G2 Warwick Stakes Day - 22.08.2015

It was a welcome return to tipping form last week when Mourinho ($8.40/$2.50) saluted in the G2 Lawrence Stakes and the trifecta ($469.80) was tipped among the Top Four selections.

Mourinho (outside) edges out The Cleaner in a deceptive finish

This weekend I'm looking for in-form horses with race fitness because although there are quite a few topliners resuming they are clearly being aimed at bigger targets and longer trips later in the Spring.

Who's hot?

Trainers John, Dan and Chris Meagher have had eight winners and eight placegetters from their last 20 runners. That's a 40% winning strike rate and an incredible 80% for the place in the last five weeks.

Their strike rate has improved since the beginning of the new racing season on August 1 with six winners, three seconds and a third from just 11 starters. (Win 54.5% / Place 90.9%).

Remarkably it got even better last weekend with five runners on Saturday spread across Doomben and the Gold Coast for three winners (Win 60%).

Tomorrow they have two runners - Harada Bay (Doomben Race 7 No. 9) and Comacina (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 1).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers in the late afternoon. ***

Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

First Seal will be our standout favourite here but she has been beaten five times in her last six starts at odds of $3.75 or shorter. Having said that her last eight starts have been at either G1 or G2 level and in that time she's racked up three wins and four seconds so you can't fault her consistency. She's had two barrier trials (she had just the one last prep) and is drawn to be handy to the leaders.

Kermadec hasn't been seen since his barnstorming effort to claim the G1 Doncaster (below) and when you consider the field that he beat he has to be one of the top chances here. He's nominated for both the G1 Cox Plate and the G1 Caulfield Cup so his Grand Final is still two months away and over 2000m+. The question is will he be fully screwed down for this assignment or do we expect him to need the hit-out? Make no mistake though - he's a talent.

Royal Descent was third to Kermadec (above) in that strong G1 Doncaster back in April and followed that with a game third to Criterion in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. She's only won twice at Randwick from 13 attempts but she handles it OK because she's placed in nine of her other 11 runs here. Two starts at the Randwick 1400m for a third in the G3 Tramway and a second placing in this race last year when also first-up.

It's Somewhat won easily first-up last prep when well backed at his first Australian start in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. He followed that up with a tidy effort (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes which was one of the best races of the Sydney Autumn Carnival. I'll be watching the bookies boards to see if there is any stable confidence. If so - beware.

Burbero finished almost two lengths ahead of It's Somewhat in that race (above) and has a fitness edge on most of his rivals after two runs back from a break. His last-to-first victory last start in the G2 Missile Stakes a fortnight ago was dynamite. That was his tenth top two finish in his last 12 starts going back to this time last year. The knock - he has never placed at Randwick over 1400m in four previous attempts but he seems to be a different horse now.

Pornichet was fifth in the aforementioned G1 Doncaster before going on to win the Listed Toowoomba Cup (with 60.5kg). He then annihilated them (below) in the G1 Doomben Cup. As a result he is one of the early top picks for the G1 Cox Plate so I can't see him being fully wound up for this and given he's missed a place at his only two fresh runs in this country I'll be looking around him.

Messene has a great record second-up and at this journey (both 5:3-1-0) and should take great improvement from his fresh run. From the inside barrier he should get the gun run here behind natural leader Zaratone in what looks to be a race devoid of any real pace. He's only placed once in his last five runs but if he can recapture the form that saw him claim nine of his first 12 he could be the blowout.

All the rest are $41+. Gust Of Wind is being aimed at the G1 Caulfield Cup after blitzing her rivals (below) in the G1 ATC Oaks in April so this will probably be a tad short. Having said that she did win first-up over 1400m last campaign with a run that had to be seen to be believed. Great to see Complacent back at the races too after more than 21 months off with a tendon problem. He'll no doubt need the hit-out too but he has never missed a top two finish in six starts and can claim a win and a second at his only two tries at 1400m.

Locky's Selections

5. Burbero

6. Messene

11. Kermadec
13. First Seal

Form Line

Fell Swoop (Randwick Race 3 No. 4) beat Inz'n'out by three lengths last start and that gelding backed up seven days later to win by four lengths. As I've said before in this blog I like backing winners because they tend to just win. This bloke has won five from seven (it should be six because he was unlucky two starts ago) and his dry track record is three starts for three wins by a combined margin of 11.5 lengths.

Blue Blood

Lake Geneva (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) is by leading sire and dual G1 winner Fastnet Rock. Her dam Hips Don't Lie won a G2 Reisling Stakes before running seventh to Sebring in the G1 Golden Slipper. She also won two Listed races. All three of her foals to date have fetched $900K+. Her daughter does look well placed here on the minimum of 54kg under the SW+P conditions given she has placed in both the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes (below) and the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes.

Bookies Nightmare

Gregers (Moonee Valley Race 7 No.1) went up short enough at $3 but punters were happy enough to step into that and she is now a $2.05 chance. She's had six starts here at Moonee Valley for three wins, two seconds and a half length fourth (below) to Temple Of Boom in the G1 William Reid Stakes. In three runs at 1000m she has won twice and finished a narrow second to dual G1 winner Platelet when first-up last prep.

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G2 Lawrence Stakes Day - 15.08.2015

Black Type races in both Melbourne and Sydney and a host of big names return to the track.

The even better news is we should be racing on dry tracks in both states for the first time in months.

Who's hot?

Jockey Tegan Harrison and trainer Tony Gollan have combined five times in the last week for five winners - doubles at Ipswich last Friday and again at Doomben on Saturday plus another winner at Doomben on Wednesday.

They have just one chance tomorrow to see if they can keep their 100% strike rate for the 2015/16 season intact - last start winner El Campeador (Doomben Race 2 No. 6).

Caulfield

*** As of 9am this morning the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

P.B. Lawrence Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Smokin' Joey is our favourite on the back of successive victories and he will appreciate the w-f-a conditions after conceding a lot of weight to his rivals at his last two starts. He has residual Winter Carnival fitness on his side too whereas six of his eight rivals are first-up. His run in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below) was good coming from well back in a slowly run race.

Dibayani looked awesome cruising home in an 800m jumpout at Flemington on July 31 so it's no surprise to see him well tried in the market even though this is his first start in Australia. Going back through his form he was placed behind the likes of Designs On Rome and Able Friend in the H1 Hong Kong Derby. That's solid form.

Excess Knowledge has had a couple of solid trials in readiness for this first-up assignment and being a Waterhouse horse you'd expect him to be up on the speed and rock hard fit. He did win fresh last prep and Kerrin McEvoy has followed him down from Sydney after guiding him to victory last start in the G3 Doncaster Prelude. He's only missed a place once in five fresh runs.

Petrology had every possible chance last start in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes but Smokin' Joey gave him a head start and then a case of windburn as he went past. Second-up last campaign he was a six length ninth (below) behind Dissident in the G1 Orr Stakes at this track and distance. I find it difficult to entertain him as a winning proposition but he could blunder into the minors.

Mourinho is probably looking for further but his last three fresh runs have produced two wins and a second including victory over Dissident in the G2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley back in January. He followed that with an unlucky third behind the same horse (above) in the aforementioned G1 Orr Stakes. He does look like he'll get a wonderful passage in transit here behind The Cleaner from the inside gate.

The Cleaner will start double figure odds here and though he has never won at a distance shorter than 1600m he has placed at 1400m and he has three wins and three placings from eight first-up runs. He's the natural leader and it's unlikely anyone will want to serve it up to him and when that happens he's always hard to run down.

Of the others No Tricks has fitness on her side after contesting the Brisbane Winter Carnival and she is a last start winner. She's never missed a top four placing in her eight starts up to 1600m. I suspect Taiyoo and Big Memory will need the run.

Locky's Selections

3 Mourinho
1 Smokin' Joey
4 Dibayani
2 The Cleaner

Blue Bood

Redzel (Rosehill Race 5 No. 6) is by G1 Oakleigh Plate winner Snitzel out of Millrich - herself a winner of the G3 Sweet Embrace Stakes as a two-year-old before placing in the G1 Golden Slipper behind Flying Spur and Octagonal. She also placed in this very race the G3 San Domenico Stakes at three. Her previous progeny include the stakeswinner Danerich - winner of the G3 McNeil Stakes.

Thrown in at the Deep End

No horses were harmed during the taking of this photograph

Vezelay (Caulfield Race 4 No. 10) has risen quickly through the ranks and has proved competitive every time trainers Leon and Troy Corstens have raised the bar. She wasn't far off them in the G1 William Reid Stakes last time out - and that was just her fifth career start. Prior to that she was a close-up third in the G2 Kewney Stakes. This is much easier and down on the minimum weight with the good barrier she should be handy and will give a great sight for a long way.

Roughie

Buon Auspicio (Doomben Race 4 No. 7) has won three from five out of the Doomben 1350m chute and is coming off a last start win. The Bryan Guy stable is flying at the moment and with no weight and a nice draw I think she's a worthwhile each-way bet at what should be double figure odds.

One To Follow

Raposo (Caulfield Race 9 No. 2) was tipped here last start and was brave in defeat after a wide run. In fact all his runs this prep have been solid and he looks like the 1800m will suit. He has form around the likes of subsequent winners Volcanic Ash and Herstory and despite the big weight I think he'll prove too good for this lot.

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G2 Missile Stakes Day - 08.08.2015

Not a crackerjack field for the first Group race of the new season especially given that the list of previous winners includes the likes of Campaign King, Guineas, Commands, Lonhro, Spark Of Life, Dance Hero and Sweet Idea. 

But the good horses can't be too far away with the first G1 of 2015/16 the Memsie Stakes to be run at Caulfield in just three weeks time.

Track information and conditions for tomorrow can be found here.

Who's Hot?

Gold Coast based trainer Bryan Guy has had eight winners and three seconds from just 16 starters in the last 16 days. (Win 50% - Place 73.3%)

He has three runners tomorrow - Polynikes (Doomben Race 1 No. 5), Grenache (Doomben Race 2 No. 12) and Amasta (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 3).

* He also has four runners at Ipswich this afternoon *

Class Act

Trust In A Gust (Flemington Race 7 No. 1) is clearly the best horse going around tomorrow. As last year's G1 Toorak Handicap winner (below) he has 60kg to contend with but he has shown before he can carry weight. Although he is giving 6kg to all his rivals on strict handicap ratings they should be getting at least 7.5kg. He's never missed a top two finish in four first-up appearances and he has two wins and three placings from five goes at 1200m.

Early Support

Messene (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) went up $4.20 in first markets Wednesday night but that was quickly snapped up and he's now a $3.20 chance. He races well fresh with six starts for three wins and two seconds including a narrow miss in this very event last year behind G1 winning mare Sweet Idea in a much stronger race.

Messene (inside) is edged out by Sweet Idea in last year's  G2 Missile Stakes.

Formlines

Herstory (Flemington Race 3 No. 6) won as she liked last time out and at her previous start she was game behind Volcanic Ash who has since won again. The fourth placegetter Raposo has also won since and was probably a bit stiff not to win again at Moonee Valley last weekend. Five starts at 1400m for two wins and three placings including two goes here at Flemington for a win and a third.

Liberty Island (Flemington Race 6 No. 13) also has form around Volcanic Ash and Raposo. He's drawn well, attractively weighted and Damien Oliver and Chris Waller have combined seven times in the past three weeks for four winners. Back up to 1600m appeals.

Other Bets

Duccio (Randwick Race 3 No. 5) should be ready to peak here after two runs back. Third up last prep he broke his maiden beating Preferment. That horse went on to win the G1 VRC Derby. At his next start Duccio was only collared late by Hampton Court in the Listed Dulcify Quality. That horse won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at his next start. That form reads well for a BM80. Love the engagement of Jimmy Cassidy for this frontrunner.

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Happy New Racing Year ! - 01.08.2015

It's time to fire up the blog again after a bit of a freshen-up over the Winter because the first Group race of the year is only a week away.

So let me blow off the cobwebs and see if the brief spell has had the right effect.

Who's Hot?

Brad Rawiller has had an incredible last nine days.

He's ridden 13 winners including a treble at the Geelong Synthetic track, a metro double at Caulfield last weekend from just three rides and a staggering five winners at Swan Hill on Monday just gone.

One To Follow

Raposo (Moonee Valley Race 7 No. 11) is a horse I have been watching lately. He was devastating last start despite running about like a drunken sailor. Prior to that he was fourth behind (subsequent winners) Volcanic Ash and Herstory and maybe should have won after seeing more backsides than a Customs officer in the run down the straight. He's had two starts at this track for a win and a narrow second to Duke of Brunswick - that horse came out and won again beating Volcanic Ash. I won't be backing him here because he's too short in the market and I don't think barrier four is ideal but put him in your Black Book.

Hello Stranger

Trainer Richard Jolly doesn't venture across the border from his Morphettville base very often so he must think he has some genuine winning chances tomorrow at Moonee Valley. He saddles up Pistolier (Race 3 No. 7), Hioctdane (Race 5 No. 5) and Mr. Good Cat (Race 6 No. 6).

Mudlark

Marenostro (Rosehill Race 4 No. 2) has had 13 starts. Wet tracks 7:5-1-1. Dry tracks 6:1-0-0. He won't be any flash price but he should just win so maybe use him as an anchor leg in your multis. He's won four from five this time in and the day he missed he was desperately unlucky.

Blue Blood

Attack The Line (Moonee Valley Race 2 No. 7) is by G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Wanted out of G3 Auraria Stakes winner Princess Pulse. He's a three-year-old having his first start tomorrow but he easily won his only trial under double wraps. He's $3.90 into $3.00 in early betting and the engagement of Damien Oliver to ride is a good sign he is primed for a debut win.

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04.07.2015

A couple of nice winners identified last weekend in Berry Delicious (Who's Hot?) and Queen Of Kariba (Mudlark) and hopefully the good form continues tomorrow.

Rosehill will be wet - again.

Who's Hot?

Team Hawkes has had eight winners from their last 25 runners at a strike rate of 32%.

They have just one runner tomorrow - Elle Lou (Rosehill Race 4 No. 8).

Show Me The Money

Heavy (Caulfield Race 3 No. 2) opened $8 on Sportsbet but that didn't last long and he was into $5 within 12 hours. He was unlucky last start and trainer Ciaron Maher is in the middle of a purple patch. Talented young apprentice jockey Michael Dee had five rides on Wednesday at Ballarat for four winners and a second.

Blue Blood

Maternal (Rosehill Race 1 No. 4) is a daughter of champion mare Divine Madonna who won four G1 races in the Emirates Stakes, the Queen of the Turf Stakes (below), the Toorak Handicap and the Myer Classic. This filly's father was G1 Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry. She broke her maiden on a Soft 6 last start at her second career run.

Brisbane Winter Form

Lucky Lago (Rosehill Race 2 No. 6) will find this a much easier assignment after three successive runs in Queensland in Black Type races over the Winter Carnival. She's in on the minimum weight in a BM95 after running in G3 and Listed races and is overdue for a breakthrough.

Man of Steel

Mr Steal (Rosehill Race 3 No. 8) won a 2200m race on a Heavy 9 at Warwick Farm on Wednesday and he obviously came through the run OK because he's backing up here just three days later. He's chasing his fourth consecutive win (and his third in 15 days) and his previous three victories were all on wet tracks. He's up in class but down in weight and he's rock hard fit and will race forward.

Macca's Combo Deal

Final Decision (Rosehill Race 4 No. 4) sees jockey Tye Angland combine with trainer Jason Coyle and although they don't link up that often it's worth noting when they do. In the last seven weeks they have combined just four times but have come away with three wins - two of them with this very galloper.

Mudlarks

Mount Nebo (Rosehill Race 7 No. 6) has started on rain affected tracks 13 times and has only missed the top three once with five wins and seven placings. His dry track form (18:1-2-6) doesn't read as well. He's dropping back from good runs in strong races and is just 1kg over the minimum.

Marenostro (Rosehill Race 8 No. 11) has had 11 starts. Wet tracks 5:4-1-0. Dry tracks 6:1-0-0. Three from three this prep and $8 into $5.50 in early betting. Enough said.

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27.06.2015

Expect a much more abbreviated and less frequent weekly write-up over the next two months with no more G1 racing until late August but I will still endeavor to find a few winners over the coming weeks.

Assume Rosehill will be slow, if not heavy.

Who's hot?

Jason Coyle has had 10 winners from his last 29 runners at a strike rate of 34.5%.

His best chance tomorrow appears to be Berry Delicious (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5).

Mudlark

Queen Of Kariba (Rosehill Race 5 No. 7) has had 11 career starts for four wins and a third but her wet track stats read five starts for three wins and a third including back-to-back victories at her last two appearances by good margins. Winona Costin is coming off a metropolitan double at Randwick last weekend.

One To Follow

De Little Engine (Flemington Race 6 No. 7) is one I tipped last start and I may have gone off one start too soon. He was straight to 2500m third-up and wasn't suited by a farcical tempo. He should be at the top of his game now fourth run in and with a run at 2500m under his belt he looks ready to get the chocolates.

Blue Blood

Our Voodoo Prince (Rosehill Race 4 No. 3) is by three-time French G1 winner Kingmambo out of seven-time G1 winning mare Ouija Board which makes him a half-brother to 2014 G1 Epsom Derby winner Australia. He was a dual acceptor but Chris Waller has scratched him from Melbourne to run in Sydney.

Well Backed

Cafe Society (Rosehill Race 6 No. 1) opened at $11 and is now half that quote. He's a former international having his first run in this country and three starts back he ran third behind Contributer in the Listed Wolferton Handicap on the fifth day of last year's Royal Ascot carnival. He's had two trials in readiness for this and won the last one.

*** Beware the Mick Kent trained Good Value which was scratched from Melbourne to contest this event. He has solid wet track form and is ready to pounce after two runs back and this yard doesn't travel interstate often ***

Roughie

Bishops Castle (Flemington Race 5 No. 10) will give you a great sight for a long way from barrier one and with the claim for Jake Bayliss especially given his habit of racing on the pace. They bet as much as $34 and while that is long gone you will probably still get around $16 come race time. He won down the straight here three starts back.

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Tatt's Tiara Day 2015

The last G1 of the 2014/15 racing season and the first ever run at the Gold Coast track.

We'll be looking at rain affected surfaces down the East Coast this weekend after quite a bit of wet weather during the week.

Who's hot?

Liam Birchley has had six winners in the last 12 days from just 14 runners including a double at Ipswich last weekend from just the three starters.

He has four runners at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Elusive Catch (Race 2 No. 10), Sugar Hit (Race 3 No. 11), Pop 'n' Scotch (Race 6 No. 9) and Time To Plunder (Race 8 No. 11).

Gold Coast

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a shower. ***

Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Vergara is an early scratching ***

Najoom is favourite but is also second emergency so she needs at least two horses above her to be scratched just to get to the barrier so I'm leaving her out of my selections but clearly she comes into calculations if she gets a run. Seven career starts for five wins and two seconds and she's had three starts at 1300m-1400m for three wins by a combined margin of 11+ lengths. Won on a slow track two starts back when she gapped them in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas and then bolted in again in the G3 Fred Best Classic at Doomben last start. Has had a minor setback.

Srikandi won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below) at her last start but she could do it tough here from the extreme outside barrier. She may get across though because there doesn't appear to be a stack of early pace here and despite one blemish she is a pretty dynamic horse out of the barrier. She's also back to fillies and mares grade here and at w-f-a too and she has shown an affinity for this Gold Coast circuit. She might simply be better than them - much like Smokin' Joey was in last week's Listed Eye Liner Stakes.

Lumosty started favourite (above) when tenth behind Srikandi last time out but it may pay to overlook the run because she drew wide and got caught deep when the pace slackened down the back straight. She loomed on straightening but just ran out of puff late as you would expect after her torrid run. Back in grade here she can be highly competitive and her two wins prior to her last start failure were explosive. A wet track is no concern because she won her maiden on Slow 6 by nine lengths.

Catkins is chasing her first G1 win at her eighth attempt. She was fourth (below) in this race last year and hasn't missed a top three finish in 10 subsequent runs including a third in the G1 Myer Classic and seconds in both the G1 Canterbury Stakes and G1 Queen Of The Turf. Trainer Chris Waller used this race two years ago to break a similar run of outs for Red Tracer and he is in great touch with 10 feature race wins over the Winter Carnival from eight separate horses. She's drawn to get a good run, can sit handy to the speed, she handles all surfaces and like her stablemate Danchai last week she has a sense of timing.

Avoid Lightning was a good third (above) in this race last year and she has seven wins and two seconds from 10 starts on wet tracks. She was brave last start under the 60kg when just nabbed late and the inside barrier is a plus. No wins beyond 1200m but she will appreciate the weight relief. She's an 11 time winner - of this lot only Catkins (15) has won more races. She's ultra-consistent with five wins and four placings from her last 11 runs. Given all the rain they've had and the threat of even more showers she could be the "omen" tip.

Of the ones listed at double figure odds Hazard beat Catkins last start and apart from a luckless second-up run she's won her other four starts this prep. Real Surreal is on the seven day back-up after her barnstorming win at Ipswich last Saturday and her only start here resulted in a win in the Magic Millions. Solicit looks like getting a lovely run from a good barrier and after two good runs with big weights for Gerald Ryan she'll appreciate the w-f-a conditions. Politeness has been below par at her last two starts but her two runs prior to that were good and she is capable on her day. Rose Of Choice has had two runs back now and is ready to peak and she's been solid if not spectacular in both. Peron has been desperately unlucky at her last few starts and she's fared poorly in the barrier draw here but she could bob up without surprising. Dublin Lass is in winning form and so is the stable but this is her biggest test to date. Peggy Jean isn't the worst and Bound For Earth is a rough place hope too.

A top field and a wide open race. A fitting G1 finale.

Locky's Selections

4 Catkins
6 Avoid Lightning
1 Srikandi
7 Solicit

Other Races

Alcohol (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 3) is making the journey over from his Morphetville base and trainer Richard Jolly doesn't do that often and it's usually a fair indicator that they are ready to rumble. His 1600m record is good (5:2-0-2) and he's previously won here at the Moonee Valley mile and he's looking for that trip now after two runs at the 1200m.

Blue Blood

Lucky Lago (Gold Coast Race 5 No. 6) is by super sire and G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner Encosta De Lago out of G1 Australian Oaks winner Dizelle. Good barrier. Well weighted. Jockey fresh off a win in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Stable has won five Black Type races during the Winter Carnival so far from limited numbers. Subject of early support. Has been chasing home the flying Strawberry Boy at her last two starts. This is easier.

Well Backed

Dothraki (Gold Coast Race 8 No. 3) went up $6.50 but that was quickly gone and he's now a solid second favourite at $4.40. Forget he even went around last start because he drew a horrible gate. His second-up record makes good reading. Hoop Damian Browne had a winning treble at Ipswich last weekend and at the risk of sounding like a broken record this Snowden mob go OK.

Roughie

Georgey Aeroplane (Randwick Race 8 No. 10) has good wet track form and the track in Sydney could be bottomless by the time we get to the last. I liked the way he attacked the line last time out when resuming and clearly someone else did too because he's $12 into $9 but I think we still might get double figure odds on the day.

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