Four Group 1 races tipped in last weekend for three winners selected on top and the other winner in my top two, plus I found another winner in my other bets.
Hopefully things will continue to improve.
Hopefully things will continue to improve.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Queensland trainer Liam Birchley doesn't have a huge team but still maintains an impressive strike rate. He's had 5 winners from his last 20 starters and he has just the one runner at Caulfield this weekend too and that horse is Liesele (Caulfield Race 5 No. 8).
She will be ridden by Damian Browne who combined with Birchley last weekend to win at Caulfield aboard Missy Longstocking. Browne is in good nick himself at the moment with 11 winners from his last 33 rides. $31.
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
*** Ibicenco is an early scratching ***
How important is the draw from this 2400m start at Caulfield? History would seem to suggest it is very important with 15 of the last 20 winners drawing single digit barriers. Having said that, three of the last four winners drew 13 or worse including Dunaden last year who came from the extreme outside in 18. So it can be done, but not often.
Dunaden also brings us to the question of weight. The 58kg he carried last year is the highest weight lumped to victory since Ming Dynasty in 1980. Since that day 33 years ago only Sydeston, Sky Heights, Northerly and Viewed have carried more than 54.5kg. So again you can do it but just looking at those names you have to be a pretty good one. But can that stat be trusted given the weights have been raised?
Four-year-olds have dominated in recent times with 10 of the last 17 winners coming from the previous season's crop of three-year-olds. Six four-year-old mares have won in the last 30 years which is a pretty good strike rate considering that only two or three start every year, if that.
There are occasionally blowouts in this race but the winner is usually in commission. 24 of the last 30 winners have paid $17 or less so searching for a 50/1 winner probably isn't the way to go.
The Turnbull Stakes (below) has been the best guide in recent years (seven of the last 14 winners came through it) and it does look the strongest form race this year. The best runs from that race for mine and their relative weights tomorrow are Fawkner (-0.5kg), Hawkspur (-2.0kg), Silent Achiever (-1.0kg), Jet Away (-0.5kg), Dear Demi (-1.5kg), Mr O'ceirin (-1.0kg) and Royal Descent (-0.5kg). All were within four lengths of the winner and quite a few didn't have a lot of luck in running.
The international horses cannot be ruled out either because Taufan's Melody, All The Good and Dunaden have won in the last 15 years.
Since 2000 five winners have started favourite or equal favourite.
Hawkspur ticks all the boxes for me except the barrier but with a bit of magic from "Pumper" I'm sure that can be negated. The best run by panels in the Turnbull and I loved the way he picked up and sprinted again after being hampered not once but twice. Meets them all better at the weights too. Dandino has to go in on the back of his super gallop and Craig Williams is ultra confident. Silent Achiever is flying and has had the perfect prep.
I've had to leave out some talented types like Jet Away, Royal Descent and Fawkner but the trouble with picking a Top Three is you're only allowed to tip three.
How important is the draw from this 2400m start at Caulfield? History would seem to suggest it is very important with 15 of the last 20 winners drawing single digit barriers. Having said that, three of the last four winners drew 13 or worse including Dunaden last year who came from the extreme outside in 18. So it can be done, but not often.
Dunaden also brings us to the question of weight. The 58kg he carried last year is the highest weight lumped to victory since Ming Dynasty in 1980. Since that day 33 years ago only Sydeston, Sky Heights, Northerly and Viewed have carried more than 54.5kg. So again you can do it but just looking at those names you have to be a pretty good one. But can that stat be trusted given the weights have been raised?
Four-year-olds have dominated in recent times with 10 of the last 17 winners coming from the previous season's crop of three-year-olds. Six four-year-old mares have won in the last 30 years which is a pretty good strike rate considering that only two or three start every year, if that.
There are occasionally blowouts in this race but the winner is usually in commission. 24 of the last 30 winners have paid $17 or less so searching for a 50/1 winner probably isn't the way to go.
The Turnbull Stakes (below) has been the best guide in recent years (seven of the last 14 winners came through it) and it does look the strongest form race this year. The best runs from that race for mine and their relative weights tomorrow are Fawkner (-0.5kg), Hawkspur (-2.0kg), Silent Achiever (-1.0kg), Jet Away (-0.5kg), Dear Demi (-1.5kg), Mr O'ceirin (-1.0kg) and Royal Descent (-0.5kg). All were within four lengths of the winner and quite a few didn't have a lot of luck in running.
The international horses cannot be ruled out either because Taufan's Melody, All The Good and Dunaden have won in the last 15 years.
Since 2000 five winners have started favourite or equal favourite.
Hawkspur ticks all the boxes for me except the barrier but with a bit of magic from "Pumper" I'm sure that can be negated. The best run by panels in the Turnbull and I loved the way he picked up and sprinted again after being hampered not once but twice. Meets them all better at the weights too. Dandino has to go in on the back of his super gallop and Craig Williams is ultra confident. Silent Achiever is flying and has had the perfect prep.
I've had to leave out some talented types like Jet Away, Royal Descent and Fawkner but the trouble with picking a Top Three is you're only allowed to tip three.
Locky's Selections
12 Hawkspur
15 Silent Achiever
2 Dandino
Other bets
Hucklebuck (Caulfield Race 2 No. 6) is one I identified as unlucky at Moonee Valley last start. Probably should have beaten eventual winner Lion Of Belfort who has subsequently won. Trainer and jockey are in good touch. Will be short but should simply win. $2.60.
San Diego (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) looks a Derby horse in the making and the Stutt Stakes is looking a good form race with Divine Calling and Shamus Award placing in the Caulfield Guineas. This bloke went to the line well in that race despite not getting a lot of room in the concluding stages. Darley is winning all the big three-year-old races at the moment. $5.00.
San Diego (Caulfield Race 4 No. 4) looks a Derby horse in the making and the Stutt Stakes is looking a good form race with Divine Calling and Shamus Award placing in the Caulfield Guineas. This bloke went to the line well in that race despite not getting a lot of room in the concluding stages. Darley is winning all the big three-year-old races at the moment. $5.00.
Peron (Caulfield Race 9 No. 14) just missed when tipped as the good thing of the day last start but she had genuine excuses. Was wide without cover for much of the trip and got flushed out way too soon. Drawn to get an easier run tomorrow. $4.40.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Phillip Stokes and Dom Tourneur. Don't like coming back to these guys so soon as I only gave them a wrap a few weeks ago but they have forced their way in through sheer weight of winners. Combined at Flemington last Saturday on Molto Bene, Strathalbyn on Monday with Auto Pilot and at Balaklava on Wednesday with War Heights. Tourneur's last six rides for Stokes have resulted in five winners. Stokes has had 10 winners from his last 20 starters. They combine tomorrow with Eclair Big Bang (Caulfield Race 10 No. 6). 14th. Jockey Dom Tourneur reported he didn't handle the firm track and may have jarred up.
Caulfield
Caulfield Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
Long John got to the front too soon but was still able to hold off the vastly improved Divine Calling. The former now heads to the Cox Plate. Shamus Award flashed late after being unable to muster any early speed. Dissident had a tough run and El Roca ran into more trouble than a St Kilda player on Mad Monday.
Locky's Selections
4 Long John (1st) $4.10 win / $1.80 place
6 Eclair Big Bang (14th)
1 Dissident (4th)
10 El Roca (5th)
Atlantic Jewel won as we thought she would. $2.30 in a Cox Plate though? Not sure I want to be diving into that. Foreteller should be competitive in the Mackinnon and I'm not sure where they go with Super Cool because he looks too dour for a Cox Plate.
6 Eclair Big Bang (14th)
1 Dissident (4th)
10 El Roca (5th)
Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Atlantic Jewel won as we thought she would. $2.30 in a Cox Plate though? Not sure I want to be diving into that. Foreteller should be competitive in the Mackinnon and I'm not sure where they go with Super Cool because he looks too dour for a Cox Plate.
Locky's Selections
6 Atlantic Jewel (1st) $1.40 win / $1.10 place
2 Foreteller (2nd) $2.40 place
5 Super Cool (3rd) NTD
Trifecta 6-2-5 $4.90
Exacta 6-2 $3.90
Quinella 2-6 $3.10
Solzhenitsyn (below) lumped 58kg and dragged the field up to a hot speed then defied all comers. Strong win. The French horse Trevieres looked good in his first start on Aussie soil. Blackie is in career best form and Speediness just needs to draw a barrier and he'll win a nice race this Spring. Perhaps the Waterford Crystal at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day?
2 Foreteller (2nd) $2.40 place
5 Super Cool (3rd) NTD
Trifecta 6-2-5 $4.90
Exacta 6-2 $3.90
Quinella 2-6 $3.10
Toorak Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
Solzhenitsyn (below) lumped 58kg and dragged the field up to a hot speed then defied all comers. Strong win. The French horse Trevieres looked good in his first start on Aussie soil. Blackie is in career best form and Speediness just needs to draw a barrier and he'll win a nice race this Spring. Perhaps the Waterford Crystal at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day?
Locky's Selections
2 Solzhenitsyn (1st) $6.80 win / $2.40 place
1 Linton (8th)
6 Speediness (4th)
17 Bass Strait (9th)
1 Linton (8th)
6 Speediness (4th)
17 Bass Strait (9th)
Randwick
Spring Champion Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
The winner heads to the VRC Derby now despite initial statements from the Darley team that he would go straight to the paddock. Criterion could train on because he only just seems to be peaking now. Thought everyone else had their chance.
Drago sacked. Now watch him win the AAMI Vase and the VRC Derby at successive starts now that I've jumped off.
Locky's Selections
6 Drago (7th)
5 Complacent (1st) $5.60 win / $2.10 place
8 Rock Hero (8th)
4 Savvy Nature (3rd) $1.60 place
Any 2 4-5 $3.60
5 Complacent (1st) $5.60 win / $2.10 place
8 Rock Hero (8th)
4 Savvy Nature (3rd) $1.60 place
Any 2 4-5 $3.60
Other bets
Piacenza (Caulfield Race 1 No. 11) is a first starter and Tony McEvoy doesn't often debut them in big race meetings in town. She is a first-crop daughter of Denman who claimed juvenile races last weekend at Doomben (Grapevine) and Randwick (Law). McEvoy enjoyed success too last weekend with another first starter in Risen From Doubt saluting at Flemington. $6.00. 3rd. $1.50 place. Desperately unlucky. One to follow.
Cosmic Endeavour (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) was a huge run last start when trapped wide and is drawn to get a better passage here. Gai Waterhouse is going alright in Melbourne too. $4.20. 4th. Every possible chance.
Unpretentious (Caulfield Race 4 No. 6) is a potential Group 1 horse in the making and should account for this lot although I would have preferred 1100m first-up. $4.00. 1st. $4.00 win / $1.50 place. Looks a topline sprinter in the making.
Cosmic Endeavour (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) was a huge run last start when trapped wide and is drawn to get a better passage here. Gai Waterhouse is going alright in Melbourne too. $4.20. 4th. Every possible chance.
Unpretentious (Caulfield Race 4 No. 6) is a potential Group 1 horse in the making and should account for this lot although I would have preferred 1100m first-up. $4.00. 1st. $4.00 win / $1.50 place. Looks a topline sprinter in the making.
Richie's Vibe (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) won't have to weave a passage here like he did last start because he's drawn favourably. Trainer and jockey combined to win the Turnbull last week with Happy Trails. $2.70. 4th. It wasn't enough for Dunn to slaughter Piacenza for me. He had to butcher this one too.
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