What a crackerjack weekend for racing fans. The Melbourne carnival culminates at Flemington with the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) and Newmarket Handicap (1200m) backed up by seven other races, all of which are either Group or Listed status.
In Sydney we see the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) and three other black type races, as well as exhibition gallops featuring Gai Waterhouse's More Joyous, Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente and Carlton House, the first horse owned by Queen Elizabeth II to be permanently trained in Australia.
Across the ditch Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) winner Ocean Park goes around in the Group 1 New Zealand Stakes (2000m) at Ellerslie. The event is scheduled to jump at 3.31pm (AEDT).
In WA there's three Listed races at Ascot tomorrow and another two the following day at Bunbury, while the ACT also has feature racing on Sunday with the highlight being the Listed Black Opal Stakes (1200m).
And on Monday our focus shifts to SA for the running of the Group 2 Adelaide Cup (3200m).
I think when that's all done and dusted I'm going to need a good lie down.
LOOKING BACK
Starting with my tips from last weekend and it was a bit hit-and-miss. I tipped All Too Hard on top so no real surprise that connections scratched him pre-race because he couldn't carry me and win. I could have stopped Phar Lap. In fact I could probably stop a war. My other two selections High Shot and Albrecht were disappointing although the latter was flattened early in the race by eventual winner Ferlax, an incident that saw jockey Stephen Baster suspended.
I tipped two of the first three in the Group 3 Frances Tressady (1400m) but I didn't have the winner (I don't think many people did) and my number one selection ran unplaced, although it was always going to be hard coming from last in a slowly run race. The 33.35 sectional for the final 600m was the fastest of the day for any race run on the circle.
In the only other Melbourne race I dissected I had Launay as my best bet and he duly saluted. $5.50 was on offer when my tips went up.
Meanwhile in Sydney I tipped the quinella (albeit in the wrong order) in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m). For a few strides I thought I may have produced a masterstroke in tipping Rebel Dane over the well-tried Pierro, but the champ showed all his fighting qualities to hang on in a close finish despite being dead on his feet the last 50 metres. My third pick Mulaazem made all the running out in front before folding faster than Wonder Woman on ironing day.
I made Charlie Boy my selection in the Group 2 Silver Slipper (1100m) and after missing the start he charged home for third on day when not many horses made ground from back in the field. I'll be sticking with him going forward because he attacked the line the way I attack an open bar. My other two selections All The Talk and Kuroshio lost any chance they had when they attacked each other in front. In hindsight the formers effort to hang on for fourth was pretty good.
Lastly in the Group 3 Millie Fox (1300m) my top selection Red Tracer started a short priced favourite and did win, but only just. And as usual, my top three finished first, third and fourth.
In news during the week jockey Jackie Berriman has been rapped over the knuckles and her mount Mybenz has been disqualified after the apprentice hoop was allowed to claim 1.5kg in a non-claiming race at Ballarat last week. Stewards have also launched an inquiry into themselves. Apparently they plan to give themselves a good talking to and have a few stern words with themselves.
In other happenings Brett Prebble has picked up the ride on surprise Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) winner Ferlax. His next start will be the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) tomorrow week. In all likelihood he will bump into boom colt Pierro, who will be without the services of regular rider Nash Rawiller after he was suspended for careless riding at Newcastle on Wednesday.
Finally Doncaster weights have been released and More Joyous will have to set a weight carrying record for a mare if she is to defend her crown. Gai Waterhouse's eight-time Group 1 winning mare has been allocated the topweight of 59.5kg, two kilos more than she carried last year. Other notables to feature at the top end of the weight scale are Manighar (58kg), last year's runner-up Shoot Out (57kg) and star three-year-olds Pierro and All Too Hard (both 56kg), although the latter will not run according to Team Hawkes.
LOOKING FORWARD
Flemington
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
The All Too Hard form line is hard to go past as his two wins against older horses this Autumn have been dominant. Green Moon did enough first-up to show to me that he has come back in good order. He jumps straight to the 2000m second-up but that shouldn't be a concern as he has residual fitness from his Spring campaign. His last three starts at Flemington have resulted in wins in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m), Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).
Glass Harmonium went super first-up and has won a Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track, distance and under w-f-a conditions. On that occasion he beat the likes of Southern Speed, Lights of Heaven, Rekindled Interest, Sincero and Efficient.
Mr Moet's two runs in Melbourne have been great and he will appreciate getting into a race with a genuine tempo after being caught flat-footed in his last two outings when the frontrunners sprinted at the end of slowly run races.
Mawingo looked awesome first-up but was a shade disappointing last time out but it may pay to forgive that run. Sometimes stayers can be a little flat second-up, particularly after putting in barnstorming performances first run back from a spell.
The three-year-olds Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool get in well at the weights and have returned in good nick following their Spring campaigns, however since this race was changed to w-f-a in 1979 (excluding the years 1982-86) only two three-year-olds have won. Their names were Dulcify and Saintly. Neither of these two are as good as either of those two but having said that, this is not a vintage Australian Cup field.
NOTE - Eclair Surprise is an early scratching.
The All Too Hard form line is hard to go past as his two wins against older horses this Autumn have been dominant. Green Moon did enough first-up to show to me that he has come back in good order. He jumps straight to the 2000m second-up but that shouldn't be a concern as he has residual fitness from his Spring campaign. His last three starts at Flemington have resulted in wins in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m), Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).
Glass Harmonium went super first-up and has won a Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track, distance and under w-f-a conditions. On that occasion he beat the likes of Southern Speed, Lights of Heaven, Rekindled Interest, Sincero and Efficient.
Mr Moet's two runs in Melbourne have been great and he will appreciate getting into a race with a genuine tempo after being caught flat-footed in his last two outings when the frontrunners sprinted at the end of slowly run races.
Mawingo looked awesome first-up but was a shade disappointing last time out but it may pay to forgive that run. Sometimes stayers can be a little flat second-up, particularly after putting in barnstorming performances first run back from a spell.
The three-year-olds Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool get in well at the weights and have returned in good nick following their Spring campaigns, however since this race was changed to w-f-a in 1979 (excluding the years 1982-86) only two three-year-olds have won. Their names were Dulcify and Saintly. Neither of these two are as good as either of those two but having said that, this is not a vintage Australian Cup field.
NOTE - Eclair Surprise is an early scratching.
Locky's Selections
4 Mr Moet
1 Green Moon
3 Glass Harmonium
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, Handicap)
Current market
Last year Black Caviar brained Hay List, Buffering, Foxwedge and Phelan Ready in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) and that quartet subsequently came out and ran the First Four in the Newmarket. For that reason I will be tipping Moment of Change on top. The fact that six of the last seven winners have carried 56kg or more and five of the last seven winners have paid $5.50 or less also helped me make that decision. I think Barakey is the only danger.
The Queenslander Spirit of Boom was the best run in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) for mine and he handles the Flemington staright although he has never won at the track. Last Spring he ran third in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes (1200m) and second in the Group 2 Yellowglen (formerly Salinger) Stakes (1200m) at this course and distance.
Three-year-old and fellow Queenslander Better Than Ready gets in with no weight and has won five from eight, including a pointless win over older horses last start when he carried weight and a win in the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes (1200m) at Randwick last October when he set a track record.
Fontelina trialled well and Ortensia may improve back on a straight track, while Luckygray and Shamexpress will have their admirers.
Last year Black Caviar brained Hay List, Buffering, Foxwedge and Phelan Ready in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) and that quartet subsequently came out and ran the First Four in the Newmarket. For that reason I will be tipping Moment of Change on top. The fact that six of the last seven winners have carried 56kg or more and five of the last seven winners have paid $5.50 or less also helped me make that decision. I think Barakey is the only danger.
The Queenslander Spirit of Boom was the best run in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) for mine and he handles the Flemington staright although he has never won at the track. Last Spring he ran third in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes (1200m) and second in the Group 2 Yellowglen (formerly Salinger) Stakes (1200m) at this course and distance.
Three-year-old and fellow Queenslander Better Than Ready gets in with no weight and has won five from eight, including a pointless win over older horses last start when he carried weight and a win in the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes (1200m) at Randwick last October when he set a track record.
Fontelina trialled well and Ortensia may improve back on a straight track, while Luckygray and Shamexpress will have their admirers.
2 Moment of Change
5 Barakey
6 Spirit of Boom
Blamey Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, set weights plus penalties)
Current market
This is an interesting race. Puissance de Lune was the name on everyone's lips at the end of the Spring after his demolition job in the Group 2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2500m) on the final day of the carnival. On paper the mile here would appear to be short of his best distance but connections are keen to get a penalty to ensure he is not balloted out of the Cups races later this year. To earn that he needs to win so expect him to be very forward in his preparation.
Maluckyday was the one who had the big, red, flashing light on him last start when he flashed home into fifth behind All Too Hard in the unsuitably short Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m). He was the only runner to make ground from back in the field after they walked early and anyone who watched the race couldn't have missed the run. Hell, even Stevie Wonder saw the run.
Wall Street also has form around the same horse and gets a nine kilo swing in the weights on Dany The Fox who beat him by less than two lengths in the Listed Kilmore Cup (1600m) last start.
Callanish has had two runs back this prep so he should be at peak fitness and ready to add to his imposing record of eight wins and a third from 10 starts.
Willy Jimmy is not totally hopeless either. His last start fourth in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes on a heavy track was full of merit as he came through the bad ground on the inside rather than scouting wide on the turn and he has never won on 11 starts on affected ground.
This is an interesting race. Puissance de Lune was the name on everyone's lips at the end of the Spring after his demolition job in the Group 2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2500m) on the final day of the carnival. On paper the mile here would appear to be short of his best distance but connections are keen to get a penalty to ensure he is not balloted out of the Cups races later this year. To earn that he needs to win so expect him to be very forward in his preparation.
Maluckyday was the one who had the big, red, flashing light on him last start when he flashed home into fifth behind All Too Hard in the unsuitably short Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m). He was the only runner to make ground from back in the field after they walked early and anyone who watched the race couldn't have missed the run. Hell, even Stevie Wonder saw the run.
Wall Street also has form around the same horse and gets a nine kilo swing in the weights on Dany The Fox who beat him by less than two lengths in the Listed Kilmore Cup (1600m) last start.
Callanish has had two runs back this prep so he should be at peak fitness and ready to add to his imposing record of eight wins and a third from 10 starts.
Willy Jimmy is not totally hopeless either. His last start fourth in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes on a heavy track was full of merit as he came through the bad ground on the inside rather than scouting wide on the turn and he has never won on 11 starts on affected ground.
8 Maluckyday
1 Puissance de Lune
7 Wall Street
Kewney Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Current market
Norzita. She just wins. The best filly in the race by a country mile and she meets them at level weights. She's trained by this guy called Bart something-or-other who apparently goes alright on this particular day, having won eight Newmarkets and 13 Australian Cups. Daylight second. The others would want to start running now or they won't be able to see her backside without the Hubble Telescope. Now watch her get beat. Like I said, I could stop a train.
Norzita. She just wins. The best filly in the race by a country mile and she meets them at level weights. She's trained by this guy called Bart something-or-other who apparently goes alright on this particular day, having won eight Newmarkets and 13 Australian Cups. Daylight second. The others would want to start running now or they won't be able to see her backside without the Hubble Telescope. Now watch her get beat. Like I said, I could stop a train.
1 Norzita
4 Alzora
10 Petite Diablesse
There is also another Group 2 race, two Group 3 and two Listed events meaning every single event on the nine race card is a black type race. It's no secret I am a huge fan of Fawkner (Race 9 No. 1) and despite being first-up and carrying 60kg he should be too good for this lot. I thought Chase The Rainbow was the only danger and now that he has come out I'm even more confident..
Warwick Farm
Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)
Current market
It's hard to know what to do here. The traditional lead-up races for this event have been held on bog tracks with all the recent rain so many horses haven't had the hit-outs they would have liked and the form of some runners may be misleading as they just didn't go a yard in the heavy going. Shoot Out won this race last year and won the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m) first-up last Spring. Manighar is another one capable of running a big race first-up over a mile and Silent Achiever won the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m) second-up last Spring. Her effort first-up in NZ to be beaten a lip over 1400m lumping a 61kg impost was massive, giving the eventual winner 6kg. King Mufhasa is rock hard fit and has the All Too Hard form line with a fifth in the Group 1 Orr Stakes (1400m) when beaten less than a length and a half and a last start third in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m). You could probably make a case for a few others but you can't tip them all.
It's hard to know what to do here. The traditional lead-up races for this event have been held on bog tracks with all the recent rain so many horses haven't had the hit-outs they would have liked and the form of some runners may be misleading as they just didn't go a yard in the heavy going. Shoot Out won this race last year and won the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m) first-up last Spring. Manighar is another one capable of running a big race first-up over a mile and Silent Achiever won the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m) second-up last Spring. Her effort first-up in NZ to be beaten a lip over 1400m lumping a 61kg impost was massive, giving the eventual winner 6kg. King Mufhasa is rock hard fit and has the All Too Hard form line with a fifth in the Group 1 Orr Stakes (1400m) when beaten less than a length and a half and a last start third in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m). You could probably make a case for a few others but you can't tip them all.
13 Silent Achiever
3 Shoot Out
1 Manighar
Surround Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Benetta has strung together three impressive victories and whilst this is her biggest test to date she gives every appearance she is up to this level. Dear Demi was superb first-up after her gruelling Spring campaign and did win second-up at 1400m last preparation. Many of the horses who finished down the track behind these two in the Group 2 Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) three weeks ago are going around again (Driefontein, Longport, Jade Marauder, Brave Soul) and it's hard to see them turning the tables, although Longport did win her only previous second-up start and has one start at the Warwick Farm 1400m for one win.
Locky's Selections3 Benetta
2 Dear Demi
4 Longport
Also on the program is the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup (1300m) and the Listed Wiggle Stakes (1400m). I don't want to bet in the former because eight of the 10 runners are first-up, but I'm happy to back Streama (Race 3 No. 1) in the latter. When I looked at acceptances I had her on top ahead of Steps In Time but was amazed to find bookies had the market the other way so I'm more than happy to step into the $3.50 on offer. She went super first-up against all comers on an unsuitable heavy track and tomorrow, back to her own sex and just three kilos over the minimum weight, she does look well placed.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Trust me Bill. What could possibly go wrong?
- Monica Lewinsky, Oval Office, 1995
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