Melbourne Cup Preview

I am a big fan of stats but only when they are relevant. Which is why when assessing this year's Cup I'm only focusing on the last 10 years. What happened 50 odd years ago isn't relevant. 

The top weights carried are much less and the minimum weight is higher. Gone are the days of huge 64kg imposts for the number one and bottom weights in the mid to high forty kilo range. The weights have become compressed so now horses like Dunaden and Americain will only be giving away five to six kilos to everyone except Zabeelionaire and Kelinni.

In contrast, when Rising Fast tried to go back-to-back in 1955 he lumped the metric equivalent of 61.5kg only to finish second to Toporoa with the featherweight of 48kg - a discrepancy of 13.5kg. (And Toparoa was saddlecloth number 11 in a field of 24 so there were horses in lighter than him).

Even what happened in the 1990's isn't really relevant as it was a decade dominated by top class Aussie weight-for-age types like Let's Elope, Saintly, Might and Power, Rogan Josh, Jeune and Doriemus.

The last ten years have been dominated by the internationals.

They've won four of the last ten, three of the last six and the last two in a row. They have only missed a place once in the last ten years. Last year they filled the first six placings and nine of the first ten.

But although I have been an unabashed fan of the visitors all along, it would appear that we too have some strong staying types competing this year and they can't be written off entirely because Shocking, Viewed and Efficient have won in the last decade. And don't forget there was that handy little mare who won three.

Let's look at some of the top chances...

Dunaden and Americain

This duo will have to set a weight carrying record to win. Only one horse in the last decade has carried more than 56kg and that was the great Makybe Diva. In the 150 previous runnings of this race just six winners had won the race previously so that means if you back a previous winner in The Cup you are going to do your money 24 times out of 25.

Red Cadeaux

This would be the fairytale result with horse, trainer and jockey looking for redemption after being so cruelly denied last year in the closest photo in Cup history. Meets Dunaden and Americain much better at the weights, he's been here before and his preparation is similar to that of last year.

Cavalryman

This would be another result that would be pure theatre. It's Frankie Dettori's last ride for the powerful Godolphin stable who have placed in this race four times in the past 13 years (Central Park 2nd 1999, Give The Slip 2nd 2001, Beekeeper 3rd 2002, Crime Scene 2nd 2009).

Mount Athos and My Quest For Peace

Luca Cumani is another who has come within a whisker of winning this race not once but twice with Purple Moon and Bauer having to settle for second. My Quest For Peace was the only on-pace runner in the Caulfield Cup to hang on and be in the finish, whilst his stablemate has won his only three starts for the stable and has been solid in the betting since markets opened despite not being seen in this country as yet.

Ethiopia

One of the best local hopes but another who has to rewrite the history books. Since the Australian Derby moved from the Spring to the Autumn in the late '70s no horse has won the Cup as a 4-y-o six months after claiming the blue riband. The last horse to win The Cup at four after claiming the Sydney derby is Phar Lap in 1930 but as previously mentioned the races were a year apart back then.

* Peter Pan won The Cup in '32 after claiming the Derby but that was as a 3-y-o in the same season with 7 st 6 lb (47kg). He would come back two years later and win again with 9 st 10 lb (61.5kg). See what I mean about the irrelevance of weight carrying records from yesteryear?

Galileo's Choice

Prepared by master horseman Dermot Weld who knows what it takes to win this race, having held The Cup aloft twice already with Vintage Crop (1993) and Media Puzzle (2002). This has been a long term goal for this horse and they've got here with a winnable weight. It's been a long time between runs but that's when he performs best.

Green Moon

Every time I think of writing this bloke off after his last start failure I cast my mind back to Jeune in 1994 who flopped in the Cox Plate before claiming the Cup at the juicy odds of 16-1 after being one of the early favourites for the race. Dismiss him at your peril!

Maluckyday

His closing sectionals at Geelong were good but it was a slowly run race and he had no hope of getting home over the top of them. Ran 2nd in this race two years ago so you know he'll stay the trip. One of four runners in the race by super staying stallion Zabeel, the sire of previous winners Might & Power, Efficient and Jezabeel.

Mourayan

Had the luxury of being qualified for this race early on so the stable has been able to give him exactly the preparation they wanted. Granted it's been an unorthodox one with no starts over 2000m this time in and a month between runs but they're convinced that's how he races best. A tough old bloke who races on pace and will be in it for a long way.

Tac De Boistron

This is the guy to watch out for if they get any rain at Flemington because he is an absolute duck. Also has three wins at 2800m and beyond to his name and is handicapped favourably. Oh, and he's French in case you hadn't guessed. They've won the last two.

Lights of Heaven

Another Zabeel who ran a strong 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and won the Brisbane Cup during the Winter Carnival. Alcopop's win in the Mackinnon Stakes has franked the Caulfield Cup form and I think if you like anything that finished top six in that race you can back it with confidence. Mares have a poor record in this race though, winning just 13 times in 150 years and three of those were Makybe Diva. So on average they only win once every 15 years. Although they have won seven of the last 25, but again, three of those were "The Diva". 

Zabeelionaire

If you hadn't already figured it out from the name, this guy is yet another Zabeel. Attempting to emulate the feat of Subzero (1992) by winning The Cup six months after claiming the SA Derby. His Caulfield Cup run was sound and he looked impressive in a strong Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday where his closing sectionals were good. Has always given the impression that the further they go the better he will be and with his lightweight and dour staying pedigree he could be there in the thick of it when the whips are cracking.

Cup Stats - Last 10 years

* Makybe Diva (twice) is the only favourite to win in the last decade. She did not start favourite in her first win in 2003. Bad news for Americain

* Nine of the last ten winners have paid $17 or less. Good news for Dunaden, Americain, Mount Athos, Red Cadeaux, Maluckyday and Green Moon

* Only Makybe Diva (58kg, 2005) has carried more than 56kg in the last ten years. Bad news for Dunaden and Americain

Only Shocking (21, 2009) has started from a barrier wider than 14. Bad news for Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Tac De Boistron, Lights of Heaven and Zabeelionaire

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

8 Mount Athos

4 Red Cadeaux

1 Dunaden

ROUGHIES FOR YOUR EXOTICS

23 Zabeelionaire

10 Ethiopia

17 My Quest for Peace

16 Mourayan

14 Green Moon

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Uh-oh.

- Amelia Earhart, somewhere over the Pacific, 1937