Melbourne Cup washup / Oaks preview

Another Melbourne Cup has been run and won and hopefully my preview and stats report helped steer you into the winner. I did not tip it in my top three but made it one of my best roughies, in fact my exact words were:

Green Moon

Every time I think of writing this bloke off after his last start failure I cast my mind back to Jeune in 1994 who flopped in the Cox Plate before claiming the Cup at the juicy odds of 16-1 after being one of the early favourites for the race. Dismiss him at your peril!

But I cannot claim too much credit because as I've said I didn't have him in my top three and if you throw eight names out there (1/3 of the field) you're bound to find the winner!

LOOKING BACK...

Internationals vs Locals

I know I said an international would win and we are all claiming Green Moon as an "Australian" but the fact remains that Precedence (9th) was the first Australian bred horse over the line. Green Moon was bred in Ireland and raced in England before coming to Australia a year ago. Fiorente was having his first start in this country. Granted both horses were owned and trained by Aussie interests but claiming them as locals? Turn it up.

If the Australian breeding industry continues its bloody minded obsession with producing precocious, ready-to-race juveniles there will come a time in this country when we do not have a local horse good enough to win our greatest race.

Tempo

The pace of the race was slow, allowing the front runners to sprint home off a dawdling early speed. The final 600m of the 3200m race was timed at 34.07 seconds. That's a faster closing sectional than Woorim recorded in  winning this year's 1100m G1 Oakleigh Plate. It's also one tenth of second faster for the final three furlongs than Unpretentious clocked in winning the MSS Security Sprint (1200m) down the straight two races later. 

Look at it this way. Last start Glencadam Gold led them up in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). He stopped as if shot at the top of the straight and was lucky to beat home the ambulance. Yet he led again yesterday in a longer race and was still there with a winning chance with 300m to go and battled on to finish sixth.

It was impossible for horses worse than midfield to run on. The best two runs in the circumstances (although it's little consolation to those who backed them) were Mount Athos (best last 400m of 22.4 sec) and Jakkalberry (best last 800m of 44.94 sec). Red Cadeaux also ran on strongly from well back but was never really a threat.

Jockey

Brett Prebble must have been giggling to himself as they passed the half mile because he hadn't spent a penny and was close to the lead in a handicap event on a lightly-weighted weight-for-age type with a turn of foot. Once he angled into the clear at the top of the straight anyone who backed him was looking for their bookie because the only question to be asked at that point was "How far does he win by?" A big race rider who knows this track well having won nine races over the four day Flemington carnival not once but twice (1999,2000).

Read what the jockeys had to say after the race here

Statistics

We only concentrated on the last 10 years because I said I don't feel the results going back further are relevant to this race and we weren't far from the mark. 

The top elects always struggle in this race and of the four who battled it out for favourtism (Dunaden, Americain, Red Cadeaux & Mount Athos) the best they could manage between them was fifth. 

I tipped (like most others) that the topweights would struggle and they did although granted they weren't helped by a firmish track and a farcical tempo.

The odds prediction based on recent results was that the winner would pay $17 or less. I wasn't far off with the victor on the very next line of betting at $20. The lesson? Cups aren't won by favourites but rarely are they won by 40-1 bolters either. The winner had attracted heavy support in the lead-up to Derby Day following the announcement Brett Prebble would be flying in from Hong Kong to take the mount. Got as short as $17 in some markets before drifting out to his starting price.

Nine of the last ten winners had drawn barrier 14 or inside and the pattern continued with the victor bouncing from barrier five. Six of the first seven over the line drew 10 or inside, a big advantage when trying to take up a handy position in a slowly run race.

Excuses

Ethiopia pulled up lame. I thought there had to be some reason for his dismal failure because he just went too poorly for it to be true. It may be a blessing in disguise however because he is still learning his craft (yesterday was only his eighth start) and I am convinced he will be a better horse in 12 months time given the opportunity to mature. A good showing this year may have seen him handicapped out of next year's event but his last place finish may allow him to fly in underneath the handicapper's radar again next year. Lights of Heaven just did not stay the 3200m according to jockey Luke Nolen and rider Jamie Mott reported Winchester got fired up and never relaxed in the running. 

Thumbs up

James McDonald. For a few seconds the Kiwi young gun would have been thinking "I'm going to win the Melbourne Cup" but Gai Waterhouse's import Fiorente couldn't catch Green Moon. He must have been disappointed yet his first instinct after the post was to bump fists with winning jock Brett Prebble. A wonderful display of sportsmanship.

Thumbs down

TattsBet. Just like on Derby Day their system crashed again and many punters were left high and dry. Perhaps they should frame a market on what time the system will crash tomorrow? I guess there's no point, seeing you won't be able to get on.

Channel 7. Their inane coverage sank to new lows. Joh Griggs will strip fitter for the run though. She looks like she's been in a good paddock.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

8 Mount Athos (5th) - arguably the best run of the race but got too far back and gave them too much start in a slowly run affair

4 Red Cadeaux (8th) - another who ran on well but had no hope given the slack early tempo

1 Dunaden (14th) - big weight and a firm track did not help his cause but was probably entitled to show a little more in the run home

ROUGHIES FOR YOUR EXOTICS

23 Zabeelionaire (22nd) - drew wide and snagged back to last in a race where it was almost impossible to make up ground

10 Ethiopia (last) - pulled up lame

17 My Quest for Peace (10th) - had a good run in transit just off the pace thanks to his inside draw but couldn't sprint with them when the blowtorch was applied approaching the home turn

16 Mourayan (7th) - had a good run up on the speed but couldn't quicken when the pressure was poured on at the 600m

14 Green Moon (1st) - Brilliantly judged ride by Brett Prebble

LOOKING AHEAD...

VRC Oaks (G1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

The market for this race indicates that bookies clearly think it is a race in three with Zydeco, Dear Demi and Summerbliss the only runners likely to start under $17. Shortly after Zydeco won the Wakeful on Saturday I got a message from an astute form student which read simply "Oaks is all over surely. How do they beat her?" and I'm inclined to agree. Yes Dear Demi was unlucky but she's making a habit of it and her racing pattern means she is always going to need luck as she gets back in her races. Summerbliss has shown talent, but enough to win an Oaks at her third race start? I'm gambling on no. The best longshot for mine is Maraatib who ran on stoutly behind Zydeco in the Wakeful.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

2 Zydeco
1 Dear Demi
6 Maraatib

QUOTE OF THE DAY

See if you can lose them by taking a short-cut through that underpass

- Dodi Fayed, Paris, 1997