I am publishing early this week as I am off to Melbourne for the two big meetings at Moonee Valley.
Keep an eye on the weather and the scratchings because it's hard enough tipping winners on any given day - let alone trying to do it one or two days out.
Keep an eye on the weather and the scratchings because it's hard enough tipping winners on any given day - let alone trying to do it one or two days out.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
James McDonald has ridden 14 winners since Epsom Day on October 5. In the last 21 days he has bagged a double and a treble at separate midweek Randwick Kensington meetings plus two doubles at Hawkesbury (one of those today) and another at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas Day.
His best chances at Moonee Valley this weekend appear to come up on Saturday with Savvy Nature (Race 5 No. 1) and It's A Dundeel (Race 10 No. 11).
Moonee Valley
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The next two days should be partly cloudy with the chance of showers. ***
Samaready looked super impressive in the Moir Stakes (below) when she easily accounted for some quality sprinters like Buffering, Bel Sprinter and Epaulette. Her record is outstanding with six wins from eight starts plus a third behind Pierro and Snitzerland in a Golden Slipper. She's only really failed once when first-up as a three-year-old and she was immediately spelled.
Buffering beat everyone bar the aforementioned filly in the Moir and did so comfortably despite pulling up lame. He'd have to find big improvement to beat the mare but I think he can make a race of it, especially if he leads unchallenged as I suspect.
I don't know enough about Lucky Nine to tip him and I'm happy to leave him out because despite his great record he has never encountered a rain affected track. First start in a new country on a tricky circuit too. Good luck to them but I can't have him.
Rebel Dane faces the tough task of dropping back to 1200m after claiming the Rupert Clarke Stakes at 1400m but that race is looking strong with Solzhenitsyn (3rd) going on to win the Toorak and Speediness (4th) unlucky in the same race after drawing wide. He'll be storming late but will the straight be too short for him?
Arinosa was good to us last time out and has been good to us more than once but this is a much harder task. Not sure about her at the Valley especially as she does like to get so far back and her wet track form is poor. She is flying though.
Temple of Boom is the roughie that I could entertain for exotics if the track is badly rain affected because he is an absolute swimmer. Five wins and four seconds from 11 goes on slow or heavy and the Queensland horses are winning a few races.
Buffering beat everyone bar the aforementioned filly in the Moir and did so comfortably despite pulling up lame. He'd have to find big improvement to beat the mare but I think he can make a race of it, especially if he leads unchallenged as I suspect.
I don't know enough about Lucky Nine to tip him and I'm happy to leave him out because despite his great record he has never encountered a rain affected track. First start in a new country on a tricky circuit too. Good luck to them but I can't have him.
Rebel Dane faces the tough task of dropping back to 1200m after claiming the Rupert Clarke Stakes at 1400m but that race is looking strong with Solzhenitsyn (3rd) going on to win the Toorak and Speediness (4th) unlucky in the same race after drawing wide. He'll be storming late but will the straight be too short for him?
Arinosa was good to us last time out and has been good to us more than once but this is a much harder task. Not sure about her at the Valley especially as she does like to get so far back and her wet track form is poor. She is flying though.
Temple of Boom is the roughie that I could entertain for exotics if the track is badly rain affected because he is an absolute swimmer. Five wins and four seconds from 11 goes on slow or heavy and the Queensland horses are winning a few races.
Locky's Selections
10 Samaready
2 Buffering
12 Arinosa
7 Rebel Dane
2 Buffering
12 Arinosa
7 Rebel Dane
*** Atlantic Jewel is an early scratching ***
I was all over It's A Dundeel before he drew the carpark but I'm going to stick because I think it can be overcome. Arguably his best run last time in work was when third up and stepping to the 2000m where he demolished them in the Rosehill Guineas. Subsequent Doncaster winner Sacred Falls was nearly seven lengths away in second place. He's had a similar prep this time.
Fiorente is another who has to deal with a diabolical barrier. That plus the new jockey and the fact that Gai doesn't win many Group 1's during the Melbourne Spring leaves me somewhat cool on his chances but he has had a win here at the Valley.
Puissance De Lune has the best draw of the three top fancies but again a new hoop is in the saddle and as capable as Ben Melham is he is no Glen Boss. Capable of taking up a handy spot and he is finally getting to his goal races so expect him to be spot on.
Long John got us the chocolates in the Guineas but he faces a stiff task here because three-year-olds don't win very often - just five in the last 37 years. They do have a better strike rate place wise though with eighteen members of the younger brigade filling a minor placing in that same period. So place or quinella might be the way to go if you like this bloke and why wouldn't you - Darley are in great touch. Likely to press forward from the tricky gate.
Happy Trails is the best roughie for mine. He has a win here at Moonee Valley to his credit and it's amazing how often a horse who is in the news for all the wrong reasons comes out and wins a feature race only to hit the headlines again for all the right reasons. He gave weight to the likes of Puissance De Lune, Fawkner, Fiorente, Hawkspur, Jet Away, Dear Demi and Royal Descent in the Turnbull (below) and beat them all over this trip when coming from well back. Many of those horses franked the formline by running well in the Caulfield Cup last week. Barrier two appeals.
When it comes to Green Moon I'm worried about how much work he will have to do from the wide barrier and the fact that he just doesn't seem to be going as well as he was this time last year. No.
Shamus Award. What a difference 12 months makes. This day last year I tipped this bloke as my "Lock of the Week" when he ran 3rd on debut in the Inglis Banner. A year on and he has placed in a Caulfield Guineas, a VRC Sires Produce, a Stutt Stakes and a Maribyrnong Plate. This does look to be a bridge too far however but he can lay claim to being arguably the best maiden in Australia.
Super Cool has looked a bit one paced at his last few runs and I must admit I'm surprised they didn't go to the Caulfield Cup. Won here at this distance in the Vase on this day last year (beating It's A Dundeel) and is an Australian Cup winner at this trip at w-f-a. Horror draw.
Foreteller would have been better at Flemington in the Mackinnon I would have thought because Moonee Valley is unlikely to suit his style of racing. Safely held at his last two outings.
Masked Marvel is looking to give Team Williams another big Group 1 in the space of a week and Michael Rodd will be looking to ease the disappointment of the scratching of Atlantic Jewel. He's coming off two good runs in Sydney and he is four runs into his prep - just like recent winners for the stable Seville (Metropolitan), Sea Moon (Herbert Power) and Fawkner (Caulfield Cup).
I was all over It's A Dundeel before he drew the carpark but I'm going to stick because I think it can be overcome. Arguably his best run last time in work was when third up and stepping to the 2000m where he demolished them in the Rosehill Guineas. Subsequent Doncaster winner Sacred Falls was nearly seven lengths away in second place. He's had a similar prep this time.
Fiorente is another who has to deal with a diabolical barrier. That plus the new jockey and the fact that Gai doesn't win many Group 1's during the Melbourne Spring leaves me somewhat cool on his chances but he has had a win here at the Valley.
Puissance De Lune has the best draw of the three top fancies but again a new hoop is in the saddle and as capable as Ben Melham is he is no Glen Boss. Capable of taking up a handy spot and he is finally getting to his goal races so expect him to be spot on.
Long John got us the chocolates in the Guineas but he faces a stiff task here because three-year-olds don't win very often - just five in the last 37 years. They do have a better strike rate place wise though with eighteen members of the younger brigade filling a minor placing in that same period. So place or quinella might be the way to go if you like this bloke and why wouldn't you - Darley are in great touch. Likely to press forward from the tricky gate.
Happy Trails is the best roughie for mine. He has a win here at Moonee Valley to his credit and it's amazing how often a horse who is in the news for all the wrong reasons comes out and wins a feature race only to hit the headlines again for all the right reasons. He gave weight to the likes of Puissance De Lune, Fawkner, Fiorente, Hawkspur, Jet Away, Dear Demi and Royal Descent in the Turnbull (below) and beat them all over this trip when coming from well back. Many of those horses franked the formline by running well in the Caulfield Cup last week. Barrier two appeals.
Shamus Award. What a difference 12 months makes. This day last year I tipped this bloke as my "Lock of the Week" when he ran 3rd on debut in the Inglis Banner. A year on and he has placed in a Caulfield Guineas, a VRC Sires Produce, a Stutt Stakes and a Maribyrnong Plate. This does look to be a bridge too far however but he can lay claim to being arguably the best maiden in Australia.
Super Cool has looked a bit one paced at his last few runs and I must admit I'm surprised they didn't go to the Caulfield Cup. Won here at this distance in the Vase on this day last year (beating It's A Dundeel) and is an Australian Cup winner at this trip at w-f-a. Horror draw.
Foreteller would have been better at Flemington in the Mackinnon I would have thought because Moonee Valley is unlikely to suit his style of racing. Safely held at his last two outings.
Masked Marvel is looking to give Team Williams another big Group 1 in the space of a week and Michael Rodd will be looking to ease the disappointment of the scratching of Atlantic Jewel. He's coming off two good runs in Sydney and he is four runs into his prep - just like recent winners for the stable Seville (Metropolitan), Sea Moon (Herbert Power) and Fawkner (Caulfield Cup).
Locky's Selections
11 It's A Dundeel
2 Happy Trails
8 Puissance De Lune
9 Masked Marvel
2 Happy Trails
8 Puissance De Lune
9 Masked Marvel
Other bets
Black Cash (Moonee Valley FRIDAY Race 2 No. 1) is another Queenslander hoping to come south and pinch the Victorian prizemoney. In form hoop Damian Browne takes the ride and should offset the big weight but he's earned it after two strong wins in Brisbane this prep. $2.50.
Sneak A Peek (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 7 No. 2) has a sense of timing about him after two good runs in Sydney. Should be peaking now and the stable broke through for a much needed Spring Carnival feature win when Ibicenco claimed the Geelong Cup yesterday. $3.50.
Sacred Falls (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 8 No. 9) is well in here at the weight-for-age conditions. Meets Toydini two and a half kilos better off than in the Epsom and gets half a kilo from the other main danger in Speediness. Fourth run last time in he won the Doncaster on a wet track at this distance. $4.50.
Sneak A Peek (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 7 No. 2) has a sense of timing about him after two good runs in Sydney. Should be peaking now and the stable broke through for a much needed Spring Carnival feature win when Ibicenco claimed the Geelong Cup yesterday. $3.50.
Sacred Falls (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 8 No. 9) is well in here at the weight-for-age conditions. Meets Toydini two and a half kilos better off than in the Epsom and gets half a kilo from the other main danger in Speediness. Fourth run last time in he won the Doncaster on a wet track at this distance. $4.50.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Queensland trainer Liam Birchley doesn't have a huge team but still maintains an impressive strike rate. He's had 5 winners from his last 20 starters and he has just the one runner at Caulfield this weekend too and that horse is Liesele (Caulfield Race 5 No. 8).
She will be ridden by Damian Browne who combined with Birchley last weekend to win at Caulfield aboard Missy Longstocking. Browne is in good nick himself at the moment with 11 winners from his last 33 rides. $31. 1st. $21.40 win / $6.10 place. Little fish are sweet.
She will be ridden by Damian Browne who combined with Birchley last weekend to win at Caulfield aboard Missy Longstocking. Browne is in good nick himself at the moment with 11 winners from his last 33 rides. $31. 1st. $21.40 win / $6.10 place. Little fish are sweet.
Caulfield
Caulfield Cup (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
Jet Away was by far the run of the race so I can't have anything that finished behind him going forward. Dandino would have won if not for the barrier.
Locky's Selections
12 Hawkspur (7th)
15 Silent Achiever (8th)
2 Dandino (2nd) $3.70 place
Other bets
Hucklebuck (Caulfield Race 2 No. 6) is one I identified as unlucky at Moonee Valley last start. Probably should have beaten eventual winner Lion Of Belfort who has subsequently won. Trainer and jockey are in good touch. Will be short but should simply win. $2.60. 1st. $3.00 win / $1.40 place. If it had been a prizefight the trainers of the others would have thrown in the towel approaching the home turn. One to follow.
San Diego (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) looks a Derby horse in the making and the Stutt Stakes is looking a good form race with Divine Calling and Shamus Award placing in the Caulfield Guineas. This bloke went to the line well in that race despite not getting a lot of room in the concluding stages. Darley is winning all the big three-year-old races at the moment. $5.00. 2nd. $1.90 place. Great Derby trial, winner was just too brilliant.
San Diego (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) looks a Derby horse in the making and the Stutt Stakes is looking a good form race with Divine Calling and Shamus Award placing in the Caulfield Guineas. This bloke went to the line well in that race despite not getting a lot of room in the concluding stages. Darley is winning all the big three-year-old races at the moment. $5.00. 2nd. $1.90 place. Great Derby trial, winner was just too brilliant.
Peron (Caulfield Race 9 No. 14) just missed when tipped as the good thing of the day last start but she had genuine excuses. Was wide without cover for much of the trip and got flushed out way too soon. Drawn to get an easier run tomorrow. $4.40. 7th. Pulled up with heat stress and had a poor post-race recovery and has been sent for a spell. Follow in the Autumn.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Let's see what this Porsche can do!
- James Dean, U.S. Route 466, 30 September 1955
- James Dean, U.S. Route 466, 30 September 1955
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