Listed Ipswich Cup Day - 18.06.2016

The Winter Carnival heads west this weekend with the running of the time honoured Listed Ipswich Cup.

It hasn't been a happy punting ground for me over the years but let's see if this year I can defy the pattern. 

Who's Hot? 

I'm looking to the west this weekend and trainer Justin Warwick and his daughter jockey Lucy Warwick bagged four winners on a memorable day last Saturday at Belmont. 

The return to the same track tomorrow to combine on The Flirt (Race 3 No. 6) and Ready To Fire (Race 8 No. 4).

IPSWICH

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Adirondack is an early scratching ***

Maurus looks the obvious selection here after his slashing run (below) in the much tougher G1 Doomben Cup last start. Prior to that he absolutely mauled a field similar to this to win a 2200m race at Doomben. He does have to overcome a wide gate and four weeks between runs thanks to that washed out meeting a fortnight ago. The obvious favourite and any rain only helps his chances.

Worthy Cause wasn't in the first nominations but was a late entry when they were extended and I hate horses going into races as an afterthought. Clearly this wasn't on the agenda seven days ago. His last win was at Flemington last October over 1400m (beating Turn Me Loose). He hasn't missed the top five in nine subsequent runs and is always thereabouts but he's hard to warm to with 58kg. He's practically friendless in the betting.

Puccini has to be forgiven his performance last week at Eagle Farm when cluttered up on the fence in the straight in the G2 Brisbane Cup. Prior to that he really made his stablemate Real Love work hard to win the G3 Premier's Cup. He's a former G1 N.Z. Derby winner (below) but he hasn't won since January last year and he's never won in Australia in 18 attempts.

Dance Of Heroes draws well and will appreciate some wight relief here after lumping hefty imposts at his last two outings. Trainer Chris Waller has a great record with these imports when the get up to 2000m+. He opened at $8 in early markets but has been backed into $5.50. He wasn't far away in the Listed Wagga Cup three starts ago and meets Iggi Pop 2kg better off here.

Jumbo Prince is another late entry. His run last weekend was forgivable given he got well back in a race where they walked in front. Prior to that he got home OK in the G3 Lord Mayors Cup and wasn't beaten far. This time last year he was a one length third (below) in the G1 Queensland Derby and he looks like a horse in need of further now looking at his last two efforts.

Iggi Pop tends to mix his form. Four times in his last eight starts he has been beaten out of sight yet the other four runs yielded second placings in some handy staying races like the G3 Colin Stephen Quality, the Toowoomba Cup, the Listed Wagga Cup and the Listed McKell Cup. On those latter four runs he's in this with some kind of hope. He has been nibbled at in early betting. Another late entry.

I don't think the other four are up to it but if you want something to throw into exotics at massive odds Instrumentalist was OK in a much hotter race than this last start and prior to that was third behind Maurus and meets him better at the weight scale this time around. The other three are late entries.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Maurus

DANGER  

1. Puccini

FOR EXOTICS

7. Dance Of Heroes

5. Jumbo Prince

OTHER BET

Serenade (Ipswich Race 8 No. 10) has drawn well and is in on the minimum and is racing in fine fettle. Her overall record may not make great reading but she's consistently been taking on the best of her generation including a two length seventh (below) behind Vancouver in a G1 Golden Slipper. She is the first runner at Ipswich this year for trainer Mike Moroney but he has had success here before winning the feature with Shenzou Steeds four years ago.

Good punting!