Australian Guineas wash-up / Super Saturday preview

What a crackerjack weekend for racing fans. The Melbourne carnival culminates at Flemington with the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) and Newmarket Handicap (1200m) backed up by seven other races, all of which are either Group or Listed status.

In Sydney we see the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) and three other black type races, as well as exhibition gallops featuring Gai Waterhouse's More Joyous, Melbourne Cup runner-up Fiorente and Carlton House, the first horse owned by Queen Elizabeth II to be permanently trained in Australia.

Across the ditch Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) winner Ocean Park goes around in the Group 1 New Zealand Stakes (2000m) at Ellerslie. The event is scheduled to jump at 3.31pm (AEDT).

In WA there's three Listed races at Ascot tomorrow and another two the following day at Bunbury, while the ACT also has feature racing on Sunday with the highlight being the Listed Black Opal Stakes (1200m).

And on Monday our focus shifts to SA for the running of the Group 2 Adelaide Cup (3200m).

I think when that's all done and dusted I'm going to need a good lie down.

LOOKING BACK

Starting with my tips from last weekend and it was a bit hit-and-miss. I tipped All Too Hard on top so no real surprise that connections scratched him pre-race because he couldn't carry me and win. I could have stopped Phar Lap. In fact I could probably stop a war. My other two selections High Shot and Albrecht were disappointing although the latter was flattened early in the race by eventual winner Ferlax, an incident that saw jockey Stephen Baster suspended.

I tipped two of the first three in the Group 3 Frances Tressady (1400m) but I didn't have the winner (I don't think many people did) and my number one selection ran unplaced, although it was always going to be hard coming from last in a slowly run race. The 33.35 sectional for the final 600m was the fastest of the day for any race run on the circle.

In the only other Melbourne race I dissected I had Launay as my best bet and he duly saluted. $5.50 was on offer when my tips went up.

Meanwhile in Sydney I tipped the quinella (albeit in the wrong order) in the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m). For a few strides I thought I may have produced a masterstroke in tipping Rebel Dane over the well-tried Pierro, but the champ showed all his fighting qualities to hang on in a close finish despite being dead on his feet the last 50 metres. My third pick Mulaazem made all the running out in front before folding faster than Wonder Woman on ironing day.

I made Charlie Boy my selection in the Group 2 Silver Slipper (1100m) and after missing the start he charged home for third on day when not many horses made ground from back in the field. I'll be sticking with him going forward because he attacked the line the way I attack an open bar. My other two selections All The Talk and Kuroshio lost any chance they had when they attacked each other in front. In hindsight the formers effort to hang on for fourth was pretty good.

Lastly in the Group 3 Millie Fox (1300m) my top selection Red Tracer started a short priced favourite and did win, but only just. And as usual, my top three finished first, third and fourth.

In news during the week jockey Jackie Berriman has been rapped over the knuckles and her mount Mybenz has been disqualified after the apprentice hoop was allowed to claim 1.5kg in a non-claiming race at Ballarat last week. Stewards have also launched an inquiry into themselves. Apparently they plan to give themselves a good talking to and have a few stern words with themselves.

In other happenings Brett Prebble has picked up the ride on surprise Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) winner Ferlax. His next start will be the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) tomorrow week. In all likelihood he will bump into boom colt Pierro, who will be without the services of regular rider Nash Rawiller after he was suspended for careless riding at Newcastle on Wednesday.

Finally Doncaster weights have been released and More Joyous will have to set a weight carrying record for a mare if she is to defend her crown. Gai Waterhouse's eight-time Group 1 winning mare has been allocated the topweight of 59.5kg, two kilos more than she carried last year. Other notables to feature at the top end of the weight scale are Manighar (58kg), last year's runner-up Shoot Out (57kg) and star three-year-olds Pierro and All Too Hard (both 56kg), although the latter will not run according to Team Hawkes.

LOOKING FORWARD

Flemington

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

The All Too Hard form line is hard to go past as his two wins against older horses this Autumn have been dominant. Green Moon did enough first-up to show to me that he has come back in good order. He jumps straight to the 2000m second-up but that shouldn't be a concern as he has residual fitness from his Spring campaign. His last three starts at Flemington have resulted in wins in the Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m), Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).

Glass Harmonium went super first-up and has won a Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes at this track, distance and under w-f-a conditions. On that occasion he beat the likes of Southern Speed, Lights of Heaven, Rekindled Interest, Sincero and Efficient.

Mr Moet's two runs in Melbourne have been great and he will appreciate getting into a race with a genuine tempo after being caught flat-footed in his last two outings when the frontrunners sprinted at the end of slowly run races.

Mawingo looked awesome first-up but was a shade disappointing last time out but it may pay to forgive that run. Sometimes stayers can be a little flat second-up, particularly after putting in barnstorming performances first run back from a spell.

The three-year-olds Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool get in well at the weights and have returned in good nick following their Spring campaigns, however since this race was changed to w-f-a in 1979 (excluding the years 1982-86) only two three-year-olds have won. Their names were Dulcify and Saintly. Neither of these two are as good as either of those two but having said that, this is not a vintage Australian Cup field.

NOTE - Eclair Surprise is an early scratching.

Locky's Selections

4 Mr Moet

1 Green Moon

3 Glass Harmonium

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, Handicap)

Current market

Last year Black Caviar brained Hay List, Buffering, Foxwedge and Phelan Ready in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) and that quartet subsequently came out and ran the First Four in the Newmarket. For that reason I will be tipping Moment of Change on top. The fact that six of the last seven winners have carried 56kg or more and five of the last seven winners have paid $5.50 or less also helped me make that decision. I think Barakey is the only danger.

The Queenslander Spirit of Boom was the best run in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) for mine and he handles the Flemington staright although he has never won at the track. Last Spring he ran third in the Group 2 Gilgai Stakes (1200m) and second in the Group 2 Yellowglen (formerly Salinger) Stakes (1200m) at this course and distance.

Three-year-old and fellow Queenslander Better Than Ready gets in with no weight and has won five from eight, including a pointless win over older horses last start when he carried weight and a win in the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes (1200m) at Randwick last October when he set a track record.

Fontelina trialled well and Ortensia may improve back on a straight track, while Luckygray and Shamexpress will have their admirers.

Locky's Selections

2 Moment of Change
5 Barakey
6 Spirit of Boom

Blamey Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, set weights plus penalties)

Current market

This is an interesting race. Puissance de Lune was the name on everyone's lips at the end of the Spring after his demolition job in the Group 2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2500m) on the final day of the carnival. On paper the mile here would appear to be short of his best distance but connections are keen to get a penalty to ensure he is not balloted out of the Cups races later this year. To earn that he needs to win so expect him to be very forward in his preparation.

Maluckyday was the one who had the big, red, flashing light on him last start when he flashed home into fifth behind All Too Hard in the unsuitably short Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m). He was the only runner to make ground from back in the field after they walked early and anyone who watched the race couldn't have missed the run. Hell, even Stevie Wonder saw the run.

Wall Street also has form around the same horse and gets a nine kilo swing in the weights on Dany The Fox who beat him by less than two lengths in the Listed Kilmore Cup (1600m) last start.

Callanish has had two runs back this prep so he should be at peak fitness and ready to add to his imposing record of eight wins and a third from 10 starts.

Willy Jimmy is not totally hopeless either. His last start fourth in the Group 2 Apollo Stakes on a heavy track was full of merit as he came through the bad ground on the inside rather than scouting wide on the turn and he has never won on 11 starts on affected ground.

Locky's Selections

8 Maluckyday
1 Puissance de Lune
7 Wall Street

Kewney Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

Norzita. She just wins. The best filly in the race by a country mile and she meets them at level weights. She's trained by this guy called Bart something-or-other who apparently goes alright on this particular day, having won eight Newmarkets and 13 Australian Cups. Daylight second. The others would want to start running now or they won't be able to see her backside without the Hubble Telescope. Now watch her get beat. Like I said, I could stop a train. 

Locky's Selections

1 Norzita
4 Alzora
10 Petite Diablesse

There is also another Group 2 race, two Group 3 and two Listed events meaning every single event on the nine race card is a black type race. It's no secret I am a huge fan of Fawkner (Race 9 No. 1) and despite being first-up and carrying 60kg he should be too good for this lot. I thought Chase The Rainbow was the only danger and now that he has come out I'm even more confident..

Warwick Farm

Chipping Norton Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current market

It's hard to know what to do here. The traditional lead-up races for this event have been held on bog tracks with all the recent rain so many horses haven't had the hit-outs they would have liked and the form of some runners may be misleading as they just didn't go a yard in the heavy going. Shoot Out won this race last year and won the Group 1 George Main Stakes (1600m) first-up last Spring. Manighar is another one capable of running a big race first-up over a mile and Silent Achiever won the Group 2 Crystal Mile (1600m) second-up last Spring. Her effort first-up in NZ to be beaten a lip over 1400m lumping a 61kg impost was massive, giving the eventual winner 6kg. King Mufhasa is rock hard fit and has the All Too Hard form line with a fifth in the Group 1 Orr Stakes (1400m) when beaten less than a length and a half and a last start third in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m). You could probably make a case for a few others but you can't tip them all.

Locky's Selections

13 Silent Achiever
3 Shoot Out
1 Manighar

Surround Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

Benetta has strung together three impressive victories and whilst this is her biggest test to date she gives every appearance she is up to this level. Dear Demi was superb first-up after her gruelling Spring campaign and did win second-up at 1400m last preparation. Many of the horses who finished down the track behind these two in the Group 2 Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) three weeks ago are going around again (Driefontein, Longport, Jade Marauder, Brave Soul) and it's hard to see them turning the tables, although Longport did win her only previous second-up start and has one start at the Warwick Farm 1400m for one win.

Locky's Selections

3 Benetta
2 Dear Demi
4 Longport

Also on the program is the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup (1300m) and the Listed Wiggle Stakes (1400m). I don't want to bet in the former because eight of the 10 runners are first-up, but I'm happy to back Streama (Race 3 No. 1) in the latter. When I looked at acceptances I had her on top ahead of Steps In Time but was amazed to find bookies had the market the other way so I'm more than happy to step into the $3.50 on offer. She went super first-up against all comers on an unsuitable heavy track and tomorrow, back to her own sex and just three kilos over the minimum weight, she does look well placed.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Trust me Bill. What could possibly go wrong?

- Monica Lewinsky, Oval Office, 1995

Blue Diamond post mortem / Australian Guineas preview

A big weekend ahead with the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) the feature event at Flemington, along with five other Black Type races. 

In Sydney we turn our attention to Rosehill on another meeting doomed to be severly affected by inclement weather. They've had more than 40mm of rain this week and are tipped to receive up to 30mm in the next 24 hours. It's a shame because they have a good card with two Group 2's, a Group 3 and two Listed races.

There's also Listed races in Brisbane and Adelaide so there's plenty of good racing on offer, now let's see if we can find a few winners! 

LOOKING BACK

The Warwick Farm meeting was ruined as a spectacle by constant heavy rain but at least we had the fairytale ending to the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) to put a smile on our dials. The maiden Group 1 success for apprentice jockey Lauren Stojakovic and trainer Daniel Clarken was great to see, if only to watch the reaction of her father as she crossed the line on unbeaten filly Miracles of Life.

For a minute there I thought he had either backed Guelph or was having some kind of seizure.

I almost tipped you into the trifecta too with my selections running first (Miracles of Life), third (Godiva Rock) and fourth (Gregers). Oh well, close, but no cigar. It was a similar story in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) with All Too Hard, King Mufhasa and Green Moon running, you guessed it, 1-2-4. D'oh! In the only other Group 1, the Oakleigh Plate (1100m), I wasn't quite as successful, with one selection scratched at the barrier (Barakey), another who should have been scratched at the barrier before going like a busted (Shamal Wind) and a third who was lucky to beat home the ambulance (Ortensia).

In other news during the week Newmarket Handicap weights were released with dual Group 1 winning WA gelding Luckygray allocated topweight of 58kg. Current favourite Moment of Change and Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) failures Ortensia and Woorim have been allocated 56.5kg. Group 1 winners Barakey and Atomic Force are next in line with 56kg, with the former cleared for a start after completing a special gallop in front of stewards at Caulfield on Wednesday following his scratching at the barriers last weekend.

At the other end of the weight scale talented three-year-old Better Than Ready gets in with just 50.5kg. Six of the last seven winners have carried 56kg or more, and five of the last seven have paid $5.50 or less, so the stats would appear to point to Moment of Change.

Meanwhile quick thinking by jockey Kathy O'Hara has almost certainly saved fellow hoop Hugh Bowman from serious injury after he was dislodged from filly Inflatable Miss when she veered out suddenly during the finish of Race 3 at Goulburn on Thursday. Sydney's premiership leading jockey looked certain to be struck by O'Hara's mount before a brilliant, split-second reaction saw her able to steer clear of a grateful Bowman.

Lastly star sprinter Hay List (below) remains on track to resume in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) in two weeks time after breezing through a track gallop at Gosford on Wednesday.

LOOKING FORWARD

Flemington

Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

All Too Hard looks the obvious one here and has come up at very skinny odds after back-to-back Group 1 victories over the older horses. Some have pointed to the seven day back-up as a concern but this was the plan mapped out from the start and the Hawkes team do have a habit of producing horses to win on the quick back-up. He'll also have to overcome a wide gate but he does look to have a bit on this lot so I'm not going to make the mistake of tipping against him as I did last time just because of the odds-on quote. But there are many other interesting runners in this race.

The Mick Price trained Ajeeb has won two from three and looked dominant in his last start win at Sandown, however this is his biggest test to date.

I tipped High Shot as a horse to follow last time out and he was disappointing but his barnstorming win on debut at his previous start was the sort of performance you only see from serious animals so it may pay to forgive that run. Big race jockey Craig Williams takes the ride.

Phillipi stamped himself as one to watch last Spring winning his first three starts, culminating in a Listed race win at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes Day. His first-up effort a fortnight ago in the Group 3 C S Hayes Stakes (1400m) was sound and that is a traditional lead-up race for this event.

On paper Albrecht's last start effort in the same race would appear below average but he was trying to make ground from well back in a race that was run at a farcically slow tempo so his effort to break 33 seconds for the final 600m was outstanding.

Bass Strait was another to run on well from worse than midfield in the same event so if he gets some pace on tomorrow he could figure in the finish. Sheer Talent, Force Command and Hosting ran the trifecta in that race but have drawn the carpark in tomorrow's feature which will make it hard for them.

Hvasstan, You're So Good and Red Inca have also shown ability and will have their admirers.

Locky's Selections

1 All Too Hard
15 High Shot
2 Albrecht

Frances Tressady Stakes (Group 3, 1400m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

Current market

As I have said a few times previously the topweights do tend to have an advantage in these set weights plus penalties races because they meet the lightly weighted horses much better off than they would if the race were a handicap event. The Peter Moody trained mare There's Only One has won four from five at this distance and three from four second up and is coming off a good first up win over Loveyamadly who'll go around a short priced favourite in an earlier race so that should give us some sort of guide to the strength of the formline.

Koonoomoo took on open company at Group 1 level last week and I'm always wary of good mares dropping back in grade to compete against their own sex. I tipped her as one to follow a few weeks back when she looked to have the race won before being collared on the line to finish third but was only beaten a short head by a nose.

Jolie Blonde (first) and Sheila's Star (third) are in the same boat having both run well in the Listed Hareeba Stakes (1200m) at the Mornington metro meeting on February 13. Jolie Blonde has never won beyond 1200m so that may be a concern and Sheila's Star does meet her two kilos better off and was beaten less than a length.

Bonnie Mac was disappointing last start but when interviewed earlier this week trainer Mike Moroney said the step-up to 1400m may be what she is looking for at this stage of her preparation.

Locky's Selections

1 There's Only One
2 Koonoomoo
5 Sheila's Star

There are four Listed races on the program too, including the TAB Stakes (1400m). Launay has been set for this race and looks a good prospect with four wins from six starts at Flemington and an imposing second-up record (three wins from five starts). He's currently around $5.50 with most of the corporate bookmakers. His narrow first-up second showed he has come back fit and well.

Rosehill

Hobartville Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

All eyes will be on boom colt Pierro as he resumes from a spell. In fact six horses in this field of 11 are first-up, and with the track currently rated a Heavy 8 and more rain forecast this may be a concern for all of them. Last weekend's meeting at Warwick Farm was run in similar conditions and horses with race fitness on their side dominated.

Rebel Dane looks the obvious threat. His effort to come from last in a slowly run race and still win the Group 2 Royal Sovereign Stakes (1200m) two weeks ago was outstanding.

Victorian visitor Mulaazem is another with residual fitness having had the three runs back, winning his last two. Last time out he beat Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool who subsequently ran the quinella in last weekend's Group 2 Autumn Classic (1800m), and also ran the quinella in the Group 1 VRC Derby (2500m) at Flemington during the Spring Carnival.

Proisir and It's A Dundeel have trialled well in the lead-up to this and both are unbeaten first-up.

Sacred Falls is having his second start for the Waller stable after coming to Australia with big wraps following six wins from as many starts in New Zealand. On face value he was disappointing last start but he may benefit from a faster tempo tomorrow.

Locky's Selections

7 Rebel Dane
1 Pierro
9 Mulaazem

Silver Slipper Stakes (Group 2, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights plus penalties)

Current market

Charlie Boy is likely to start favourite in an open betting race and it's no secret Gerald Ryan has a big opinion of this colt. He is just one of four horses going into this race unbeaten, including Never Can Tell, Romantic Moon and Whiskey Allround. Trainer Tony Gollan has brought the latter down from Queensland for this race so obviously he thinks the gelding can be competitive. He sure as hell didn't make the trip south for the weather.

Kuroshio's form is hard to fault with two wins from four starts. His other two runs were a third behind current Golden Slipper first and second favourites Villa Verde and Overreach in the Listed Debutants Stakes (1000m) and a narrow second in the Listed Blue Diamond Preview  - Colts & Geldings (1000m).

Gary Portelli's All The Talk has been specked in early markets ($10 into $8.50), the Waterhouse trained Sweet Idea was beaten a whisker in the Magic Millions (1200m) and Peter Moody's Brilliant Bisc boasts a win over the highly talented Guelph so there are plenty you could make a case for.

Locky's Selections

7 Charlie Boy
1 Kuroshio
5 All The Talk

Millie Fox Stakes (Group 3, 1300m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

Current market

Red Tracer is looking for back-to-back wins in this event and with every further drop of rain her chances are enhanced. She's won four from four on heavy and one out of one on slow going. In short, she goes better in the wet than Ian Thorpe. She'll be my top pick easily but I won't be diving into the even money that is currently on offer.

Lady's Angel is another with a good record on heavy going (five starts for three wins and two seconds) and she was beaten just over a length in the Group 1 Galaxy (1100m) against open company this time last year.

Driefontein hasn't been far away in three runs back this time in and has race fitness on her side. That could be a major factor because by the time we get to Race 7 I think the track may be deteriorating faster than a Chennai pitch.

I'm certain that punters will once again tumble into Secret Admirer after her good trial but she's becoming a bit of a money muncher. The last time she tasted success I'm sure the race was broadcast in black and white.

Happy to risk the rest.

Locky's Selections

2 Red Tracer
4 Lady's Angel
6 Driefontein

A couple of Listed races on the program too, and I'll be interested to see how Charge Account performs in the Fireball Quality (1100m) after I made him a horse to follow back in early February and he duly saluted, albeit at skinny odds.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

So you're looking for a quiet, secluded place to camp? I think I may be able to help.
- Ivan Milat, Belanglo State Forest, 1992

Blue Diamond Preview

I return following a two week absence due to an overseas trip and find myself just in time for what is the best weekend of racing to date this calendar year.

We have three Group 1 races from Caulfield. The two-year-olds do battle for the second richest juvenile prize of the year in the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m), the sprinters lock horns in the time honoured Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and the weight-for-agers tackle the Futurity Stakes (1400m). There are an additional four Group races on the program including important lead up races to the Australian Guineas and Australian Cup.

The Warwick Farm meeting is highlighted by the running of the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m) and two other black type races. All in all it shapes as a cracking weekend of racing.

I'll also look back on last week, including that fabulous return by Black Caviar. A race I could not watch live anywhere despite being in the gambling capital of the world, Las Vegas. We had to live stream it through a mobile phone in our hotel room. So for everyone else who didn't get to see it either, here it is again.

LOOKING BACK

I picked a good weekend to be away as it was a bleak day for punters at Flemington last Saturday. Just two of the nine favourites won on the day and one of them was unbackable at $1.10. The average winning price for the day was $10 and apart from Black Caviar, no winner in the last six races paid less than $13.

I won't say too much on Black Caviar as by this stage it has all been said, but I will say this. I never thought I'd see Special's 1988 record of 55.5 seconds for the Flemington 1000m ever be broken, given that the track has since been redeveloped and we just don't see races run on a genuinely rock-hard, fast track anymore.

In other news boom horse Puissance de Lune is on track for a tilt at next month's Group 2 Blamey Stakes (1600m) at Flemington, after pulling up well following a jump-out at Ballarat yesterday (below).

Hay List won a barrier trial at Randwick on Monday and will trial again at Warwick Farm next week as trainer John McNair aims towards a comeback in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1000m) at Warwick Farm late next month.

Meanwhile Jockey Danny Nikolic has had his two-year disqualification reduced to a one-year disqualification followed by a one-year suspension. The penalty related to threats he made to Racing Victoria chief steward Terry Bailey.

Lastly hoops Michelle Payne, Michael Walker and Anthony Darmanin have all been fined $1000 after pleading guilty to betting charges resulting from an audit of corporate bookmakers accounts.

LOOKING FORWARD

Caulfield

Blue Diamond Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

Thermal Current and Casquets are early scratchings and this is bad news for many because I know of quite a few people who were keen on the former.

If you look at the overall and sectional times from the Previews and the Preludes than the girls have got lengths on the boys and should run top three. But two-year-old races can throw up surprises, there's been many a good juvenile that looked brilliant up to 1100m but couldn't run 1200m. So if you like one of the boys then stick to your guns. 

Should we read anything into the fact that Darley has chosen not to accept with fully qualified colt Kuroshio and instead stick with the three fillies? And what about the fresh horses on the scene? Crack a Roadie was scratched from Mornington after getting cast in his stall but he has had two starts for a win and a second to current Golden Slipper second favourite Villa Verde. Gregers looked good in winning her only start at Moonee Valley, and it may pay to note that the next four horses over the line that night (Annenberg, Casquets, Essie's Pride & Politeness) subsequently ran the First Four in the Listed Talindert Stakes (1100m) at Flemington last week. The bloke that will ride her has won this race a few times too.

The obvious three are Miracles of Life, Guelph & Metastasio. They've had perfect preparations and have hardly put a foot wrong with eight starts between them for seven wins, with the only defeat being Guelph's second on debut back in October. The Darley pair will need luck from awkward draws while Miracles of Life should get the gun run from barrier one, which has me slightly leaning her way.

Dissident can't be overlooked as the Colts & Geldings Preview has produced three of the last five winners (Reaan, Reward for Effort & Sepoy) and The Bowler and Godiva Rock could be the ones to fly in under the radar having only had the one start.

Selections

14 Gregers

10 Miracles of Life

15 Godiva Rock

Oakleigh Plate (Group 1, 1100m, Handicap)

Current market

Boom Perth gelding Barakey makes his first appearance on the eastern seaboard and is attempting to make it 12 wins from as many starts and back-to-back Group 1's after victory in the Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) at Ascot (WA) in late November. Shamal Wind is also unbeaten, granted in a lower grade, but she's well in at the weights with just 50.5kg and her slashing win down the straight during the Flemington Carnival at just her second start stamped her as a galloper on an upward spiral. Three-year-olds have always been competitive in this race.

Queensland has launched an invasion with Woorim back to defend his crown and last year's third placegetter Facile Tigre returning for another crack. He goes into the race first up just like last year, where he looked all over the winner before being collared by Woorim and Elite Falls right on the line. Adebisi is flying with three wins from his last four and Spirit of Boom was only half a length behind Barakey in the Winterbottom and meets him a kilo better off.

Ortensia returns to the Australian racetrack after a successful raid in England and cannot be dismissed despite the big weight. In fact there are plenty you could make a case for including in your exotics including Sea Lord, Lone Rock, Mrs Onassis and Undeniably. But the problem with picking a top three is that I am only allowed three.

Selections

14 Shamal Wind

3 Barakey

1 Ortensia

Futurity Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

All Too Hard looks the obvious selection here on paper but I'm not sure I want to be jumping out of a window to take $1.60-$1.70, which is what's likely to be offered. Green Moon ran a cracking race first up last Spring when a closing fifth behind Sincero in the Group 2 Memsie Stakes, which is also a Group 2 1400m w-f-a race at this circuit. He will be a lot further forward in his preparation this time around seeing the plan is to go straight from this into the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) in a fortnight, whereas last Spring his long term goal was the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).

Depending on what they elect to do with Koonoomoo and, to a lesser extent, Shanghai Warrior and Glass Harmonium, King Mufhasa may get a soft lead. They've had a hot, dry week in Melbourne which can sometimes produce a dynamite leaders track at Caulfield, so watch the pattern of early races.

Selections

1 Green Moon

10 All Too Hard

2 King Mufhasa

Peter Young (formerly St. George) Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)

Current market

A major lead-up race for many of the hopefuls headed towards the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m) in two weeks time. With All to Hard likely to start a short odds-on favourite later in the day, Mawingo and Mr Moet, the two unlucky runners who chased him home last start (see below) look likely to fight this out. The rest look well below this pair in terms of class although it would not surprise me to see Foreteller, Eclair Surprise or Prairie Star run a cheeky race.

Selections

3 Mawingo
1 Mr Moet
6 Eclair Surprise

There are three other black type races on the program, the most interesting of which appears to be the Group 2 Autumn Classic (1800m) where Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool resume their rivalry. This duo ran the quinella in last year's VRC Derby and showed they have returned well with a good second and third respectively when resuming a fortnight ago in the Group 2 Autumn Stakes (1400m).

Warwick Farm

Apollo Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, w-f-a)

In making selections for Warwick Farm I'm going to lean heavily towards the horses with noted wet track form because Sydney is expecting decent falls both tonight and tomorrow, according to the Channel 4 weatherman.

In fact I'll be interested to see if Pierro's scheduled track gallop after Race 1 goes ahead if the track is severely affected.

1400m races at Warwick Farm can be tricky affairs. It's basically a straight run to the one and only bend and then a sprint home. The pace can be muddling as no-one is in any hurry to find the fence with only one turn to negotiate, and sometimes it seems as if every jockey is looking over his shoulder saying "Do you want to lead? I don't want to lead."

With that in mind and the lack of any natural speed in the race then Glencadam Gold could find himself getting away with some cheap sectionals and they may find him hard to run down, because coming from the Waterhouse yard you just know he'll be as tough as old boots. Seems crazy to be entertaining a Caulfield/Melbourne Cups horse first up in a w-f-a sprint but there you have it.

Chris Waller has no fewer than six of the 13 runners. Bookies have assessed his best chances as Shoot Out and Tougher than Ever. The former goes well fresh and handles the sting out of the ground. For a horse who in human terms is approaching mandatory retirement age Danleigh went super first up. He has five wins second up and five wins on slow going to his name and has been specked in early betting. Albert the Fat is another who has good wet track and second up form, and he was doing his best work late when resuming in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) two weeks ago.

Laser Hawk boasts arguably some of the best form in Australia. His six career starts have yielded four wins including victory in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) over subsequent Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and NZ Derby and Crystal Mile winner Silent Achiever. His only two defeats were a close up third in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) and a one and a half length third in the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m). The former was on a slow track when he was just a neck and half a neck behind Mosheen and Said Com.

Current market

Selections

5 Laser Hawk
4 Glencadam Gold
1 Shoot Out

There are other good races on the program, with star mare Streama to resume in the Group 3 Southern Cross (1200m) and the fillies and mares set to slug it out in the Listed Triscay Stakes (1200m), but with the predicted inclement weather and the embarrassment of riches on offer in Melbourne I will be confining most of my punting to Caulfield.

And don't forget that Cox Plate hero Ocean Park resumes in NZ tomorrow in the Group 1 Haunui Farm Classic (1600m) at Otaki. The race is at 2.26pm (AEDT). He's not really a betting proposition but I'm keen to see how he has come back ahead of his planned international campaign.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I offer no defence Your Worship. I don't have a leg to stand on.
- Oscar Pistorious, Pretoria Magistrates Court, 20 February 2013

Feb 1-2 wrap / Orr Stakes preview

This week sees the first Group 1 of the New Year in Australia with the running of the weight-for-age C.F.Orr Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield. The action doesn't stop there with the babies again stepping out in the Blue Diamond Preludes with Melbourne's feature event for two-year-old's just a fortnight away. Throw in the Group 2 weight-for-age Expressway Stakes (1200m) at Warwick Farm and we are in for a bumper weekend's racing.

There's also been plenty to digest and dissect in the last seven days both on and off the track so without further ado let's look at all that is now, all that is gone and all that's to come and everything under the sun. (Apologies to Pink Floyd)

LOOKING BACK

We've been focusing on the juveniles of late and that will continue this week with the Blue Diamond just a fortnight away and the Group 1 Golden Slipper (1200m) at Rosehill to be run in two months time. 

Metastasio looked good in winning the Listed Chairman's Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield last weekend and seemed to have a bit in reserve. She's still not nominated for the race, but like current favourite Miracles of Life, connections are likely to pay the late entry fee. If the latter does run, apprentice Lauren Stojakovic will retain the ride.

Aussieslovesport has been a costly conveyance getting beaten again at a relatively short price in the two-year-old race in Sydney, but he missed the start and seemed to labour a bit on the Heavy 10 so maybe we can't sack him just yet. In fact I think the form coming out of that meeting will be questionable due to the track condition. Time will tell.

Last week I identified David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn as guys to watch because of their impressive strike rates and they continued their respective good runs with victory by Gregers in the 1000m juvenile race at Moonee Valley on Friday night. Well tried first starters Casquets, Politeness and Berrichon didn't figure in the finish.

In other news Gai Waterhouse's filly Overreach will bypass the Blue Diamond. She was on the sixth line of betting at $21. In her only start to date she ran second to current Golden Slipper favourite Villa Verde in the Debutantes Stakes. Fourth favourite Thermal Current was nominated for the Prelude this weekend but did not accept with connections hoping his current prizemoney will be enough to see him make the final field. Crack a Roadie will have his final hit-out at Mornington on Wednesday in the Inglis Premier (1200m). He is currently on the fifth line of betting at $13. The full market can be found here.

Black Caviar breezed through her exhibition gallop at Caulfield and looks primed for the Group 1 Lightning Stakes (1000m) at Flemington next weekend, while Hay List could resume as early as March 16 in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes (1100m) at Warwick Farm.

Paul Beshara has abandoned plans to take Group 1 Emirates Stakes (1600m) winner Happy Trails to Dubai for an assault on the Dubai Duty Free on World Cup night. The Adelaide trainer says the long trip and stringent quarantine requirements make the exercise too difficult, and the five-year-old gelding will instead campaign in Sydney with his major goals being the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) and Doncaster Handicap (1600m).

Lastly, in breeding news a full brother to the world's top rated galloper Frankel (Galileo-Kind) has been born at Banstead Manor Stud. Recently retired, Frankel will serve his first mares at the same Newmarket stud next week. Meanwhile three-time Group 1 Breeder's Cup Mile winner Goldikova has given birth to her first foal, a colt, also by Galileo.

LOOKING FORWARD

CAULFIELD

Orr Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Obviously most interest will focus on the three-year-old All Too Hard, having his first start back following a big Spring Carnival where he claimed the Caulfield Guineas (below) and was a courageous second in the Cox Plate. He's now owned by Vinery Stud and is being aimed at the Australian Guineas to enhance his breeding prospects, but with that in mind they wouldn't want him to be losing many races so you'd think he'd be pretty forward in his preparation. The Hawkes stable does have a habit of producing horses to win fresh too. The obvious danger is the Kiwi King Mufhasa who, on paper, should get a soft lead although La Remas and Callanish will probably push forward. The latter is above average having won all eight of his career starts including three first-up and two at this distance and looked very forward in winning a recent trial. Pinwheel has race fitness on his side and was unlucky last time out.

Selections

9 All Too Hard
4 Pinwheel
6 Callanish

Autumn Stakes (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights plus penalties)

High Shot could be one out of the box, judging by his debut win at Cranbourne last start. It had to be seen to be believed. I can't wait to see him over more ground too, because being by High Chapparal (So You Think, Shoot Out, Monaco Consul) out of a Sir Tristam mare you'd think he'd stay all day. The obvious danger is Darley's Knoydart and it may pay to forgive his last run. Several VRC Derby runners are resuming such as Fiveandahalfstar (1st), Supercool (2nd) and Hvasstan (4th) but logic suggests they have bigger fish to fry further down the track and will need the hit out. Red Inca and Mulaazem have been tried in early markets.

Selections

10 High Shot
8 Knoydart
6 Mulaazem

Blue Diamond Prelude - Colts & Geldings (Group 3, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights) 

Dissident and Kuroshio look like they will battle it out for favourtism the way they battled out the finish in the Preview a fortnight ago. The former is attempting to emulate the feats of Sepoy (2001) and Bel Espirit (2002) who took the trifecta of Preview/Prelude/Blue Diamond and I'm tipping him because he looked stronger on the line and gives the impression the extra 100m will suit. He'll need to improve his racing manners though as he nearly threw it away last time out when he wanted to weave all over the place in the straight like a bloke who's had more drugs than an Essendon player competing in the Tour de France. The Bowler is an interesting runner too. He's been specked in Blue Diamond betting and is the only runner yet to race who is under $31 in the market. Gai Waterhouse's unbeaten colt Marseille Roulette can't be dismissed.

Selections

4 Dissident
7 The Bowler
3 Kuroshio

Blue Diamond Prelude - Fillies (Group 3, 1100m, 2-y-o set weights)

The Snowden trained Guelph will likely start a very short priced favourite after her impressive recent win in Sydney. She was ridden like a good thing, they kept her wide and out of trouble to ensure she had a clean run, and even after covering ground without cover she rounded them up quickly in the straight even though she wasn't ridden out to the line. Kerrin McEvoy will take the ride while Craig Williams picks up the ride on stablemate Montsegur whom McEvoy guided into sixth place behind Miracles of Life in the Preview two weeks ago. I'm not reading too much into that though, as I think it was the stable's decision and not the hoops. Kerrin just rides the horses he's told to ride. Peter Moody's filly Quest for Peace (not to be confused with the international who contested last year's Melbourne Cup) is the only other runner under double figures. More than Ameira is well bred, by hugely successful sire of juveniles More Than Ready out of the very good race mare Afraah who won six of her first eight race starts from 1200m to 2000m, including the 2005 Group 3 Frank Packer Plate during the Sydney Autumn Carnival.

Selections

1 Guelph
3 Quest for Peace
8 More than Ameira

Others

Koonoomoo (Race 9 #1) was hitting the line strongly last start when fifth in the Group 2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago. This is a significant drop in class and returning to a race restricted to mares she does looks well in this at the set weights plus penalties with just three kilos over the minimum.

WARWICK FARM

Expressway Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, w-f-a)

Happy Galaxy dominates early betting after stringing together three successive victories. Former NZer Tougher Than Ever makes his debut for the Waller stable and has two wins and a placing from three goes at the trip. Danleigh has been given a day pass from the Old Peoples Home to allow him to compete, but unfortunately if he wins he won't be able to hang around for the presentation because he won't get back in time to receive his meds and watch Wheel of Fortune. 

Centennial Park goes well fresh but hasn't won at this track in six attempts. Judging by his trial Albert the Fat will need the run and Skytrain isn't hopeless. If you are looking for a roughie for your exotics Willy Jimmy is trained on course and has two wins and a placing from five starts here. He recently showed that despite a 14 month layoff he hasn't lost his zest for racing with a slashing run first-up in the Listed Takeover Target Stakes (1200m) at Gosford in early January. Lumping the topweight of 59kg he was last to the turn before storming home to finish fourth beaten just over two lengths. He conceded the three placegetters four to five kilos. 

Selections

10 Happy Galaxy
9 Tougher Than Ever
5 Willy Jimmy

Others

Charge Account (Race 5 #11) isn't really a betting proposition as he is likely to start around $1.70 but I'm keen to see how he performs because his effortless seven length win last time out stamped him as a potential Black Type winner in the making.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

It's such a lovely day. Why don't we take the convertible and leave the roof down?

- John F. Kennedy, Dallas, 22 November 1963

Australia Day wrap / Feb 1-2 preview

Some impressive performances last week and a lot of important news emerging throughout this week, both on the track and off.

We have a combination of races, trials and rulings to discuss as well as an above average weekend of racing to dissect so let's dive right in...

LOOKING BACK

Most focus was on the two-year-olds last weekend and rightly so with Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) at Caulfield just three weeks away. Miracles of Life was dominant in the fillies division of the Blue Diamond Preview and the girls went 0.72 seconds faster than the boys with a faster closing sectional for the final 600m off the back of a faster opening 400m. So the question now is will connections pay the late entry fee? She isn't nominated but still heads bookies markets and it's not hard to see why after seeing the way she won.

Thermal Current was the run of the race for mine in the colts & geldings edition after running into more dead ends than a learner driver. The Moody trained gallopoer had every right to throw up the white flag but he kept attacking the line the way I attack an open bar. His stablemate Dissident also looked good in winning despite being a bit wayward in the straight and you would think he will improve with race experience.

Sea Lord kept his unbeaten record at Moonee Valley in tact with victory in the below-par Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m) on Friday. That's four from four now at the tight, turning circuit for the gelding.

Lastly, Shadows in the Sun broke through for his first win in nearly two years when victorious in the Listed Australia Day Cup (2400m) at Warwick Farm. His owners may have been forgiven for thinking this guy was a bit camera shy with his last victory coming in May 2011 in the Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m) at Morphettville.

Meanwhile several of our topline sprinters are stepping out this week in the lead up to the big sprint races in Melbourne.

On Tuesday unbeaten Perth galloper Barakey breezed through a Belmont trial and Hay List showed he's on track for his first start since March last year with an exhibition gallop at Wyong yesterday.

Black Caviar will have her own hit-out between races three and four at Caulfield tomorrow.

In other news trainer Con Karakatsanis (Black Piranha, Howmuchdoyouloveme) has vowed to fight a nine month ban handed down for charges stemming from a raid on his stables on Derby Day last November. It is alleged stewards interrupted an attempt to stomach-tube Howmuchdoyouloveme ahead of a Group 2 sprint that afternoon. His father Tony, a registered stablehand, received a two year penalty for the same incident and has also said he will appeal the decision.

LOOKING FORWARD

Proceedings kick-off tonight at Moonee Valley and again all eyes will be on the two-year-olds with some Blue Diamond hopefuls stepping out for the first time in the Sportingbet Plate (1000m). The Robert Smerdon trained debutante Politeness will likely start an odd-on favourite and is currently an $11 chance for the two-year-old feature, the only horse under $26 in the market who is yet to race. Mark Kavanagh also has an interesting first starter in Casquets. He's currently second pick and a $26 chance in the Group 1. The full market can be found here.

The Moody trained Kona Breeze has been scratched from tonight's event and will instead contest tomorrow's Listed Chairman's Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield, where he will again bump into last start conqueror Metastasio. The Snowden trained filly looked super impressive when winning on debut at Flemington a fortnight ago and appears to have been saved for this race after also being nominated last weekend. David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn combine on I Am Titanium who went under narrowly when well tried at his only start. Hayes and Dunn have the best strike rates of any trainer and jockey respectively in the Victorian Top 10.

Racing in Queensland and NSW will obviously take place on rain affected tracks in the aftermath of the big wet experienced in the wake of ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald. Both venues anticipate some more rain in the next 24 hours so hold off on making your selections until the state of the track is finalised.

If racing does go ahead as anticipated then punters at Doomben may benefit from a Bart Cummings-like preparation as the 10 race card is sure to be a test of their staying potential. The feature event on the card is the Listed Nudgee Quality (1200m).

Rosehill sees the return of some above average gallopers with the Sydney carnival not too far away. Said Com resumes for Chris Waller in Race 5 and Race 8 sees the resumption of high class three-year-olds Better Than Ready, Ichihara and Raceway. The latter is having his first start since a gelding operation. Better Than Ready is being aimed at the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield in three weeks time.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

This was not how I planned on spending the Easter long weekend

- Jesus of Nazareth, Calvary Hill, 33 A.D.

Happy New Year 2013

Well after a long break to recover from my PTSD (Posttraumatic Spring Disorder) I am back again just in time for the Australia Day long weekend and a welcome return to some quality racing.

Action kicks off on Friday night at Moonee Valley with the Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m) at w-f-a. Saturday sees the Blue Diamond Previews (1000m) at Caulfield headline a raceday that features two other Listed races. In Sydney they head to Warwick Farm for the Listed Australia Day Cup (2400m) and in Queensland the Sunshine Coast has a rare Saturday Metro TAB meeting with the feature being the Listed Sunshine Coast Cup (1400m).

You can find a full list of upcoming feature races here.

But the red light is on and the starting signal has been given so it's time for us to look at the weeks ahead.

HORSES TO FOLLOW

Black Caviar

Well duh. It's a no brainer, but not for the reasons you'd expect. All the questions have been answered. She's unbeaten. She's done it at home and abroad. She's done it at handicap level and at w-f-a, right handed and left handed. So why is she a horse to follow? Because I want to see how she has recovered from that gruelling trip and race at Ascot. Because I want to see how many more times they go to the well and risk that unbeaten record with a mare who's rising seven. Because I want to see if any of the brash young upstarts progressing through the ranks can get her out of her comfort zone. And lastly, simply because I want to. Nothing draws attention to a sport like a superstar. It's like a train wreck, you know how it's going to end but you just can't look the other way.

The Others

As I've just mentioned we have some other handy sprinters around and it will be interesting to see who picks up the scraps left behind by the mighty mare. Hay List is back again and from all reports is bigger and stronger than ever, which is frightening because he already looked like he should be pulling a wagon full of beer barrels. And what of the unbeaten Perth gelding Barakey? Those in the know in WA say the times he's been running in winning are the equal of the likes of former star sprinters from the West like Miss Andretti and Scenic Blast. Then there is Sea Siren. Has she recovered from her Hong Kong disappointment? If she has she will be up to her eyeballs in anything she contests, having claimed three Group 1's already (BTC Cup, Doomben 10,000 & Manikato Stakes) in just 11 career starts. Buffering can't be forgotten either. The perennial bridesmaid deserves to break through for a Group 1 after no less than six placings at the highest level in the last 14 months. He was edged out in both the Doomben 10,000 (Sea Siren) and Stradbroke (Mid Summer Music) after an injury interrupted prep, he was pipped in the Newmarket by Hay List and led home the chasers behind Black Caviar in the Lightning and the Patinack. Throw in a third to Foxwedge and Hay List in the William Reid and surely he must be due. But they'll have their work cut out for them judging by Black Caviar's jump-out at Sandown earlier this week.

3-y-o's

Pierro and All Too Hard were head and shoulders above the rest of the crop and proved it with a stirring finish in the Caulfield Guineas and then backed it up with super runs in the Cox Plate. But what sort of a toll will that take on a young horse? We all saw what happened last year with Helmet and Manawanui. They never recaptured their form upon resuming in the Autumn, and only time will tell if these guys can avoid the same fate. I'm not saying they can't, I'm just saying I won't be jumping out of any windows to take skinny prices before I've seen they've come back fit and healthy.

Stayers

Puissance De Lune was the name on everyones lips after his slashing win in the Queen Elizabeth on the final day of the Flemington Carnival. But bookmakers putting him up a $7 favourite for this year's Cup already? You have got to be having a lend of me. A day is a long time in racing, a year is an eternity. Again, not bagging the animal, he is undeniably talented but he has to reproduce that form, then has to maintain that form, has to stay sound and has to get into the race with a winnable weight. And even if he does you'll probably get something like that price next November without the risk because the money will come for the imports as it always does. Sit on your hands!

THIS WEEKEND

The horse to watch will be Miracles of Life in the fillies division of the Blue Diamond Preview. She isn't nominated for the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes but nonetheless is currently the $7 favourite for the feature. She made it two wins from as many starts with a dynamic nine length victory last time out and 29-year-old apprentice Lauren Stojakovic retains the ride despite a host of senior Melbourne riders throwing their hats in the ring.

In the same race Gai Waterhouse has Swing Vote after her impressive win on debut at Warwick Farm on January 5, and Darley has nominated boom filly Montsegur after she romped home on Boxing Day at Caulfield. 

That stable has also nominated Kuroshio for the colts and geldings division where Peter Moody saddles up last start Flemington runner-up Thermal Current and first starter Dissident.

Meanwhile Sam Kavanagh has nominated debutant Mon Gateau and says the gelding has shown above-average ability including an impressive trial win against older horses.

Friday night's Australia Stakes has attracted just eight acceptors and with the early scratching of Skytrain there will now be no third dividend. No surprise really with all the A-grade sprinters preparing for races like the Lightning, Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket. Pinwheel heads the field.

Lastly we have the Australia Day Cup at Warwick Farm on Saturday aka the Dad's Army Stakes featuring the likes of Fiumicino, Ironstein, Macedonian, Tullamore and Reuben Percival - all of whom are nearly old enough to vote.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I really enjoy gardening. Sometimes I'll still be out there at 3am in the morning, still diggin' away...

- Fred West, Gloucester, 1994