It's that time of year again fellow racing tragics when all our attention turns to Melbourne for the culmination of the Spring Carnival.
THE WEEK THAT WAS...
Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3-y-o, set weights)
As legendary racecaller Ken Howard loved to say "don't take odds on and don't run upstairs". If he'd seen Pierro get beaten last weekend he might well have added "and don't charge up the hill at Caulfield four wide with no cover". I'm not writing the favourite off just yet as it was a Herculean performance to only get run down in the shadows of the post and we've always suspected the winner All To Hard was of above average ability. But as far as I'm concerned you can forget the rest. If Epaulette couldn't run past Pierro after the torrid run he had he never will and the rest were so far back they couldn't have caught them on a short wave radio.
Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, handicap)
I couldn't believe it when they put up $7 about Solzhenitsyn early in the week. It was like stealing wheat from blind chooks. With the 8kg weight advantage he was always going to be the testing material for champion mare More Joyous who, let's face it, had won two glorified barrier trials in Sydney in the lead-up to this.
Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m, w-f-a)
I don't think we saw the Cox Plate winner here. Ocean Park was sound but didn't put them to the sword, Sincero had every possible hope and Alcopop hasn't won for a long time but it was good to see him return to some form.
Schillaci Stakes (G2, 1000m, w-f-a)
Buffering looks to have the major sprints at his mercy over the coming weeks in the absence of Black Caviar and Hay List. He was simply outstanding last weekend and that run should top him off nicely for the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley next Friday night.
Herbert Power Stakes (G2, 2400m, quality)
The seemingly effortless last-to-first victory of Shawaardi bodes ill for the local hopes in the Cups this Spring. Whilst regarded as an above average galloper in his native Europe, he is nonetheless considered a grade below the likes of Americain, Dunaden, Brigantin and Tac de Boistron. But this bloke gave them windburn when he blew past them in the last 50 yards and that does not augur well for the Aussie staying hopes over the remainder of the carnival.
Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies, set weights)
Damien Oliver put a turbulent week behind him to win this race for the fifth time, this time aboard Atlantic Jewel's little sister Commanding Jewel. She won by a space but in terms of potential Oaks chances I think we need to look further back. Dear Demi was solid late after being held up but the real eye-catcher was Darley's Zydeco who flashed into 3rd and was immediately promoted to favourite for the November feature. And you just know she'll stay all day being a Zabeel (Octagonal, Might & Power, Efficient, Jezabeel).
THE WEEK AHEAD...
Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, handicap)
Avoid. This a sit and watch race for me. I can't have any of the locals and without any Australian form I find it difficult to tip an invader. As usual it will probably come down to tactics and luck in running. But if you're one of those obsessive, compulsive types who just has to have a bet in every race (like me) you could do worse than to have a peanut each-way on My Quest For Peace. He's drawn well, lightly weighted, in winning form and ridden by Corey Brown who broke a 12 month drought in Group 1's last week with victory aboard Solzhenitsyn. How often do you see someone snap a run of outs and then back it up with two or three more in quick succesion?
* Southern Speed scratched to target the Cox Plate
Tristarc Stakes (G2, 1400m, fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)
This race suits the topweights. Mosheen looked back to her best at her last start and although she has 58kg she'll only be 3kg above the limit under the SW+P conditions. Looks thrown into this at the relative weights.
Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, set weights plus penalties)
Another SW+P race and like the aforementioned Mosheen, King's Rose looks pitchforked into this with 56.5kg. She'll have to concede no more than 2.5kg to any of her rivals and will carry equal or less weight than five runners who on paper appear to have inferior credentials. Trained by Peter Moody and ridden by Luke Nolen. Apparently they go alright.
Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)
Honorius worked home well behind It's A Dundeel and Proisir in the Spring Champion Stakes. That form line looks stronger than Kabayan's yet the Waterhouse galloper has come up a short priced favourite? I'm quite happy to take the $5 on offer about this bloke as he looks a likely Derby type and the Melbourne form doesn't look as strong.
Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)
This race run next Wednesday will have a massive impact on Melbourne Cup markets. Nominations include the internationals Tac De Boistron, Brigantin, Gatewood, Shahwaardi and Ibicenco while the local charge will be led by the likes of Maluckyday, Tanby, Excluded and Exceptionally and throw in "adopted" Aussies in Mourayan and Midas Touch. In the last ten years three winners of this race have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup (Media Puzzle, Americain & Dunaden) and another two have been placed (On A Jeune, Bauer).
Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)
As I said earlier I think this race is Buffering's for the taking but there are some good types nominated in the form of Snitzerland, Sea Siren, Pampelonne and Bel Sprinter.
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Locky's Lock of the Week
Randwick R8 No. 7 Emotional Circus
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Never take a tip from a man who still has to work for a living
- St Francis of Asissi, Venice Greyhounds (VG), 1214 A.D.
1 comment:
Great write up and look forward to "Lock of Week" getting me out of jail as it has so many times before.
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