It seems like every week I kick off this column with Black Caviar or something Black Caviar related. Obviosuly no difference this week with the mighty mare officially retired on Wednesday.
As yet there's no news on which stallion she will meet with in the breeding barn, but her fans will get one last chance to catch a glimpse of her when she parades at Caulfield this weekend after Race 4. Entry is free.
I won't rehash her life story because it's been done ad nauseum in the press over the last two days but I will share an interesting stat:
Such was her dominance that a $1 win bet at her first start rolled over into her next 24 starts would have netted less than $340.
Meanwhile her half brother All Too Hard will stand at Vinery Stud this Spring for a first season fee of $66,000. He'll have just one more start in this country in the All Aged Stakes next weekend ahead of a possible tilt at Royal Ascot in June.
The TAB faces a massive payout if the short-priced favourite wins tomorrow's Doncaster Mile. Media manager Glenn Munsie has stated "“Pierro winning is a seven-figure loser for us.” One punter took a $10,0000 double Miracles Of Life to win the Blue Diamond into Pierro to win the Doncaster at $49. There have also been substantial doubles with Golden Slipper winner Overreach.
Trainer Murray Baker has confirmed It's A Dundeel will push on to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes next weekend. Meantime connections of King Mufhasa have accepted an invitation to contest the Champions Mile in Hong Kong on May 5.
Group One-winning jockey Nikita McLean has been outed for five months after pleading guilty to punching her sister, apprentice Jackie Berriman, after a long-running family row came to a head in the female jockeys room at Hamilton last Sunday. McLean won the Emirates Stakes in 2007 on 100-1 outsider Tears I Cry.
But for mine the best racing story this week was a video I found on YouTube featuring possibly the best thing beaten you've ever seen. If you've not already seen the below run by Spicer Cub at Pimlico in the U.S. then check it out now.
LOOKING BACK
Rosehill
Australian Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
1 It's A Dundeel (1st) $1.40 win / $1.60 place
3 Phillipi (2nd) $1.30 place
9 High Shot (8th)
Exacta 1-3 $2.40
Any 2 1-3 $1.80
T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Locky's Selections
3 Rain Affair (4th)
10 Sea Siren (5th)
Sires Produce Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 2-y-o set weights)
Scandiva looked to have it shot to bits at any old price before Guelph chimed in. Both runs were good. The favourite was OK too (unless you took the odds-on) because she obviously didn't back up from the Golden Slipper run and she sat on a pretty solid tempo up front. Either that or she's just a very good 1000m-1200m horse. Time will tell.
Locky's Selections
Scandiva looked to have it shot to bits at any old price before Guelph chimed in. Both runs were good. The favourite was OK too (unless you took the odds-on) because she obviously didn't back up from the Golden Slipper run and she sat on a pretty solid tempo up front. Either that or she's just a very good 1000m-1200m horse. Time will tell.
Locky's Selections
7 Overreach (3rd) $1.00 place
8 Guelph (1st) $7.90 win / $1.90 place
13 Florid Affair (9th)
Chairman's Quality (Group 2, 2600m, quality handicap)
Locky's Selections
11 Hathras (6th)
2 Julienas (12th)
2 Julienas (12th)
1 Mourayan (4th)
Sapphire Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)
Arinosa continues to impress. That's seven wins from her last ten starts. Hard to make excuses for the rest because they were soundly beaten (four and a quarter lengths) and the bunched finish indicates that they are a fairly even lot with just two and a half lengths separating second and twelfth.
Locky's Selections
Arinosa continues to impress. That's seven wins from her last ten starts. Hard to make excuses for the rest because they were soundly beaten (four and a quarter lengths) and the bunched finish indicates that they are a fairly even lot with just two and a half lengths separating second and twelfth.
Locky's Selections
9 Detours (5th)
5 Arinosa (1st) $4.50 win / $2.10 place
4 Dystopia (4th)
Other bets
Last week I wrote:
Tatra (Race 2 No. 1) will be much better back to 1600m and given that Toydini is likely to start pretty short given all the hype I'm happy to take him on at the level weights. Should get about $5. 5th. Had every possible hope. Disappointing.
LOOKING FORWARD
Randwick
*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 5 and it isn't likely to improve. In fact with a forecast of widespread showers (heavy at times) for tonight and tomorrow we could be looking at a Slow 6 or worse ***
The in form trainers in the last three weeks have been Guy Walter and Bjorn Baker. Walter has had 15 winners and 12 placegetters from 45 runners. (Win 33.33% / Place 60%). Baker has been almost as impressive with six wins from 24 starters at a strike rate of one in four.
G Walter - Eucumbene, Skateboard, Zuccotto, Appearance, Streama, Brightest
B Baker - Fuerza, Cantonese
Damian Browne has the best strike rate of any jockey in the country in the last 21 days with 10 wins and six placings from 23 rides (Win 43.5% / Place 69.5%). Vinnie Colgan has six from 22 (27.3%) and Blake Shinn 14 from 56 (25%).
D Browne - Solzhenitsyn
V Colgan - Habibi
B Shinn - Ideal Guide, Zuccotto, Secret Admier
Gai Waterhouse and Nash Rawiller always tend to bob up at this time of year when we return to headquarters and they've been relatively quiet of late so beware.
G Waterhouse - Major Conquest, Aztec Rose, Hydro, Pierro, Under The Sun
N Rawiller - Studio, Major Conquest, Hydro, Hurrara, Kelinni, Royal Descent, Pierro
Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, open handicap)
So what about age and weight? Well coincidentally just like the favourites six of the last 14 winners were three-year-olds. In fact 14 of the last 30 winners were three-year-olds. That's almost half. Lightweights have been favoured too with 11 of the past 14 winners (and 22 of the last 30) carrying 54.5kg or less.
Nine of the last 11 winners had placed at their last start, six of those were winners. The majority of winners have come via the George Ryder Stakes (13 of 30) with four horses completing the double. In the last 19 years only two winners have paid more than $13.
So what does all that mean? Well Pierro is a deserved favourite and in all likelihood should win because he's drawn to get the run of the race in an event that looks devoid of any real speed. Gai Waterhouse has put the polish on seven Doncaster winners so he will be trained to the minute.
Norzita ticks all the boxes in terms of odds, weight, age and form but she'll need a little bit of Craig Williams magic from the wide gate.
Appearance and Streama have the services of in-form trainer Guy Walter. The former looks the best weighted runner in the race at just 0.5kg over the minimum despite being a three time Group 1 winner. The latter showed a glimpse of her old form last time out and she won't know herself with just 53.5kg, the lightest weight she has carried in some time. Her jockey Glen Boss has won this race five times.
Shoot Out was probably the run of the race in the George Ryder Stakes when he stormed home into third behind Pierro in a race where few made ground due to the fact that they walked the first half mile and then sprinted home. He's won four Group 1's over the mile, two of them at Randwick, and ran second in this race last year. He also meets Pierro much better at the weights than he did a fortnight ago.
Solzhenitsyn looked right in this until the rain came. His best runs have traditionally been three runs or further into his prep (13:8-0-2) and I was prepared to overlook his last start failure due to his poor second-up record (just one win from seven attempts) but he runs like wet paint on affected going so I'll be looking for others.
Of the rest Ethiopia is the dark horse. He goes into this fresh but he is a horse of some ability. Happy Trails beat Green Moon in a Group 2 1600m w-f-a race third run in last preparation, Sacred Falls isn't hopeless with a second to It's A Dundeel last start and Lightinthenite is drawn to get a good run close to the speed.
If you're going wide in your exotics you could make a case for quite a few but unfortunately I only get to pick three.
14 Norzita
2 Pierro
11 Appearance
Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
There have been a few blowouts in recent years but still 12 of the last 16 winners have paid $8.50 or less, although only five started favourite.
I'm leaning towards the Kiwis here because I don't think we'll look back on this crop of three-year-old Australian fillies in years to come and think it was a vintage year. Habibi wasn't suited last start by a five week break between runs and a drop from 2400m to 2000m but whilst safely held her best work was her last 200m.
If I like Habibi I have to have Longport in there somewhere. Let's face it, take Norzita out of the Vinery and this filly beats Habibi by almost three lengths and the rest of them by nearly six. Yet she's likely to start around $6? Curiouser and curiouser.
More Than Sacred's last two runs across the ditch have also suggested she'll eat up the mile and a half because she was headed both times but fought back to win.
Dear Demi is good enough to win this on her best form but she is nowhere near her best form at the moment. Gondokoro is a typical Pat Carey Zabeel with a sense of timing but as previously mentioned she was safley held in the Vinery. Summerbliss was unlucky in the same race but again finished well astern and I'm avoiding Royal Descent because this race is an afterthought, she's coming off a tough run with a big weight and I think the Adrian Knox form is a tier below.
Locky's Selections
3 Longport
5 More Than Sacred
Other bets
Everage (Race 2 No. 1) has two wins and three seconds from five starts. Both victories were on heavy ground and amongst her placings were seconds to Overreach in the Widden Stakes and Safeguard in last Saturday's Kindergarten Stakes when she looked home. The presence of the Waterhouse trained Major Conquest and Darley's Scrutiny should see us get about $3.50.
I could also entertain Brightest (Race 9 No. 12) on an each-way basis at the $15 mark. Two wins and a second from three second-up runs and is in the hands of form trainer Guy Walter.
Scream Machine (Race 6 No. 11) is finally getting to a trip that suits and provided he can get a solid tempo in front he should be storming home. Two wins and a third from three tries at 2000m. Keen to have a nibble each-way at the $11.
Scream Machine (Race 6 No. 11) is finally getting to a trip that suits and provided he can get a solid tempo in front he should be storming home. Two wins and a third from three tries at 2000m. Keen to have a nibble each-way at the $11.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Now where did I put the soap?
- Pontius Pilate, Judaea, 33 A.D.
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