Black Caviar attempts to make it 24 from 24 when she lines up tonight in the Wlliam Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley. A win would make it Group 1 victory number 14, equalling the record of the great Kingston Town.
The race will be the last on the card, something I feel race clubs should do more often. I mean when you go to a rock concert, they don't put the support act on after the main event, do they? In another smart move it has been co-ordinated with the AFL to take place during the half-time break so fans can watch both.
While that will be the major focus this week, the kick-off of the Sydney Autumn Carnival at Rosehill is nothing to be sneezed at with three Group 1 features including the much anticipated clash of stablemates More Joyous and Pierro in the Canterbury Stakes. The weight-for-age middle distance horses slug it out in the Ranvet Stakes and the girls do battle in the Coolmore Classic, while the race is on to qualify for next month's Golden Slipper with the juveniles contesting the Reisling Stakes and Todman Stakes.
Let's just hope more people turn out to Rosehill tomorrow than went to Warwick Farm last weekend because that crowd was an embarrassment for a Group 1 meeting in Sydney. I've had more people in bed.
* Michael Rodd was suspended for causing interference when his mount Sheer Talent shifted in leaving the straight the first time. He will miss the ride on Golden Slipper second favourite Villa Verde tomorrow as a result. His replacement will be Hugh Bowman but trainer Shaun Dwyer has assured Rodd it is a one-off and he will be back on next start.
Unfortunately that was when things started to go downhill. My each way selection in Race 3 Lampedusa struggled into fifth, and then not one of my top three selections in the Sweet Embrace Stakes could finish better than fifth.
2 Calming Influence - (5th)
Meanwhile it's been another busy week in racing news.
The news isn't so good for fellow jock Nash Rawiller who has been rubbed out by the stipes again. He'll miss the Rosehill Guineas meeting next weekend after being charged with careless riding for his ride aboard Laser Hawk (below right) when second in Wednesday's Newcastle Newmarket. It was his first day back in the saddle following a five-meeting suspension. He does however remain free to ride this weekend.
Craig Newitt and Nicholas Hall will also be taking enforced holidays after incurring the wrath of the stewards.
Meantime my thoughts go out to jockey Jeff Lloyd and his family and friends after the former South African jockey suffered a stroke last week. The good news is he is out of ICU and is said to be in good spirits. I'm sure I speak for all in the racing game Jeff when I wish you the speediest of recoveries.
And on that note, it's time to see if we can find some winners on a busy weekend ahead.
William Reid Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
The race will be the last on the card, something I feel race clubs should do more often. I mean when you go to a rock concert, they don't put the support act on after the main event, do they? In another smart move it has been co-ordinated with the AFL to take place during the half-time break so fans can watch both.
While that will be the major focus this week, the kick-off of the Sydney Autumn Carnival at Rosehill is nothing to be sneezed at with three Group 1 features including the much anticipated clash of stablemates More Joyous and Pierro in the Canterbury Stakes. The weight-for-age middle distance horses slug it out in the Ranvet Stakes and the girls do battle in the Coolmore Classic, while the race is on to qualify for next month's Golden Slipper with the juveniles contesting the Reisling Stakes and Todman Stakes.
Let's just hope more people turn out to Rosehill tomorrow than went to Warwick Farm last weekend because that crowd was an embarrassment for a Group 1 meeting in Sydney. I've had more people in bed.
LOOKING BACK
Starting on Friday night and the best three horses ran the trifecta in the Alister Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley, just not in the order I predicted. Hvasstan sat much closer than he did in the Australian Guineas whereas Phillipi went back to last and had to circle the field and that made all the difference. Sheer Talent battled on gamely after sitting on a hot speed to be beaten a tick over a length. The pacemaker he shared the lead with finished second last.
Locky's Selections
2 Sheer Talent - (3rd)
3 Phillipi - (2nd)
1 Hvasstan (1st)
* Michael Rodd was suspended for causing interference when his mount Sheer Talent shifted in leaving the straight the first time. He will miss the ride on Golden Slipper second favourite Villa Verde tomorrow as a result. His replacement will be Hugh Bowman but trainer Shaun Dwyer has assured Rodd it is a one-off and he will be back on next start.
First cab off the rank on Saturday was my "horse to follow" Iconic in the Gold Rush for two-year-olds at Bendigo. The Tony McEvoy trained gelding, who is closely related to Black Caviar, duly saluted at $5.50.
My good tipping form continued when top selection All The Talk saluted at $4.80 in the Skyline Stakes, leading all the way to produce an impressive three and a half length win. I just missed the trifecta too with my top three once again running first, third and fourth. The Any 2 paid $7.50. Not a bad effort considering I left the favourite Good Job Bro out of my top three.
2 Fuerza - (4th)
Locky's Selections
3 All The Talk - (1st)
5 Dothraki - (3rd)
Unfortunately that was when things started to go downhill. My each way selection in Race 3 Lampedusa struggled into fifth, and then not one of my top three selections in the Sweet Embrace Stakes could finish better than fifth.
Locky's Selections
2 Calming Influence - (5th)
1 Assail - (6th)
8 Most Joyful - (7th)
Then my good thing of the day Choice Words went under as favourite in Race 5.
I was back to my old tricks in the Randwick Guineas, tipping three of the first four. Once again it proved to be a good horses race and you wouldn't think the ones that finished down the track behind It's A Dundeel and Proisir could possibly turn the tables on that duo anytime soon. As I predicted Tatra benefitted from a return to a firm surface. Favourite Rebel Dane disappointed but it may be that he just doesn't see out the mile and Sacred Falls and Proverb ran on well without threatening and appear to be a level below the others. Australian Guineas winner Ferlax looked disappointing at first but he was injured during the race. The good news is he has bounced back quickly and trainer Jim Conlan says he will press on to the Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill in two weeks time.
Locky's Selections
7 Rebel Dane - (4th)
3 Proisir - (2nd)
1 It's A Dundeel - (1st)
It's not often you see a horse sit outside the lead in a race where they break a track record and still emerge victorious but that's exactly what Snitzerland did in her dominant win in the Challenge Stakes. She broke away from a a handy field on the turn and won as she liked. Second placegetter Decision Time showed he has lost none of his zest for racing despite a 500+ day lay-off and Hay List battled on well in his first start for nearly a year and is sure to strip fitter for the run.
Locky's Selections
1 Hay List - (4th)
11 Snitzerland - (1st)
6 Golden Archer - (11th)
* On a sad note Snitzerland's broodmare sire Fraar passed away this week aged 24. He is best remembered for his win in the 1993 Caulfield Cup.
Meanwhile it's been another busy week in racing news.
Team Hawkes has announced that All Too Hard will have just two more runs before retirement, providing everything goes to plan. He'll run in the All Aged Stakes at Randwick on April 27 before heading to Engalnd to contest the Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting.
Perennial Group 1 placegetter Buffering will resume two weeks earlier in the T.J. Smith Stakes. Leading Brisbane hoop Damian Browne takes the ride, replacing Hugh Bowman who's partnered the gelding in his last six starts.
Glencadam Gold will not race again this Autumn after two disappointing efforts this time in. Two-year-old Le Cordon Bleu, who showed promise with a close up third behind Whittington and Va Pensiero at his only run to date, has also been sent to the spelling paddock.
Jockey Corey Brown will begin a two month stint in Singapore in mid-May although he will be flying back to Brisbane on the weekends to compete in the Winter Carnival. Then in July he's off to France to try his luck there, again for two months.
Perennial Group 1 placegetter Buffering will resume two weeks earlier in the T.J. Smith Stakes. Leading Brisbane hoop Damian Browne takes the ride, replacing Hugh Bowman who's partnered the gelding in his last six starts.
Glencadam Gold will not race again this Autumn after two disappointing efforts this time in. Two-year-old Le Cordon Bleu, who showed promise with a close up third behind Whittington and Va Pensiero at his only run to date, has also been sent to the spelling paddock.
Jockey Corey Brown will begin a two month stint in Singapore in mid-May although he will be flying back to Brisbane on the weekends to compete in the Winter Carnival. Then in July he's off to France to try his luck there, again for two months.
The news isn't so good for fellow jock Nash Rawiller who has been rubbed out by the stipes again. He'll miss the Rosehill Guineas meeting next weekend after being charged with careless riding for his ride aboard Laser Hawk (below right) when second in Wednesday's Newcastle Newmarket. It was his first day back in the saddle following a five-meeting suspension. He does however remain free to ride this weekend.
Craig Newitt and Nicholas Hall will also be taking enforced holidays after incurring the wrath of the stewards.
Meantime my thoughts go out to jockey Jeff Lloyd and his family and friends after the former South African jockey suffered a stroke last week. The good news is he is out of ICU and is said to be in good spirits. I'm sure I speak for all in the racing game Jeff when I wish you the speediest of recoveries.
And on that note, it's time to see if we can find some winners on a busy weekend ahead.
LOOKING FORWARD
Moonee Valley
William Reid Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Current market
I hope Black Caviar wins. I don't want to be remembered as the guy who stopped the mighty mare. Fawkner is the next best horse in the race but may need more ground. Outside the favourite, the best sprinter in the race is Spirit of Boom.
Locky's Selections
I hope Black Caviar wins. I don't want to be remembered as the guy who stopped the mighty mare. Fawkner is the next best horse in the race but may need more ground. Outside the favourite, the best sprinter in the race is Spirit of Boom.
Locky's Selections
6 Black Caviar
5 Fawkner
3 Spirit of Boom
In other races Alzora (Race 4 No. 1) looks good value at around $6.50. The favourite You're So Good does look the obvious top pick but if she has any chinks in her armour this filly will test her. David Hayes could train a rocking horse to win the way he's been going lately and Chad Schofield could win on a broomstick, when he's not earning the wrath of the stewards.
In other races Alzora (Race 4 No. 1) looks good value at around $6.50. The favourite You're So Good does look the obvious top pick but if she has any chinks in her armour this filly will test her. David Hayes could train a rocking horse to win the way he's been going lately and Chad Schofield could win on a broomstick, when he's not earning the wrath of the stewards.
Rosehill
Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies & mares quality handicap)
Current market
I, like many others, have the feeling that this is the best crop of three-year-olds we have seen in a long time. I also believe that, with a few obvious exceptions, the older brigade lacks depth. So you'll probably notice a pattern with my selections this weekend based on that assumption.
I, like many others, have the feeling that this is the best crop of three-year-olds we have seen in a long time. I also believe that, with a few obvious exceptions, the older brigade lacks depth. So you'll probably notice a pattern with my selections this weekend based on that assumption.
Norzita is likely to start a nominal favourite in a race with a host of chances. She looked a bit dour last time out when beaten as an odds-on favourite, or it may just have been that her brilliant first-up win took the edge off her second-up. Either way she does have bigger fish to fry down the track so she may not be fully wound up tomorrow, but she is a class filly and that will carry her a long way.
Steps In Time has been dominant in her two victories this prep and has won three from three third run after a spell. She has however never won beyond 1400m. Having said that she has had only one run at 1500m, when beaten in this very race as favourite last year. She may be bigger and stronger 12 months on, but she'll have to be because no winner of this race has lumped more than 56kg to win in the last ten years and only one has carried more than 54.5kg. In fact the only horse in the last 25 years to carry more than 56kg and win was Sunline, who carried 60kg in both her victories (2000, 2002).
You had to be impressed with Dear Demi last time out. Jockey Jim Cassidy said post race that if they couldn't beat her that day, they wouldn't for the rest of the Autumn Carnival. Read into that what you like, but remember that "The Pumper" isn't exactly the shy, retiring type.
Benetta blotted her copybook in that very same race after stringing together three successive victories. I said in the aftermath that I thought she may have had enough, either that or she just didn't see out the 1400m. Either way, it's hard for me to have her tomorrow.
The win of Flying Snitzel (when she lowered Norzita's colours last start) had to be seen to be believed. She came from last with a withering burst to swamp them late and I haven't seen anything go that fast since Richie Callander found out they'd just opened a new, all-you-can-eat restaurant just across the street.
Streama, Red Tracer and Appearance will have their admirers if you're looking for some roughies to throw into your exotics and I'm happy to risk the rest, although it does look an open race.
* Longport is an early scratching
Locky's Selections
6 Dear Demi
11 Flying Snitzel
7 Norzita
Ranvet Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Ranvet Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Current market
Fiveandahalfstar has been impressive without winning in three starts back this campaign following his all the way win in the VRC Derby last Spring. He may just get a soft lead here too and if so he'll be hard to run down with the pull in the weights. Some statisticians will point to the fact that no three-year-old has won this race in the last ten years, but the fact is only two have even contested it. That's no real surprise either, considering they can take on their own age at level weights for more prizemoney over the same distance a week later in the Rosehill Guineas.
Fiveandahalfstar has been impressive without winning in three starts back this campaign following his all the way win in the VRC Derby last Spring. He may just get a soft lead here too and if so he'll be hard to run down with the pull in the weights. Some statisticians will point to the fact that no three-year-old has won this race in the last ten years, but the fact is only two have even contested it. That's no real surprise either, considering they can take on their own age at level weights for more prizemoney over the same distance a week later in the Rosehill Guineas.
* Ambulance ran second in 2004 as a $2.25 favourite, and the only other three-year-old to start in this event was Grand Dancer in 2008 who ran second last, but he went around at $151!
Silent Achiever loomed up to win last time out but couldn't finish it off. She may have felt her first-up run when she lumped 61kg or it may just be that she needed that run to top her off for this. I certainly wouldn't be putting the biro through her just yet.
On face value Manighar was extremely disappointing first-up but a massive form reversal wouldn't be a surprise. Let's not forget he did win this race last year, but it must be said he was in much better form, having won the Australian Cup at his previous run.
Mawingo could improve dramatically going right-handed because arguably his best run since coming to Australia was his victory in last year's Doomben Cup, but he was ordinary in the Australian Cup a fortnight ago.
Foreteller was another who appeared below par in that race, but he wasn't able to produce his trademark finishing burst after chasing a hot speed all of the way.
Maluckyday has been sound in two runs back this time in and produced fantastic sectionals both times in races he couldn't possibly win because they were slowly run, sprint home affairs. His best runs in the past have been three runs or further into his preparation. (9 starts : 3-2-1)
Sangster has won his last three in NZ, two of them Group 1's, but this does look a big step up in class.
As usual I'll throw in some longshots for your trifectas because, let's face it, history shows my Top 3 usually run 1-2-4 or 1-3-4. Stablemates Kelinni and Gatewood should appreciate finally getting up to a suitable distance and Niwot isn't hopeless either having finished a closing fourth in this race last year en route to his victory in the Sydney Cup.
* Single and Mourinho are early scratchings.
Locky's Selections
13 Fiveandahalfstar
12 Silent Achiever
7 Maluckyday
Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)
Current market
Bookies have assessed this as a race in three, with the other seven runners likely to start $15 or better.
Bookies have assessed this as a race in three, with the other seven runners likely to start $15 or better.
More Joyous is looking to win this race for the third year in succession and I'm not courageous enough to say she can't do it again. Nash Rawiller will be the pilot but don't take that as a sign. It's not as if he's "jumped off" the three-year-old, he is simply honouring a commitment he made months ago when he believed the two weren't going to clash.
The run of Pierro in the Hobartville Stakes on March 13 was full of merit, given the track was rated a Heavy 14 and he was first-up since the Cox Plate against a rock-hard fit Rebel Dane. I really liked the way he kept sticking his neck out that day to defy the late challenge even though he appeared to be dead on his feet with 50m to go. He is sure to take a heap of improvement out of that run and should strip much fitter.
Moment of Change became the "bunny" by default when narrowly beaten in the Newmarket Handicap, and it took the eventual winner Shamexpress a day and a half to run him down even with a 5kg pull in the weights. He should get an easier run in transit tomorrow with Rain Affair sure to lead them a merry dance, but he's not well treated under the weight-for-age scale having to concede weight to the likely equal favourites.
There are some other handy types in the race but it's hard to see them troubling the top three. Happy Trails and Solzhenitsyn will be looking for further, Fontelina was average in the Newmarket (I've seen wet paint run faster than he did) and the last time Secret Admirer won the photo finish was sepia toned.
Locky's Selections
10 Pierro
7 More Joyous
10 Pierro
7 More Joyous
3 Moment of Change
Reisling Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o fillies set weights)
Reisling Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o fillies set weights)
Current market
It appears a race in two with Overreach and Villa Verde strangling the market and that's the way I have assessed it too.
It appears a race in two with Overreach and Villa Verde strangling the market and that's the way I have assessed it too.
Overreach donkey licked them in the Widden Stakes to win by almost six lengths and we have the advantage of having seen her run this year so we know that not only has she come back well but that she has also improved with the time off.
Villa Verde on the other hand hasn't raced since the Spring Carnival but you have to admit she did look good in winning both her starts, and although she didn't beat much last start, I just go back to her previous run where she defeated Overreach and seemed to have a bit in reserve. I know many punters will steer clear because she is yet to show that she can reproduce that form, but if Overreach can do it, why can't she?
With that in mind, I can't justify the discrepancy in the market ($1.70 vs $2.50) and let's face it, gambling is all about finding the right price. Given that I am happy to take the favourite on, even if I run the risk of ending up with an omelette on my face come 11.52am (AEDT) tomorrow morning.
Locky's Selections
1 Villa Verde
2 Overreach
3 Villa Verde
This a tough race and one where I will probably sit on my hands and watch on because there are probably eight runners you could make a case for here. I'll give you a top three which means I have to leave out five of them because as I've often said in this column you can't tip them all. But I'm doing so without any real confidence.
I tipped Charlie Boy at his last appearance and I am staying solid because I was more than satisfied with the run when 3rd in the Silver Slipper. He got through the bog track OK even though he didn't look really happy about it, but he still rattled off a slashing final 100m to finish third after getting too far back and going via the car park on the turn. An added bonus is that he comes from the Gerald Ryan yard and that stable is absolutely flying at the moment.
Whiskey Allround cannot be dismissed lightly. He has three wins and a narrow second in the Silver Slipper to his credit from his four starts and as I've said ad nauseum the Brisbane trainers don't bring them south on a whim. Last weekend showed us that the Queensland form is holding up too with Octane Flyer running second to All The Talk in the Skyline Stakes and Greytfilly a good third to Romantic Moon in the Sweet Embrace Stakes, after looming up to win before running out of condition the last little bit.
Criterion and Sidestep ran the quinella in the Black Opal but I have a question mark over that Canberra form, but the latter has been well tried and will likely start second or third elect here. I'm always wary when the coin comes for a Darley runner. Watch the market.
The run of Fast 'n' Rocking in the Blue Diamond at his last appearance was superb when he came from second last on the turn to run past all but the winner Miracles of Life who does appear to be one out of the box. He's another who has been found by the smarties in early betting ($9 into $7) so again watch the market for any further moves.
Never Can Tell failed dismally at his last outing but I think you have to put the pencil through that run in the Silver Slipper because he, like many others, just did not handle the track condition that day. Prior to that he'd won two from two including a win in the Canonbury Stakes over subsequent winners Whittington and Criterion.
The others that I give a chance are Va Pensiero and Windjammer. At his last two starts Va Pensiero has defeated All The Talk and ran a close second to Whittington who, at the moment, appear to be the pick of the boys in the two-year-old ranks. Windjammer did well to finish fourth to Whittington in the same race after walking out of the gates and running into more dead ends than a learner driver. Prior to that he split Charlie Boy and All The Talk when second on debut.
As far as betting propositions go, this is a tough race.
Locky's Selections
5 Charlie Boy
2 Fast 'n' Rocking
6 Va Pensiero
Phar Lap Stakes (Group 2, 1500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Phar Lap Stakes (Group 2, 1500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
This is another event where I'm not really keen to have a bet, but I know doubt will because I am a racing tragic. But I'm going to go wide and look for some value.
This is another event where I'm not really keen to have a bet, but I know doubt will because I am a racing tragic. But I'm going to go wide and look for some value.
Ashokan ran sixth in last year's Caulfield Guineas behind All Too Hard and Pierro, albeit beaten a long way. He then went for a spell, resuming with a solid fourth behind Rebel Dane in the Royal Sovereign Stakes followed up by a sixth behind Pierro, Rebel Dane, Proisir and It's A Dundeel in the Hobartville Stakes. He then tackled the Canberra Guineas and was beaten less than a length when conceding the eventual winner two kilos. He's right in this on that form.
Toydini had the flashing light on him when resuming three weeks ago at Rosehill when he rocketed home from last in a dawdling affair. I have my doubts about him though as he hasn't run a place in two starts at this track and you just don't know how much that effort on the bog track first-up has cost him. Many a horse in recent weeks has failed second-up after a hard first-up run and with just one win from 10 starts he does appear to be a bit camera shy.
Albrecht's three runs in Melbourne have been disappointing but a return to the Sydney way of going may be just what he needs. He has five starts for two wins and three seconds here including a victory in the Up & Coming Stakes last Spring followed by seconds in The Golden Rose (behind Epaulette) and Stan Fox Stakes (behind Kabayan). It may pay to forgive his effort in the Australian Guineas too because he got skittled early in the piece.
Just half a length separated Ninth Legion and Force Command in last weekend's Bendigo Guineas so I can't for the life of me see why one of them has come up at $6 and the other $15. Either way I find it hard to entertain either.
I could however make a case for both High Shot and Indianapolis. The former scored at Cranbourne on debut in awesome fashion before disappointing at his next two runs, but the fact that Mick Kent has pushed on and brought him north is a fair indication that he's still travelling well. The latter was average first-up in the Canberra Guineas but I cast my mind back to last Spring when he did the same on debut before he bolted in by five lengths second-up and followed that with a narrow second to Proverb in the Dulcify Quality.
Honorius is also in the mix although he probably needs further. He has class on his side though with a third to It's A Dundeel in the Spring Champion Stakes and a second to Hvasstan in the Norman Robinson Stakes against his name.
Locky's Selections
1 Albrecht
10 High Shot
9 Indianapolis
In other races Alma's Fury (Race 3 No. 2) looks to be an each-way pinch at $9. His last four runs have produced a nose second in the Villiers Stakes, wins in the Bernborough Handicap and Apollo Stakes plus a last start sixth beaten less than two lengths in the Chipping Norton. He's yet to win beyond a mile but did run third over 2200m as a three-year-old in the Grand Prix Stakes at Eagle Farm during the Winter Carnival two years ago.
In other races Alma's Fury (Race 3 No. 2) looks to be an each-way pinch at $9. His last four runs have produced a nose second in the Villiers Stakes, wins in the Bernborough Handicap and Apollo Stakes plus a last start sixth beaten less than two lengths in the Chipping Norton. He's yet to win beyond a mile but did run third over 2200m as a three-year-old in the Grand Prix Stakes at Eagle Farm during the Winter Carnival two years ago.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Calm down my dear, it's nothing to lose your head over.
- Henry VIII, London, 1536 A.D.
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