Time to get back to basics because the form has been slipping of late so it's out with all the non-essentials with the focus strictly on the tips.
News and special interest stories have been punted because it's just information overload at the moment with the Spring Carnival about to begin in earnest.
I can't help it if this offends my three loyal readers - sorry Mum.
News and special interest stories have been punted because it's just information overload at the moment with the Spring Carnival about to begin in earnest.
I can't help it if this offends my three loyal readers - sorry Mum.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
No surprise to see that as Epsom Day approaches Gai Waterhouse is finding some form because she has dominated this day over the last decade. She's trained 15 winners in the last three weeks at a strike rate of almost one in four. Has a host of good chances tomorrow in both Sydney and Melbourne.
Randwick
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***
Four-year-olds have dominated this race in recent times with 15 of the last 20 winners (including eight of the last 10) being last season's three-year-olds just turned four. It seems to be a race tailor made for talented young horses on the way up who have avoided the handicapper. Inside gates are a big plus too with 10 of the last 15 winners coming from a single digit barrier. Gai Waterhouse has trained a staggering six of the last ten winners.
The Waller stable has some good prospects today and none more so than Boban. He's always shown ability but has been a bit of a thinker but it appears the penny has finally dropped and he's figured out what this game is all about. His last start gap job was breathtaking.
Toydini looked impressive winning at Newcastle with a big weight from a wide draw and with just a kilo over the minimum he looks well placed. His third run in last prep was his best when he brained them in the Carbine Club at this track and distance in the Autumn. Few winners come via the Cameron though.
Ecuador will appreciate some weight relief after lumping 59kg or more at his last three starts. He was the victim of that early headwind at Rosehill last Saturday and I like the fact he's had a run over 1900m to get him fit for this. He's obviously come through the run OK because the stable has decided to back him up seven days later. That may have been the plan all along. (Think Fat Al last year.)
Sacred Falls looked a bit flat last time out but that may have been a result of the tough fresh run with the big weight. The big weight is the concern but he won the Doncaster here last Autumn over this trip.
Streama is so honest and she's coming off weight-for-age form so she looks to have got under the handicappers guard here with just one and a half kilos over the minimum weight. That looks the best form race too with Turnbull hopefuls Royal Descent, Hawkspur and Fawkner chasing her home.
Rekindled Interest's last two second-up runs have been bottlers. Finished third behind Happy Trails and Green Moon in the Feehan Stakes last Spring. His prior second-up run was a second to Metal Bender in the George Ryder (2012) this way of going when beaten a pimple at any old price. His first-up run was an eye-catcher with 61kg. A good roughie for exotics.
The Waller stable has some good prospects today and none more so than Boban. He's always shown ability but has been a bit of a thinker but it appears the penny has finally dropped and he's figured out what this game is all about. His last start gap job was breathtaking.
Toydini looked impressive winning at Newcastle with a big weight from a wide draw and with just a kilo over the minimum he looks well placed. His third run in last prep was his best when he brained them in the Carbine Club at this track and distance in the Autumn. Few winners come via the Cameron though.
Ecuador will appreciate some weight relief after lumping 59kg or more at his last three starts. He was the victim of that early headwind at Rosehill last Saturday and I like the fact he's had a run over 1900m to get him fit for this. He's obviously come through the run OK because the stable has decided to back him up seven days later. That may have been the plan all along. (Think Fat Al last year.)
Sacred Falls looked a bit flat last time out but that may have been a result of the tough fresh run with the big weight. The big weight is the concern but he won the Doncaster here last Autumn over this trip.
Streama is so honest and she's coming off weight-for-age form so she looks to have got under the handicappers guard here with just one and a half kilos over the minimum weight. That looks the best form race too with Turnbull hopefuls Royal Descent, Hawkspur and Fawkner chasing her home.
Rekindled Interest's last two second-up runs have been bottlers. Finished third behind Happy Trails and Green Moon in the Feehan Stakes last Spring. His prior second-up run was a second to Metal Bender in the George Ryder (2012) this way of going when beaten a pimple at any old price. His first-up run was an eye-catcher with 61kg. A good roughie for exotics.
Locky's Selections
10 Boban
16 Ecuador
5 Streama
4 Rekindled Interest
16 Ecuador
5 Streama
4 Rekindled Interest
The Metropolitan (Group 1, 2400m, handicap)
*** Peal Of Bells is an early scratching
Moriarty won the Brisbane Cup fourth run in last prep and has a bit of residual fitness from that Winter Campaign. Chris Waller has maintained all along that this bloke was his stable rep for this race despite the presence of more fancied stablemates in pre-post markets. This is his Grand Final.
* Topweight is a worry though because only two horses have carried more than 55kg to win since 2000. Herculian Prince lumped 55.5kg in 2010 and County Tyrone had 56.5kg when he saluted in 2004. Every other winner carried 54kg or less, as did all the winners going back to 1985 bar Vita Man (55kg, 1999).
At the other end of the scale Prince Cheri looks thrown into this down on the minimum with good winning form behind him. You could make a case that he should be unbeaten this time in and it would take a brave man to say he can't continue to improve. Especially with the stable in such good form.
Julienas is attempting to become the eighth horse in the last 17 runnings of this race to complete the Colin Stephen-Metropolitan double. However the last horse to do it was Railings in 2005. Gai has won this race eight times including two of the last three. Gets a 2.5kg swing on Prince Cheri from the last time they met.
Ibicenco blew most people out of the Quaddie two starts back and his last run wasn't too bad given that he was last to the 400m in that farcically run Naturalism Stakes where Glen Boss controlled the tempo on Mr O'ceirin. He ran past half the field in the straight and his closing sectionals were sound.
Sneak A Peek is beautifully weighted here coming off weight-for-age form and he won't know himself with just the 54kg on his back. He's been ticking along nicely for this race with creditable runs where he has been hitting the line well. Followed a fifth (beaten 4.4L) behind Hawkspur in the Chelmsford with a fourth (beaten 1.7L) behind Moriarty in the Hill Stakes. Meets him 2kg better off tomorrow.
Mourayan looks the pick of the Lloyd Williams runners because he does save his best form for Randwick. He's had five starts here for wins in a Sydney Cup and the Craven Plate on this day last year. He also finished second in this race in 2010. Has two wins and three seconds from eight goes second-up.
Moriarty won the Brisbane Cup fourth run in last prep and has a bit of residual fitness from that Winter Campaign. Chris Waller has maintained all along that this bloke was his stable rep for this race despite the presence of more fancied stablemates in pre-post markets. This is his Grand Final.
* Topweight is a worry though because only two horses have carried more than 55kg to win since 2000. Herculian Prince lumped 55.5kg in 2010 and County Tyrone had 56.5kg when he saluted in 2004. Every other winner carried 54kg or less, as did all the winners going back to 1985 bar Vita Man (55kg, 1999).
At the other end of the scale Prince Cheri looks thrown into this down on the minimum with good winning form behind him. You could make a case that he should be unbeaten this time in and it would take a brave man to say he can't continue to improve. Especially with the stable in such good form.
Julienas is attempting to become the eighth horse in the last 17 runnings of this race to complete the Colin Stephen-Metropolitan double. However the last horse to do it was Railings in 2005. Gai has won this race eight times including two of the last three. Gets a 2.5kg swing on Prince Cheri from the last time they met.
Ibicenco blew most people out of the Quaddie two starts back and his last run wasn't too bad given that he was last to the 400m in that farcically run Naturalism Stakes where Glen Boss controlled the tempo on Mr O'ceirin. He ran past half the field in the straight and his closing sectionals were sound.
Sneak A Peek is beautifully weighted here coming off weight-for-age form and he won't know himself with just the 54kg on his back. He's been ticking along nicely for this race with creditable runs where he has been hitting the line well. Followed a fifth (beaten 4.4L) behind Hawkspur in the Chelmsford with a fourth (beaten 1.7L) behind Moriarty in the Hill Stakes. Meets him 2kg better off tomorrow.
Mourayan looks the pick of the Lloyd Williams runners because he does save his best form for Randwick. He's had five starts here for wins in a Sydney Cup and the Craven Plate on this day last year. He also finished second in this race in 2010. Has two wins and three seconds from eight goes second-up.
Locky's Selections
2 Moriarty
7 Prince Cheri
5 Sneak A Peak
1 Mourayan
7 Prince Cheri
5 Sneak A Peak
1 Mourayan
Flight Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Guelph will be very short here courtesy of her demolition job in the Tea Rose where easily accounted for many of her rivals here today.
Bound For Earth may have felt the tough run first-up but she was still solid and Arabian Gold was a clear second but did get the best run in transit.
Hard to see the others figuring.
Interesting to note however that seven of the last 10 favourites in this race have been beaten including odds-on favourites Victory Vein (in a field of six), Shamekha and Prisoner Of Love. Having said that three of the last five favourites have won including odds-on pop Samantha Miss in 2008.
Bound For Earth may have felt the tough run first-up but she was still solid and Arabian Gold was a clear second but did get the best run in transit.
Hard to see the others figuring.
Interesting to note however that seven of the last 10 favourites in this race have been beaten including odds-on favourites Victory Vein (in a field of six), Shamekha and Prisoner Of Love. Having said that three of the last five favourites have won including odds-on pop Samantha Miss in 2008.
Locky's Selections
1 Guelph
2 Bound For Earth
3 Arabian Gold
2 Bound For Earth
3 Arabian Gold
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the possibility of late, isolated showers. ***
Turnbull Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, set weights plus penalties)
No real surprise that Puissance De Lune tops the market here. He was the only backmarker to make significant ground in the Underwood Stakes when It's A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel poured on the pressure from the 600m after strolling through the first 1200m at slower than 13 seconds to the furlong. Loves the big track here.
Fiorente was breathtaking in the Feehan Stakes and he gives every indication the wide expanses of Flemington will suit him down the ground too. Nash Rawiller comes down to ride, giving up a good book in Sydney to do so.
The Waller duo Hawkspur and Royal Descent should both be there when the whips are cracking. The former gave every indication last start that he is now looking for 2000m+ and at his last two preparations he has strung together three wins on end beginning with his fourth run. Able to take up a position if there is no speed and handles all surfaces.
The mare his stablemate on the other hand can't be faulted either. All three runs this prep have been good. For two strides I thought she was going to win the George Main but Streama had just been rated too well up near the front and Royal Descent just couldn't get over her from back in the field. Was two lengths in front of Hawkspur at the finish on that occasion and meets him the same at relative weights.
Super Cool was just OK in the Feehan. He seemed a bit one-paced and may already be looking for the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup. Not the best suited by the set weights plus penalties conditions either.
He's not the only one in badly at the weights here either - other notables who've copped it from the handicapper include Manighar, Happy Trails and Sangster.
Fawkner looks the best hope for Macedon Lodge. He saves his best form for Flemington and although the 2000m has to be a query his last run in Sydney looked like that of a horse who is looking for further. Lloyd Williams has won three of the last four renewals of this race with Green Moon (2012), Zipping (2010) & Efficient (2009). He scratched two stablemates to get this bloke in the field too.
The best roughie for mine is Dear Demi. Races well here at Headquarters and gets in with no weight. Was less than a length behind It's A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel last start and you'd think those two would be pretty short here. Granted she sat up on a steady tempo and almost nothing made ground but there doesn't appear to breakneck speed on paper here either.
Locky's Selections
Fiorente was breathtaking in the Feehan Stakes and he gives every indication the wide expanses of Flemington will suit him down the ground too. Nash Rawiller comes down to ride, giving up a good book in Sydney to do so.
The Waller duo Hawkspur and Royal Descent should both be there when the whips are cracking. The former gave every indication last start that he is now looking for 2000m+ and at his last two preparations he has strung together three wins on end beginning with his fourth run. Able to take up a position if there is no speed and handles all surfaces.
The mare his stablemate on the other hand can't be faulted either. All three runs this prep have been good. For two strides I thought she was going to win the George Main but Streama had just been rated too well up near the front and Royal Descent just couldn't get over her from back in the field. Was two lengths in front of Hawkspur at the finish on that occasion and meets him the same at relative weights.
Super Cool was just OK in the Feehan. He seemed a bit one-paced and may already be looking for the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup. Not the best suited by the set weights plus penalties conditions either.
He's not the only one in badly at the weights here either - other notables who've copped it from the handicapper include Manighar, Happy Trails and Sangster.
Fawkner looks the best hope for Macedon Lodge. He saves his best form for Flemington and although the 2000m has to be a query his last run in Sydney looked like that of a horse who is looking for further. Lloyd Williams has won three of the last four renewals of this race with Green Moon (2012), Zipping (2010) & Efficient (2009). He scratched two stablemates to get this bloke in the field too.
The best roughie for mine is Dear Demi. Races well here at Headquarters and gets in with no weight. Was less than a length behind It's A Dundeel and Atlantic Jewel last start and you'd think those two would be pretty short here. Granted she sat up on a steady tempo and almost nothing made ground but there doesn't appear to breakneck speed on paper here either.
Locky's Selections
11 Fawkner
16 Royal Descent
5 Hawkspur
6 Fiorente
7 Puissance De Lune
16 Royal Descent
5 Hawkspur
6 Fiorente
7 Puissance De Lune
Other bets
Peron (Flemington Race 10 No. 9) just wins. The Bet of the Day. Locky's "Lock of the Week". I got $3.60.
Politeness (Flemington Race 7 No. 6) couldn't possibly win last start when they crawled through the first half mile in 54.67 sec then sprinted home in the fastest closing sectional of the day. Her effort to come from worse than midfield to be beaten three quarters of a length was full of merit. Flemington should give her plenty of time to wind up and unleash her powerful sprint. $3.00.
Zoustar (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could well be the best sprinting three-year-old in the country given what he did from a horror draw against the pattern in the Golden Rose. Set weights appeals as otherwise he'd be giving Va Pensiero about 6kg and he'd be giving the rest another 6kg at the very least. $1.80 so play him in doubles.
Arinosa (Randwick Race 8 No. 13) trialed well and I think she might just be better than these. $4.50.
Moudre (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) is an each-way pinch. Sea Moon the only danger. $6.00.
Politeness (Flemington Race 7 No. 6) couldn't possibly win last start when they crawled through the first half mile in 54.67 sec then sprinted home in the fastest closing sectional of the day. Her effort to come from worse than midfield to be beaten three quarters of a length was full of merit. Flemington should give her plenty of time to wind up and unleash her powerful sprint. $3.00.
Zoustar (Randwick Race 5 No. 1) could well be the best sprinting three-year-old in the country given what he did from a horror draw against the pattern in the Golden Rose. Set weights appeals as otherwise he'd be giving Va Pensiero about 6kg and he'd be giving the rest another 6kg at the very least. $1.80 so play him in doubles.
Arinosa (Randwick Race 8 No. 13) trialed well and I think she might just be better than these. $4.50.
Moudre (Flemington Race 6 No. 3) is an each-way pinch. Sea Moon the only danger. $6.00.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Morphettville trainer Phillip Stokes has trained eight winners (40%) and four placegetters (60%) from his last 20 runners. Since September 7 he has had a winner every single day he has taken horses to the track. Has the unbeaten Hucklebuck tonight (Moonee Valley Race 1 No. 7) 3rd $1.60 place (unlucky) and Dom Tourneur comes over to take the ride before flying back to Adelaide on Saturday (where Stokes had two winners in Thomason $2.70 win/$1.80 place and Pull No Punches $5.00 win/$1.80 place), only to return on Sunday to ride Eclair Big Bang (Caulfield Race 7 No. 6). 1st $13.00 win/$3.50 place.
Caulfield
Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)
Rebel Dane drew wide and toughed it out for a gutsy win. Gave weight to an older, seasoned horse in Fontelina who got the gun run but still couldn't get past the four-year-old. Last year's Toorak winner Solzhenitsyn looks primed to defend his title and Speediness and Linton were fantastic late.
Locky's Selections
5 Ferlax (7th)
8 Rebel Dane (1st) $6.30 win/$2.60 place
18 Strawberry Boy (13th)
19 Peron (SCR)
8 Rebel Dane (1st) $6.30 win/$2.60 place
18 Strawberry Boy (13th)
19 Peron (SCR)
Moonee Valley
Moir Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Samaready. Wow. Poor old Buffering is runner-up again. Le Bonsir is flying. Some well tried fancies were poor. Bel Sprinter needs to learn some barrier manners, Epaulette didn't appear to handle The Valley and I'm still searching for the sniper on the grassy knoll that picked off Snitzerland.
Locky's Selections
2 Epaulette (7th)
9 Snitzerland (8th)
1 Buffering (2nd) $1.60 place
3 Bel Sprinter (6th)
9 Snitzerland (8th)
1 Buffering (2nd) $1.60 place
3 Bel Sprinter (6th)
Other bets
Cluster (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 8) is having his first go the Melbourne way but he's drawn to get a smother whereas last start he got flushed out a little early. A talented type who is crying out for the trip and jockey Hugh Bowman makes a hit-and-run mission to Moonee Valley for one ride only before flying back to Sydney for a full book on Saturday. $5.00. 3rd. $ place. Loomed up to win but seemed to peak on his run.
Long John (Caulfield Race 7 No. 4) got us the coin last time and I see no reason not to stay solid. Unbeaten at the journey, the stable is back in form, was a dominant two and a half length winner last start with 58.5kg and is drawn to get a cosy run here. A real little professional who hasn't run a bad race to date. $3.50. 3rd. $ place. Lovely Guineas trial. Onwards and upwards.
Long John (Caulfield Race 7 No. 4) got us the coin last time and I see no reason not to stay solid. Unbeaten at the journey, the stable is back in form, was a dominant two and a half length winner last start with 58.5kg and is drawn to get a cosy run here. A real little professional who hasn't run a bad race to date. $3.50. 3rd. $ place. Lovely Guineas trial. Onwards and upwards.
Drago (Rosehill Race 6 No. 4) is another finally getting up to a suitable distance. He was great first-up then just found the 1400m of the Golden Rose a little short second-up but up to 1800m he should be ready to fire. Won over this course and distance three starts back. Granted it was in much weaker company but he lumped a big weight and began slowly only to circle the field and win by four lengths going away in class record time. $3.00. 3rd. Racing very dour and gives the appearance he is already looking for the mile and a half of the Derby. Stick with him.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Go the Pies!
- Pat Melit, every Collingwood game since the dawn of time
- Pat Melit, every Collingwood game since the dawn of time
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