A big weekend ahead with the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) the feature event at Flemington, along with five other Black Type races.
In Sydney we turn our attention to Rosehill on another meeting doomed to be severly affected by inclement weather. They've had more than 40mm of rain this week and are tipped to receive up to 30mm in the next 24 hours. It's a shame because they have a good card with two Group 2's, a Group 3 and two Listed races.
There's also Listed races in Brisbane and Adelaide so there's plenty of good racing on offer, now let's see if we can find a few winners!
In Sydney we turn our attention to Rosehill on another meeting doomed to be severly affected by inclement weather. They've had more than 40mm of rain this week and are tipped to receive up to 30mm in the next 24 hours. It's a shame because they have a good card with two Group 2's, a Group 3 and two Listed races.
There's also Listed races in Brisbane and Adelaide so there's plenty of good racing on offer, now let's see if we can find a few winners!
LOOKING BACK
The Warwick Farm meeting was ruined as a spectacle by constant heavy rain but at least we had the fairytale ending to the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) to put a smile on our dials. The maiden Group 1 success for apprentice jockey Lauren Stojakovic and trainer Daniel Clarken was great to see, if only to watch the reaction of her father as she crossed the line on unbeaten filly Miracles of Life.
For a minute there I thought he had either backed Guelph or was having some kind of seizure.
I almost tipped you into the trifecta too with my selections running first (Miracles of Life), third (Godiva Rock) and fourth (Gregers). Oh well, close, but no cigar. It was a similar story in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) with All Too Hard, King Mufhasa and Green Moon running, you guessed it, 1-2-4. D'oh! In the only other Group 1, the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), I wasn't quite as successful, with one selection scratched at the barrier (Barakey), another who should have been scratched at the barrier before going like a busted (Shamal Wind) and a third who was lucky to beat home the ambulance (Ortensia).
In other news during the week Newmarket Handicap weights were released with dual Group 1 winning WA gelding Luckygray allocated topweight of 58kg. Current favourite Moment of Change and Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) failures Ortensia and Woorim have been allocated 56.5kg. Group 1 winners Barakey and Atomic Force are next in line with 56kg, with the former cleared for a start after completing a special gallop in front of stewards at Caulfield on Wednesday following his scratching at the barriers last weekend.
At the other end of the weight scale talented three-year-old Better Than Ready gets in with just 50.5kg. Six of the last seven winners have carried 56kg or more, and five of the last seven have paid $5.50 or less, so the stats would appear to point to Moment of Change.
Meanwhile quick thinking by jockey Kathy O'Hara has almost certainly saved fellow hoop Hugh Bowman from serious injury after he was dislodged from filly Inflatable Miss when she veered out suddenly during the finish of Race 3 at Goulburn on Thursday. Sydney's premiership leading jockey looked certain to be struck by O'Hara's mount before a brilliant, split-second reaction saw her able to steer clear of a grateful Bowman.
Lastly star sprinter Hay List (below) remains on track to resume in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) in two weeks time after breezing through a track gallop at Gosford on Wednesday.
I almost tipped you into the trifecta too with my selections running first (Miracles of Life), third (Godiva Rock) and fourth (Gregers). Oh well, close, but no cigar. It was a similar story in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) with All Too Hard, King Mufhasa and Green Moon running, you guessed it, 1-2-4. D'oh! In the only other Group 1, the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), I wasn't quite as successful, with one selection scratched at the barrier (Barakey), another who should have been scratched at the barrier before going like a busted (Shamal Wind) and a third who was lucky to beat home the ambulance (Ortensia).
In other news during the week Newmarket Handicap weights were released with dual Group 1 winning WA gelding Luckygray allocated topweight of 58kg. Current favourite Moment of Change and Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) failures Ortensia and Woorim have been allocated 56.5kg. Group 1 winners Barakey and Atomic Force are next in line with 56kg, with the former cleared for a start after completing a special gallop in front of stewards at Caulfield on Wednesday following his scratching at the barriers last weekend.
At the other end of the weight scale talented three-year-old Better Than Ready gets in with just 50.5kg. Six of the last seven winners have carried 56kg or more, and five of the last seven have paid $5.50 or less, so the stats would appear to point to Moment of Change.
Meanwhile quick thinking by jockey Kathy O'Hara has almost certainly saved fellow hoop Hugh Bowman from serious injury after he was dislodged from filly Inflatable Miss when she veered out suddenly during the finish of Race 3 at Goulburn on Thursday. Sydney's premiership leading jockey looked certain to be struck by O'Hara's mount before a brilliant, split-second reaction saw her able to steer clear of a grateful Bowman.
Lastly star sprinter Hay List (below) remains on track to resume in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) in two weeks time after breezing through a track gallop at Gosford on Wednesday.
LOOKING FORWARD
Flemington
Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
All Too Hard looks the obvious one here and has come up at very skinny odds after back-to-back Group 1 victories over the older horses. Some have pointed to the seven day back-up as a concern but this was the plan mapped out from the start and the Hawkes team do have a habit of producing horses to win on the quick back-up. He'll also have to overcome a wide gate but he does look to have a bit on this lot so I'm not going to make the mistake of tipping against him as I did last time just because of the odds-on quote. But there are many other interesting runners in this race.
The Mick Price trained Ajeeb has won two from three and looked dominant in his last start win at Sandown, however this is his biggest test to date.
I tipped High Shot as a horse to follow last time out and he was disappointing but his barnstorming win on debut at his previous start was the sort of performance you only see from serious animals so it may pay to forgive that run. Big race jockey Craig Williams takes the ride.
Phillipi stamped himself as one to watch last Spring winning his first three starts, culminating in a Listed race win at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes Day. His first-up effort a fortnight ago in the Group 3 C S Hayes Stakes (1400m) was sound and that is a traditional lead-up race for this event.
On paper Albrecht's last start effort in the same race would appear below average but he was trying to make ground from well back in a race that was run at a farcically slow tempo so his effort to break 33 seconds for the final 600m was outstanding.
Bass Strait was another to run on well from worse than midfield in the same event so if he gets some pace on tomorrow he could figure in the finish. Sheer Talent, Force Command and Hosting ran the trifecta in that race but have drawn the carpark in tomorrow's feature which will make it hard for them.
Hvasstan, You're So Good and Red Inca have also shown ability and will have their admirers.
Locky's Selections
1 All Too Hard
15 High Shot
2 Albrecht
Frances Tressady Stakes (Group 3, 1400m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)
Current market
As I have said a few times previously the topweights do tend to have an advantage in these set weights plus penalties races because they meet the lightly weighted horses much better off than they would if the race were a handicap event. The Peter Moody trained mare There's Only One has won four from five at this distance and three from four second up and is coming off a good first up win over Loveyamadly who'll go around a short priced favourite in an earlier race so that should give us some sort of guide to the strength of the formline.
Koonoomoo took on open company at Group 1 level last week and I'm always wary of good mares dropping back in grade to compete against their own sex. I tipped her as one to follow a few weeks back when she looked to have the race won before being collared on the line to finish third but was only beaten a short head by a nose.
Jolie Blonde (first) and Sheila's Star (third) are in the same boat having both run well in the Listed Hareeba Stakes (1200m) at the Mornington metro meeting on February 13. Jolie Blonde has never won beyond 1200m so that may be a concern and Sheila's Star does meet her two kilos better off and was beaten less than a length.
Bonnie Mac was disappointing last start but when interviewed earlier this week trainer Mike Moroney said the step-up to 1400m may be what she is looking for at this stage of her preparation.
Locky's Selections
1 There's Only One
2 Koonoomoo
5 Sheila's Star
There are four Listed races on the program too, including the TAB Stakes (1400m). Launay has been set for this race and looks a good prospect with four wins from six starts at Flemington and an imposing second-up record (three wins from five starts). He's currently around $5.50 with most of the corporate bookmakers. His narrow first-up second showed he has come back fit and well.
Rosehill
Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)
Current market
All eyes will be on boom colt Pierro as he resumes from a spell. In fact six horses in this field of 11 are first-up, and with the track currently rated a Heavy 8 and more rain forecast this may be a concern for all of them. Last weekend's meeting at Warwick Farm was run in similar conditions and horses with race fitness on their side dominated.
Rebel Dane looks the obvious threat. His effort to come from last in a slowly run race and still win the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes (1200m) two weeks ago was outstanding.
Victorian visitor Mulaazem is another with residual fitness having had the three runs back, winning his last two. Last time out he beat Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool who subsequently ran the quinella in last weekend's Group 2 Autumn Classic (1800m), and also ran the quinella in the Group 1 VRC Derby (2500m) at Flemington during the Spring Carnival.
Proisir and It's A Dundeel have trialled well in the lead-up to this and both are unbeaten first-up.
Sacred Falls is having his second start for the Waller stable after coming to Australia with big wraps following six wins from as many starts in New Zealand. On face value he was disappointing last start but he may benefit from a faster tempo tomorrow.
Locky's Selections
7 Rebel Dane
1 Pierro
9 Mulaazem
Silver Slipper Stakes (Group 2, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights plus penalties)
Current market
Charlie Boy is likely to start favourite in an open betting race and it's no secret Gerald Ryan has a big opinion of this colt. He is just one of four horses going into this race unbeaten, including Never Can Tell, Romantic Moon and Whiskey Allround. Trainer Tony Gollan has brought the latter down from Queensland for this race so obviously he thinks the gelding can be competitive. He sure as hell didn't make the trip south for the weather.
Kuroshio's form is hard to fault with two wins from four starts. His other two runs were a third behind current Golden Slipper first and second favourites Villa Verde and Overreach in the Listed Debutants Stakes (1000m) and a narrow second in the Listed Blue Diamond Preview - Colts & Geldings (1000m).
Gary Portelli's All The Talk has been specked in early markets ($10 into $8.50), the Waterhouse trained Sweet Idea was beaten a whisker in the Magic Millions (1200m) and Peter Moody's Brilliant Bisc boasts a win over the highly talented Guelph so there are plenty you could make a case for.
Locky's Selections
7 Charlie Boy
1 Kuroshio
5 All The Talk
Millie Fox Stakes (Group 3, 1300m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)
Current market
Red Tracer is looking for back-to-back wins in this event and with every further drop of rain her chances are enhanced. She's won four from four on heavy and one out of one on slow going. In short, she goes better in the wet than Ian Thorpe. She'll be my top pick easily but I won't be diving into the even money that is currently on offer.
Lady's Angel is another with a good record on heavy going (five starts for three wins and two seconds) and she was beaten just over a length in the Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) against open company this time last year.
Driefontein hasn't been far away in three runs back this time in and has race fitness on her side. That could be a major factor because by the time we get to Race 7 I think the track may be deteriorating faster than a Chennai pitch.
I'm certain that punters will once again tumble into Secret Admirer after her good trial but she's becoming a bit of a money muncher. The last time she tasted success I'm sure the race was broadcast in black and white.
Happy to risk the rest.
Locky's Selections
2 Red Tracer
4 Lady's Angel
6 Driefontein
A couple of Listed races on the program too, and I'll be interested to see how Charge Account performs in the Fireball Quality (1100m) after I made him a horse to follow back in early February and he duly saluted, albeit at skinny odds.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
So you're looking for a quiet, secluded place to camp? I think I may be able to help.- Ivan Milat, Belanglo State Forest, 1992
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