Not a drop of rain at Eagle Farm this week and remarkably after 125mm fell last Saturday we are back on a firm surface just a week later.
In fact they put 5mm of irrigation on the track this morning because it was looking a little firm.
Grand Opening 2.0 looks a cracker with a huge 10 race program including four G1's.
In fact they put 5mm of irrigation on the track this morning because it was looking a little firm.
Grand Opening 2.0 looks a cracker with a huge 10 race program including four G1's.
Who's Hot?
Brad Rawiller has been racking up the Black Type winners in recent months with victories aboard Flamberge, Black Heart Bart (twice), Rageese, Howard Be Thy Name and Real Love (three times).
He has five rides at Eagle Farm tomorrow in Stratum Star (Race 5 No. 1), Real Love (Race 6 No. 3), Jaws Of Steel (Race 7 No. 8), Howard Be Thy Name (Race 8 No. 1) and Black Heart Bart (Race 9 No. 1).
EAGLE FARM
The Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
NOTE : Seven of the last 10 winners paid $11 or better and none of them carried more than 55.5kg. Six of the last 10 winners carried less than 54kg.
I've been leaning towards Azkadellia all along for this race and I see no reason to jump ship now. The rain last weekend will have taken the edge off the track after a very dry few weeks in Brisbane which will suit this mare. With just 54.5kg she looks really well placed here and her run a fortnight ago (below) in the G1 Doomben 10,000 should have her spot on for this.
If she goes in on top then Music Magnate has to be in the mix somewhere because he did beat her the other day (above) and meets her 1kg better off for having done so. He is a very talented young horse on the way up and a repeat dose here wouldn't surprise. He's unbeaten at this trip.
Charlie Boy is my best roughie because he was less than a length off the aforementioned duo (above) and meets the mare 2kg better off and the gelding 1kg to the good. Black Heart Bart and Malaguerra both have strong claims on their recent form (and overall records for that matter) but it is a big ask to carry 56kg+ and win a race like this. Counterattack and Takedown both have strong claims with their featherweights and 3-y-o's have won four of the last 13 runnings.
It means I've had to leave out a bunch of talented types like Under The Louvre (he doesn't win often), Kaepernick (Jekyll and Hyde), Artlee (interrupted preparation), Delectation (see Kaepernick) plus Hooked and Two Blue (gutbusters last start). Oh well - you can't tip them all!
Locky's Selections
BEST
4. Music Magnate
5. Azkadellia
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
12. Counterattack
3. Malaguerra
1. Black Heart Bart
*** Colonel Custer is an early scratching ***
NOTE : The last two winners have returned $13 but prior to that no winner had paid double figure odds since 2002. The last eight favourites have placed but only three won. Only one filly has won since the turn of the century.
I'm tipping Howard Be Thy Name here because I think he should have gone close to winning the G3 Grand Prix Stakes last start but just got disappointed for a run late. Prior to that he was a strong winner (below) of the G1 S.A. Derby so you know he'll get the trip. He's gone to another level this last two months and he looks like he'll get the run of the race from the good barrier draw.
The obvious danger is Eagle Way who has just kept ticking along nicely this prep in all the right lead up races. He's got better with every run and the step up to the mile and a half looks ideal at this stage of his prep because he savaged the line in the G3 Grand Prix Stakes. He'll probably have to go back and spot them a start from that gate but look for him charging late.
Looking at the wider exotics Etymology has strong staying credentials with placings in a G1 S.A. Derby (above), a G1 V.R.C. Derby and a Listed V.R.C. St Leger. He went OK in the G1 A.T.C Derby two months ago too. Bad draw though. His stablemate Eschiele made good late ground at Doomben last start on a day when that was hard to do and he is bred to stay a trip. They've paid the late entry fee to start here and he's drawn beautifully. I'm Belucci could run into the first four at big odds on his last start effort. He got too far back in a leader dominated race but I liked the way he worked to the line.
I'm risking Mackintosh because I've got a question mark on him at the trip especially if it becomes a true staying test. I also couldn't find a place for Encosta Line but these two could very well run the quinella for trainer Chris Waller. He's also got what looks a talented young horse in Rodrico but I think this may have come a bit too soon for him. It's hard to make a case for any of the others.
OTHER BETS
6. Charlie Boy
1. Black Heart Bart
The Queensland Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** Colonel Custer is an early scratching ***
NOTE : The last two winners have returned $13 but prior to that no winner had paid double figure odds since 2002. The last eight favourites have placed but only three won. Only one filly has won since the turn of the century.
I'm tipping Howard Be Thy Name here because I think he should have gone close to winning the G3 Grand Prix Stakes last start but just got disappointed for a run late. Prior to that he was a strong winner (below) of the G1 S.A. Derby so you know he'll get the trip. He's gone to another level this last two months and he looks like he'll get the run of the race from the good barrier draw.
The obvious danger is Eagle Way who has just kept ticking along nicely this prep in all the right lead up races. He's got better with every run and the step up to the mile and a half looks ideal at this stage of his prep because he savaged the line in the G3 Grand Prix Stakes. He'll probably have to go back and spot them a start from that gate but look for him charging late.
Looking at the wider exotics Etymology has strong staying credentials with placings in a G1 S.A. Derby (above), a G1 V.R.C. Derby and a Listed V.R.C. St Leger. He went OK in the G1 A.T.C Derby two months ago too. Bad draw though. His stablemate Eschiele made good late ground at Doomben last start on a day when that was hard to do and he is bred to stay a trip. They've paid the late entry fee to start here and he's drawn beautifully. I'm Belucci could run into the first four at big odds on his last start effort. He got too far back in a leader dominated race but I liked the way he worked to the line.
I'm risking Mackintosh because I've got a question mark on him at the trip especially if it becomes a true staying test. I also couldn't find a place for Encosta Line but these two could very well run the quinella for trainer Chris Waller. He's also got what looks a talented young horse in Rodrico but I think this may have come a bit too soon for him. It's hard to make a case for any of the others.
Locky's Selections
BEST
7. Eagle Way
1. Howard Be Thy Name
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
2. Etymology
13. Eschiele
5. I'm Belucci
3. Mackintosh
2. Etymology
3. Mackintosh
OTHER BETS
Too Good To Refuse (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 1) has been the eye-catcher in both his last runs with a narrow second to his stablemate Cylinder Beach followed up by a barnstorming fifth to Counterattack from back in the field in the G3 Fred Best Classic. He's had two wins and two placings from four runs at the mile and the spacious Eagle Farm track will suit him right down to the ground.
Real Love (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 4) has been good to me and loyal readers with back-to-back wins and I can't see any reason she can't make it a trio of Brisbane staying features. She's looked strong at the end of both races so stepping up in distance will only be a positive because she's never missed a place in seven runs at 2400m or beyond. She was racing well without winning before heading north but she's positively thrived in Queensland.
Real Love (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 4) has been good to me and loyal readers with back-to-back wins and I can't see any reason she can't make it a trio of Brisbane staying features. She's looked strong at the end of both races so stepping up in distance will only be a positive because she's never missed a place in seven runs at 2400m or beyond. She was racing well without winning before heading north but she's positively thrived in Queensland.
Sacred Elixir (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 9) flashed home in the G2 Sires Produce at Doomben a fortnight ago. At his previous start he blitzed them over 1400m on the much larger Sunshine Coast circuit and on that run I think he'll appreciate the wide, open expanses of Eagle Farm. He's a winner on a Soft 6 in his native N.Z. so he won't be bothered if the track deteriorates.
My G1 Queensland Oaks write up from last week can be found here. I still like Falkenberg (Eagle Farm Race 10 No. 12).
My G1 Queensland Oaks write up from last week can be found here. I still like Falkenberg (Eagle Farm Race 10 No. 12).
Good punting!
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