Blue Diamond Preview

I return following a two week absence due to an overseas trip and find myself just in time for what is the best weekend of racing to date this calendar year.

We have three Group 1 races from Caulfield. The two-year-olds do battle for the second richest juvenile prize of the year in the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m), the sprinters lock horns in the time honoured Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and the weight-for-agers tackle the Futurity Stakes (1400m). There are an additional four Group races on the program including important lead up races to the Australian Guineas and Australian Cup.

The Warwick Farm meeting is highlighted by the running of the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m) and two other black type races. All in all it shapes as a cracking weekend of racing.

I'll also look back on last week, including that fabulous return by Black Caviar. A race I could not watch live anywhere despite being in the gambling capital of the world, Las Vegas. We had to live stream it through a mobile phone in our hotel room. So for everyone else who didn't get to see it either, here it is again.

LOOKING BACK

I picked a good weekend to be away as it was a bleak day for punters at Flemington last Saturday. Just two of the nine favourites won on the day and one of them was unbackable at $1.10. The average winning price for the day was $10 and apart from Black Caviar, no winner in the last six races paid less than $13.

I won't say too much on Black Caviar as by this stage it has all been said, but I will say this. I never thought I'd see Special's 1988 record of 55.5 seconds for the Flemington 1000m ever be broken, given that the track has since been redeveloped and we just don't see races run on a genuinely rock-hard, fast track anymore.

In other news boom horse Puissance de Lune is on track for a tilt at next month's Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m) at Flemington, after pulling up well following a jump-out at Ballarat yesterday (below).

Hay List won a barrier trial at Randwick on Monday and will trial again at Warwick Farm next week as trainer John McNair aims towards a comeback in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) at Warwick Farm late next month.

Meanwhile Jockey Danny Nikolic has had his two-year disqualification reduced to a one-year disqualification followed by a one-year suspension. The penalty related to threats he made to Racing Victoria chief steward Terry Bailey.

Lastly hoops Michelle Payne, Michael Walker and Anthony Darmanin have all been fined $1000 after pleading guilty to betting charges resulting from an audit of corporate bookmakers accounts.

LOOKING FORWARD

Caulfield

Blue Diamond Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

Thermal Current and Casquets are early scratchings and this is bad news for many because I know of quite a few people who were keen on the former.

If you look at the overall and sectional times from the Previews and the Preludes than the girls have got lengths on the boys and should run top three. But two-year-old races can throw up surprises, there's been many a good juvenile that looked brilliant up to 1100m but couldn't run 1200m. So if you like one of the boys then stick to your guns. 

Should we read anything into the fact that Darley has chosen not to accept with fully qualified colt Kuroshio and instead stick with the three fillies? And what about the fresh horses on the scene? Crack a Roadie was scratched from Mornington after getting cast in his stall but he has had two starts for a win and a second to current Golden Slipper second favourite Villa Verde. Gregers looked good in winning her only start at Moonee Valley, and it may pay to note that the next four horses over the line that night (Annenberg, Casquets, Essie's Pride & Politeness) subsequently ran the First Four in the Listed Talindert Stakes (1100m) at Flemington last week. The bloke that will ride her has won this race a few times too.

The obvious three are Miracles of Life, Guelph & Metastasio. They've had perfect preparations and have hardly put a foot wrong with eight starts between them for seven wins, with the only defeat being Guelph's second on debut back in October. The Darley pair will need luck from awkward draws while Miracles of Life should get the gun run from barrier one, which has me slightly leaning her way.

Dissident can't be overlooked as the Colts & Geldings Preview has produced three of the last five winners (Reaan, Reward for Effort & Sepoy) and The Bowler and Godiva Rock could be the ones to fly in under the radar having only had the one start.

Selections

14 Gregers

10 Miracles of Life

15 Godiva Rock

Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, Handicap)

Current market

Boom Perth gelding Barakey makes his first appearance on the eastern seaboard and is attempting to make it 12 wins from as many starts and back-to-back Group 1's after victory in the Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Ascot (WA) in late November. Shamal Wind is also unbeaten, granted in a lower grade, but she's well in at the weights with just 50.5kg and her slashing win down the straight during the Flemington Carnival at just her second start stamped her as a galloper on an upward spiral. Three-year-olds have always been competitive in this race.

Queensland has launched an invasion with Woorim back to defend his crown and last year's third placegetter Facile Tigre returning for another crack. He goes into the race first up just like last year, where he looked all over the winner before being collared by Woorim and Elite Falls right on the line. Adebisi is flying with three wins from his last four and Spirit of Boom was only half a length behind Barakey in the Winterbottom and meets him a kilo better off.

Ortensia returns to the Australian racetrack after a successful raid in England and cannot be dismissed despite the big weight. In fact there are plenty you could make a case for including in your exotics including Sea Lord, Lone Rock, Mrs Onassis and Undeniably. But the problem with picking a top three is that I am only allowed three.

Selections

14 Shamal Wind

3 Barakey

1 Ortensia

Futurity Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

All Too Hard looks the obvious selection here on paper but I'm not sure I want to be jumping out of a window to take $1.60-$1.70, which is what's likely to be offered. Green Moon ran a cracking race first up last Spring when a closing fifth behind Sincero in the Group 2 Memsie Stakes, which is also a Group 2 1400m w-f-a race at this circuit. He will be a lot further forward in his preparation this time around seeing the plan is to go straight from this into the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) in a fortnight, whereas last Spring his long term goal was the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).

Depending on what they elect to do with Koonoomoo and, to a lesser extent, Shanghai Warrior and Glass Harmonium, King Mufhasa may get a soft lead. They've had a hot, dry week in Melbourne which can sometimes produce a dynamite leaders track at Caulfield, so watch the pattern of early races.

Selections

1 Green Moon

10 All Too Hard

2 King Mufhasa

Peter Young (formerly St. George) Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)

Current market

A major lead-up race for many of the hopefuls headed towards the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) in two weeks time. With All to Hard likely to start a short odds-on favourite later in the day, Mawingo and Mr Moet, the two unlucky runners who chased him home last start (see below) look likely to fight this out. The rest look well below this pair in terms of class although it would not surprise me to see Foreteller, Eclair Surprise or Prairie Star run a cheeky race.

Selections

3 Mawingo
1 Mr Moet
6 Eclair Surprise

There are three other black type races on the program, the most interesting of which appears to be the Group 2 Autumn Classic (1800m) where Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool resume their rivalry. This duo ran the quinella in last year's VRC Derby and showed they have returned well with a good second and third respectively when resuming a fortnight ago in the Group 2 Autumn Stakes (1400m).

Warwick Farm

Apollo Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

In making selections for Warwick Farm I'm going to lean heavily towards the horses with noted wet track form because Sydney is expecting decent falls both tonight and tomorrow, according to the Channel 4 weatherman.

In fact I'll be interested to see if Pierro's scheduled track gallop after Race 1 goes ahead if the track is severely affected.

1400m races at Warwick Farm can be tricky affairs. It's basically a straight run to the one and only bend and then a sprint home. The pace can be muddling as no-one is in any hurry to find the fence with only one turn to negotiate, and sometimes it seems as if every jockey is looking over his shoulder saying "Do you want to lead? I don't want to lead."

With that in mind and the lack of any natural speed in the race then Glencadam Gold could find himself getting away with some cheap sectionals and they may find him hard to run down, because coming from the Waterhouse yard you just know he'll be as tough as old boots. Seems crazy to be entertaining a Caulfield/Melbourne Cups horse first up in a w-f-a sprint but there you have it.

Chris Waller has no fewer than six of the 13 runners. Bookies have assessed his best chances as Shoot Out and Tougher than Ever. The former goes well fresh and handles the sting out of the ground. For a horse who in human terms is approaching mandatory retirement age Danleigh went super first up. He has five wins second up and five wins on slow going to his name and has been specked in early betting. Albert the Fat is another who has good wet track and second up form, and he was doing his best work late when resuming in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) two weeks ago.

Laser Hawk boasts arguably some of the best form in Australia. His six career starts have yielded four wins including victory in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) over subsequent Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and NZ Derby and Crystal Mile winner Silent Achiever. His only two defeats were a close up third in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) and a one and a half length third in the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m). The former was on a slow track when he was just a neck and half a neck behind Mosheen and Said Com.

Current market

Selections

5 Laser Hawk
4 Glencadam Gold
1 Shoot Out

There are other good races on the program, with star mare Streama to resume in the Group 3 Southern Cross (1200m) and the fillies and mares set to slug it out in the Listed Triscay Stakes (1200m), but with the predicted inclement weather and the embarrassment of riches on offer in Melbourne I will be confining most of my punting to Caulfield.

And don't forget that Cox Plate hero Ocean Park resumes in NZ tomorrow in the Group 1 Haunui Farm Classic (1600m) at Otaki. The race is at 2.26pm (AEDT). He's not really a betting proposition but I'm keen to see how he has come back ahead of his planned international campaign.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I offer no defence Your Worship. I don't have a leg to stand on.
- Oscar Pistorious, Pretoria Magistrates Court, 20 February 2013