Caulfield Cup preview

Well I hope I go a bit better tomorrow than I did last week because I had an absolute Barry Crocker. I went like a busted on Guineas Day.

I'm not the only one having a bad time of it though because Caulfield Cup fancies have been dropping like flies this week. One more scratching and we won't even have a capacity field.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Kerrin McEvoy picks himself after a Black Type treble here last weekend. In the last six weeks he has claimed Spring features aboard Lucia Valentina (G1 Turnbull Stakes & G2 Tramway Stakes), Rubick (G2 Schillaci Stakes), Sweynesse (G3 Gloaming Stakes & G3 Spring Stakes), Earthquake (G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes), Abduction (Listed Reginald Allen Quality) and Hosting (Listed Weekend Hussler Stakes).

Tomorrow at Caulfield he has some plum rides including Kumaon (Race 4 No. 1), Generalife (Race 5 No. 8) and Caulfield Cup favourite Lucia Valentina (Race 9 No. 16).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)

Current market

*** Dandino, Bande, Dear Demi and Gris Caro are early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Brambles or Lidari : 25 of the last 30 winners have carried 55kg or less including nine of the last 11. Eight of the last nine winners returned between $8.50 and $17. Four of the last five winners came through the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Only two mares have been successful in the last 17 years.

"The Speed Map" says - Those with early speed and good barriers will want to take advantage of that fact so I see Seismos, Lidari and Green Moon going forward. Sea Moon, Big Memory and Junoob will probably press on too from their wide draws in an effort to get in close to the fence. Brambles up there too. Should be a good tempo.

Lucia Valentina is coming off a strong win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) where she came from well back in a race dominated by the on-pace brigade. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy is in good touch (see the "Who's hot?" segment above) and her breeding and her run in the G1 ATC Oaks last Autumn give every indication she will eat up the mile and a half.

Lidari meets Lucia Valentina 1.5kg better than when he just failed to hold her off a fortnight ago in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (above). He's a two time winner at the trip (although not in Australia) and he's had a top level w-f-a prep and now gets into a handicap with a featherweight. The good barrier should have him handily placed in the race.

Brambles only got into the field this morning with the late withdrawal of the Japanese raider Bande due to a tendon problem. Like his stablemate above he was close-up in the G1 Turnbull Stakes and gets a pull in the weights from the winner Lucia Valentina. He claimed the G1 Queensland Derby at this trip in June of 2012 then spent almost two years on the sidelines due to injury. His form this prep has been solid including a victory two starts back (with 60kg!) beating Big Memory and Signoff who finished one-two in last Saturday's G2 Herbert Power Quality.

Admire Rakti has to carry a stack of weight but his run from well back in the field to claim fourth in last year's G1 Japan Cup (below) finishing just ahead of G1 Caulfield/Melbourne Cups winner Dunaden indicates he's not out of place here. I must admit though I don't know a lot about him.

Junoob is the best fancied of trainer Chris Waller's four-pronged attack on this race thanks to his win in the G1 Metropolitan (below) at Randwick two weeks ago. That was a big effort under 58kg especially after getting flushed out way too soon. He still managed to hold on despite being a sitting shot and his previous run saw him defeat Criterion who went really well here last Saturday when a narrow second to Fawkner in the G1 Caulfield Stakes.

Who Shot Thebarman is a horse I like from a G1 Melbourne Cup point of view because he looks like a dour staying type who will run all day. I just wonder if he has the dash to win this because he took a day and a half to get to the lead last start. He'll be running on late and the stable can't be faulted.

Rising Romance gets in with no weight here and she did beat Lucia Valentina the last time they met over 2400m in last April's G1 ATC Oaks (below). All three runs this prep have been sound and she returns to a handicap here after w-f-a form. She has to contend with an awkward barrier but has in-form hoop James McDonald to off-set that.

Hawkspur ran favourite in this race last year (below) and finished an unlucky seventh after getting too far back and copping interference. Rider Damien Oliver has won this race four times but not once since the turn of the century. I just don't think he is in as good form this year but a bold showing wouldn't be a total shock.

The rest are $21+ but the best of them appear to be The Offer who is finally getting up to a trip that suits but he will need a bit of give in the ground because he felt his legs last time out on the firm Flemington track but he was still OK in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. Big Memory scraped into the field with victory in last weekend's G2 Herbert Power Quality. I just query the strength of that form and he'll also need to improve his racing manners because he wobbled round the bend at Caulfield like a stoned unicyclist. Stipulate ticks a lot of boxes in terms of weight/form and David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn combined to win this race in 2006 with Tawqeet. His G1 Turnbull Stakes run was good when he came from well back. I think that is the best form race.


Locky's Selections

14 Lidari
15 Lucia Valentina
13 Stipulate
19 Brambles

Other bets

Sweet Idea (Caulfield Race 6 No. 3) won the G2 Missile Stakes fresh, then beat all bar the flying Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes before a two length fourth in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start when she chased home Trust In A Gust who has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Back to her own sex here and well weighted considering I think she'll give a good sight for a long way. Opened $3.80.

Anatina (Caulfield Race 10 No. 3) went pretty close to claiming the G1 Galaxy second-up last prep and her run when resuming was full of merit when she took on the boys and was just run down late by the highly talented Fast 'n' Rocking when conceding him two kilos. Back to fillies and mares grade suits and the set weights plus penalties conditions see her well in at the weights. Opened $2.50.

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Caulfield Guineas preview

Well the AFL and NRL seasons have finally been put to bed and we can focus solely on the Spring Carnival now. About time too because we're only a week out from the G1 Caulfield Cup, a fortnight away from the G1 Cox Plate and the Flemington Carnival begins in three weeks with G1 VRC Derby Day.

Tomorrow is cracker too with four G1's - the Caulfield Guineas, the Thousand Guineas, the Caulfield Stakes and the Toorak Handicap. There are several good support races too with all nine events on the program carrying Black Type status including the G2 Schillaci Stakes for the sprinters and the G2 Herbert Power Stakes for the Caulfield Cup hopefuls.

Let's hope the good form continues because last week two of the Best Bets saluted in Brazen Beau and Famous Seamus while Maastricht (2nd) just missed and we nearly had the Doncaster trifecta with the top four selections finishing first, second and a narrow fourth (He's Your Man, Royal Descent & Ninth Legion).

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Gai Waterhouse and Tommy Berry are both in good touch. Tommy has ridden 11 winners in the last 16 days including six for Gai. They've already won three feature races this Spring with Sweet Idea (Missile Stakes), Greatwood (Premiers Cup) and Almalad (Stutt Stakes). Gai herself has had 10 winners since the start of the month including a two state treble last weekend - Vancouver, Hampton Court (Randwick) and Forever Loved (Flemington).

They combine at Caulfield tomorrow for Helford River (Race 1 No. 8), Overreach (Race 4 No. 4) and Almalad (Race 9 No. 2).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy morning clearing to a sunny afternoon. ***

Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** Our Vespa is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Looks Like The Cat : 16 of the last 20 winners paid $9 or less. Seven of the last 11 came via the G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude and finished top four. Nine of the last 13 favourites have been beaten.

"The Speed Map" says - Almalad and Rich Enuff to go forward from their wide barriers. Looks Like The Cat and Shooting To Win settle behind them and Kumaon can be closer tomorrow from barrier two. Chivalry to drift back.

Rich Enuff is a short priced favourite and deservedly so after an unbeaten three run sequence this campaign where he has been quite simply dominant. Michael Rodd has just two rides tomorrow after getting the sack from Happy Trails so he'll be fired up to prove the knockers wrong you would think.

Looks Like The Cat is still doing a few things wrong in his races and he'll need to get that out of his system because you need to do everything right to win a race like this. He's obviously got potential because some pundits are talking about a potential G1 Cox Plate start if he wins here tomorrow.

Shooting To Win thrashed his rivals last start in the G2 Stan Fox Stakes to follow up on his fast closing third in the G1 Golden Rose at his previous start (below). The form out of that race looks pretty strong now because several of the horses that finished behind him on that day (Almalad, Nostradamus, Press Report, Bring Me The Maid, Kumaon & Bachman) have since run very well in Black Type races.

Almalad has to overcome a horror draw but he is a G1 winner at 1600m already having claimed the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm in June. His run to claim the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes was full of merit but I just question whether that is as strong a race as the G3 Guineas Prelude or the G1 Golden Rose and G2 Stan Fox Stakes.

The first two runs by Chivalry this prep were good and I'm prepared to overlook last start as he was held up at a vital stage. He'll be running on but he's on a Derby trail and he might already be looking for further. Zebulon was also unlucky in the same race and his previous form is good. Merion took care of both those horses at his last start and his first-up effort behind Rich Enuff (his only defeat to date) was sound. Kumaoan ran on well from the tail of the field at his last start and has two goes at the mile for thirds in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Bill Stutt Stakes. He can be handier tomorrow from the inside draw and stepping up to 1600m. Moonovermanhattan was solid in the same race.

Locky's Selections

3 Rich Enuff
7 Looks Like The Cat
4 Shooting To Win
9 Merion

Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Happy Trails : 17 of the last 20 winners returned single figure odds. Five of the last six winners came via the G1 Underwood Stakes. Damien Oliver has won this race four times.

"The Speed Map" says - Crackerjack King to lead as he did last start especially now he has drawn out wide. Side Glance could be up there too. Fawkner, Criterion and Dissident to be handy. So too Dear Demi from the good gate. Stablemates Sacred Falls and Foreteller in the second half of the field.

Dissident is hard to knock. His three runs this prep have all been at G1 level and he has won two and been narrowly beaten in the other when giving the winner 6kg. If there is a concern it is that his only attempt at 2000m was average (a six length sixth to Criterion in the G1 Rosehill Guineas back in April) and his form when he gets deep into a preparation reads badly. Is he just a good fresh sprinter-miler? The jury is still out.

Fawkner looked every bit as good as Dissident in the above race and he was first-up so I expect him to take plenty of improvement from that run. Second-up record looks good on paper (5:3-1-0) but it's worth noting his last second-up effort was a two and a half length fifth in last year's G1 George Main Stakes. He's no stranger to the track having claimed last year's G1 Caulfield Cup here 51 weeks ago (below) and I think he'll be in the finish despite the fact that I think his Grand Final is still two weeks away at Moonee Valley.

Sacred Falls won the G1 George Main Stakes last start and that form is looking good now with Royal Descent (2nd) subsequently a narrow second in the G1 Epsom Handicap and Lucia Valentina (6th) victorious in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. He's had two starts at this distance for two G1 seconds behind It's A Dundeel, the most recent a fighting effort in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April (below). He's a three time G1 winner already and looks right on target for the G1 Cox Plate in a fortnight. Zac Purton flies in from Hong Kong to take the ride.

Foreteller looks to be over the odds for mine. He's a last start winner of the G1 Underwood Stakes and the form from that race has been franked with Lidari (4th) running a slashing second in last weekend's G1 Turnbull Stakes. That was his third win here at The Heath following previous victories in the G2 St George Stakes and G3 Coongy. He also ran second in this race last year to Atlantic Jewel. He can struggle to run on off a hot speed so it will all come down to how hard they go in front.

Happy Trails was on the heels of Foreteller in the G1 Underwood Stakes and he is backing up here after having no luck in last Saturday's G1 Turnbull Stakes. Take that run out and his last three attempts at 2000m have resulted in a narrow second to Shamus Award in last year's G1 Cox Plate, victory in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last year and a third to Reliable Man and It's A Dundeel in the 2013 G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I liked him last week and I like him again here especially now that we are back to w-f-a from set weights plus penalties. The last time Damian Oliver rode this bloke they won the 2012 G1 Emirates Stakes (below). 

Dear Demi was impressive winning the G2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley and I loved the way she attacked the line but that was her first win in 17 months and she is yet to win in open company. Criterion chased home Junoob last start and he's since won the G1 Metropolitan. Fourth-up last prep he strolled home in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. Crackerjack King is a winner of three from five at 2000m and I liked his effort last start in the G1 Underwood Stakes when he staved off everyone bar Foreteller and Happy Trails. Side Glance has only raced twice in this country but his record reads well with a win in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes and a sixth in the G1 Cox Plate.

Locky's Selections

1 Sacred Falls
4 Happy Trails
5 Foreteller
7 Crackerjack King

Other bets

Sistine Demon (Caulfield Race 3 No. 3) doesn't go so well first and second-up but he has a great record three runs and further into a prep (11:7-1-1). He's five from six at the 1400m including two victories here at Caulfield. Looks well weighted with just 2.5kg over the minimum. Opened $4.50.

Overreach (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) has had two trials in preparation for this and won both by big margins. She hasn't been sighted since April last year but given her value as a broodmare I can't imagine she'd be here unless she was 100%. She's nominated for the G1 Manikato Stakes in a fortnight and the G1 Darley Classic two weeks later so they're setting the bar high but she is a G1 Golden Slipper winner (beating subsequent Black Type winners Sidestep, Sweet Idea and Guelph). Opened $4.00.

Bull Point (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6) was solid behind Trust In A Gust in the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) and meets him two kilos better off here. He was the best of the run on horses so the step up to 1600m suits. The stable wins a lot of big mile races and rider Jimmy Cassidy has already claimed this race four times. Inside draw is a big plus. Opened $6.50.

Afleet Esprit (Caulfield Race 8 No. 3) just keeps winning and the bookies continue to allow us to get on. She's drawn to get the gun run here from the inside marble and meets most of her rivals better off at the weights than when she beat them in the G2 Tranquil Star two weeks ago. The stable is flying and Damien Oliver has won this race five times. Opened $6.00.

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Epsom Handicap / Turnbull Stakes Day preview

This is one of my favourite days of the racing year. 18 Black Type races spread over two states and more than $3.8M in prizemoney up for grabs. 

There are four Group 1's but I'll be focusing on the two $500K races in the Epsom Handicap (Randwick) and the Turnbull Stakes (Flemington).

There will still be plenty of other bets because with some good horses and races available I just know I won't be able to help myself.

The good news is the radar is pretty close at the moment because last week I tipped the First Four in Moir Stakes, two of the first three in the Rupert Clarke Stakes, the "Who's hot" segment steered you into Rob Heathcote (Buffering) and "The Scriptures" gave Trust In A Gust a wrap.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Hugh Bowman has ridden seven winners in the last three weeks from just 28 rides at a strike rate of 25%. This Spring he has already claimed feature race wins aboard Hallowed Crown, Winx, Terravista, Catkins and He's Your Man.

He has some quality mounts at Randwick tomorrow including Hallowed Crown (Race 4 No. 1), Royal Descent (Race 7 No. 2), Winx (Race 84 No. 1) and Bagman (Race 9 No. 2). 

Randwick

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Pheidon : 21 of the last 30 winners were 4-y-o's including nine of the last 11 and the last five in a row. Only four horses in the last 15 runnings have carried more than 54kg to win with the last being Racing To Win (57kg) in 2006. 12 of the last 18 winners drew a single digit barrier. Gai Waterhouse has won this race seven times including six of the last 11.

"The Speed Map" says - Star Rolling is best when ridden forward and he'll want to take advantage of his good draw. Pheidon is in similar situation and being a Waterhouse trained horse you'd think Gai would want him near the lead. Hooked went straight to the front last start as did Laser Hawk and being drawn out they'll both probably press forward. Jetset Lad and Liberty's Choice can be handy too. Not sure where they go on Royal Descent from out there. Last two starts she's been ridden on pace but she went back and swooped when second in the G1 Doncaster back in April.

Royal Descent as just mentioned ran second at this course and distance in the G1 Doncaster Mile (below). The problem is she's making a habit of that. She hasn't won in her last 12 starts stretching back 17 months although she has registered six seconds in quality company. Secret Admirer (2011) is the only mare to have won this race in the last 30 years but she carried just 52.5kg. She is however the class horse of the race and that will take her a long way.

He's Your Man has not missed a place in six starts at distances up to 1800m since coming to Australia. He's dropping back from 2000m to 1600m but I believe it takes a good ten furlong horse to run out a strong Randwick mile so that is of no concern. The stable does make a habit of winning these big Sydney mile races too - think Sacred Falls, Boban, Rangirangdoo, Triple Honour, Hawkspur, Danleigh, Shoot Out.

Toydini has won just two races from his last 13 starts since claiming the G3 Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) at Randwick during the Autumn Carnival of 2013. Granted he has been competing at the highest level but he has to do that again tomorrow, with a good horses weight and he did look plain last time out when a well beaten eighth in the G1 George Main Stakes.

Boban is to racing what Marat Safin was to tennis. He has all the ability in the world but he is an absolute basket case. On his day he is capable of doing extraordinary things, just as he did when winning this very race (below) just 12 months ago. The problem is catching him on his day. He has to contend with a massive weight too. Only the mighty Super Impose has carried more to victory in the last 30 years (58.5kg in 1990 and 61kg in 1991).

Of the rest Laser Hawk is getting back to somewhere near his best and gets a four kilo swing on Royal Descent and he was only half a length behind her in the G1 George Main Stakes - a race which has produced 15 of the last 30 winners. Liberty's Choice is a lightly weighted 4-y-o on the way up and he chased home Rock Sturdy last start and he would have started close to favourite here so he has some hope. Ninth Legion comes through the same race and meets both horses better at the weights and he boasts form around Cluster and Bull Point who were competitive in last Sunday's G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Hooked fits the age/weight profile and comes off a win in the G3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle but he got a soft lead that day and sprinted home. I doubt he'll be able to do that tomorrow. Star Rolling was the subject of some early speculation with the bookies ($15 into $11). He won't know himself with just 53kg and with his good early speed, ability to race on the pace and an inside draw he will be in it for a long way.

Locky's Selections

4 Laser Hawk
2 Royal Descent
9 Ninth Legion
6 He's Your Man

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***

Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)

Current market

***  Sertorius and Crackerjack King are early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Hawkspur or The Offer : In the past 25 years only five horses have carried less than 55.5kg. Only four mares (Let's Elope, Sunline, Makybe Diva and Devil Moon) have saluted in that period. 13 of the last 20 favourites have been beaten. Since 2000 seven winners have paid between $9 - $26.

"The Speed Map" says - Gris Caro and Brambles handy from good draws. Green Moon sat second in the G1 Australian Cup here second-up last prep. Puissance De Lune will want to take advantage of barrier two. They have a long run to the first bend to sort themselves out.

Lucia Valentina announced her presence in this country last Autumn with a win in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000m at Rosehill in April (below). She resumed from a spell four weeks ago and made the transition to open company with an impressive length and half win in the G2 Tramway defeating the likes of Tiger Tees and Toydini. Wasn't far away at w-f-a last start in the G1 George Main Stakes and she looks well placed here with just the 53.5kg. 

Puissance De Lune looks like a horse crying out for 2000m and he should get all the favours tomorrow from his inside barrier. He loves it here at Flemington with wins in the G2 Blamey Stakes and G3 Queen Elizabeth Stakes and placings at his other three attempts in the last two G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (behind the likes of Dissident and Foreteller) and this race last year when he hit the front too soon and was ambushed by Happy Trails. A live winning hope. 

Silent Achiever has just one win in Melbourne to her name and that was at her first attempt in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley almost two years ago. She has not run a place in seven subsequent Melbourne runs. She'll have her admirers and on her Sydney Autumn Carnival form she's good enough to win but I can't step into her especially after her plain run last start.

Happy Trails won this race last year (below) before finishing a narrow second in the G1 Cox Plate and he showed he's back to his best with an unlucky second to Foreteller in the G1 Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago. In fact I think if you reversed the runs in transit Happy Trails wins the race. He's had exactly the same prep this year (Spring Stakes/Memsie Stakes/Underwood Stakes) and is travelling better so the extra 1.5kg shouldn't be a problem.

Stipulate gets into the field now that stablemate Crackerjack King has been scratched. His first-up win was super and as a result he was well tried in the G1 Underwood Stakes but couldn't really get into the race because of the muddling tempo and his racing pattern of getting back and running on. If he gets a good tempo tomorrow he could be a player.

Hawkspur was a desperately unlucky fifth in this race last year (see replay above) when beaten half a length off a similar prep. He gives every impression he's looking for the 2000m now and he's been scratched from a much more winnable race in Sydney to take on the big guns here. The stable is obviously confident and who can blame them because they are winning practically everything at the moment.

Of the rest Green Moon saves his best form for Flemington with wins in the G1 Melbourne Cup, G2 Blamey Stakes and this race two years ago plus he was also a narrow second to Fiorente in the G1 Australian Cup last March. First-up run was good off a slow tempo when he came from last to be only three lengths off the in-form Dissident. Super Cool ran well in the G1 Underwood, he's been getting closer every run this time in and he's finally getting to a trip that suits. The Offer is another in that category. He's on a Cups path so he has bigger fish to fry down the track but expect him to be finishing powerfully.

Locky's Selections

2 Happy Trails
4 Hawkspur
8 Puissance De Lune
1 Green Moon

Other bets

Brazen Beau (Randwick Race 4 No. 3) chased home Rich Enuff, Looks Like The Cat and Awesome Rock last start and gave them weight too. That trio subsequently ran the trifecta in the G3 Guineas Prelude. He showed ability during the Brisbane Winter Carnival claiming the G2 Champagne Classic before placing in the G2 Sires Produce and G1 J.J. Atkins.  I like the fact that he stays at the 1200m too whereas a couple of his rivals are dropping back from the 1400m. Opened $4.00.

Famous Seamus (Randwick Race 6 No. 2) is well placed here under the w-f-a scale and he caught the eye first-up when he flashed home from last to grab third behind the much hyped Terravista in the G2 The Shorts. That was a day you needed to be near the fence and on the pace due to track bias and he came from last and made his run down the inferior ground out wide. Stepping up from 1100m to 1200m can only help and he was a G1 winner during the Brisbane Winter Carnival (below). Opened $2.90.

Spillway (Randwick Race 9 No. 3) has strong form leading into this with good runs over unsuitable trips in the G2 Lawrence Stakes (1400m) and the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) where he finished on the heels of Dissident, Fawkner and Puissance De Lune. Forget his last start flop in the G3 Naturalism Stakes because he had nothing but bad luck in the run. The stable is training plenty of winners and his last win was here at Randwick in April when he spanked his rivals by two and a half lengths in the G3 JRA Plate (2000m) on All Aged Stakes Day. Opened $4.80.

Temple of Boom (Flemington Race 5 No. 5) is now an 8-y-o but he is racing in fine fettle. His win at Eagle Farm in the G2 Victory Stakes in April was his first win since claiming the G1 Galaxy two years prior but he followed that with three great runs - a fourth in the G1 BTC Cup and narrow seconds in the G1 Doomben 10,000 and G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below). He's won three races down the Flemington straight and placed four more times from 12 attempts and he meets Chautauqua 6kg better off for his last start defeat. Opened $4.20.

Maastricht (Flemington Race 6 No. 9) has been crunched in the betting ($5.50 to $3.00) following the news that the Peter Moody trained filly Thinking Of You will miss this race and head to Sydney for the G1 Flight Stakes. It's a shame because I think this girl could have beaten her anyway and we would have gotten a better price. She's unbeaten in two career starts (albeit in much weaker grade) but she has been impressive both times. The stable is in good nick and the jockey is leading the Victorian premiership after a great start to the season. Opened $5.50.

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Moir Stakes/Rupert Clarke preview

Well it's been three months but the blog returns after a layoff due to a lack of Group 1 racing and an extended trip to the USA to catch some NFL.

It's a great weekend of racing with Group 1's on Friday night (Moonee Valley) and Sunday (Caulfield) plus a Saturday meeting at Rosehill that features no fewer than six Black Type races.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

In the last three weeks Brisbane trainer Rob Heathcote has had 10 winners from 38 runners at a strike rate of 26.3%.

He has just one entrant tonight - Buffering (Moonee Valley Race 4 No. 1). He also has some good chances tomorrow at Doomben in Coworth Park (Race 1 No. 2) and Big Decision (Race 7 No. 1).

Moonee Valley

*** As of 8am this morning the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy evening. ***

Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee : There have been seven runnings of this race since it went from 1000m to 1200m and five favourites have won. Four of those paid $2 or less. Mick Price and Craig Newitt combined to win this race last year with Samaready.

"The Speed Map" says - Buffering to lead at his leisure with Lankan Rupee getting a lovely trail. Angelic Light either stalks him or goes to the one-one. Rebel Dane and Unpretentious to settle back in the field.

In racebook order because there's only five of them:

Buffering will probably have to work to cross Lankan Rupee because I can't see Craig Newitt giving him the lead too easily. He has a great fresh record (9:6-1-1) but his last two first-up runs have resulted in defeat. If he's given a cosy ride in front he may be able to kick away from them on the turn and hold on. I've just got a feeling though that he will need the run despite two impressive jump-out wins in preparation for this.

Lankan Rupee was beaten as an odss-on favourite first-up but if he was going to be vulnerable at any time this prep that was the day. He hadn't raced for nearly five months, 1000m is short of his best, he drew wide and got caught in a speed battle too. He was a sitting shot to be run down but he fought it out all the way to the line. He can atone here.

Rebel Dane split Lankan Rupee and Buffering in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick in April (below) and has been given seven weeks to freshen up for this after a sound first-up third when beaten less than half a length by Sweet Idea and Messene in the G2 Missile Stakes. His fresh record is good (5:3-1-1) and he was an unlucky one length fifth behind Buffering at this course and distance in last year's G1 Manikato Stakes. Capable on his day.

Unpretentious. Only go at this track and distance was a narrow, fast finishing third to Spirit of Boom and Fontelina in the G1 William Reid Stakes in March. A talented gelding but he faces some pretty stiff opposition here.

Angelic Light has arguably the best record here at the Moonee Valley 1200m with two wins and a second from just the three attempts. The worry is her worst run last time in was third-up when she was beaten three and a half lengths in a Listed race down the Flemington straight in March.

Locky's Selections

2 Lankan Rupee
1 Buffering
3 Rebel Dane
5 Angelic Light

Caulfield

*** As of 11am today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a warm, windy, sunny afternoon. ***

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Cluster or Trust In A Gust : Looking at the last eight runnings six winners have been 4-y-o's and six have carried 54kg or less. Six were male and seven paid single figure odds and six had placed at their last start.

"The Speed Map" says - They rarely go slow in 1400m G1 handicaps. Sweet Idea to lead Sistine Demon. I can't imagine A Time For Julia being too far away either given her good draw. Ditto Dissident. Trust In A Gust should be up there too and I expect Alma's Fury will look to go forward from the horror draw. Could be a swoopers race.

Sweet Idea is super consistent with four wins and two seconds from her last eight outings. Her two seconds were to Steps in Time in the G1 Coolmore Stakes and Dissident in the G1 Memsie Stakes and her two failures were on affected ground so it may pay to overlook them. She's been well tried in early markets.

Dissident has been fantastic in two runs back this campaign with back-to-back G1 victories in the Memsie Stakes (below) and the Makybe Diva Stakes. He'll have to break all sorts of records to win this however with the 58kg because the only winner in recent times to carry more was the great Testa Rossa (58.5kg). He was also a 4-y-o but had won the race the previous year as a 3-y-o. I'm not happy about the drop back from 1600m to 1400m either but he is too good to dismiss entirely.

Cluster is finally starting to live up to the promise he displayed as a young horse. Long time followers of this blog will know that I was a huge fan and it's only now that I've dropped off and he doesn't have to carry me that he's finally started winning. Typical. Three wins from his last four and the prospect of  a good tempo point to him being a strong chance.

Trust in a Gust is hard to knock. His last two preparations have yielded eight wins and three seconds from 13 starts. Another who has been the subject of some support in early betting but he meets Atlante 2.5kg worse off than the day he lost to him at Moonee Valley two starts back.

Speediness proved he is up to this level when he all but won the G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill in March (below) when just nabbed by overseas raider Gordon Lord Byron. Second-up last preperation he was second beaten a length and a half by super mare Appearance in the G2 Apollo Stakes over this distance. Did enough first-up to show he's on track for a nice campaign but I would prefer to see him over a mile at this stage of his career.

A Time For Julia has appeared to have every chance at her two runs this time in but hasn't been able to get the chocolates. This is much harder too but she is honest and will put herself into the race from the good barrier. The drop to 52kg is a big help too. But she'll need it because she is leaving fillies and mares grade behind and taking on the big boys.

Sistine Demon had a great prep the last time he was in work with 11 starts for seven wins (including five on the trot) and two placings. His return was great in the G3 Bobbie Lewis Quality where he sat up on a hot speed down the Flemington straight and still managed to hang on for a three length fifth in an unsuitably short race after understandably running out of condition late. He's unbeaten in five goes at 1400m and two goes at this circuit. The concern is his missed a place in two of three second-up runs.

Double figures the rest of them but there are still other chances with Bull Point (not far away from Cluster last time), Atlante (first-up run was super) and Late Charge (unbeaten this time in). In fact you could probably make a case for all of them. But I have to pick a Top Four. So here goes.

Locky's Selections

7 Cluster
11 Bull Point
6 Atlante
1 Dissident

Other bets

Refer (Sandown Race 7 No. 10) was only four lengths behind Guelph in the G1 Flight Stakes last Spring (as a maiden!) and followed that with a two length third to Arabian Gold in the Listed Ethereal Stakes on Caulfield Cup Day. Broke her duck with an emphatic four and a half length first-up win at Geelong. Granted that was a maiden for fillies and mares but this doesn't look much harder. Opened at $4.00.

Mourinho (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 5) is a bit of a specialist here with with three wins from three goes at the 2040m and an overall track record of 9:4-2-0. His two runs this prep (both here) have been super and he gets a 2.5kg pull in the weights from The Cleaner who has to be suspect at the trip. Opened $5.50.

Looks Like The Cat (Caulfield Race 6 No. 8) was outstanding fresh in the G2 Danehill Stakes a fortnight ago and the step-up to 1400m now looks ideal at this stage of his preparation. He's my early Guineas-Derby horse so I'll be sticking with him here. Opened $3.50.

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