The wash-up comes a bit later this week with so much to digest from a massive Cox Plate Day and no major mid-week Cups lead up race to worry about. That's no disrespect to the time-honoured Bendigo Cup - the race that stops a suburb.
We'll also have a better idea of what the weekend ahead holds in store now that we know the final acceptances for Flemington this Saturday.
We'll also have a better idea of what the weekend ahead holds in store now that we know the final acceptances for Flemington this Saturday.
There's a lot to get through and the best place to start is with the race they call "the best two minutes in sport" so let's see what we can learn from....
THE WEEK THAT WAS...
Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, w-f-a)
I think the best horse won and there were few excuses for any of the beaten brigade. Ocean Park gave the second horse eight kilos and a huge head start and still managed to circle the field four and five wide and get the chocolates. Daylight third.
I make the decision every year to boycott the 3-y-o's in this race because whilst they do win sometimes, they don't win many, just six in the last 40 years. Sooner or later a 3-y-o will win one and I'll be left looking stupid but I'll be right more often than not. Just watch too, when I am finally wrong some idiot will bag me and say "you said a 3-y-o couldn't win". No, I didn't. I said they rarely win, that's why I take them on.
As for the younger horses All Too Hard jumped well and benefited from a truly run race. How much did that quarter of a length cost him? I'm saying $20 million conservatively because after his Guineas win I had him as a $20 million dollar stud prospect, and if he adds a Cox Plate to that I reckon you can double that figure. But it's a moot point because in all likelihood owner Nathan Tinkler will stand him at Patinack Farm rather than sell him to a rival stud. He's not short of a quid.
I thought the other 3-y-o's were sound with Pierro a game third after his gutbuster a fortnight earlier in the Guineas and Proisir only knocked up the last little bit after making all the running out in front.
Ethiopa put in a huge run that will tune him up nicely for next Tuesday if the stable decides to run and Southern Speed likewise showed she's back on track for a tilt at Flemington with the fastest closing 200m of the race.
As I predicted More Joyous, Sincero and Happy Trails failed to run out a strong ten furlongs and Glass Harmonium and Linton were out of their depth.
Green Moon and Rekindled Interest were the hard luck stories of the race, coming back to scale bruised and battered while Shoot Out blew any chance he had when he bungled the start. It's doubtful he would have troubled the first two but he may have run into a place.
Locky's tip - Ocean Park win. 1st. I hope you followed me in and got the juicy odds on offer.
Moonee Valley Cup (G2, 2500m, set weights plus penalties)
Connections of the winner Vatuvei are likely to pay up for the Melbourne Cup even though he's unlikely to start, even if by some miracle he does sneak into the final field. The reason being that there is a $100,000 bonus this year for any horse that is balloted out of The Cup but wins the Queen Elizabeth on Emirates Stakes Day next Saturday. He's probably still six to twelve months away anyway and we could well see him back here making an even bigger impact next Spring.
Locky's tip - Mida's Touch win. 8th but had excuses.
Super Cool gave punters chills when he knocked over the short priced favourite It's a Dundeel but the latter will retain favourtism for this Saturday's feature. I cannot for the life of me explain why there is such a discrepancy in the Derby market because the Kiwi appeared to have his chance and wasn't making ground in the run to the line. Is it because he is already a huge liability for the bookies or do the punters think he'll be better suited at Flemington?
Another victory for the visiting trainers with the Kiwi Silent Achiever getting the prize for the Roger James stable. It was their only runner all day and it made Ocean Park look like a good thing later in the afternoon for the smarties who followed the form line.
Locky's tip - Solzhenitsyn win. 3rd. Not suited by the w-f-a conditions but stuck to his guns. One of the main chances in the Emirates on the final day of the carnival.
THE WEEK AHEAD...
VRC Derby (G1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Plenty are keen to follow It's a Dundeel after his defeat at the skinny odds last weekend but Super Cool looked stronger to the line and will be a much better price. Hvasstan won well at his last start and the stable is flying with two winners from two runners in as many weeks so he cannot be left out of calculations. I also liked the way that despite having an interrupted passage he still attacked the finishing line the way I attack an open bar. But I'll stick with Honorius as I've said all along I cannot wait for this bloke to get to Flemington and 2500m.
Mackinnon Stakes (G1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Ocean Park will start at almost unbackable odds after his dominant Cox Plate win but this event has been a graveyard for horses backing up after the weight for age championship. Only So You Think, Better Loosen Up and Rubiton have won the double in the last 25 years. I'll be looking for a horse that has been kept for this race as a specific target rather than a horse that is using it as an afterthought or a consolation prize. The runners that tick those boxes are Alcopop and December Draw.
Myer Classic (G1, 1600m, fillies and mares set weights)
The set weight conditions favour the top class mares in a race like this. Group 1 winners like Streama, Secret Admirer and Yosei meet the rest of this field at level weights but if this were a handicap they would be conceding most of this lot six to eight kilos. Streama will start a short priced favourite but beware of Secret Admirer who drops back to fillies and mares grade after competing against the boys all Spring.
Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)
I like Sizzling in a race that should be a hotly contested betting affair. I thought his first run was enormous as he was under pressure all the way and still had the cheek to fight on in the straight. He'll derive great benefit from the run and the Brisbane Winter form is stacking up with Sea Siren and Mental running the quinella in the Manikato, Vatuvei winning the Moonee Valley Cup and Solzhenitsyn claiming the Toorak. Snitzerland, Fire Thunderbolt and Lankan Rupee come out of the same race and therefore must be included in multiples. Happy to risk Nechita.
Lexus (G3, 2500m, quality handicap)
This is shaping as one of the races of the carnival as it is the last throw at the stumps for many a Cup hopeful. Gatewood (1st, Geelong Cup), Tanby (1st, Bart Cummings), Kelinni (2nd, Metropolitan), Excluded (2nd, Herbert Power) Reuben Percival (2nd, Moonee Valley Cup) and Exceptionally (3rd, Herbert Power) headline a field of 13 runners that are all still paid up for the Cup and all need to win to gain a start. Tanby is currently the highest placed in the order of entry at 31st. I'm leaning towards Excluded after his solid second behind Shahwardi three weeks ago. The stable had a miserable day last weekend but can bounce back with big race rider Craig Williams in the saddle. Won at this track three starts back.
Wakeful Stakes (G2, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights plus penalties)
The final lead-up to the Oaks five days later. Tyanna from the Griffiths yard has been backed in early markets but Dear Demi and Zydeco will start almost equal favourites after their stellar runs in the Thousand Guineas. Guy Walter's Zuccotto isn't hopeless either. A tough race. Leaning slightly to Dear Demi as she is more seasoned and didn't have the best of luck last start.
I make the decision every year to boycott the 3-y-o's in this race because whilst they do win sometimes, they don't win many, just six in the last 40 years. Sooner or later a 3-y-o will win one and I'll be left looking stupid but I'll be right more often than not. Just watch too, when I am finally wrong some idiot will bag me and say "you said a 3-y-o couldn't win". No, I didn't. I said they rarely win, that's why I take them on.
As for the younger horses All Too Hard jumped well and benefited from a truly run race. How much did that quarter of a length cost him? I'm saying $20 million conservatively because after his Guineas win I had him as a $20 million dollar stud prospect, and if he adds a Cox Plate to that I reckon you can double that figure. But it's a moot point because in all likelihood owner Nathan Tinkler will stand him at Patinack Farm rather than sell him to a rival stud. He's not short of a quid.
I thought the other 3-y-o's were sound with Pierro a game third after his gutbuster a fortnight earlier in the Guineas and Proisir only knocked up the last little bit after making all the running out in front.
Ethiopa put in a huge run that will tune him up nicely for next Tuesday if the stable decides to run and Southern Speed likewise showed she's back on track for a tilt at Flemington with the fastest closing 200m of the race.
As I predicted More Joyous, Sincero and Happy Trails failed to run out a strong ten furlongs and Glass Harmonium and Linton were out of their depth.
Green Moon and Rekindled Interest were the hard luck stories of the race, coming back to scale bruised and battered while Shoot Out blew any chance he had when he bungled the start. It's doubtful he would have troubled the first two but he may have run into a place.
Locky's tip - Ocean Park win. 1st. I hope you followed me in and got the juicy odds on offer.
Moonee Valley Cup (G2, 2500m, set weights plus penalties)
Connections of the winner Vatuvei are likely to pay up for the Melbourne Cup even though he's unlikely to start, even if by some miracle he does sneak into the final field. The reason being that there is a $100,000 bonus this year for any horse that is balloted out of The Cup but wins the Queen Elizabeth on Emirates Stakes Day next Saturday. He's probably still six to twelve months away anyway and we could well see him back here making an even bigger impact next Spring.
Locky's tip - Mida's Touch win. 8th but had excuses.
The Vase (G2, 2040m, 3-y-o set weights)
Super Cool gave punters chills when he knocked over the short priced favourite It's a Dundeel but the latter will retain favourtism for this Saturday's feature. I cannot for the life of me explain why there is such a discrepancy in the Derby market because the Kiwi appeared to have his chance and wasn't making ground in the run to the line. Is it because he is already a huge liability for the bookies or do the punters think he'll be better suited at Flemington?
Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, w-f-a)
Another victory for the visiting trainers with the Kiwi Silent Achiever getting the prize for the Roger James stable. It was their only runner all day and it made Ocean Park look like a good thing later in the afternoon for the smarties who followed the form line.
Locky's tip - Solzhenitsyn win. 3rd. Not suited by the w-f-a conditions but stuck to his guns. One of the main chances in the Emirates on the final day of the carnival.
* As alluded to above lately we've been following visiting trainers who only bring one or two horses to the races and last week Gary Hennessy (Ocean Park), Roger James (Silent Achiever) and Paul Perry (Hidden Warrior) all saluted the judge. The Vics with small teams weren't to be outdone either with Paul Gelagotis (Mourinho), Jason Warren (Freereturn) and Mathew Ellerton/Simon Zahra (Star of Giselle) also claiming the winners cheque with their only runner all day.
Don't forget to leave a comment if you think the tips have been helpful... or terrible!
THE WEEK AHEAD...
VRC Derby (G1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Plenty are keen to follow It's a Dundeel after his defeat at the skinny odds last weekend but Super Cool looked stronger to the line and will be a much better price. Hvasstan won well at his last start and the stable is flying with two winners from two runners in as many weeks so he cannot be left out of calculations. I also liked the way that despite having an interrupted passage he still attacked the finishing line the way I attack an open bar. But I'll stick with Honorius as I've said all along I cannot wait for this bloke to get to Flemington and 2500m.
Mackinnon Stakes (G1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Ocean Park will start at almost unbackable odds after his dominant Cox Plate win but this event has been a graveyard for horses backing up after the weight for age championship. Only So You Think, Better Loosen Up and Rubiton have won the double in the last 25 years. I'll be looking for a horse that has been kept for this race as a specific target rather than a horse that is using it as an afterthought or a consolation prize. The runners that tick those boxes are Alcopop and December Draw.
Myer Classic (G1, 1600m, fillies and mares set weights)
The set weight conditions favour the top class mares in a race like this. Group 1 winners like Streama, Secret Admirer and Yosei meet the rest of this field at level weights but if this were a handicap they would be conceding most of this lot six to eight kilos. Streama will start a short priced favourite but beware of Secret Admirer who drops back to fillies and mares grade after competing against the boys all Spring.
Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)
I like Sizzling in a race that should be a hotly contested betting affair. I thought his first run was enormous as he was under pressure all the way and still had the cheek to fight on in the straight. He'll derive great benefit from the run and the Brisbane Winter form is stacking up with Sea Siren and Mental running the quinella in the Manikato, Vatuvei winning the Moonee Valley Cup and Solzhenitsyn claiming the Toorak. Snitzerland, Fire Thunderbolt and Lankan Rupee come out of the same race and therefore must be included in multiples. Happy to risk Nechita.
Lexus (G3, 2500m, quality handicap)
This is shaping as one of the races of the carnival as it is the last throw at the stumps for many a Cup hopeful. Gatewood (1st, Geelong Cup), Tanby (1st, Bart Cummings), Kelinni (2nd, Metropolitan), Excluded (2nd, Herbert Power) Reuben Percival (2nd, Moonee Valley Cup) and Exceptionally (3rd, Herbert Power) headline a field of 13 runners that are all still paid up for the Cup and all need to win to gain a start. Tanby is currently the highest placed in the order of entry at 31st. I'm leaning towards Excluded after his solid second behind Shahwardi three weeks ago. The stable had a miserable day last weekend but can bounce back with big race rider Craig Williams in the saddle. Won at this track three starts back.
Wakeful Stakes (G2, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights plus penalties)
The final lead-up to the Oaks five days later. Tyanna from the Griffiths yard has been backed in early markets but Dear Demi and Zydeco will start almost equal favourites after their stellar runs in the Thousand Guineas. Guy Walter's Zuccotto isn't hopeless either. A tough race. Leaning slightly to Dear Demi as she is more seasoned and didn't have the best of luck last start.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I bet you can't fly over that mountain
- Hansie Cronje, South Africa, 1992
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