G1 Caulfield Cup Day - 17.10.2015

What a fascinating G1 Caulfield Cup. 

Will the silverware be going to Japan for the second year in a row or could it go across the ditch with Murray Baker, Donna Logan and John Sargent flying the flag for NZ? Maybe it will be one of the European invaders or perhaps one of the local trainers - Chris Waller has three runners and Kris Lees has a pair. Let's not forget John O'Shea and the mighty Godolphin operation or the in-form Hayes/Dabernig partnership either. Mouth watering stuff.

The support races also interest me because outside the Cup winner last year six of the other nine victors - Stratum Star (Gothic Stakes), Set Square (Ethereal Stakes), Lucky Hussler (Moonga Stakes), Sweet Idea (Tristarc Stakes), Contributer (David Jones Cup) and Miracles Of Life (Caulfield Sprint D.H.) - have gone on to win G1 races in the last 12 months.

Who's Hot?

The training partnership of David Hayes and Tom Dabernig has had a week to remember.

Last Saturday they bagged a G1 double with Criterion and Stay With Me. Not content with success in the big smoke they headed to Cranbourne on Sunday and picked up another winner followed by two more on Tuesday at Benalla. Then they notched a treble at the Wednesday Caulfield meeting including two Black Type races.

They have a number of runners at Caulfield tomorrow but the bookies think their best hopes are Hell Or Highwater (Race 1 No. 6), Dawn Of Hope (Race 4 No. 10), Sacred Eye (Race 5 No. 13) and Rising Romance (Race 9 No. 14). 

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day.***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Set Square: Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years and nine of the winners returned between $8.50 and $16. Seven of them carried 55kg or less. Five of the last seven winners contested the G1 Turnbull Stakes at their last run. 

Mongolian Khan has rocketed into favouritism after his slashing closing third last weekend behind Criterion in the G1 Caulfield Stkaes. Mummify (2003) is the only winner of this race to have come via that w-f-a contest seven days earlier since 1996 and I just question how good the local form is compared to the international visitors. Still he hasn't put a foot wrong this preparation and is a worthy favourite.

Set Square loomed into calculations for this race after her last start third (below) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes behind Preferment and Royal Descent. Only two mares have won this race in the last 18 years but with just 51kg on her back she can't be dismissed lightly. She has tactical speed so she will probably be in the first half of the field and she's proven at the journey having won last year's G1 VRC Oaks.

Royal Descent meets Set Square 3.5kg worse off here than last start (above) and she just always seems to find a way to get beaten. The extreme outside barrier makes it tough but she did finish an unlucky fifth in this race to Fawkner two years ago when she carried a half kilo more. What worries me is that all her best form in the ensuing 24 months has been from 1600m to 2000m.

Less than three and a half lengths covered the first dozen horses over the line so lets look at those who were close up behind the aforementioned two.

Who Shot Thebarman (8th) just continues to tick along nicely and he is one of many who will relish the mile and a half. His record at 2400m+ reads nine starts for four wins, a second in a G1 Sydney Cup, a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup and a fourth in a G1 BMW. He'll have to be ridden for luck from the wide draw though. Volkstok'n'barrell (9th) had a pretty good run but got swamped late and I do have a query on him at a strong 2400m. He will appreciate some weight relief here with just 53.5kg after competing at w-f-a level. Gust Of Wind (11th) went through the line like a staying type and the last time this mare got to 2400m (fourth-up too) she won the G1 ATC Oaks beating Winx by two and a half lengths. She hasn't seen a lot of clear galloping room at her last two runs either. Rising Romance (12th) didn't get a great run in transit in the race but she should get a better passage here from barrier two. She was a half length second to Admire Rakti in this race last year after disappointing at her previous run and stays at the 53kg. Protectionist (13th) and Magicool (14th) just don't look to be going well enough to figure here.

Now it's time to look at the international brigade.

Snow Sky has drawn favourably and if he wins jockey Damien Oliver will equal the record for most wins in this race (five) currently held by the legendary Scobie Breasley. Fame Game was excellent in his last start second (below) in the G1 Tenno Sho at Kyoto and he is also drawn to get a dream run from barrier one. The other Japanese raider Hokko Brave didn't fare as well in the barrier draw but he's in good hands because his jockey Craig Williams has won this race twice in the last four years. He finished behind Fame Game that day but is considered the better 2400m horse of the two whereas his compatriot is more of a two miler. Our Ivanhowe has also drawn wide but given he'll get back that's not so bad. He won't want a really firm track but he drops to 56kg here after a brave effort last start with 60kg. He's in a good stable with his trainer Lee Freedman having won this race four times previously. Trip To Paris has won twice at 2400m but his last five runs have been at 3200m to 4000m so I think the G1 Melbourne Cup will suit him better. He might just be a bit too dour for this but watch for him and his stablemate Red Cadeaux at Flemington in a couple of weeks.

Lucia Valentina was third in the race last year at the same stage of her prep and with the same weight but she had won two of her three lead-up runs and this year she doesn't appear to be going as well. She is trying to emulate 1997 winner Might And Power by claiming this race straight after a failure in the G1 Epsom Handicap. I don't think this mare is as good as that bloke. Just quietly. Barrier 20 doesn't help either.

Magnapal automatically qualified for this race with victory in the G3 Naturalism Stakes and he's earned a crack because he's in super form this prep winning his first three starts before a narrow defeat last time out in the G3 JRA Cup. He drops seven kilos from that run and although drawn wide he should manage to get across handy. He's never won beyond 2000m but he does have five top two finishes from eight starts at Caulfield.

Lastly we have a quartet of runners coming via the Sydney staying races and I'll start with the Godolphin trio.

Magic Hurricane (4E) will need four scratchings to get a start but if he does scrape into the field he has no weight and a good draw and his last start win in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap was dominant. The drawback is that was a much weaker field and only two winners of that race have completed the double in the last 30 years - Railings (2005) and Tawqeet (2006). 

His stablemates Complacent (2E) and Hauraki fought out a thrilling finish (below) in the the G3 Craven Plate. The former conceded the latter a kilo and fought back to win after being headed in the straight but like Magic Hurricane he needs a few to come out just to get a start. Hauraki on the other hand is safely in the field and the last time he got out to 2400m he was a close second to Mongolian Khan in the G1 Australian Derby. They met at level weights on that occasion whereas here he will get a 2kg advantage and is double the price. His only two runs the Melbourne way have been dismal though.

Complacent (inside) fights back to outlast his stablemate Hauraki (outside) in the G3 Craven Plate

Grand Marshal finished midfield in the aforementioned G3 Craven Plate and just like his two previous runs it showed he is progressing nicely towards his major Spring goal in the G1 Melbourne Cup. He won the G1 Sydney Cup in the Autumn so he probably won't even start to get warm here until it's all over and he does tend to race best with the sting out of the ground. Five starts at 2400m or beyond for two wins, a second, a third and a fourth.

Locky's Selections

2. Snow Sky

4. Our Ivanhowe
6. Mongolian Khan
16. Gust Of Wind

OTHER BETS

Honesta (Caulfield Race 4 No. 3) was unlucky not to claim the G1 Flight Stakes last start when she just missed Speak Fondly. That filly has form around Exosphere and Press Statement which is looking pretty hot right about now. All these fillies are stepping up to 2000m for the first time but this girl's sire Monaco Consul won a G1 VRC Derby and ran third in the G1 Caulfield Cup of 2010 so she has the pedigree to say she will see out the trip.

Sadler's Lake (Caulfield Race 6 No. 6) didn't see a lot of clear galloping room in the home straight last start (below) in the G1 Epsom Handicap so his four length ninth was better than the form guide would suggest. He drops a kilo in weight from that run too despite the fact he is dropping back to a G2 from a G1. He won the G3 Rough Habit Plate by almost two lengths over this trip during the Brisbane Winter Carnival.

Teronado (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) was another who caught the eye (above) in the G1 Epsom Handicap when he flashed home from last on the turn to finish sixth and ran past some big names in the process. His last 400m was the second fastest of the race and was only 0.06 seconds slower than that recorded by Winx. He needs a dry track and although his mile record reads badly his "failures" include a fifth in a G1 Australian Guineas and a fourth in a G1 Randwick Guineas.

Fell Swoop (Randwick Race 7 No. 5) is my pin-up boy and I'm glad to see him back because I just love this bloke. I like the fact that he's had a four week freshen up here because he played up a bit prior to his last start which was uncharacteristic and looked to me like a horse who was showing the signs of a long prep. He's won his last four and probably should have won his last nine in a row because he was desperately unlucky the day he was defeated. I've stayed solid all along and I'm not dropping off now.

G1 Caulfield Guineas Day - 10.10.2015

I tipped so badly last week that my audience stormed out and demanded his money back.

But it was worth it just to watch the bookies get absolutely smashed by the punters at Randwick with eight of the nine favourites successful and the other winner a well tried $3.60 second elect. 

It was also worth it simply to see James McDonald, John O'Shea and the entire Godolphin operation put on an absolute clinic with five Stakes winners including the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.

We also saw a few top quality horses strut their stuff with Exosphere winning as he pleased in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes followed by Terravista and his effortless victory in the G2 Premiere Stakes before Winks overcame another luckless run to dash away with the G1 Epsom Handicap.

Four majors at Caulfield tomorrow - the G1 Caulfield Guineas, G1 Thousand Guineas, G1 Caulfield Stakes and G1 Toorak Handicap - plus two G2's, two G3's and a Listed race plus we also have the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney.

Who's Hot?

It's impossible to ignore trainer John O'Shea and the Godolphin Team after their five winners last weekend at Randwick. All were at Black Type level with the highlight being the victory of Magic Hurricane in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap.

* Unfortunately stable jockey James McDonald is unavailable this weekend after copping a six meeting careless riding ban

The Royal Blue will be chasing more Stakes prizemoney in Melbourne tomorrow with Thar (Race 1 No. 5), Contributer (Race 6 No. 4) and Shards (Race 9 No. 7) but they also have runners at Randwick and Kembla Grange.

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny morning with the chance of a late afternoon shower.***

Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Press Statement: In the last 10 years only two winners have returned more than $7.50. Six of the last nine were coming off a win at their previous run.

Press Statement cruised to victory last start (below) in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes. Prior to that he was a desperately unlucky fifth in the G1 Golden Rose behind Exosphere and Speak Fondly and that form is looking rock solid now. He's dominating the market but a few hotpots have been rolled in the last decade including Rich Enuff, Pierro, Denman and Court Command. The wide barrier (14) is my only concern.

You'll get some juicy odds if you like anything outside the favourite and recent winners All Too Hard (2012) and Starspangledbanner (2009) did return double figure dividends so let's start with a look at the traditional lead-up race the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Six of the last ten winners of this feature came off a top four finish in that race. 

Bon Aurum won the race (below) and he's come a long way in a short time since making his debut three and a half months ago in an Echuca maiden. Prior to that he beat Lizard Island and that colt has since romped in by three lengths. He's an adaptable type who can lead, sit close to the speed or come from the back but he has been up for a while and is trying to do it all in his first prep. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won this race twice in the last four years. 

Bon Aurum hangs on to edge out Tulsa in the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude

Tulsa was the eye-catcher behind Bon Aurum when he flashed home from last to just miss. He gives every indication that he's looking for 1600m now but like Press Statement he is going to have to overcome a horror barrier. Only one winner in the last nine years has drawn a double figure gate but given his racing pattern it may not be the end of the world because he's going to drift back anyway. 

Dal Cielo did well to hang on for third behind Bon Aurum and Tulsa last start after setting a pretty hot speed in front. If he can get softer lead tomorrow he'll give them something to chase but like many of these he is stepping out beyond 1400m for the first time so the journey has to be a query. You have to respect the stable though because Murray Baker has had Spring G1 successes at Caulfield in recent years with Lion Tamer and It's A Dundeel.

Sovereign Nation (7th beaten two and a half lengths) chased them all home that day and has since franked the form by winning the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes at his next start. That race has been an OK guide in the last few years. Whobegotyou (2008) is the last horse to complete the double but recent winners Cararra (2009), Pierro (2012) and Divine Calling (2013) all finished second in this race. 

Ready For Victory is becoming a costly conveyance because he's started $4.25 or shorter at all three runs this campaign without winning. He looks to me like a horse who is looking for at least 1600m because last start he had to be ridden hard the whole way and still didn't get warm until it was all over. I like the way he ran through the line and blinkers on first time might just switch him on.

Basset has form around Press Statement (below) via the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He's had an identical campaign this time in with just the one start over 1100m for a win then straight to the G1 mile. Peter Moody knows more about training winners than I do but it seems an odd preparation and I just wonder if he is seasoned enough to win this at just his fourth career start. On the plus side he will be close to the lead making his own luck

Of  the rest Tarzino won well last start but I have to query the form given the second and third placegetters were thrashed at Flemington last Sunday. Shards was no match for Press Statement last time out but he beat third easily and the Godolphin operation showed last week that their horses are always ready to peak on major race days. Rageese has form behind Exosphere, Speak Fondly and Press Statement so he has place claims. Lizard Island has been on the heels of Bon Aurum twice this prep and is proven at the mile after bolting in last start albeit in a Pakenham maiden. Last Bullet matched motors with Ready For Victory over the final stages last start and was less than two lengths from winner despite still being last at the 200m. He ran the fastest final furlong and only Tulsa had a better sectional time for the last 800m.

Locky's Selections

1. Press Statement

15. Tulsa
8. Sovereign Nation
10. Last Bullet

Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no an early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Fawkner: In the last 15 renewals of this race only three winners paid more than $7 and four of the last six winners came via the G1 Underwood Stakes and finished in the first two.

Kermadec didn't win by a big margin last start but if you saw the race (below) you'll know he won with authority and what looked to be a bit up his sleeve. The second horse Royal Descent has since gone within a nostril of winning last Sunday's G1 Turnbull Stakes and the seventh horse Hauraki (beaten five lengths) almost pipped Complacent last Saturday in the G3 Craven Plate. First time beyond 1600m is a question mark and he wouldn't want to get too far back either as this may be a sprint home.

Pornichet really gave Kermadec something to chase last start (above) and he looked home when he skipped clear topping the rise. That run should top him off nicely for this and let's face it he was never going to hit his peak until he got to the 2000m. He's three from three at this trip with his last being a dominant two and a half length victory in this year's G1 Doomben Cup. He's the likely leader in a small, w-f-a field which looks devoid of pace and that could be an advantage as we've seen in recent weeks.

Fawkner won this race last year and 12 months earlier claimed the G1 Caulfield Cup so he's shown an undeniable liking for this circuit. He's had the perfect preparation for this with a first-up victory over the mile in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes followed by a narrow second to Mourinho (below) in the G1 Underwood Stakes at 1800m. I loved the way he worked through the line and he looks like a horse crying out for 2000m. He has the ability to sit handy to the speed if they want to walk in front which is a big tick.

Contributer put in a much improved effort last start (above) running the second fastest final 800m of the race but it was impossible to make ground because it turned into a sprint home. He was one of the few closers to take any ground of the leaders and was only beaten two and a half lengths in the end so he gets a pass mark. He's improving with every run with the stable obviously looking to peak him in two weeks time for the G1 Cox Plate so a bold showing here wouldn't surprise. He's drifted from $6 out to $10 in early betting.

Criterion was second in this race last year and went on in the Autumn to destroy a top quality field (below) in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He then headed overseas for three starts and did manage to grab third in the G1 QEII Cup in Hong Kong so he is clearly a high quality animal. He is going into this having not appeared on a racetrack for more than seven weeks and I doubt the stable had this race in mind as their major Spring target so I expect he'll take plenty of benefit from the run. Still I won't fall of my chair if he runs a cheeky race.

Mongolian Khan was never going to be at his best until he got to 2000m+ so his first two runs this prep have been super under the circumstances. He's contested the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) and the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) and was just over a length and a half off the winner on both occasions. In the latter he recorded the equal fastest final 200m (11.65) with Fawkner. Won this year's G1 ATC Derby beating Hauraki, Volkstok'n'barrell and Preferment.

A quick look at the others and the next best is clearly Happy Trails but he has only won once here at Caulfield in 11 attempts and that was four years ago. He does however seem to like the 2000m at this time of year because he won last year's G1 Mackinnon Stakes and the previous Spring he claimed the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Entirely Platinum looks the likely leader and could get some cheap sectionals in front but I just think the rest of these have many, many lengths on him. 

Locky's Selections

2. Fawkner
7. Kermadec
5. Pornichet

1. Criterion

Last Saturday was the first metro meeting this season that Chris Waller did not train at least a winning double but I guess if you're only going to win one race on the day it may as well be a G1 Epsom Handicap with Winx. With the focus shifting to Melbourne this week expect him to resume his domination of the Sydney ranks so I'll take at look at some of his better chances.

Tremezzina (Randwick Race 2 No. 6) drops back from the Listed Reginald Allen Quality won by Alart to a BM70 here so she does look well placed. She finished alongside Flamboyant Lass and Ocean Tempest in that race and they have since contested the G1 Flight Stakes last weekend with the former just over a length off the winner Speak Fondly. She's found the line really well in her two starts this campaign and looks ready to win here.

Ballet Suite (Randwick Race 7 No. 5) has had two runs back now and both have been good behind the likes of Sadler's Lake and Music Magnate. Third-up in her first prep she won at 1600m and third run in last campaign (below) she was a closing one and a half length fourth to Fenway in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at 40/1. Back to fillies and mares grade she looks well placed here with just 55kg. She's two from two at the mile including one here at Randwick.

Good Project (Randwick Race 8 No. 2) beat Ballet Suite home last start when second to Music Magnate and that horse has form around the likes of Fell Swoop and Inz'n'out. He races earlier in the day so that will give us some sort of guide to this horse. He is a bit of a "non-winner" with just three victories from the 17 starts but he has been placed on nine occasions. He should get a cosy run behind the leader from barrier one and his Randwick 1400m record is good.

THE OTHER MAJOR RACES

Toorak Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Amicus is an early scratching ***

Many of these are coming via the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes so it may pay to have a look at that race again. Especially given that six of the last 11 winners have come through it including the last three in a row and all of them finished top five.

Stratum Star (1st) had to overcome a wide barrier to get up in the final bound and the way he finished the race off indicates to me that the extra 200m is no concern. While he has yet to win at this distance in three starts he has never missed a place including a close-up third in the G1 Australian Guineas last March. Disposition (2nd) meets Stratum Star 1.5kg better off here for his last stride defeat. Just the one start at 1600m for a narrow second to Rommel in the G2 W.A. Guineas and he has been placed at 1800m behind Moriarty in the G1 Kingston Town Stakes. 10 starts for nine top two finishes and a fourth. Strawberry Boy (4th) nearly pinched the race after getting away with a pretty soft first 800m (37.06) and he's a four time winner at 1600m including one at this track. Two starts back he finished a half length behind Winx when conceding her 3.5kg and he gets a nice turnaround in the weights from both Stratum Star (2.5kg) and Disposition (1kg). So too does Lucky Hussler (6th) who probably should have won the race. He ran into more dead ends than Shaggy and Scooby Doo and was clambering over heels all the way down the straight. It's remarkable he was less than two lengths off them at the end considering he went to the line under a stranglehold. He's a proven performer at the mile at the top level having finished a narrow second to Hucklebuck in the G1 Emirates Stakes at Flemington last November. He's been well tried in early markets.

Leebaz (9th) wasn't far away but he's trading on old form. His first ten starts yielded six wins and three seconds but his last 10 starts have produced just one win and two placings all at G2/G3 level. I'm looking elsewhere. Hopfgarten (12th) wasn't as bad as his finishing position might suggest. He was bottled up for most of the straight and he would have finished closer with clear galloping room because he was still closing at the end despite not being ridden out. Best longshot. Bull Point (14th) clearly doesn't have his heart in it at the moment and he might be better off pulling a milk cart. 

Looking at the other form lines Noble Protector is coming off a poor run in the G2 Let's Elope Stakes just as Allez Wonder was when she won at $41 in 2009. She was G1 placed in the Autumn behind Amanpour and Catkins in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes and boasts a second to Contributer but I can't entertain her. Ninth Legion was a half length third (below) to subsequent G1 Epsom Handicap quinella Winx and Sons of John two starts back in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. On that day he beat home Strawberry Boy, Vashka and Messene who have all since run well. 

Kenjorwood will have to create a little bit of history to win because every winner in the last 30 years has come of a run in a Black Type race at their last start. On the plus side he has two wins and three placings from six runs at the trip with his only "miss" being a fourth behind The Cleaner two runs back in the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes. Hi World will find this G1 easier than the w-f-a races he has been contesting. He drops to just 54.5kg here and two starts back at 1600m he was a tick over two lengths off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and prior to that was only a length and a half behind Boban in the G1 Memsie Stakes. Flamingo Star has the Chris Waller polish and looks set to peak here fourth run back. At his last run at the mile he was just shaded by stablemate Strawberry Boy at level weights and meets him 1.5kg better off here. This time last year Akavoroun came of two average runs to finish a one length fourth in this race third-up at $13 and gets in 1kg lighter this year but he hasn't won for 15 months and his last nine starts have yielded just one placing.

* 10 of the last 11 winners paid $9 or less and eight of them returned $6 or less.

Locky's Selections

7. Disposition
4. Strawberry Boy
2. Stratum Star
11. Hi World

Thousand Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Pasadena Girl won a G1 Champagne Stakes over the mile (below) at just her fourth career start. First-up this prep she rattled home from near last to finish a clear second to Stay With Me in the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes which has proved to be a red hot form race. She comfortably beat home Don't Doubt Mamma (4th), Haybah (6th) and Badawiya (7th) who have all since won. Last start in the G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude she was the best closer in a leader dominated race.

Miss Gunpowder won that race (below) after being allowed to cruise through her first 800m in a pedestrian 49.2 so it's no surprise she had a kick and was able to hold off all the challengers. I doubt she'll get an easy lead tomorrow because she'll have to push across from the outside gate and I can't see Badawiya letting her get there too easily and Stay With Me will probably press forward too from her good gate. Still she's won four from five so she's hard to knock. 

Payroll was a huge run in the same race (above) after hoop Jim Cassidy circled the field mid-race to sit outside the lead when he realised the leader was trying to stack them up. I thought she would fold faster than Superman on ironing day given the torrid run she had but she had the cheek to keep on kicking all the way down the straight. Jockey Jim Cassidy has won this race three times but not since 1999.

Stay With Me is a daughter of 2006 winner Miss Finland but history says she'll find it hard to emulate her famous dam because only one winner in the last 17 years has finished worse than fourth at their previous run. She was another like Payroll who took off early and endured a wide run with no cover (above) but I liked the way she attacked the line even she was beaten three and a half lengths. With a better run in transit she can figure.

Badawiya is on a six day back-up after an impressive two length victory last Sunday in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes. I don't think that contest had the depth of the other lead-up and the last time she met this lot she finished three and a half lengths astern and meets Pasadena Girl 2.5kg worse off at the weights. That's the only time in six career starts she has missed a top three finish and she has won three of her last four starts.

Jameka has been thereabouts at her two runs this time in around the likes of Pasadena Girl, Stay With Me and Miss Gunpowder. As a 2-y-o she beat the boys in a G2 Sires Produce in the Autumn at the Flemington 1400m so she should eat up the mile. Sagaronne could improve because first-up she never saw clear running room and second-up they were forced to ride her upside down due to the slow speed up front. Last time she got to the mile she was a three quarter length second in the G1 J.J. Atkins behind Press Statement. Super Cash enjoyed the run of the race behind Miss Gunpowder last start and although she worked to the line well there I think she was entitled to do a little more.

Locky's Selections

2. Pasadena Girl

7. Stay With Me
3. Sagaronne

8. Payroll


Spring Champion Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Loyal readers who took the tip will be pretty happy with themselves right now because two weeks ago I wrote:

Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 5 No. 4) looks a stayer in the making and I've already taken $8 for him to claim the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in a fortnight because if he wins tomorrow (and both the bookies and I think he will) I won't get anything near that price.

After steering this colt to victory in that G3 Gloaming Stakes jockey Hugh Bowman stated "he feels like a Victoria Derby horse all over" and that's high praise from a man who has won the race three times in the last five years. If the bookies are to be believed he has a mortgage on this race because at around $1.80 he looks like starting the shortest priced favourite in 20 years. The stats sheet is against him though because no favourite has won this race since Platinum Scissors in 2002 and no odds-on favourite has won since Magic Of Sydney in 1996.

Too Good To Refuse is one of only two other runners under double figure odds. He bolted in on a wet track last start with 59kg in a Doomben 3-y-o open handicap over 1600m and three starts back he was only a length behind Honesta and that filly was very good last weekend in a G1. It's an unorthodox lead-up but he looks above average and he's the only one they've backed to beat the favourite ($5.50 into $4.80). Man Of Choice is the other and he closed well for third behind Press Statement last start and jockey Sam Clipperton said he "relaxed well and once he gets out to 2000m he'll be a very nice horse". Tatoosh finished a length and a half in front of Man of Choice on that occasion despite drawing the outside barrier and being snagged back to last. He made up many lengths in the run to the winning post. He's friendless in early betting getting out to $11 after opening at $8.50. 

Locky's Selections

1. Vanbrugh
4. Too Good To Refuse
2. Tatoosh
5. Man Of Choice

G1 Epsom Handicap Day - 03.10.2015

I managed to find the trifecta ($157.50) in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and my Chris Waller runners in Press Statement and Vanbrugh both stamped themselves as horses to follow while stablemate Ballet Suite (5th) continues to tick along nicely. Kuro (3rd) had the race shot to bits according to jockey James McDonald but switched off when he got to the front and was bloused on the line.

It's an even bigger weekend of this racing this time around with five G1's across two states over three days.

Tonight at Moonee Valley we see talented 3-y-o's Petits Filous and Fontition taking on seasoned campaigners like G1 winners Buffering and Flamberge in the G1 Moir Stakes. Then on Sunday we have quite a few Cup hopefuls locking horns in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. My main focus however will be on the big meeting at Randwick tomorrow with nine races, all at Stakes level with six being Group races including three G1's.

Who's Hot?

Craig Williams had a Black Type double at Caulfield last weekend winning the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes and G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude. He travelled to Geelong the following day for three wins from three rides before bagging another treble at Ballarat on Wednesday. He usually strikes form at this time of year and when he does it pays to follow him.

He has engagements at Moonee Valley tonight, Randwick tomorrow and Flemington on Sunday so I won't list all of his rides but his best chances in the major races appear to be Fontiton (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 12), Chance To Dance (Randwick Race 9 No. 9) and  Foundry (Flemington Race 6 No. 5).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a sunny day.***

Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Sadler's Lake: Every single one of the last 12 winners returned $15 or less and nine of them were 4-y-o's. Only two favourites have won in that period. Wide barriers haven't been much of a concern and weight is largely irrelevant this year given 2kg covers the field. Secret Admirer (2007) is the only mare to win in the last 30 years.

Winx produced an unbelievable final burst (below) three weeks ago to claim the G2 Theo Marks Stakes. She'll need luck from the wide draw but given she's going to drift back anyway that may be a plus because at least she won't be buried away on the fence. She should get a good tempo in front too with Hooked, Entirely Platinum and Ecuador engaged so look for her swooping late. The last horse to complete the Theo Marks-Epsom double was Ricochet in 1970 and not many horses win this race second-up.

Lucia Valentina is the horse best suited by the compressed weights because she is 1.5kg over the minimum after chasing home Kermadec, Royal Descent and Pornichet two weeks ago at w-f-a (below) in the G1 George Main Stakes. That was her second run this campaign and she's never placed second-up in five attempts. However, at her last three appearances third-up she has won a G1 Turnbull Stakes and a G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and placed third in a G1 Ranvet Stakes behind Contributer and Tosen Stardom.

Sadler's Lake is an improving 4-y-o on the way up which has been a good blueprint for this race in recent years. Given his low handicap rating he's poorly placed here at the weight scale (he should be getting 8kg from Hooked) but on the plus side he should get the gun run from barrier three. He comes off wins in a Benchmark race and the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap just like his stablemate Boban when he won this race two years ago.

Entirely Platinum comes via the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) where he was less than half a length from Fawkner and prior to that he split Boban and Stratum Star in the G1 Memsie Stakes. That form reads very strong now but he'll have to defy history because the last horse to win this race off a prior run in Melbourne was Golden Sword in 1993. Barrier 14 makes it an even more difficult assignment. Best backed in early markets.

Silverball comes off an almost identical path to his stablemate He's Your Man when he captured this race last year. He took a while to get there last start but it was a pretty soft win in the end and at his previous start he just missed Magic Hurricane who has since run well and will start favourite in today's G1 Metropolitan Handicap. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but if the tempo is hot then he will be the one who is strong at the finish.

You'll get some juicy odds if you like anything outside the top three and there are a few who could step-up here and run into the placings without shocking. Sweynesse will find this much easier than his last assignment in the G1 George Main Stakes but the barrier draw did him no favours. Rudy meets Sadler's Lake 4kg better off than their last encounter but would have loved some rain. He could still flash home though if they run along. So could the other Queenslander Teronado on a firm track. Hooked ran an enormous race (below) in this race last year to fight back for third after sitting wide without cover. He's drawn to get a good run here and he can improve sharply back on a dry surface but I'm worried he may get into a speed duel up front. 

Kirramosa was on the heels of Lucia Valentina last start in that hot G1 George Main Stakes and meets her 1.5kg better off here so I can't work out why she is twice the price of the other mare. She is improving with every run but I think her main mission is the G1 Caulfield Cup. Messene was a close-up third with a big weight last weekend in the G2 Shannon Stakes and recent winners Fat Al (2012) and Secret Admirer (2011) followed a similar route. Ecuador was sixth in this race two years ago (below) less than a length behind Boban. He's a two-time winner third-up and trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times.

Locky's Selections

11. Sadler's Lake

7. Silverball
4. Winx
9. Kirramosa

The Metropolitan (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Hawkspur is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Bonfire: Seven of the last eight favourites were beaten and five of the winners paid $10 or more. Six of the last seven winners were unplaced at their previous run. Gai Waterhouse has won this race eight times including five of the last 10.

Magic Hurricane gets right down in the weights here compared to the other top fancies. The 2400m is a query for mine because I thought he was there to win last start but couldn't finish it off. To off-set that James McDonald should be able to give him a cosy run from the inside gate but much like his stablemate Contributer last week I can't warm to him at what looks like being odds of $3.60.

Beaten Up hasn't won since his G1 Doomben Cup victory in May 2013 but he did spend 16 months on the sidelines with a tendon injury. In his nine starts since his enforced lay-off he has only gotten out beyond 2000m once and that resulted in a third to Hartnell last March (below) in the G1 BMW. He wasn't far behind Preferment and Magic Hurricane last start and he's drawn to get a lovely trail here.

Almoonqith really caught the eye last start when he flashed home from near last in the G3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield a fortnight ago. On that run he looks like he'll eat up the 2400m especially given five starts back he won the G3 Nad Al Sheeba in Dubai over 2800m. The Hayes/Dabernig training partnership doesn't venture north from Euroa often but they did claim the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in April with Criterion.

Chance To Dance was only two lengths off the winner in the G2 Hill Stakes on a soft track and he's only missed a place three times in his career. Those runs were all on affected ground but he's never missed a place in eight dry track appearances so go instead off his previous win at Moonee Valley. He's had four starts in Europe at 2400m for a win, two seconds and a fourth (on a wet surface) carrying between 58.5kg and 63.5kg and finds himself here with just 55.5kg.

Junoob has been crunched in early betting ($15 into $10). He really caught the eye two runs back when he rattled home for fifth in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes. According to Josh Parr he didn't handle the track last start so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an improvement of many lengths here on a Good 4. His last run over this trip (below) was a seventh in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup when he was less than two and a half lengths behind Admire Rakti.

Everything else is going to be about $10 or longer but this is a race that has had it's share of upsets so we can't dismiss them. Beyond Thankful has won four of his last five and although they were in weaker grade he is in-form and rock hard fit and comes from a G1 winning stable. Tricky gate but Hugh Bowman and a lack of speed should see him overcome that. Maurus looks a promising stayer in the making and he wasn't far off Silverball last start and that horse is well in commission in the G1 Epsom Handicap. Orbec is a big brute of a horse and he's needed each of his three runs this campaign and he looks ready to peak here. Kapour* should get an easier run than he did when a brave fifth last start and the stable has been in good form lately with Bon Aurum and Petits Filous. Third-up at 2400m last prep he won the Listed Winter Cup at Rosehill over this distance. Bonfire ran second in that race and he was solid first-up at 2000m and jumps straight to 2400m but he has done that before and been effective. If anyone can make that work it's trainer Gai Waterhouse. He'll be up on the pace making his own luck and he has won at 2400m.

* Kapour will most likely run in Melbourne on Sunday 

Locky's Selections

4. Beyond Thankful 
9. Chance To Dance 
7. Almoonqith

2. Junoob

I want a winner and I Want It Now! Well Cheer Up Charlie - The Candyman has found some sweet tips using nothing but Pure Imagination.

Brisbane Winter Form

Counterattack (Randwick Race 4 No. 7) is taking on the highly touted Exosphere but if he can be beaten I think this bloke might be the one to do it. First-up he came from the tail of the field and rounded them up with ease to win the Listed Heritage Stakes going away. I can see him taking improvement from that run because it was his first run in 15 weeks. The favourite is dropping from 1400m back to 1200m and could be vulnerable. 

Moriarty (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) should be ready to peak now after three runs back and out to 2000m for the first time this preparation. He won this race fourth-up last year coming off a sixth of six at his previous run. Last campaign at his fourth run he beat all bar Werther in the G2 Eagle Farm Cup. Dropping back to 1500m from 1600m last start wasn't ideal but it seemed to switch him on. If he dashes like that tomorrow he might be too quick for some of these grinders.

THE OTHER MAJOR RACES

The Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

This looks an intriguing race with the old bulls bashing heads with some talented up-and-comers. I'm gambling that Fontiton has returned in top order. She has just 51kg and on debut she won a 1000m race here at MV by six lengths. In fact she's won both her starts at the distance and both were fresh. Her only defeat was when she was found to be suffering from heat stress after finishing fifth in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes. As of this morning trainer Robert Smerdon has eight wins and two placings from his last 15 starters. 

It was hard to go past the favourite here in Petits Filous. She also gets a 7.5kg swing from most of her rivals here at the w-f-a conditions, she'll jump on or near the speed and make them run her down. The form around her (Miss Gunpowder, Take Pride) is stacking up too. The 1000m fresh might be a bit zippy for old Buffering now that he is an 8-y-o. I'm not writing him off though because he has contested this race first-up the last three years for two wins and a second but they were all run at 1200m. He hasn't been seriously competitive fresh over 1000m since his two length third to Black Caviar and Hay List in the G1 Lightning Stakes more than three and a half years ago.

Ball Of Muscle is fit and hard and has never missed a top three finish in 15 starts. He has four starts at 1000m for two wins, a second and a third. It took the talented Rebel Dane a day and a half to get past him last start in a thrilling finish. Flamberge has to be in with some hope on his last start second behind Chautauqua when first-up but he was disappointing second-up in the Autumn after doing the same thing. Granted he was dropping back from 1100m to 1000m there whereas he stays at the same trip here. Angelic Light not the worst.

Locky's Selections

12. Fontiton
13. Petits Filous
1. Buffering
6. Ball Of Muscle

The Flight Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Speak Fondly is the popular pick and it's no real surpise given her three runs this time in work have produced two wins and a second to Exosphere (below) when she took on the boys in the G1 Golden Rose. The dominant win of Press Statement last weekend just makes it look even better now. I'm leaving her out though because I'm not a fan of backing short priced favourites who have already played their "Grand Final".

The stablemate Sempre Libera looks like the mile will suit on her last start effort in the G2 Tea Rose Stakes but the best two runs in that race (below) were Pearls and Honesta. Granted they were suited by the fact that they charged through the first 800m but they were strong at the end and that's what I'm looking for here. Honesta has a great record at 1600m (3:2-1-0) whereas only one other filly has even started at the trip and that is $301 chance Lauren's Magic who finished third last start in a $22K maiden at Wyong. Kimberley Star was sound in the same race behind the aforementioned pair and trainer Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times. She has been up a long time though. Perignon pulled up distressed after her last run and jockey Hugh Bowman suggested she may be better on a dry track. If there is a blowout it could be the Kiwi filly Sofia Rosa. 

Locky's Selections

4. Honesta

5. Pearls
3. Perignon

7. Sempre Libera


Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

This race has been kind to the bookies in recent years with just one favourite saluting the judge since 2005 and some big results like Happy Trails ($26), Zipping ($17), Efficient ($26) and Devil Moon ($13).

I'm looking for something that can sit in the first half dozen here because although there are some go forward horses I don't think any of them will be out to set any land speed records. So we could see another farcical, w-f-a, tactical sit-and-sprint affair. I've ended up with Royal Descent. Chris Waller may have finally found the perfect race for her to finally breakthrough and score her first major since the G1 ATC Oaks in April 2013. She won't know herself with just 53.5kg and she is primed for this whereas many of her rivals have other targets in mind. She has drawn wide but so have a couple of the few others who are likely to go forward so I'm hoping she can get a cart across. 

Volkstok'n'barrell looks like he'll get the run of the race and his last two efforts were better than they look in the form guide because two starts back (below) he got pole-axed and last start was a sprint home where the order didn't change much between the 1000m and the winning post. Amralah won in dynamic fashion last start in Adelaide albeit beating a much weaker field than this but I like they way he put himself into the race which I feel will be crucial here. Team Williams has won three of the last six renewals of this feature. Rising Romance my next best but she has to overcome the outside draw. She was probably unlucky not to beat Fawkner second-up (below) in the G1 Makybe Diva and she always seems to produce her best at her third third or fourth run into a campaign. Plenty of other hopes too including Happy Trails, Protectionist, Preferment, Dandino, Who Shot Thebarman, Alpine Eagle and Gust Of Wind but they'll be spotting them a headstart. I would have had Hartnell in my top four but for the fact that the stable has announced he will be ridden back in an effort to get him to settle. I would have thought from that gate with no real speed here he'd be going forward but John O'Shea has trained more winners than I have.

Locky's Selections

16. Royal Descent
5. Volkstok'n'barrell
11. Amralah

9. Rising Romance