Emirates Stakes washup / Zipping Classic preview

I’ll have a full wrap of the Spring next week including my thoughts on the best performances of the carnival by horse, rider and trainer and we’ll also take a look ahead to the upcoming Perth Carnival but in the meantime let’s start by…

LOOKING BACK…

Emirates Stakes (G1, 1600m, quality handicap)

As I mentioned in last week’s preview a return to the mile worked wonders for Happy Trails. It’s got me beat how he started at the price he did given he’d beaten Green Moon over the same trip just three starts back. His next two runs had to be overlooked because he just doesn’t see out a strong 2000m.

In fact the first six were all acceptable runs from my point of view. There’s a nice race in Fawkner somewhere, Secret Admirer again showed her liking for a handicap mile on a seven day back-up, Yosei as usual ran on well, Wall Street produced his best run for sometime and Solzhenitsyn may have had enough.

LOCKY’S SELECTIONS

Fawkner (2^nd) – once again I managed to stop a good thing L

Solzhenitsyn (6^th) – they may have gone to the well one too many times

Secret Admirer (3^rd) – super run to only be beaten an eyelash and added a bit of value to trifectas

Patinack Farm Classic (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

What a shame that we will not get to see Mental race again in this country. He’s promised a lot and finally delivered last Saturday although it must be said he did have the drop on the favourite. Kerrin McEvoy stalked Jim Cassidy on Sea Siren every step of the way and in the end was too strong at the finish.

LOCKY’S SELECTIONS

Sea Siren (2^nd) – a good run but was probably exposed in front a little too soon and as such was a sitting shot for the eventual winner. Follow.

Mental (1^st) – great ride. The way he stalked the favourite was reminiscent of the paparazzi and Paris Hilton.

Buffering (8^th) – there’s something wrong there. He went too badly too be true.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G3, 2500m, quality handicap)

I know Puissance de Lune was super impressive but why have bookmakers immediately installed him as $7 favourite for The Cup next year? The favourite this year started around the same quote. Why would I risk money backing the favourite in the Melbourne Cup at $7 some 12 months out from the race when in all likelihood I can wait a year, back the favourite in the Melbourne Cup and still get $7 about a horse that’s 1) actually going to start for sure and 2) is in form at the time? The bookies are gutless. You are just lucky the media did such a terrible job over the last two weeks or you would have found yourselves in the Thumbs Down column.

LOCKY’S SELECTIONS

Folding Gear (9^th) – disappointing. Had a sweet run in transit and although the winner was a class above he was entitled to do a little more in the run home. May be looking for the spelling paddock.

Puissance de Lune (1^st) – simply outstanding but let’s not get carried away just yet.

Vatuvei (10^th) – another who was disappointing but the Moonee Valley Cup win may have left him a bit flat.

Thumbs up

Damien Oliver. Yes, it does appear he’s been a bad boy and ultimately will probably pay a high price, but the poise he displayed under immense pressure and scrutiny to claim a Group 1 double in the Derby and the Emirates shows why he has been regarded as one of, if not the best in the land for some time.

Thumbs down

The media coverage of the Damien Oliver affair. Don’t get me wrong, if he’s found guilty of wrongdoing he should have the book thrown at him but up until a few days ago he hadn’t even been charged. What ever happened to due process? Some journalists had him tried, convicted, hung, drawn and quartered before he’d even been charged with an offence. Do you remember a little thing called the constitution guys? (You know that document that protects your freedom of opinion and speech? God damn hypocrites!) Feel free to learn how to do your job properly anytime. I’m a blogger so I’m allowed to opine, your job is to report FACTS.

LOOKNG FORWARD…

Zipping Classic (G2, 2400m, w-f-a)

Mourayan looks the class of the field but as I’ve said in previous posts I don’t like following horses that have already had their grand final. This bloke was set for The Cup, not this race. The same could be said for Precedence, Tanby, Exceptionally and Dame Claire, even though some of them didn’t make the final field. Rawnaq is in a similar boat having been aimed at the Derby although he does look well in at the weights. But I will stick with the young horse on the way up in Garud.

LOCKY’S SELECTIONS

1 Garud

2 Rawnaq

3 Mourayan

Sandown Guineas (G2, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Lunar Rise and Tatra fought out the finish in the Carbine Club on Derby Day and will fight it out for favoritism here. Tatra meets his conqueror from that day a kilo better off but I just think that the Cummings horse has more scope for improvement.

LOCKY’S SELECTIONS

1 Lunar Rise

2 Tatra

3 Gold Medals

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Everything appears to be under control. I think I’ll have an early night.

- Navigation Officer on the RMS Titanic, North Atlantic Ocean, 15 April 1912

Oaks washup / Stakes Day preview

Three meetings done and dusted, now there's just one to go. Oaks Day is over and now Stakes Day beckons so let's dive right in.

LOOKING BACK...

VRC Oaks (G1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

The tougher, more seasoned filly won. The favourite Zydeco appeared to have every chance but when it got down to a good old fashioned slog over the last 100m the experience of Dear Demi told. Don't forget she ran 2nd to Pierro in the G1 Champagne Stakes as a 2-y-o back in the Autumn. The second filly was brave but in the end trying to do it all on one preparation may have been too much. In that respect the run of the 3rd placegetter Summerbliss was outstanding as she was having just her third career start. They gapped the rest.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

2 Zydeco (2nd) - tried hard but outstayed. Had every possible hope.

1 Dear Demi (1st) - too tough.

6 Maraatib (4th) - tipped as the best roughie, I hope you had it in your First Fours!

Thumbs Up

Steven Arnold. Top class rider who doesn't get as many opportunities as he should due to his size. Had just three rides yesterday and bagged two winners and a narrow second.

LOOKING FORWARD...

Emirates Stakes (G1, 1600m, quality handicap)

A good field with plenty of chances according to the early market. Can Fawkner give Team Williams another Group 1? Queenslander Solzhenitsyn has been in good form with a win in the G1 Toorak followed by a close-up 3rd in the G2 Crystal Mile. Gai Waterhouse hopes to end her Melbourne Spring Carnival run of outs with Epsom winner Fat Al. Darley has a two-pronged attack with Ambidexter and Free Wheeling. Happy Trails gets back to his pet distance of a mile after his Cox Plate tilt, 2010 winner Wall Street is back for another try, top class mares Streama, Secret Admirer and Yosei back up after last week's Myer Classic and the in-form and lightly weighted Star of Giselle attempts to make it four wins in a row. A tough race as always.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

10 Fawkner

4 Solzhenitsyn

8 Secret Admirer

Patinack Farm Classic (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Sea Siren will start favourite and she looks the testing material but she'll want to bring her A-game. Mental is a serious racehorse and I don't think we've seen the best of him yet. Buffering has to be forgiven one bad run (think Green Moon) and therefore so too does Howmuchdoyouloveme. Temple of Boom is a specialist down the Flemington straight, Fontelina won the straight six race on Derby Day and Hallowell Belle won down the straight two starts back. The 3-y-o's Fire Thunderbolt and Snitzerland are well in at the weight scale.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

10 Sea Siren

5 Mental

1 Buffering

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G3, 2600m, quality handicap)

Division 2 of the Melbourne Cup. Many of the horses who were balloted out of The Cup will be tackling this event as a consolation prize. I cautioned against this in last week's Mackinnon Stakes and hopefully steered you into Alcopop and away from odds-on flop Ocean Park. I also wrote after the Caulfiled Cup that I thought there was a nice race in Folding Gear if they set their sights a little lower. This could be that race. The other runners that have targeted this race specifically are Moonee Valley Cup winner Vatuvei and runaway Bendigo Cup winner Puissance de Lune who will start a short priced favourite.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

4 Folding Gear

11 Puissance de Lune

9 Vatuvei

QUOTE OF THE DAY

$10,000 the win on the four

- Damien Oliver, Moonee Valley, 2010

Melbourne Cup washup / Oaks preview

Another Melbourne Cup has been run and won and hopefully my preview and stats report helped steer you into the winner. I did not tip it in my top three but made it one of my best roughies, in fact my exact words were:

Green Moon

Every time I think of writing this bloke off after his last start failure I cast my mind back to Jeune in 1994 who flopped in the Cox Plate before claiming the Cup at the juicy odds of 16-1 after being one of the early favourites for the race. Dismiss him at your peril!

But I cannot claim too much credit because as I've said I didn't have him in my top three and if you throw eight names out there (1/3 of the field) you're bound to find the winner!

LOOKING BACK...

Internationals vs Locals

I know I said an international would win and we are all claiming Green Moon as an "Australian" but the fact remains that Precedence (9th) was the first Australian bred horse over the line. Green Moon was bred in Ireland and raced in England before coming to Australia a year ago. Fiorente was having his first start in this country. Granted both horses were owned and trained by Aussie interests but claiming them as locals? Turn it up.

If the Australian breeding industry continues its bloody minded obsession with producing precocious, ready-to-race juveniles there will come a time in this country when we do not have a local horse good enough to win our greatest race.

Tempo

The pace of the race was slow, allowing the front runners to sprint home off a dawdling early speed. The final 600m of the 3200m race was timed at 34.07 seconds. That's a faster closing sectional than Woorim recorded in  winning this year's 1100m G1 Oakleigh Plate. It's also one tenth of second faster for the final three furlongs than Unpretentious clocked in winning the MSS Security Sprint (1200m) down the straight two races later. 

Look at it this way. Last start Glencadam Gold led them up in the Caulfield Cup (2400m). He stopped as if shot at the top of the straight and was lucky to beat home the ambulance. Yet he led again yesterday in a longer race and was still there with a winning chance with 300m to go and battled on to finish sixth.

It was impossible for horses worse than midfield to run on. The best two runs in the circumstances (although it's little consolation to those who backed them) were Mount Athos (best last 400m of 22.4 sec) and Jakkalberry (best last 800m of 44.94 sec). Red Cadeaux also ran on strongly from well back but was never really a threat.

Jockey

Brett Prebble must have been giggling to himself as they passed the half mile because he hadn't spent a penny and was close to the lead in a handicap event on a lightly-weighted weight-for-age type with a turn of foot. Once he angled into the clear at the top of the straight anyone who backed him was looking for their bookie because the only question to be asked at that point was "How far does he win by?" A big race rider who knows this track well having won nine races over the four day Flemington carnival not once but twice (1999,2000).

Read what the jockeys had to say after the race here

Statistics

We only concentrated on the last 10 years because I said I don't feel the results going back further are relevant to this race and we weren't far from the mark. 

The top elects always struggle in this race and of the four who battled it out for favourtism (Dunaden, Americain, Red Cadeaux & Mount Athos) the best they could manage between them was fifth. 

I tipped (like most others) that the topweights would struggle and they did although granted they weren't helped by a firmish track and a farcical tempo.

The odds prediction based on recent results was that the winner would pay $17 or less. I wasn't far off with the victor on the very next line of betting at $20. The lesson? Cups aren't won by favourites but rarely are they won by 40-1 bolters either. The winner had attracted heavy support in the lead-up to Derby Day following the announcement Brett Prebble would be flying in from Hong Kong to take the mount. Got as short as $17 in some markets before drifting out to his starting price.

Nine of the last ten winners had drawn barrier 14 or inside and the pattern continued with the victor bouncing from barrier five. Six of the first seven over the line drew 10 or inside, a big advantage when trying to take up a handy position in a slowly run race.

Excuses

Ethiopia pulled up lame. I thought there had to be some reason for his dismal failure because he just went too poorly for it to be true. It may be a blessing in disguise however because he is still learning his craft (yesterday was only his eighth start) and I am convinced he will be a better horse in 12 months time given the opportunity to mature. A good showing this year may have seen him handicapped out of next year's event but his last place finish may allow him to fly in underneath the handicapper's radar again next year. Lights of Heaven just did not stay the 3200m according to jockey Luke Nolen and rider Jamie Mott reported Winchester got fired up and never relaxed in the running. 

Thumbs up

James McDonald. For a few seconds the Kiwi young gun would have been thinking "I'm going to win the Melbourne Cup" but Gai Waterhouse's import Fiorente couldn't catch Green Moon. He must have been disappointed yet his first instinct after the post was to bump fists with winning jock Brett Prebble. A wonderful display of sportsmanship.

Thumbs down

TattsBet. Just like on Derby Day their system crashed again and many punters were left high and dry. Perhaps they should frame a market on what time the system will crash tomorrow? I guess there's no point, seeing you won't be able to get on.

Channel 7. Their inane coverage sank to new lows. Joh Griggs will strip fitter for the run though. She looks like she's been in a good paddock.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

8 Mount Athos (5th) - arguably the best run of the race but got too far back and gave them too much start in a slowly run affair

4 Red Cadeaux (8th) - another who ran on well but had no hope given the slack early tempo

1 Dunaden (14th) - big weight and a firm track did not help his cause but was probably entitled to show a little more in the run home

ROUGHIES FOR YOUR EXOTICS

23 Zabeelionaire (22nd) - drew wide and snagged back to last in a race where it was almost impossible to make up ground

10 Ethiopia (last) - pulled up lame

17 My Quest for Peace (10th) - had a good run in transit just off the pace thanks to his inside draw but couldn't sprint with them when the blowtorch was applied approaching the home turn

16 Mourayan (7th) - had a good run up on the speed but couldn't quicken when the pressure was poured on at the 600m

14 Green Moon (1st) - Brilliantly judged ride by Brett Prebble

LOOKING AHEAD...

VRC Oaks (G1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

The market for this race indicates that bookies clearly think it is a race in three with Zydeco, Dear Demi and Summerbliss the only runners likely to start under $17. Shortly after Zydeco won the Wakeful on Saturday I got a message from an astute form student which read simply "Oaks is all over surely. How do they beat her?" and I'm inclined to agree. Yes Dear Demi was unlucky but she's making a habit of it and her racing pattern means she is always going to need luck as she gets back in her races. Summerbliss has shown talent, but enough to win an Oaks at her third race start? I'm gambling on no. The best longshot for mine is Maraatib who ran on stoutly behind Zydeco in the Wakeful.

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

2 Zydeco
1 Dear Demi
6 Maraatib

QUOTE OF THE DAY

See if you can lose them by taking a short-cut through that underpass

- Dodi Fayed, Paris, 1997

Melbourne Cup Preview

I am a big fan of stats but only when they are relevant. Which is why when assessing this year's Cup I'm only focusing on the last 10 years. What happened 50 odd years ago isn't relevant. 

The top weights carried are much less and the minimum weight is higher. Gone are the days of huge 64kg imposts for the number one and bottom weights in the mid to high forty kilo range. The weights have become compressed so now horses like Dunaden and Americain will only be giving away five to six kilos to everyone except Zabeelionaire and Kelinni.

In contrast, when Rising Fast tried to go back-to-back in 1955 he lumped the metric equivalent of 61.5kg only to finish second to Toporoa with the featherweight of 48kg - a discrepancy of 13.5kg. (And Toparoa was saddlecloth number 11 in a field of 24 so there were horses in lighter than him).

Even what happened in the 1990's isn't really relevant as it was a decade dominated by top class Aussie weight-for-age types like Let's Elope, Saintly, Might and Power, Rogan Josh, Jeune and Doriemus.

The last ten years have been dominated by the internationals.

They've won four of the last ten, three of the last six and the last two in a row. They have only missed a place once in the last ten years. Last year they filled the first six placings and nine of the first ten.

But although I have been an unabashed fan of the visitors all along, it would appear that we too have some strong staying types competing this year and they can't be written off entirely because Shocking, Viewed and Efficient have won in the last decade. And don't forget there was that handy little mare who won three.

Let's look at some of the top chances...

Dunaden and Americain

This duo will have to set a weight carrying record to win. Only one horse in the last decade has carried more than 56kg and that was the great Makybe Diva. In the 150 previous runnings of this race just six winners had won the race previously so that means if you back a previous winner in The Cup you are going to do your money 24 times out of 25.

Red Cadeaux

This would be the fairytale result with horse, trainer and jockey looking for redemption after being so cruelly denied last year in the closest photo in Cup history. Meets Dunaden and Americain much better at the weights, he's been here before and his preparation is similar to that of last year.

Cavalryman

This would be another result that would be pure theatre. It's Frankie Dettori's last ride for the powerful Godolphin stable who have placed in this race four times in the past 13 years (Central Park 2nd 1999, Give The Slip 2nd 2001, Beekeeper 3rd 2002, Crime Scene 2nd 2009).

Mount Athos and My Quest For Peace

Luca Cumani is another who has come within a whisker of winning this race not once but twice with Purple Moon and Bauer having to settle for second. My Quest For Peace was the only on-pace runner in the Caulfield Cup to hang on and be in the finish, whilst his stablemate has won his only three starts for the stable and has been solid in the betting since markets opened despite not being seen in this country as yet.

Ethiopia

One of the best local hopes but another who has to rewrite the history books. Since the Australian Derby moved from the Spring to the Autumn in the late '70s no horse has won the Cup as a 4-y-o six months after claiming the blue riband. The last horse to win The Cup at four after claiming the Sydney derby is Phar Lap in 1930 but as previously mentioned the races were a year apart back then.

* Peter Pan won The Cup in '32 after claiming the Derby but that was as a 3-y-o in the same season with 7 st 6 lb (47kg). He would come back two years later and win again with 9 st 10 lb (61.5kg). See what I mean about the irrelevance of weight carrying records from yesteryear?

Galileo's Choice

Prepared by master horseman Dermot Weld who knows what it takes to win this race, having held The Cup aloft twice already with Vintage Crop (1993) and Media Puzzle (2002). This has been a long term goal for this horse and they've got here with a winnable weight. It's been a long time between runs but that's when he performs best.

Green Moon

Every time I think of writing this bloke off after his last start failure I cast my mind back to Jeune in 1994 who flopped in the Cox Plate before claiming the Cup at the juicy odds of 16-1 after being one of the early favourites for the race. Dismiss him at your peril!

Maluckyday

His closing sectionals at Geelong were good but it was a slowly run race and he had no hope of getting home over the top of them. Ran 2nd in this race two years ago so you know he'll stay the trip. One of four runners in the race by super staying stallion Zabeel, the sire of previous winners Might & Power, Efficient and Jezabeel.

Mourayan

Had the luxury of being qualified for this race early on so the stable has been able to give him exactly the preparation they wanted. Granted it's been an unorthodox one with no starts over 2000m this time in and a month between runs but they're convinced that's how he races best. A tough old bloke who races on pace and will be in it for a long way.

Tac De Boistron

This is the guy to watch out for if they get any rain at Flemington because he is an absolute duck. Also has three wins at 2800m and beyond to his name and is handicapped favourably. Oh, and he's French in case you hadn't guessed. They've won the last two.

Lights of Heaven

Another Zabeel who ran a strong 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and won the Brisbane Cup during the Winter Carnival. Alcopop's win in the Mackinnon Stakes has franked the Caulfield Cup form and I think if you like anything that finished top six in that race you can back it with confidence. Mares have a poor record in this race though, winning just 13 times in 150 years and three of those were Makybe Diva. So on average they only win once every 15 years. Although they have won seven of the last 25, but again, three of those were "The Diva". 

Zabeelionaire

If you hadn't already figured it out from the name, this guy is yet another Zabeel. Attempting to emulate the feat of Subzero (1992) by winning The Cup six months after claiming the SA Derby. His Caulfield Cup run was sound and he looked impressive in a strong Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday where his closing sectionals were good. Has always given the impression that the further they go the better he will be and with his lightweight and dour staying pedigree he could be there in the thick of it when the whips are cracking.

Cup Stats - Last 10 years

* Makybe Diva (twice) is the only favourite to win in the last decade. She did not start favourite in her first win in 2003. Bad news for Americain

* Nine of the last ten winners have paid $17 or less. Good news for Dunaden, Americain, Mount Athos, Red Cadeaux, Maluckyday and Green Moon

* Only Makybe Diva (58kg, 2005) has carried more than 56kg in the last ten years. Bad news for Dunaden and Americain

Only Shocking (21, 2009) has started from a barrier wider than 14. Bad news for Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Tac De Boistron, Lights of Heaven and Zabeelionaire

LOCKY'S SELECTIONS

8 Mount Athos

4 Red Cadeaux

1 Dunaden

ROUGHIES FOR YOUR EXOTICS

23 Zabeelionaire

10 Ethiopia

17 My Quest for Peace

16 Mourayan

14 Green Moon

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Uh-oh.

- Amelia Earhart, somewhere over the Pacific, 1937

Cox Plate washup / Derby Day preview

The wash-up comes a bit later this week with so much to digest from a massive Cox Plate Day and no major mid-week Cups lead up race to worry about. That's no disrespect to the time-honoured Bendigo Cup - the race that stops a suburb.

We'll also have a better idea of what the weekend ahead holds in store now that we know the final acceptances for Flemington this Saturday.

There's a lot to get through and the best place to start is with the race they call "the best two minutes in sport" so let's see what we can learn from....

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, w-f-a)

I think the best horse won and there were few excuses for any of the beaten brigade. Ocean Park gave the second horse eight kilos and a huge head start and still managed to circle the field four and five wide and get the chocolates. Daylight third.

I make the decision every year to boycott the 3-y-o's in this race because whilst they do win sometimes, they don't win many, just six in the last 40 years. Sooner or later a 3-y-o will win one and I'll be left looking stupid but I'll be right more often than not. Just watch too, when I am finally wrong some idiot will bag me and say "you said a 3-y-o couldn't win". No, I didn't. I said they rarely win, that's why I take them on.

As for the younger horses All Too Hard jumped well and benefited from a truly run race. How much did that quarter of a length cost him? I'm saying $20 million conservatively because after his Guineas win I had him as a $20 million dollar stud prospect, and if he adds a Cox Plate to that I reckon you can double that figure. But it's a moot point because in all likelihood owner Nathan Tinkler will stand him at Patinack Farm rather than sell him to a rival stud. He's not short of a quid.

I thought the other 3-y-o's were sound with Pierro a game third after his gutbuster a fortnight earlier in the Guineas and Proisir only knocked up the last little bit after making all the running out in front.

Ethiopa put in a huge run that will tune him up nicely for next Tuesday if the stable decides to run and Southern Speed likewise showed she's back on track for a tilt at Flemington with the fastest closing 200m of the race.

As I predicted More Joyous, Sincero and Happy Trails failed to run out a strong ten furlongs and Glass Harmonium and Linton were out of their depth.

Green Moon and Rekindled Interest were the hard luck stories of the race, coming back to scale bruised and battered while Shoot Out blew any chance he had when he bungled the start. It's doubtful he would have troubled the first two but he may have run into a place.

Locky's tip - Ocean Park win. 1st. I hope you followed me in and got the juicy odds on offer.

Moonee Valley Cup (G2, 2500m, set weights plus penalties)

Connections of the winner Vatuvei are likely to pay up for the Melbourne Cup even though he's unlikely to start, even if by some miracle he does sneak into the final field. The reason being that there is a $100,000 bonus this year for any horse that is balloted out of The Cup but wins the Queen Elizabeth on Emirates Stakes Day next Saturday. He's probably still six to twelve months away anyway and we could well see him back here making an even bigger impact next Spring.

Locky's tip - Mida's Touch win. 8th but had excuses.

The Vase (G2, 2040m, 3-y-o set weights)

Super Cool gave punters chills when he knocked over the short priced favourite It's a Dundeel but the latter will retain favourtism for this Saturday's feature. I cannot for the life of me explain why there is such a discrepancy in the Derby market because the Kiwi appeared to have his chance and wasn't making ground in the run to the line. Is it because he is already a huge liability for the bookies or do the punters think he'll be better suited at Flemington?

Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Another victory for the visiting trainers with the Kiwi Silent Achiever getting the prize for the Roger James stable. It was their only runner all day and it made Ocean Park look like a good thing later in the afternoon for the smarties who followed the form line.

Locky's tip - Solzhenitsyn win. 3rd. Not suited by the w-f-a conditions but stuck to his guns. One of the main chances in the Emirates on the final day of the carnival.

* As alluded to above lately we've been following visiting trainers who only bring one or two horses to the races and last week Gary Hennessy (Ocean Park), Roger James (Silent Achiever) and Paul Perry (Hidden Warrior) all saluted the judge. The Vics with small teams weren't to be outdone either with Paul Gelagotis (Mourinho), Jason Warren (Freereturn) and Mathew Ellerton/Simon Zahra (Star of Giselle) also claiming the winners cheque with their only runner all day.

Don't forget to leave a comment if you think the tips have been helpful... or terrible!

THE WEEK AHEAD...

VRC Derby (G1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Plenty are keen to follow It's a Dundeel after his defeat at the skinny odds last weekend but Super Cool looked stronger to the line and will be a much better price. Hvasstan won well at his last start and the stable is flying with two winners from two runners in as many weeks so he cannot be left out of calculations. I also liked the way that despite having an interrupted passage he still attacked the finishing line the way I attack an open bar. But I'll stick with Honorius as I've said all along I cannot wait for this bloke to get to Flemington and 2500m.

Mackinnon Stakes (G1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Ocean Park will start at almost unbackable odds after his dominant Cox Plate win but this event has been a graveyard for horses backing up after the weight for age championship. Only So You Think, Better Loosen Up and Rubiton have won the double in the last 25 years. I'll be looking for a horse that has been kept for this race as a specific target rather than a horse that is using it as an afterthought or a consolation prize. The runners that tick those boxes are Alcopop and December Draw.

Myer Classic (G1, 1600m, fillies and mares set weights)

The set weight conditions favour the top class mares in a race like this. Group 1 winners like Streama, Secret Admirer and Yosei meet the rest of this field at level weights but if this were a handicap they would be conceding most of this lot six to eight kilos. Streama will start a short priced favourite but beware of Secret Admirer who drops back to fillies and mares grade after competing against the boys all Spring.

Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)

I like Sizzling in a race that should be a hotly contested betting affair. I thought his first run was enormous as he was under pressure all the way and still had the cheek to fight on in the straight. He'll derive great benefit from the run and the Brisbane Winter form is stacking up with Sea Siren and Mental running the quinella in the Manikato, Vatuvei winning the Moonee Valley Cup and Solzhenitsyn claiming the Toorak. Snitzerland, Fire Thunderbolt and Lankan Rupee come out of the same race and therefore must be included in multiples. Happy to risk Nechita.

Lexus (G3, 2500m, quality handicap)

This is shaping as one of the races of the carnival as it is the last throw at the stumps for many a Cup hopeful. Gatewood (1st, Geelong Cup), Tanby (1st, Bart Cummings), Kelinni (2nd, Metropolitan), Excluded (2nd, Herbert Power) Reuben Percival (2nd, Moonee Valley Cup) and Exceptionally (3rd, Herbert Power) headline a field of 13 runners that are all still paid up for the Cup and all need to win to gain a start. Tanby is currently the highest placed in the order of entry at 31st. I'm leaning towards Excluded after his solid second behind Shahwardi three weeks ago. The stable had a miserable day last weekend but can bounce back with big race rider Craig Williams in the saddle. Won at this track three starts back.

Wakeful Stakes (G2, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights plus penalties)

The final lead-up to the Oaks five days later. Tyanna from the Griffiths yard has been backed in early markets but Dear Demi and Zydeco will start almost equal favourites after their stellar runs in the Thousand Guineas. Guy Walter's Zuccotto isn't hopeless either. A tough race. Leaning slightly to Dear Demi as she is more seasoned and didn't have the best of luck last start.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I bet you can't fly over that mountain
- Hansie Cronje, South Africa, 1992

Geelong Cup - Manikato Stakes wash up / Cox Plate preview

It's been a busy week with meetings at Geelong and Moonee Valley to digest before we even start to think about a crackerjack Cox Plate so without further ado let the starter mount his rostrum and give the starting signal so that the gates can fly open on... 

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)

Gatewood won but as so often happens with small fields this turned into a tactical affair and was run at a farcical pace. The overall time was almost seven seconds slower than the time recorded earlier in the day over the same trip in the Benchmark 78. They walked and then sprinted home their last 600m in 32.09.

It won't be an accurate guide to the Melbourne Cup because the winner is highly unlikely to make the final field despite a 1kg penalty. The Mackinnon on Derby Day has been mooted as a potential one-off alternative but with sectionals like that they could always freshen him up for the Patinack or come back in the Autumn and have a crack at the Oakleigh Plate. ;)

Locky's tip - Gatewood win. 1st. Well judged ride by Glen Boss got him home in a sit and sprint affair.

Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Brisbane Winter Carnival form held up here with Sea Siren edging out an unlucky Mental. Daylight third. Follow the Snowden horse. He is above average and there is a nice race in him somewhere.

Locky's tip - Buffering win. Forgive. Savaged in front by Satin Shoes. At least we'll get a price in the Patinack now.

THE WEEK AHEAD...

Cox Plate (G1, 2040m, w-f-a)

A lot of tipsters sit on the fence but I will put it on the line and say that my top five in order is 9-4-1-8-5.

Ocean Park ticks all the boxes with three consecutive wins at G1 level in w-f-a company and he is a lightly raced horse on the upward spiral. Green Moon scares the hell out of me. Shoot Out is the roughie for your exotics. Ethiopia and Rekindled Interest the knockouts. I've left out some quality horses but you can't tip them all.

Three year olds have won just six times in the last 40 years. Eventualy they'll win one and I'll end up with egg on my face but until then I'll be right six times out of seven and gambling is all about playing the percentages.

More Joyous, Sincero and Happy Trails are serious risks at a strong 2040m.

Southern Speed, Glass Harmonium and Linton are good horses but they aren't travelling well enough and Cox Plates aren't won by horses out of form.

Latest market

Moonee Valley Cup (G2, 2500m, set weights plus penalties)

Mida's Touch seems to be working into form with a solid 4th last time out behind Cox Plate hopefuls Ocean Park and Sincero and Caulfield Cup runner-up Alcopop. He showed he has a touch of class when he first started in this country a year ago with placings in both the Makybe Diva and Underwood Stakes. The stable is flying too with Macedon Lodge claiming four winners across two states back on Epsom Handicap/Turnbull Stakes Day. Toss form jockey Hugh Bowman into the mix and you have a recipe for success.

Vase (G2, 2040m, set weights)

The Kiwi colt It's a Dundeel will go around at skinny odds and deservedly so. He's won five from five including a last start win in the Spring Champion Stakes over Proisir who will be about a $9 chance in the Cox Plate later in the day. He should just win and confirm his status as the short priced favourite for next Saturday's VRC Derby.

Crystal Mile (G2, 1600m, w-f-a)

For the first time this event will be run at weight for age which has Rangirangdoo pitched in at the weights. Solzhenitsyn isn't as well weighted but has carried large imposts before and won at w-f-a level during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Silent Achiever has form around Ocean Park and Ambidexter's run in the Epsom was super. A tough betting race. I'll tip Solzhenitsyn but simply because I am a parochial Queenslander. (Yes I know Solzhenitsyn is a Kiwi but I have adopted him much the same way I adopted Rough Habit).

* Last post I mentioned interstate trainers with one or two runners in Melbourne. Keep an eye out for Chris Waller, Gerald Ryan, Rob Heathcote, Paul Perry and Guy Walter.

Locky's Lock of the Week

Moonee Valley R1 No. 8 Shamus Award  

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I'll have the veal

- Buddha, India, 483 B.C.

Caulfield Cup washup / Geelong Cup - Manikato Stakes preview

What did we learn on the weekend? Follow interstate trainers who take small teams of horses to Melbourne for the Spring because they don't make these trips on a whim.

On Saturday we saw Liam Birchlely (Whateverwhenever), Con Karakatsanis (Howmuchdoyouloveme), John O'Shea (Lightinthenite), Guy Walter (Streama) & Gerald Ryan (Mrs Onassis) all victorious. For the first three the winner was the only runner they saddled up all day, the last two had only one other runner on the program, in the case of Guy Walter both were in the same race.

As for the Melbourne Cup is the picture any clearer or has the weekend's racing just muddied the waters even more? What of the support races? Who are the horses to follow going forward as we move onwards towards Cox Plate Day and the Flemington Carnival? It's time to assess...

THE WEEK THAT WAS...

Caulfield Cup (G1, 2400m, handicap)

I don't know what to make of this race. The first three horses out of the straight were three of the last four horses over the line, which would normally indicate they went too hard and set it up for the swoopers. Yet the overall time wasn't fast. All honours with the winner Dunaden though. Topweight of 58kg, extreme outside barrier of 22, hooked back to the tail, gave them a start and gave them a beating. Craig Williams at his best. I forecast in a previous post that the locals would find it tough against the internationals and I've seen nothing on the weekend to alter that opinion. 1st, 4th and 5th were overseas raiders and I can't see Alcopop and Lights of Heaven pushing on to The Cup.

There may be a nice race for Folding Gear in the coming weeks if they set their sights a bit lower. He worked to the line well after getting into a bumping duel down the straight just as he was starting to make his run.

Locky's tip - My Quest for Peace e/w. Solid 4th. Sat behind the speed and stuck on well when all the other pacemakers folded faster than Superman on laundry day.

* Dunaden has earned a 1kg penalty for his win taking his Melbourne Cup weight to 59kg. That's 4.5kg more than he carried to victory last year. The highest weight carried to victory since the change to the metric system 40 years ago is the 58.5kg lumped by Think Big in his second Cup victory in 1975.

Caulfiled Sprint (G2, 1100m, handicap)

Howmuchdoyouloveme continues to improve each time they raise the bar. First up for 10 weeks he stepped up from a Listed race at Grafton to a Group 2 on Caulfield Cup Day and won with a leg in the air. Headed for the Salinger on Derby Day which is shaping as a cracking race.

Tristarc Stakes (G2, 1400m, fillies and mares set weights plus penalties)

I tipped that the topweights were well in at the SW+P, I just tipped the wrong one. Numbers 2,3 and 4 filled the placings. The cream tends to rise to the top in these SW+P races for fillies and mares so that's something to keep in mind for the coming weeks.

Locky's tip - Mosheen win. Disappointing 6th. Appeared to have every possible hope.

Norman Robinson Stakes (G3, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

A great ride here by Glen Boss saw Hvasstan get home in a rough and ready finish. The stewards have given Nick Hall a holiday after a ride reminiscent of Ray Cochrane on Taufan's Melody on this day 14 years ago. It was an emotional win for the Gelagotis boys after losing their father earlier in the week.

Many of these will push on to the Derby but it was a bunched finish which suggests they are a fairly even lot. I think the classic winner will come from another race, either the Cox Plate or the Vase at Moonee Valley this weekend.

Locky's tip - Honorius win. Good 2nd. Struck interference in the straight and was promoted to second on protest but the winner also had a checkered passage so no excuses. Looks like he'll appreciate Flemington though.

Moonga Stakes (G3, 1400m, set weights plus penalties)

Well I found a way to put the brakes on what appeared to be the good thing of the day on paper. Another great ride won this race with Craig Williams cutting the corner on Whateverwhenever to bag another winner on his way to a winning treble.

Locky's tip - King's Rose win. Sound 2nd. Had her chance to win but the big first-up run after a five month break may have told.

THE WEEK AHEAD...

Geelong Cup (G3, 2400m, handicap)

A field of just seven will greet the starter but they are a select bunch. The internationals dominate the market as you would expect after the result on the weekend. Gatewood looks best in at the weights and has the benefit of a run in this country under his belt. Forgive his run last start as he ran into more dead ends than a learner driver down the straight. Brigantin has thrived at Weribee from all reports.

Manikato Stakes (G1, 1200m, w-f-a)

I'm a huge Buffering fan. You won't get any flash price but he should just win. There are some talented ones up against him but this bloke is such a professional who just goes out there and does the job every week. Sea Siren the danger.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Never give a sucker a sniff

- Mother Teresa, Calcutta, 1992