The Get Out Stakes: Geelong Cup - Manikato Stakes wash up / Cox Plate preview

It's been a busy week with meetings at Geelong and Moonee Valley to digest before we even start to think about a crackerjack Cox Plate so without further ado let the starter mount his rostrum and give the starting signal so that the gates can fly open on...

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)

Gatewood won but as so often happens with small fields this turned into a tactical affair and was run at a farcical pace. The overall time was almost seven seconds slower than the time recorded earlier in the day over the same trip in the Benchmark 78. They walked and then sprinted home their last 600m in 32.09.

It won't be an accurate guide to the Melbourne Cup because the winner is highly unlikely to make the final field despite a 1kg penalty. The Mackinnon on Derby Day has been mooted as a potential one-off alternative but with sectionals like that they could always freshen him up for the Patinack or come back in the Autumn and have a crack at the Oakleigh Plate. ;)

Locky's tip - Gatewood win. 1st. Well judged ride by Glen Boss got him home in a sit and sprint affair.

Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Brisbane Winter Carnival form held up here with Sea Siren edging out an unlucky Mental. Daylight third. Follow the Snowden horse. He is above average and there is a nice race in him somewhere.

Locky's tip - Buffering win. Forgive. Savaged in front by Satin Shoes. At least we'll get a price in the Patinack now.

THE WEEK AHEAD...

Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, w-f-a)

A lot of tipsters sit on the fence but I will put it on the line and say that my top five in order is 9-4-1-8-5.

Ocean Park ticks all the boxes with three consecutive wins at G1 level in w-f-a company and he is a lightly raced horse on the upward spiral. Green Moon scares the hell out of me. Shoot Out is the roughie for your exotics. Ethiopia and Rekindled Interest the knockouts. I've left out some quality horses but you can't tip them all.

Three year olds have won just six times in the last 40 years. Eventualy they'll win one and I'll end up with egg on my face but until then I'll be right six times out of seven and gambling is all about playing the percentages.

More Joyous, Sincero and Happy Trails are serious risks at a strong 2040m.

Southern Speed, Glass Harmonium and Linton are good horses but they aren't travelling well enough and Cox Plates aren't won by horses out of form.

Latest market

Moonee Valley Cup (G2, 2500m, set weights plus penalties)

Mida's Touch seems to be working into form with a solid 4th last time out behind Cox Plate hopefuls Ocean Park and Sincero and Caulfield Cup runner-up Alcopop. He showed he has a touch of class when he first started in this country a year ago with placings in both the Makybe Diva and Underwood Stakes. The stable is flying too with Macedon Lodge claiming four winners across two states back on Epsom Handicap/Turnbull Stakes Day. Toss form jockey Hugh Bowman into the mix and you have a recipe for success.

Vase (G2, 2040m, set weights)

The Kiwi colt It's a Dundeel will go around at skinny odds and deservedly so. He's won five from five including a last start win in the Spring Champion Stakes over Proisir who will be about a $9 chance in the Cox Plate later in the day. He should just win and confirm his status as the short priced favourite for next Saturday's VRC Derby.

Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, w-f-a)

For the first time this event will be run at weight for age which has Rangirangdoo pitched in at the weights. Solzhenitsyn isn't as well weighted but has carried large imposts before and won at w-f-a level during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Silent Achiever has form around Ocean Park and Ambidexter's run in the Epsom was super. A tough betting race. I'll tip Solzhenitsyn but simply because I am a parochial Queenslander. (Yes I know Solzhenitsyn is a Kiwi but I have adopted him much the same way I adopted Rough Habit).

* Last post I mentioned interstate trainers with one or two runners in Melbourne. Keep an eye out for Chris Waller, Gerald Ryan, Rob Heathcote, Paul Perry and Guy Walter.