Back to Eagle Farm for the first time in nearly two years and it looks a tough G1 Queensland Oaks on what will almost certainly be a heavy track with a capacity field of lightly raced 3-y-o fillies with many stepping up to a trip for the first time.
The markets seems to indicate that too because they're betting $6.50 the field here with just four runners at $31 or better and the remainder at $19 or less.
The markets seems to indicate that too because they're betting $6.50 the field here with just four runners at $31 or better and the remainder at $19 or less.
Who's Hot?
Team Snowden has had a great couple of weeks picking up the G3 B.R.C. Sprint with Snippets Land and the G2 B.R.C. Sires Produce with Attention.
They have runners at Rosehill and Kembla Grange tomorrow plus good chances at Eagle Farm too with Jericho (Race 1 No. 3), Snippets Land (Race 6 No. 4) and a trio of fillies in the G1 Queensland Oaks.
EAGLE FARM
The Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
*** Beluga Blue is an early scratching ***
NOTE : Since 2000 only five favourites have saluted and yet 11 of the 16 winners were at single figure odds. 12 of those winners came from single digit barriers. Nine of the last 11 winners came via the G2 Doomben Roses and the last seven winners all finished at least top four at their last start.
Capacity field here and several of the key chances have drawn poorly such as Chabaud (14), Romantic Maid (15), Tavi Bay (16), Sebring Sally (19), Provocative (20), Ambience (21) and Dawnie Perfect (22). But given the weather forecast I have to ask the question is the fence going to be the place to be come 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon?
The obvious form race for this is the G1 A.T.C Oaks run at Randwick seven weeks ago given it was run at this trip and on a wet surface. Ambience (below) beat all bar the winner Sofia Rosa in that race and she was also placed in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks last Spring on a heavy track after winning the G2 Wakeful Stakes on a slow track at Flemington on Derby Day. On the downside she has drawn poorly and her last run was average but on her best from she'd go close here so it may pay to give her another chance.
Chabaud (below) was fifth in the G1 A.T.C. Oaks and was on the heels of Ambience despite not seeing a lot of room in the straight and she looked as powerful as any of them on the line. She then took on older mares for a close up fourth at Flemington when dropping back to 2000m before running away with the G3 S.A. Fillies Classic over 2500m last start. If she can overcome the bad draw she her wet track form is solid.
Self Esteem was only a length and half behind Chaubaud (above) in the G1 A.T.C Oaks and just over three lengths off the winner and in her two runs in Queensland since she's been brave up on the speed. With her early tactical speed and good gate she's probably going to lob in a lovely spot and the stable is flying at the moment. She's a query at the trip but so are many others.
Alaskan Rose finished just behind Self Esteem (above) in the G1 A.T.C. Oaks and should have beaten her and finished a lot closer to the winner after being stopped in her tracks at about the 200m. What I liked about the run was the way she picked herself up afterwards and still kept attacking the line to run past a few late. It was a similar case last start when she had no luck but kept finding the line. She's been $31 into $19 in early betting.
Now to take a look at those who missed the G1 A.T.C. Oaks but follow the traditional lead-up path of the G2 Doomben Roses.
Kebede won the race after getting a good trail in a slowly run race where the first four over the line were all in the first five coming around the turn. She's drawn to get the gun run again here but stepping up to the 2400m has to be a big question mark. Still she's done nothing wrong this campaign and has been competitive in all the right races. She's had one run on a wet track for a win and Matthew Dunn has been training quite a few winners of late.
Sebring Sally started $101 last start and just failed to run down Kebede in the G2 Doomben Roses. One win and three placings from six starts in the wet reads well for a track like this and jockey Hugh Bowman has won this race twice before. Trainer Chris Waller won this race last year with Winx but it will be a tough ask to go back-to-back from the terrible barrier draw.
Imposing Lass is an on-pacer who had strung together four wins on end before finishing third to the aforementioned duo. She had a tough run in transit and is likely to get the same again tomorrow because there are a few here who like to kick up and many of them are drawn out wide. That has me worried about whether she will run out the trip but the Bjorn Baker factor and the fact she's won in the wet before are both a big plus here.
Dawnie Perfect was the best of the swoopers in the G2 Doomben Roses on a day when there was a clear bias to horses on pace and near the fence. She came from near last to be a tick over two and a half lengths off them at the finish and trainer Clarry Conners has won this race twice before. Kerrin McEvoy has already won the G1 Doomben Cup and G1 Doomben 10,000 in the last two weeks and she did win the G3 Ethereal Stakes (below) at Caulfield last Spring beating Ambience. The wide barrier and her poor wet track form are against her though.
Falkenberg also came from well back last start in the G2 Doomben Roses and as previously outlined that was hard to do given the tempo and the pattern of the day. She maps beautifully here from barrier three and jockey Blake Shinn is riding well but she's an unknown on affected ground. She gives every indication that she's looking for the 2400m but like so many others you are taking that on trust.
Dulverton didn't have a lot of luck in the G2 Doomben Roses but she did finish her race off nicely once she finally got clear galloping room. Her only win to date was a three and a half length romp on a slow track at just her second start but they thought enough of her to run her in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks (below) just three runs later. Drawn well and has had an ideal prep for this.
Romantic Maid is very lightly raced but young gun Sam Clipperton has made the trip up from Sydney to ride her following her last start victory at Randwick when she lumped 58.5kg over 2000m. He wouldn't have been pleased by the barrier draw but she could roll forward and get across with some luck and she has won three of her six starts. Trainer Roger James won this race in 2000 with Giovanna. Wet track the query.
Tavi Bay looks set to peak here after three runs in and she is bred to stay being a daughter of Tavistock and a great-granddaughter of G1 Australasian Oaks winner Tristalove. Her great-great-grandmother Diamond Lover was a half-sister to Octagonal. She was beaten nearly 20 lengths at her only start on wet track which doesn't read well given the expected conditions and she to make it worse she has drawn badly.
Tap This narrowly beat older horses over 2200m in a Gold Coast BM80 last start after copping a bit of interference. Prior to that she was a four length fifth in the G3 Rough Habit Plate and Mackintosh (first) and Eagle Way (fourth) have since franked that form by running the quinella in last weekend's G3 Grand Prix Stakes. I expect her to push forward from the awkward barrier and she has won in the wet before.
And there's still five others I haven't mentioned. Tough race to find a winner. It'd be easier to get a winning ticket in a chook raffle.
Locky's Selections
BEST
8. Alaskan Rose
12. Falkenberg
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
1. Ambience
15. Romantic Maid
4. Imposing Lass
OTHER BETS
2. Chabaud
4. Imposing Lass
OTHER BETS
Maurus (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 4) took on the topliners at level weights last start in the G1 Doomben Cup and was less than two lengths off the winner. This is easier than that and if he can reproduce his run of two starts ago when he bolted in over 2200m at Doomben he'll be hard to beat. Trainer David Vandyke has been going great guns since making the move to Queensland and jockey Blake Shinn has won four Black Type races in Brisbane in the last three weeks.
Sultry Feeling (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 1) has been given a four week freshen up for this and does look very well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions. She'll appreciate the drop back to a Listed race after taking on two pretty hot fields at her last two starts. Prior to that she'd strung together a couple of wins at G3 level during the early part of the Sydney Carnival. A two-time winner on soft going and a three-time winner fresh. Kerrin McEvoy has ridden the winner of the big G1 at the last two Saturday meetings in Brisbane.
Sultry Feeling (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 1) has been given a four week freshen up for this and does look very well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions. She'll appreciate the drop back to a Listed race after taking on two pretty hot fields at her last two starts. Prior to that she'd strung together a couple of wins at G3 level during the early part of the Sydney Carnival. A two-time winner on soft going and a three-time winner fresh. Kerrin McEvoy has ridden the winner of the big G1 at the last two Saturday meetings in Brisbane.
Good punting!
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