A much better week of tipping last Saturday so we'll stick to the basics as it seemed to do the trick.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Phillip Stokes and Dom Tourneur. Don't like coming back to these guys so soon as I only gave them a wrap a few weeks ago but they have forced their way in through sheer weight of winners. Combined at Flemington last Saturday on Molto Bene, Strathalbyn on Monday with Auto Pilot and at Balaklava on Wednesday with War Heights. Tourneur's last six rides for Stokes have resulted in five winners. Stokes has had 10 winners from his last 20 starters. They combine tomorrow with Eclair Big Bang (Caulfield Race 10 No. 6).
Caulfield
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
Long John will start favourite and has looked good all the way through this campaign and since I've been on the bandwagon I'm staying solid. Love barrier one because he can sit handy.
Prince Harada is the next in the market and he is coming off form behind Zoustar which is looking good at the moment. Has drawn wide but I think he's better off out than in.
The Kiwi El Roca has been well tried after just failing to hang on in the Guineas Prelude - his first start in this country and only his third overall. Drawn to get a gun run. Expect improvement.
Dissident was only two and a half lengths behind subsequent Epsom runner-up Streama when sixth in the George Main last start. Finished alongside the likes of Hawkspur and Fawkner who were great at Flemington last weekend. Before that beat all bar the talented Zoustar in the Golden Rose despite a torrid run wide on the speed. Not drawn to get any favours here tomorrow though either. Respect.
Eclair Big Bang beat both El Roca and Long John last start (below) and appeared to do so on his merits so why the price discrepancy? Well drawn and ts mentioned previously the Stokes/Tourneur combination could win on a broomstick at the moment. Wary.
I think they are the only winning hopes but in First Fours I could also entertain 2, 3, 5, 11 & 14.
Prince Harada is the next in the market and he is coming off form behind Zoustar which is looking good at the moment. Has drawn wide but I think he's better off out than in.
The Kiwi El Roca has been well tried after just failing to hang on in the Guineas Prelude - his first start in this country and only his third overall. Drawn to get a gun run. Expect improvement.
Dissident was only two and a half lengths behind subsequent Epsom runner-up Streama when sixth in the George Main last start. Finished alongside the likes of Hawkspur and Fawkner who were great at Flemington last weekend. Before that beat all bar the talented Zoustar in the Golden Rose despite a torrid run wide on the speed. Not drawn to get any favours here tomorrow though either. Respect.
Eclair Big Bang beat both El Roca and Long John last start (below) and appeared to do so on his merits so why the price discrepancy? Well drawn and ts mentioned previously the Stokes/Tourneur combination could win on a broomstick at the moment. Wary.
I think they are the only winning hopes but in First Fours I could also entertain 2, 3, 5, 11 & 14.
Locky's Selections
4 Long John
6 Eclair Big Bang
1 Dissident
10 El Roca
Locky's Selections
6 Eclair Big Bang
1 Dissident
10 El Roca
Caulfield Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** Green Moon is an early scratching
Atlantic Jewel should be too good but I can't step into $1.20.
Foreteller does possess an electric turn of foot and with a field of just five he will be close in the run and he is a known 2000m horse. He's not thinking about Cox Plates and Caulfield Cups either.
Super Cool is however and his last two runs looked like those of a horse looking for 2400m. Don't think he'll have enough dash.
The other two look hopelessly out of their depth.
Atlantic Jewel should be too good but I can't step into $1.20.
Foreteller does possess an electric turn of foot and with a field of just five he will be close in the run and he is a known 2000m horse. He's not thinking about Cox Plates and Caulfield Cups either.
Super Cool is however and his last two runs looked like those of a horse looking for 2400m. Don't think he'll have enough dash.
The other two look hopelessly out of their depth.
Locky's Selections
6 Atlantic Jewel
2 Foreteller
5 Super Cool
2 Foreteller
5 Super Cool
Toorak Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
The Stradbroke Handicap is looking like a pretty good form race. Linton (1st) and Solzhenitsyn (5th) have returned in good order and Streama (3rd) has won the George Main and got beaten a pimple in the Epsom. Buffering (2nd) beat all but Samaready in the Moir and Spirit of Boom (4th) has been placed in The Shorts and the Gilgai. Even Decision Time (17th) who only beat one runner home has subsequently won.
When you add the fact that 22 of the last 30 winners have drawn a single digit barrier and that only three winners have paid more than $13 since 1995 and I keep coming back to the top two. Especially given that few horses win on the minimum and that just three and a half kilos separates top and bottom weight.
Speediness looked great storming home in the Rupert Clarke but has drawn the car park and Bass Strait has good form behind Fiorente. Mouro and Trevieres the next best.
When you add the fact that 22 of the last 30 winners have drawn a single digit barrier and that only three winners have paid more than $13 since 1995 and I keep coming back to the top two. Especially given that few horses win on the minimum and that just three and a half kilos separates top and bottom weight.
Speediness looked great storming home in the Rupert Clarke but has drawn the car park and Bass Strait has good form behind Fiorente. Mouro and Trevieres the next best.
Locky's Selections
2 Solzhenitsyn
1 Linton
6 Speediness
17 Bass Strait
1 Linton
6 Speediness
17 Bass Strait
Randwick
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***
Spring Champion Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
Sticking with Drago as I've been on him all along. Blinkers go on for the first time so that's a fair sign it's grand final day and Anthony Cummings does have a habit of having them ready to peak on the right day. Just concerned that he may already be looking for the 2500m of the Derby.
Complacent got all the favours with the rails run last start but who is to say he won't get a similar run again tomorrow from the one gate? Looks a nice horse in the making but this may have come around a little bit too soon. Love him as an Autumn three-year-old prospect though.
Rock Hero was close to the run of the day last Saturday after blowing the start and being held up in the straight. Looks a big strong boy and 2000m should pose no threat.
Savvy Nature got a lovely drag into the race last start behind Drago and still couldn't get past Complacent although as previously stated the Darley horse did get a lovely run in transit.
Locky's Selections
Complacent got all the favours with the rails run last start but who is to say he won't get a similar run again tomorrow from the one gate? Looks a nice horse in the making but this may have come around a little bit too soon. Love him as an Autumn three-year-old prospect though.
Rock Hero was close to the run of the day last Saturday after blowing the start and being held up in the straight. Looks a big strong boy and 2000m should pose no threat.
Savvy Nature got a lovely drag into the race last start behind Drago and still couldn't get past Complacent although as previously stated the Darley horse did get a lovely run in transit.
Locky's Selections
6 Drago
5 Complacent
8 Rock Hero
4 Savvy Nature
5 Complacent
8 Rock Hero
4 Savvy Nature
Other bets
Piacenza (Caulfield Race 1 No. 11) is a first starter and Tony McEvoy doesn't often debut them in big race meetings in town. She is a first-crop daughter of Denman who claimed juvenile races last weekend at Doomben (Grapevine) and Randwick (Law). McEvoy enjoyed success too last weekend with another first starter in Risen From Doubt saluting at Flemington. $6.00.
Cosmic Endeavour (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) was a huge run last start when trapped wide and is drawn to get a better passage here. Gai Waterhouse is going alright in Melbourne too. $4.20.
Unpretentious (Caulfield Race 4 No. 6) is a potential Group 1 horse in the making and should account for this lot although I would have preferred 1100m first-up. $4.00.
Cosmic Endeavour (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) was a huge run last start when trapped wide and is drawn to get a better passage here. Gai Waterhouse is going alright in Melbourne too. $4.20.
Unpretentious (Caulfield Race 4 No. 6) is a potential Group 1 horse in the making and should account for this lot although I would have preferred 1100m first-up. $4.00.
Richie's Vibe (Caulfield Race 7 No. 10) won't have to weave a passage here like he did last start because he's drawn favourably. Trainer and jockey combined to win the Turnbull last week with Happy Trails. $2.70.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
No surprise to see that as Epsom Day approaches Gai Waterhouse is finding some form because she has dominated this day over the last decade. She's trained 15 winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of almost one in four. Has a host of good chances tomorrow in both Sydney and Melbourne. Had a dirty day but still got the chocolates with Randwick Race 2 No. 6 Law at $15.00 win / $3.50 place.
Randwick
Epsom Handicap (Group 1, 1600m, handicap)
Boban has turned the corner and looks a good horse. Streama was brave. Four-year-olds Toydini, Spurtonic and Ecuador can measure up in the Autumn. Malavio went enormous and Sizzling was just OK.
Locky's Selections
10 Boban (1st) $6.70 win / $2.70 place
16 Ecuador (6th)
5 Streama (2nd) $2.00 place
4 Rekindled Interest (12th)
Exacta 10-5 $37.70
Quinella 5-10 $18.00
Any 2 10-5 $5.40
Don't think any of these will pose any major threat during the Melbourne Spring.
16 Ecuador (6th)
5 Streama (2nd) $2.00 place
4 Rekindled Interest (12th)
Exacta 10-5 $37.70
Quinella 5-10 $18.00
Any 2 10-5 $5.40
The Metropolitan (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
Don't think any of these will pose any major threat during the Melbourne Spring.
Locky's Selections
2 Moriarty (5th)
7 Prince Cheri (6th)
5 Sneak A Peak (3rd) $5.70 place
1 Mourayan (8th)
Guelph was simply too good and appears to have the Thousand Guineas at her mercy.
Locky's Selections
7 Prince Cheri (6th)
5 Sneak A Peak (3rd) $5.70 place
1 Mourayan (8th)
Flight Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Guelph was simply too good and appears to have the Thousand Guineas at her mercy.
Locky's Selections
1 Guelph (1st) $1.30 win / $1.10 place
2 Bound For Earth (3rd) NTD
3 Arabian Gold (4th)
2 Bound For Earth (3rd) NTD
3 Arabian Gold (4th)
Flemington
Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)
I was all around it here but missed the winner. Gave weight and a start to most of them so no real excuses. Puissance de Lune still looks on track for The Cup, Fawkner loomed but just wasn't strong enough. Hawkspur just about wins the Caulfield Cup on that and Fiorente the Cox Plate. Silent Achiever is flying and there's a nice race in her somewhere and Jet Away was an eye-catcher first-up in a G1 2000m race. Super Cool and Royal Descent didn't see a lot of daylight.
Locky's Selections
11 Fawkner (3rd) $3.70 place
16 Royal Descent (11th)
5 Hawkspur (5th)
6 Fiorente (4th)
7 Puissance De Lune (2nd) $2.00 place
Any 2 7-11 $12.70
16 Royal Descent (11th)
5 Hawkspur (5th)
6 Fiorente (4th)
7 Puissance De Lune (2nd) $2.00 place
Any 2 7-11 $12.70
Other bets
Peron (Flemington Race 10 No. 9) just wins. The Bet of the Day. Locky's "Lock of the Week". I got $3.60. 2nd. $1.60. Poor ride again deep and facing the breeze but still had the cheek to kick. Took a tough, seasoned older mare to run her down. Don't dismiss.
Politeness (Flemington Race 7 No. 6) couldn't possibly win last start when they crawled through the first half mile in 54.67 sec then sprinted home in the fastest closing sectional of the day. Her effort to come from worse than midfield to be beaten three quarters of a length was full of merit. Flemington should give her plenty of time to wind up and unleash her powerful sprint. $3.00. 7th. Bad ride wide with no cover. Forgive.
Zoustar (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could well be the best sprinting three-year-old in the country given what he did from a horror draw against the pattern in the Golden Rose. Set weights appeals as otherwise he'd be giving Va Pensiero about 6kg and he'd be giving the rest another 6kg at the very least. $1.80 so play him in doubles. 1st. $1.90 win / $1.10 place. Top class. Should win the Coolmore on Derby Day.
Arinosa (Randwick Race 8 No. 13) trialed well and I think she might just be better than these. $4.50. 1st. $3.40 win / $1.80 place. Continues to improve and impress. Stick with her. The G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley the Friday night before the Cox Plate is her next likely target.
Moudre (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) is an each-way pinch. Sea Moon the only danger. $6.00. 7th. Poor.
Zoustar (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could well be the best sprinting three-year-old in the country given what he did from a horror draw against the pattern in the Golden Rose. Set weights appeals as otherwise he'd be giving Va Pensiero about 6kg and he'd be giving the rest another 6kg at the very least. $1.80 so play him in doubles. 1st. $1.90 win / $1.10 place. Top class. Should win the Coolmore on Derby Day.
Arinosa (Randwick Race 8 No. 13) trialed well and I think she might just be better than these. $4.50. 1st. $3.40 win / $1.80 place. Continues to improve and impress. Stick with her. The G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley the Friday night before the Cox Plate is her next likely target.
Moudre (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) is an each-way pinch. Sea Moon the only danger. $6.00. 7th. Poor.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
You have got to be kidding me.
- Brett Prebble, Caulfield Steward's Room following the Sea Moon protest, 5 October 2013
- Brett Prebble, Caulfield Steward's Room following the Sea Moon protest, 5 October 2013
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