All attention turns to Sydney this week with the Melbourne Carnival at an end, with the highlight being the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) to be run at Warwick Farm due to the as yet unfinished redevelopment of Randwick racecourse. We also see the return of Hay List in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) and two important Golden Slipper lead-up races.
But before that program even gets underway we have the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley tonight featuring several runners who caught the eye in the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) at Flemington two weeks ago.
Couple those two meetings with a stand alone metropolitan raceday at Bendigo with no less than four races worth $100,000+ and a strong Gold Coast metro meeting in Queensland and even I should be able to find at least one winner.
LOOKING BACK
The Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) was a funny old race. I had Glass Harmonium in my top three to try and get a bit of value in the trifecta but he blew any chance he had when he set a cracking pace in front. Yet he still managed to hold on for fifth, so I think any horse that couldn't get by him has no excuses. My top selection Mr Moet falls into that category, he was just behind Glass Harmonium after getting well back but the fact that Tanby, who I regard as a staying handicapper, was able to blow past him and finish third has to be a concern. Green Moon was the other one in my top three and he may have been the victim of sitting just behind a hot speed and going to the 2000m second-up. Or he may just not have been up to it because the three-year-olds who ran the quinella, Super Cool and Fiveandahalfstar, gave him windburn at the furlong when they blew past him like he was tied to a hitching post.
As usual I managed to stop a few short priced favourites. Punters - I'm sorry. Bookies - you're welcome.
Moment of Change ended up leading by default in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and was brave in defeat, only getting mowed down in the final bounds to get beaten a whisker by Shamexpress after conceding the colt five kilos. (The form guide will say six kilos but Craig Newitt carried one kilo over at 51.5kg.) Barakey has to be forgiven as he fractured his knee during the race and will miss at least six months. My other selection Spirit of Boom was disappointing on face value, but jockey Brett Prebble reported post-race that he never relaxed at any stage and fought the bridle pretty much the whole way down the straight.
Norzita was another at a skinny quote that I managed to put the brakes on and I still can't believe she got rolled in the Group 2 Kewney Stakes (1600m). I could not have had enough on her at the 400m mark and I don't think anyone could have predicted Flying Snitzel would produce that sort of finishing burst. My other two tips Alzora and Petite Diablesse finished fourth and fifth respectively and I think it may pay to follow the former going forward because I think with maturity she could develop into a handy staying type.
Turning attention to Sydney and I did the same thing there in the Group 2 Surround Stakes (1400m). Top pick (and another short-priced favourite) Benetta did not run a drum, but second pick Dear Demi won and third selection Longport ran third (at $14 no less, it paid $4.50 the place and the Any 2 paid nearly $12). Benetta may simply be a 1200m horse or she may have had enough, it's been a long prep including a trip to Queensland so we'll just have to wait and see if she runs again this time in.
Lastly whilst I diid have eventual winner Shoot Out in my top three for the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), you guessed it, I didn't have him on top and the mare I did, Silent Achiever finished, you guessed it, fourth! How many times have I done that now? My other tip Manighar beat only one runner home and, although first-up since September and going straight to the mile, I expected him to show a little more in the run to the line. As I said in my preview last week though it was always going to be a hard race to tip in with wet tracks hindering the lead-ups of so many runners and making the form almost worthless. Who would have thought six weeks ago that the likes of Monton, Havana Rey and Alma's Fury would have been competitive in a Group 1 weight-for-age race?
Meanwhile it's been a busy week in racing news.
Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) winner Woorim has been retired after trainer Robert Heathcote conceded he could not overcome an ongoing battle with fractured hooves.
Glyn Schofield will still take the ride on Hay List this weekend despite aggravating an old lower back injury on Wednesday at Canterbury which saw him stood down following the third race.
Racing Victoria has announced that this year's Zipping Classic meeting will be run at Caulfield due to the renovations planned for the track at Sandown.
Lastly Pierro will be ridden by Jim Cassidy at his next start in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) at Rosehill next weekend, with regular rider Nash Rawiller stating he will honour his committment to More Joyous who is attempting to win the race for the third year in succession.
LOOKING FORWARD
Warwick Farm
Randwick Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
2006 Hotel Grand ($7)
2007 Mentality ($2.75)
2008 Weekend Hussler ($1.65)
2009 Metal Bender ($21)
2010 Shoot Out ($3)
2011 Ilovethiscity ($1.90)
2012 Mosheen ($4.20)
So only one winner has paid more than $7 and we probably had underestimated Metal Bender to that stage of his career because he would go on to win the Rosehill Guineas, a Doomben Cup and a George Ryder Stakes amongst other feature races during a career frustrated by injury.
That points to the likes of Rebel Dane and Proisir and I'll stick with the former after tipping him last start when a close second behind star colt Pierro in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) two weeks ago.
Proisir lost no admirers in that race when first-up and he should strip fitter with a run under his belt. The eye catching run in the race was It's A Dundeel who could muster no early speed but turned in a scintillating final 100m to finish on the heels of the placegetters. It's interesting to note that the blinkers go on him tomorrow so perhaps they will sharpen him up and allow him to race a bit more handy.
Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) winner Ferlax has done nothing wrong with four wins from as many starts but I just fear that form may be a grade below the aforementioned three.
The Chris Waller pair Sacred Falls and Tougher Than Ever came over from NZ with big wraps and it would be no surprise to see them improve dramatically and if you're looking for roughies for your exotics the Darley trio are in the mix. Tatra will benefit from a return to a firm track, Proverb ran on strongly from well back behind Pierro last start and Solemn will only improve the further he steps up in distance.
I've left out High Shot too who I have tipped at his last two starts so now he is a moral.
Locky's Selections
7 Rebel Dane
3 Proisir
1 It's A Dundeel
Challenge Stakes (Group 2, 1000m, w-f-a)
Snitzerland won her first four starts last prep and looks well in this at the weight-for-age scale. She also trialled like a bomb in the lead-up to this when she easily accounted for stablemate Mrs Onassis who would subsequently go on to win the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m).
Tiger Tees is building an imposing record and could potentially be a Group 1 horse in the making. He's won nine of 16 career starts and has won three from four first-up. Decision Time is another with a great record fresh (also three from four) but the worry is he hasn't appeared on a racetrack for nearly a year and a half. Which coincidentally is the last time I backed a winner.
Howmuchdoyouloveme showed during the Spring Carnival that he is above average with an effortless win in the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint (1100m) on Caulfield Cup day and you'd have to say Fire Thunderbolt ($35) is over the odds when you consider he ran Snitzerland to a half neck first-up last preparation and she is likely to start a clear second elect.
I can't dismiss Golden Archer either after his last start, first-up performance when third behind champion mare Black Caviar and subsequent (and unlucky) Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) runner-up Moment of Change.
The last two winners of the Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) are also going around in Temple of Boom and Atomic Force.
Locky's Selections
1 Hay List
11 Snitzerland
6 Golden Archer
Skyline Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 2-y-o colts & geldings set weights)
All The Talk did well to hold on for fourth last start after setting a suicidal pace in front with Kuroshio. Fuerza is yet to win but has two seconds to his name. The first was behind stablemate Twighlight Royale who went on to claim the Group 2 VRC Sires Produce (1400m) last weekend and the second was behind Marseille Roulette in the Inglis Classic (1200m) at Rosehill in January.
Dothraki failed on debut but was well tried so obviously the stable rated him highly, a reputation he went a long way towards justifying when beating the highly regarded Aussies Love Sport at his only other appearance on a racetrack.
It's hard to fault the form of Good Job Bro who has had three starts for a win and two seconds, one of those behind the talented Guelph, but he may have been flattered last start by the heavy track that quite a few runners just didn't handle.
Octane Flyer could also be entertained in exotic betting because I'm pretty sure Queensland trainer Kelly Schweida didn't bring him all the way to Sydney for the scenery.
Locky's Selections
2 Fuerza
5 Dothraki
Sweet Embrace Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, 2-y-o fillies set weights)
I don't think any of these girls will be playing a part in Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m) either, but it will be an interesting contest if just to see the second appearance of More Joyous little sister Most Joyful. Her form from her only start doesn't look promising (fifth beaten more than nine lengths) but that was the day that Overreach towelled them to win by six lengths.
Assail will likely start favourite but looking at the gear changes in the form guide I find it hard to tip a horse on top that's had more people tinkering with her shoes than Imelda Marcos.
Greytfilly is having her first start for the Waterhouse yard after being transferred from the stables of leading Brisbane trainer Rob Heathcote. We know how good Gai is at putting the polish on these juveniles so she can't be dismissed lightly. It may pay to forgive the last start failure of Romantic Moon on a bog track and instead look back to her debut win when she brained them at Gosford back in December. Vocalise may not have beaten much at his only start but all you can do is win, and I'm not brave enough to put the biro through Bjorn Baker's Tropical Force just yet because the stable is flying. A tricky little race.
Locky's Selections
2 Calming Influence
1 Assail
8 Most Joyful
There are also four Listed races meaning every single event on the eight race card is a black type race. Choice Words (Race 5 No. 6) chased home Steps In Time and Red Tracer last start and both have since won, and you should be able to get around $3.50 so she is backable. I also like Lampedusa (Race 3 No. 7) on an each-way basis at about $6. Trainer Peter Moody holds this gelding in high esteem and is aiming him at the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.
Moonee Valley
Alister Clark Stakes (Group 2, 2040m, 3-y-o set weights)
When I first watched the replay of that race I thought the best runs were that of Phillipi followed by Hvasstan. The former did not get clear running room until it was all over whereas the latter had an unimpeded run from the top of the straight. Having said that, his ability to come from near enough to last on the turn and run down all but two runners was remarkable, given the fact that it was a leader dominated race.
What worries me though is this small field. Will the race be genuinely run? Or will the lack of any real pace turn it into a tactical affair? If so, Sheer Talent is the one who has shown he can race handy and he might be able to pinch a break on them and be too hard to run down given the short run home at Moonee Valley.
Locky's Selections
2 Sheer Talent
3 Phillipi
1 Hvasstan
There'll be an interesting runner at Bendigo tomorrow too with Tony McEvoy set to run Iconic ($9) in the $250,000 Gold Rush (1000m) for two-year-olds. He is closely related to Black Caviar being by the same sire (Bel Esprit) out of Danavia, who is a half-sister to the mighty mare's dam Helsinge.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
You're a good friend Brutus. I know you've always got my back.
- Julius Caesar, Rome, 44 B.C.
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