas has been the announcement that Sheikh Mohammed has closed his Goldolphin stables at Newmarket and ordered a full scale investigation after 11 horses tested positive for anabolic steroids. Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni has been handed a mammoth eight year ban by British racing's governing body for his role in administering the prohibited substances ethylestranol and stanozolol. Al Zarooni claims it was a "catastrophic error" and says that he didn't realise he was in breach of the rules by administering the drugs as the horses were not racing at the time.
Still on the overseas front and usually at this time of year we're waving goodbye to our top horses as they head off on OS campaigns but this year it's our jockeys on the move.
Tommy Berry heads off to Hong Kong for a two and a half month stint after completing his obligations at Randwick tomorrow. He could split a cab to the airport with Craig Williams because he'll also ride tomorrow before taking up a two month contract in Japan. Unfortunately he'll miss the first meeting after copping a suspension at Flemington yesterday. Meanwhile Corey Brown will ride Snitzerland in Adelaide tomorrow before he heads to Singapore and then France. He'll be away for four and a half months.
NZ Derby winner and last weekend's beaten Oaks favourite Habibi is also off OS after being sold to US interests, although her owner-breeders will retain a minority share. She'll be trained by Graham Motion, trainer of Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom, and will be aimed at the Breeders' Cup meeting later in the year.
Nikita McLean's five month ban for punching younger sister Jackie Beriman in the jockeys room at Hamilton a fortnight ago has been reduced to two and a half months on appeal. It was ruled that stewards placed too much emphasis on her previous misconduct conviction for assaulting another jockey and not enough on her mental state at the time of the incident.
In Sydney Chris Waller has escaped sanction for bringing four horses to the races with Ibuprofen in their systems after NSW stewards found he had no case to answer. Feed contamination was found to be the reason for a series of positive tests but stipes agreed with Waller that he took every possible measure to ensure feed consumed by his horses contained no prohibited substances.
Meantime VCAT has dismissed the appeal by Con and Tony Karakatsanis relating to the stomach-tubing incident involving Howmuchdoyouloveme before the Yellowglen Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day last year. Con was initially rubbed out for nine months and his father for two years. VCAT will now hear appeals on the severity of the penalty lodged by both men.
LOOKING BACK
Randwick
Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, open handicap)
The overall time was slow and they didn't go hard in front so Sacred Falls effort to come from last was massive. Pierro was gallant in defeat with the big weight and Norzita stuck on well after finding herself in front way too soon. Hard to make excuses for anything else as the winner ran past them all. He may just be a superior wet tracker.
Locky's Selections
14 Norzita (3rd)
11 Appearance (7th)
Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Royal Descent destroyed them. Forget the rest.
Locky's Selections
2 Habibi (4th)
3 Longport (5th)
2 Habibi (4th)
3 Longport (5th)
5 More Than Sacred (9th)
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
Everage (Race 2 No. 1) has two wins and three seconds from five starts. Both victories were on heavy ground and amongst her placings were seconds to Overreach in the Widden Stakes and Safeguard in last Saturday's Kindergarten Stakes when she looked home. The presence of the Waterhouse trained Major Conquest and Darley's Scrutiny should see us get about $3.50. Won. $2.10.
I could also entertain Brightest (Race 9 No. 12) on an each-way basis at the $15 mark. Two wins and a second from three second-up runs and is in the hands of form trainer Guy Walter. 13th.
Scream Machine (Race 6 No. 11) is finally getting to a trip that suits and provided he can get a solid tempo in front he should be storming home. Two wins and a third from three tries at 2000m. Keen to have a nibble each-way at the $11. 5th.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Sunshine... on the water.... makes me nose-dive.
- John Denver, just off the California coast, 12 October 1997
- John Denver, just off the California coast, 12 October 1997
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