No surpise that the number one headline this week is the purchase of Black Caviar's half brother for $5 million at the Inglis sales. It's been done to death so I won't go into it too much, suffice to say that it is a record for a yearling sold at auction in this country.
A couple of other nice lots went through the sales ring with a Fastnet Rock colt out of River Dove knocked down for $4 million. He could be a flying machine because both his mother and father are Oakleigh Plate winners.
A half brother to another Oakleigh Plate winner Starspangledbanner sold for $2.4 million.
Bad news for connections of Fiveandahalfstar with the gelding ruled out of the Australian Derby after he sprained a fetlock during last week's win in the BMW. Rebel Dane and Laser Hawk have also been sent to the spelling paddock following their disappointing efforts in the George Ryder Stakes.
Unless he can successfully appeal the severity of his suspension Kiwi young gun James McDonald will also miss the remainder of the Autumn Carnival after incurring the wrath of the stewards for his ride on Romantic Moon in the Golden Slipper last weekend. He's free to ride It's A Dundeel in the Derby tomorrow before beginning his suspension on Sunday. It lasts until April 28 and that means he'll miss the last two days of the Randwick Carnival.
It's better news for Golden Slipper winning jockey Tommy Berry. He's been awarded a contract to ride in Hong Kong for three months, beginning later this month.
Congratulations are also in order for hoop Greg Ryan who rode his 3000th career winner on Tuesday at Tamworth. His first came at Wellington back in 1991.
Great to see Chris Munce back in the saddle at Eagle Farm on Wednesday after seven weeks of radiation and three sessions of chemotherapy to treat the throat cancer he was diagnosed with late last year.
Ocean Park has run his last race. A tendon injury has forced his retirement and now stud duties beckon. The four-year-old son of Thorn Park amassed almost $2.8 million in prizemoney in eight wins from 15 starts, the highlight being his victory in last year's Cox Plate.
On a sad note 2002 VRC Derby winner Helenus has died from complications during surgery. The three time Group 1 winner of more than $2.1 million in prizemoney had been performing stallion duties at Wattle Grove in NSW. His best progeny to date are last year's Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and former BMW winner Cedarberg.
A couple of other nice lots went through the sales ring with a Fastnet Rock colt out of River Dove knocked down for $4 million. He could be a flying machine because both his mother and father are Oakleigh Plate winners.
A half brother to another Oakleigh Plate winner Starspangledbanner sold for $2.4 million.
Bad news for connections of Fiveandahalfstar with the gelding ruled out of the Australian Derby after he sprained a fetlock during last week's win in the BMW. Rebel Dane and Laser Hawk have also been sent to the spelling paddock following their disappointing efforts in the George Ryder Stakes.
Unless he can successfully appeal the severity of his suspension Kiwi young gun James McDonald will also miss the remainder of the Autumn Carnival after incurring the wrath of the stewards for his ride on Romantic Moon in the Golden Slipper last weekend. He's free to ride It's A Dundeel in the Derby tomorrow before beginning his suspension on Sunday. It lasts until April 28 and that means he'll miss the last two days of the Randwick Carnival.
It's better news for Golden Slipper winning jockey Tommy Berry. He's been awarded a contract to ride in Hong Kong for three months, beginning later this month.
Congratulations are also in order for hoop Greg Ryan who rode his 3000th career winner on Tuesday at Tamworth. His first came at Wellington back in 1991.
Great to see Chris Munce back in the saddle at Eagle Farm on Wednesday after seven weeks of radiation and three sessions of chemotherapy to treat the throat cancer he was diagnosed with late last year.
Ocean Park has run his last race. A tendon injury has forced his retirement and now stud duties beckon. The four-year-old son of Thorn Park amassed almost $2.8 million in prizemoney in eight wins from 15 starts, the highlight being his victory in last year's Cox Plate.
On a sad note 2002 VRC Derby winner Helenus has died from complications during surgery. The three time Group 1 winner of more than $2.1 million in prizemoney had been performing stallion duties at Wattle Grove in NSW. His best progeny to date are last year's Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and former BMW winner Cedarberg.
Lastly the winner of this year's Stradbroke Handicap at Eagle Farm during the Winter Carnival is in for a bonus with Queensland racing officials confirming a guaranteed $1 million winners cheque.
LOOKING BACK
Five Group 1 races last weekend and I tipped every single winner in my Top 3 with two on top. I also tipped two of the first three in all bar The BMW so perhaps the way to go this weekend is the Duet or Any 2, depending on the state in which you are betting .
Rosehill
Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
This race was all over after they'd gone about five yards when Overreach flew the gates and landed on the rail, near the front. In fact I thought the first seven over the line were all good runs looking ahead to races like the ATC Sires Produce, Champagne Stakes and the three-year-old races next Spring. Even I'm All The Talk could be forgiven with rider Brenton Avdulla reporting that his mount "got turned sideways before the corner and just didn't finish his race off after that".
13 Sweet Idea (3rd) $2.10 place
5 I'm All The Talk (10th)
11 Overreach (1st) $3.00 win / $1.70 place
Any 2 11-13 $4.70
5 I'm All The Talk (10th)
11 Overreach (1st) $3.00 win / $1.70 place
Any 2 11-13 $4.70
The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)
A cheeky ride by Hugh Bowman got the chocolates in this race with Fiveandahalfstar able to have a breather between the 1400m and 700m mark. Considering he was able to pour on the pressure from that point the run of Silent Acheiver was enormous after getting too far back. Maluckyday did the same thing and believe me Dwayne Dunn copped a spray for it. Sangster was much improved and completed a trifecta of former Derby winners. Jim Cassidy reported Foreteller didn't stay the 2400m and Christian Reith thinks Hathras will be better back on top of the ground. Kelinni did well to battle on after being forced to drag the field up to the leader.
Locky's Selections
5 Maluckday (6th)
12 Fiveandahalfstar (1st) $1.70 place
10 Hathras (7th)
George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)
I'll start off by looking at this race in terms of relative weights for the Doncaster next weekend. Fontelina finished fifth beaten less than a length and a half and drops seven kilos. Solzhenitsyn drops five and a half kilograms and he can be forgiven as his wet track and second-up record is poor. Happy Trails and Danleigh also weren't too far away and they drop four kilos.
Having said that, how good was the winner Pierro? Set a task by Nash Rawiller who sat three wide without cover to avoid a repeat of the More Joyous fiasco earlier in the day and was still able to run down a seasoned older horse who got away with daylight robbery in front. Drops 0.5kg for the Doncaster.
As I've said it was a slowly run race with King Mufhasa allowed to dictate and that was reflected in the fact that only two and a quarter lengths separated the first nine over the line.
Under the circumstances the efforts of backmarkers like Shoot Out (drops 2kg), Manighar and Reliable Man were good.
Locky's Selections
11 Pierro (1st) $1.30 win / $1.00 place
9 Solzhenitsyn (Last)
1 Shoot Out (3rd) $2.10 place
Any 2 1-11 $2.80
1 Shoot Out (3rd) $2.10 place
Any 2 1-11 $2.80
Queen of the Turf Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares w-f-a)
No secrets that odds-on favourite More Joyous was desperately unlucky here and should have won. It was in form trainer Guy Walter to the fore again with first and third. Appearance continues to get under the radar and it was good to see Streama return to form. Red Tracer was honest again.
Locky's Selections
No secrets that odds-on favourite More Joyous was desperately unlucky here and should have won. It was in form trainer Guy Walter to the fore again with first and third. Appearance continues to get under the radar and it was good to see Streama return to form. Red Tracer was honest again.
Locky's Selections
4 Red Tracer (2nd) $1.50 place
1 More Joyous (5th)3 Appearance (1st) $9.80 win / $2.60 place
Any 2 3-4 $3.90
Vinery Stud Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Longport gave Norzita a fright but in the end the Bart Cummings filly was too good. She's a genuine lightweight hope in the Doncaster now seeing she'll get four kilos from Pierro. Habibi is a deserved Oaks favourite. She was five weeks between runs and dropping back from 2400m to 2000m. She looked a bit dour, was caught flat footed and couldn't sprint with them but still hit the line full of running. It's hard to make a case for the rest turning it around in a fortnight because the first three cleared out, although Gondokoro does have a bit of that Pat Carey/Ethiopia sense of timing about her.
Locky's Selections
3 Norzita (1st) $3.00 win / $1.60 place
2 Dear Demi (5th)
4 Habibi (3rd) $1.60 place
Any 2 3-4 $2.70
Any 2 3-4 $2.70
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
High Shot (Rosehill Race 3 No. 15) was doing his best work late in the Phar Lap Stakes and was the last one to pull up, a sure sign he's looking for the 2000m. He's entered for the Australian Derby so the stable obviously thinks he has potential. Happy to have a nibble each-way at the $8 currently on offer.
8th. Showed early promise but is not putting himself into races. One last chance tomorrow in the Derby (place only) with the blinkers on first time.
High Shot (Rosehill Race 3 No. 15) was doing his best work late in the Phar Lap Stakes and was the last one to pull up, a sure sign he's looking for the 2000m. He's entered for the Australian Derby so the stable obviously thinks he has potential. Happy to have a nibble each-way at the $8 currently on offer.
8th. Showed early promise but is not putting himself into races. One last chance tomorrow in the Derby (place only) with the blinkers on first time.
LOOKING FORWARD
Randwick
*** As of 11.30am today the track was rated a Slow 6 and is likely to improve with the forecast for mostly fine, warm and sunny conditions for the rest of today and tomorrow ***
Australian Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
Hard to tip against the odds-on favourite It's A Dundeel after his authoritative wins in the Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas. His only real danger seemed to be Fiveandahalfstar before his withdrawal. Murray Baker has had just four horses contest this race but has walked away with a win and a second.
The only knocks could be the fact that he has failed at his only go at this trip (although he is a stronger horse now according to both rider and trainer) and that just two favourites have won this race in the last 16 years (Headturner at $3.50 in 2006 and Universal Prince at $2.90 in 2001). Octagonal is the last odds-on pop to win in 1996 at $1.90. Having said that, six of the last seven odds-on favourites have won.
The only way he could get beaten is if something improves dramatically. So who could that be?
Hvasstan obviously springs to mind. He beat It's A Dundeel home in the VRC Derby last November and has shown he is a stayer of some promise with wins in the Norman Robinson Stakes and Alister Clark Stakes. If you treat his first start failure in Sydney as an anomalie then he can run a big race.
Phillipi is another who just keeps improving every time the bar is raised and his lovely relaxed racing style makes him an ideal Derby horse. Flashed home from last on the turn to finish sixth in the Australian Guineas before a closing second in the Alister Clarke behind Hvasstan then completed his preparation by bolting in last weekend in the Tulloch Stakes.
The blinkers go on High Shot, Mick Kent continues to push on and Craig Williams hasn't sacked him so that's a good sign because it is not something he's afraid to do.
Hippopus was OK behind Phillipi in the Tulloch Stakes and being from the Waterhouse yard you would expect him to be rock hard fit and up on the pace. That looks an advantage here with no real speed in the race. Interesting stat though - despite their dominance at Randwick in recent years, Gai Waterhouse (17 runners) and Nash Rawiller (5 rides) have never won an Australian Derby.
Kingdoms looks like he will stay all day but is a class below the top ones.
Locky's Selections
1 It's A Dundeel
3 Phillipi
9 High Shot
3 Phillipi
9 High Shot
T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
This race did not become a Group 1 until 2005 and in the eight subsequent runnings six favourites have have gone under including names like Alinghi, Foxwedge, Apache Cat, Mic Mac, Spark of Life and Snitzel. That could be the only possible argument you could make for Black Caviar getting beaten if she is on song. But she won't.
Bel Sprinter was awesome in the Galaxy when he gave them windburn between the 300m and the 200m but how much has that first-up blitz taken out of him? You have to believe your eyes (take Snitzerland out and he wins by four) but I'll be looking around him for my exotics as I think I'll get better value that way.
Rain Affair will lead them a merry dance in front but I'm sure trainer Joe Pride would have preferred the rain to have stayed around. He'll be in front for a long way and give you a great sight and could be a cheeky place bet.
It says something about the calibre of the favourite when a mare like Sea Siren who has won six from twelve including three Group 1's can go around at $21. She was ridden upside down in the Galaxy last start and may benefit from being ridden a bit further back where she can finish her race off. Could run into the minors.
Hay List has had a year long injury layoff, had to be scratched from The Galaxy, missed a trial due to wet weather then trialed poorly at Wyong last Sunday. I hope he runs a good race to get some fitness going ahead to the All Aged Stakes in a fortnight but I can't have him.
$71+ the rest.
Locky's Selections
9 Black Caviar
Current market
This race did not become a Group 1 until 2005 and in the eight subsequent runnings six favourites have have gone under including names like Alinghi, Foxwedge, Apache Cat, Mic Mac, Spark of Life and Snitzel. That could be the only possible argument you could make for Black Caviar getting beaten if she is on song. But she won't.
Bel Sprinter was awesome in the Galaxy when he gave them windburn between the 300m and the 200m but how much has that first-up blitz taken out of him? You have to believe your eyes (take Snitzerland out and he wins by four) but I'll be looking around him for my exotics as I think I'll get better value that way.
Rain Affair will lead them a merry dance in front but I'm sure trainer Joe Pride would have preferred the rain to have stayed around. He'll be in front for a long way and give you a great sight and could be a cheeky place bet.
It says something about the calibre of the favourite when a mare like Sea Siren who has won six from twelve including three Group 1's can go around at $21. She was ridden upside down in the Galaxy last start and may benefit from being ridden a bit further back where she can finish her race off. Could run into the minors.
Hay List has had a year long injury layoff, had to be scratched from The Galaxy, missed a trial due to wet weather then trialed poorly at Wyong last Sunday. I hope he runs a good race to get some fitness going ahead to the All Aged Stakes in a fortnight but I can't have him.
$71+ the rest.
Locky's Selections
9 Black Caviar
3 Rain Affair
10 Sea Siren
Sires Produce Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 2-y-o set weights)
Current market
All the stats point to last weekend's dashing Golden Slipper winner Overreach. Gai Waterhouse has trained seven of the last 13 Sires Produce winners. In the last 20 years only 2 winners have paid more than $8 (Excites at $21 in 2006 and Yosei at $17 in 2010) and every other runner is likely to start at $11+.
It's hard to see anything that finished behind her turning the tables tomorrow as there weren't any real hard luck stories. You could make an argument that Guelph has scope for improvement given the run last Saturday was her first in six weeks. Charlie Boy did get into a bumping duel at the top of the straight and he may be able to possie up a bit closer this week given the inside draw and the smaller field. Windjammer was only OK and I honestly don't think Villa Verde would go 1400m if you dropped her down a mineshaft.
Florid Affair is the only horse under $21 who did not contest the Slipper. Won in much weaker grade last time out but did so with an air of authority. Another Waterhouse runner so no loss there and the added bonus is the engagement of Jim Cassidy. Since "Pumper" rode that winning double on Pierro and Foreteller on Rosehill Guineas Day he has ridden nine winners and seven placegetters from 36 rides. (Win 25% / Place 44%)
So Man Up was slowly away at Cranbourne on debut, settled last, raced greenly and yet still won as he liked. I don't know if he can get away with those sort of mistakes tomorrow but Peter Moody obviously thinks enough of him to bring him north.
I think Champollion, Havana, Drago, Scandiva and Shahad could develop into nice horses but I think they are a level below the others at this stage.
Locky's Selections
Current market
All the stats point to last weekend's dashing Golden Slipper winner Overreach. Gai Waterhouse has trained seven of the last 13 Sires Produce winners. In the last 20 years only 2 winners have paid more than $8 (Excites at $21 in 2006 and Yosei at $17 in 2010) and every other runner is likely to start at $11+.
It's hard to see anything that finished behind her turning the tables tomorrow as there weren't any real hard luck stories. You could make an argument that Guelph has scope for improvement given the run last Saturday was her first in six weeks. Charlie Boy did get into a bumping duel at the top of the straight and he may be able to possie up a bit closer this week given the inside draw and the smaller field. Windjammer was only OK and I honestly don't think Villa Verde would go 1400m if you dropped her down a mineshaft.
Florid Affair is the only horse under $21 who did not contest the Slipper. Won in much weaker grade last time out but did so with an air of authority. Another Waterhouse runner so no loss there and the added bonus is the engagement of Jim Cassidy. Since "Pumper" rode that winning double on Pierro and Foreteller on Rosehill Guineas Day he has ridden nine winners and seven placegetters from 36 rides. (Win 25% / Place 44%)
So Man Up was slowly away at Cranbourne on debut, settled last, raced greenly and yet still won as he liked. I don't know if he can get away with those sort of mistakes tomorrow but Peter Moody obviously thinks enough of him to bring him north.
I think Champollion, Havana, Drago, Scandiva and Shahad could develop into nice horses but I think they are a level below the others at this stage.
Locky's Selections
7 Overreach
8 Guelph
13 Florid Affair
8 Guelph
13 Florid Affair
Chairman's Quality (Group 2, 2600m, quality handicap)
* Dance With Her is an early scratching
Current market
Hathras looks the one here dropping to 53kg in a Group 2 handicap after carrying 58kg last weekend in a Group 1 weight-for-age race. He was less than two and a half lengths behind Fiveandahalfstar and that'll do me. I also liked the way he battled on in the straight after looking beaten on the turn.
Julienas is in great touch and Gai Waterhouse and Nash Rawiller have a habit of bobbing up when racing returns to headquarters. The 58kg over 2600m is the concern though, with 12 of the last 15 winners of this race carrying 54.5kg or less.
Mourayan saves some of his best form for Sydney. He has won a Craven Plate and finished second in both a Metropolitan and a Hill Stakes here at Randwick. He's also finished second in a BMW at Rosehill.
Aliyana Tilde got the chocolates for us a few weeks ago but looks thrown in at the deep end here however I could maybe entertain her in trifecta and first four betting.
Permit, Tremec and Coliseo are in good form but appear to be out of their depth here and Vatuvei wouldn't be a total shock. He won the Moonee Valley Cup fourth run in last prep and is finally getting to a suitable trip.
Locky's Selections
* Dance With Her is an early scratching
Current market
Hathras looks the one here dropping to 53kg in a Group 2 handicap after carrying 58kg last weekend in a Group 1 weight-for-age race. He was less than two and a half lengths behind Fiveandahalfstar and that'll do me. I also liked the way he battled on in the straight after looking beaten on the turn.
Julienas is in great touch and Gai Waterhouse and Nash Rawiller have a habit of bobbing up when racing returns to headquarters. The 58kg over 2600m is the concern though, with 12 of the last 15 winners of this race carrying 54.5kg or less.
Aliyana Tilde got the chocolates for us a few weeks ago but looks thrown in at the deep end here however I could maybe entertain her in trifecta and first four betting.
Permit, Tremec and Coliseo are in good form but appear to be out of their depth here and Vatuvei wouldn't be a total shock. He won the Moonee Valley Cup fourth run in last prep and is finally getting to a suitable trip.
Locky's Selections
11 Hathras
2 Julienas
1 Mourayan2 Julienas
Sapphire Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)
* Ever The Same is an early scratching
Current market
I've got a feeling this will be a race set up for the swoopers with Mrs Onassis, Satin Shoes, Altar, Karuta Queen, Miss Stellabelle and Gybe all likely to push forward. So I'll be looking away from them when making my selections here because I've got a feeling they may cut each other up in front.
I also find it hard to tip anything that finished behind Arinosa last time, despite the fact she will meet many of them worse at the weights. I felt she had Shamal Wind (1 kilo better off), the unlucky New Beginning (0.5kg), Lady's Angel (no difference) and Soft Sand (2kg) well covered.
Looking at other form races and the run of Dystopia when fourth in the Galaxy was super. I've just got a query on her second-up and have to wonder how much that first-up run in a much tougher race took out of her.
Detours flies fresh with three wins and a second from four first-up attempts. She can get in under the radar too like last Spring when she won first-up in the How Now Stakes at Caulfield on Underwood Stakes Day paying $8.50.
Emmalene comes down from Queensland off a solid first-up win and has shown in the past that she is a mare of above average ability. She's had her problems but appears to be back on track.
Locky's Selections
* Ever The Same is an early scratching
Current market
I've got a feeling this will be a race set up for the swoopers with Mrs Onassis, Satin Shoes, Altar, Karuta Queen, Miss Stellabelle and Gybe all likely to push forward. So I'll be looking away from them when making my selections here because I've got a feeling they may cut each other up in front.
I also find it hard to tip anything that finished behind Arinosa last time, despite the fact she will meet many of them worse at the weights. I felt she had Shamal Wind (1 kilo better off), the unlucky New Beginning (0.5kg), Lady's Angel (no difference) and Soft Sand (2kg) well covered.
Looking at other form races and the run of Dystopia when fourth in the Galaxy was super. I've just got a query on her second-up and have to wonder how much that first-up run in a much tougher race took out of her.
Detours flies fresh with three wins and a second from four first-up attempts. She can get in under the radar too like last Spring when she won first-up in the How Now Stakes at Caulfield on Underwood Stakes Day paying $8.50.
Emmalene comes down from Queensland off a solid first-up win and has shown in the past that she is a mare of above average ability. She's had her problems but appears to be back on track.
Locky's Selections
9 Detours
5 Arinosa
4 Dystopia
4 Dystopia
Other bets
Tatra (Race 2 No. 1) will be much better back to 1600m and given that Toydini is likely to start pretty short given all the hype I'm happy to take him on at the level weights. Should get about $5.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Who put this Norwegian flag here?
- Robert Falcon Scott, South Pole, 17 January 1912
- Robert Falcon Scott, South Pole, 17 January 1912
No comments:
Post a Comment