It was a welcome return to tipping form last week when Mourinho ($8.40/$2.50) saluted in the G2 Lawrence Stakes and the trifecta ($469.80) was tipped among the Top Four selections.
This weekend I'm looking for in-form horses with race fitness because although there are quite a few topliners resuming they are clearly being aimed at bigger targets and longer trips later in the Spring.
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| Mourinho (outside) edges out The Cleaner in a deceptive finish |
This weekend I'm looking for in-form horses with race fitness because although there are quite a few topliners resuming they are clearly being aimed at bigger targets and longer trips later in the Spring.
Who's hot?
Trainers John, Dan and Chris Meagher have had eight winners and eight placegetters from their last 20 runners. That's a 40% winning strike rate and an incredible 80% for the place in the last five weeks.
Their strike rate has improved since the beginning of the new racing season on August 1 with six winners, three seconds and a third from just 11 starters. (Win 54.5% / Place 90.9%).
Remarkably it got even better last weekend with five runners on Saturday spread across Doomben and the Gold Coast for three winners (Win 60%).
Tomorrow they have two runners - Harada Bay (Doomben Race 7 No. 9) and Comacina (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 1).
RANDWICK
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers in the late afternoon. ***
Warwick Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
First Seal will be our standout favourite here but she has been beaten five times in her last six starts at odds of $3.75 or shorter. Having said that her last eight starts have been at either G1 or G2 level and in that time she's racked up three wins and four seconds so you can't fault her consistency. She's had two barrier trials (she had just the one last prep) and is drawn to be handy to the leaders.
Kermadec hasn't been seen since his barnstorming effort to claim the G1 Doncaster (below) and when you consider the field that he beat he has to be one of the top chances here. He's nominated for both the G1 Cox Plate and the G1 Caulfield Cup so his Grand Final is still two months away and over 2000m+. The question is will he be fully screwed down for this assignment or do we expect him to need the hit-out? Make no mistake though - he's a talent.
Royal Descent was third to Kermadec (above) in that strong G1 Doncaster back in April and followed that with a game third to Criterion in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. She's only won twice at Randwick from 13 attempts but she handles it OK because she's placed in nine of her other 11 runs here. Two starts at the Randwick 1400m for a third in the G3 Tramway and a second placing in this race last year when also first-up.
It's Somewhat won easily first-up last prep when well backed at his first Australian start in the G3 Liverpool City Cup. He followed that up with a tidy effort (below) in the G1 George Ryder Stakes which was one of the best races of the Sydney Autumn Carnival. I'll be watching the bookies boards to see if there is any stable confidence. If so - beware.
Burbero finished almost two lengths ahead of It's Somewhat in that race (above) and has a fitness edge on most of his rivals after two runs back from a break. His last-to-first victory last start in the G2 Missile Stakes a fortnight ago was dynamite. That was his tenth top two finish in his last 12 starts going back to this time last year. The knock - he has never placed at Randwick over 1400m in four previous attempts but he seems to be a different horse now.
Pornichet was fifth in the aforementioned G1 Doncaster before going on to win the Listed Toowoomba Cup (with 60.5kg). He then annihilated them (below) in the G1 Doomben Cup. As a result he is one of the early top picks for the G1 Cox Plate so I can't see him being fully wound up for this and given he's missed a place at his only two fresh runs in this country I'll be looking around him.
All the rest are $41+. Gust Of Wind is being aimed at the G1 Caulfield Cup after blitzing her rivals (below) in the G1 ATC Oaks in April so this will probably be a tad short. Having said that she did win first-up over 1400m last campaign with a run that had to be seen to be believed. Great to see Complacent back at the races too after more than 21 months off with a tendon problem. He'll no doubt need the hit-out too but he has never missed a top two finish in six starts and can claim a win and a second at his only two tries at 1400m.
Locky's Selections
5. Burbero
11. Kermadec
13. First Seal
6. Messene
13. First Seal
Form Line
Fell Swoop (Randwick Race 3 No. 4) beat Inz'n'out by three lengths last start and that gelding backed up seven days later to win by four lengths. As I've said before in this blog I like backing winners because they tend to just win. This bloke has won five from seven (it should be six because he was unlucky two starts ago) and his dry track record is three starts for three wins by a combined margin of 11.5 lengths.
Blue Blood
Lake Geneva (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) is by leading sire and dual G1 winner Fastnet Rock. Her dam Hips Don't Lie won a G2 Reisling Stakes before running seventh to Sebring in the G1 Golden Slipper. She also won two Listed races. All three of her foals to date have fetched $900K+. Her daughter does look well placed here on the minimum of 54kg under the SW+P conditions given she has placed in both the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes (below) and the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes.
Bookies Nightmare
Gregers (Moonee Valley Race 7 No.1) went up short enough at $3 but punters were happy enough to step into that and she is now a $2.05 chance. She's had six starts here at Moonee Valley for three wins, two seconds and a half length fourth (below) to Temple Of Boom in the G1 William Reid Stakes. In three runs at 1000m she has won twice and finished a narrow second to dual G1 winner Platelet when first-up last prep.
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