G1 Tatt's Tiara Day - 25.06.2016

Back to Eagle Farm this weekend for the final major of the season in the shape of the G1 Tatt's Tiara for the fillies and mares.

I'll be carefully monitoring the track as the day progresses because two weeks ago it raced very differently early in the piece to what it was doing come the final races and I'm going to treat it like a genuine wet track.

Who's Hot? 

Jockey Damian Browne had four rides at Ipswich last weekend and won two of the features aboard Maurus and Ninth Legion and placed on his other two mounts.

His best chances of success at Eagle Farm tomorrow look like Hopfgarten (Race 3 No. 1) and Charnley River (Race 7 No. 1).

EAGLE FARM

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

The Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, fillies and mares set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** My Poppette is an early scratching ***

Azkadellia looks well placed at weights here and has had four goes at the journey for two wins and two seconds. Her only miss was last start (below) in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap when she was in the worst part of the track. Her wide barrier could be a blessing given the way this Eagle Farm track was playing late in the day a fortnight ago. That was only the second time in her career she's missed a top three finish so it may pay to be forgiving. Trainer Ciaron Maher won this race last year with Srikandi.

Precious Gem got a mile back last start (above) in the G1 Stradbroke but made some ground late to finish sixth although she was beaten a long way. She b eat Azkadellia home that day but meets her 2kg to the worse here. Her previous three runs this campaign were great with a narrow defeat first-up followed by back-to-back wins including a G1 Sangster Classic. A three-time winner at 1400m.

Cradle Me won the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes at this track and distance last start and is looking to become the third horse in four years to complete the double. Prior to that she beat all bar Ghisoni in the G3 Glenlogan Park Stakes. Her record at the trip is good (7:2-2-1) and three starts back she has form around Music Magnate. The wide gate is no help. 10 of her 11 wins came on firm tracks.

Danish Twist won the Provincial Championship (below) four starts back and hasn't been beaten since. She's had eight starts at this trip for four wins and four placings and showed her versatility last start when lumping 56kg to beat the boys in the Listed June Stakes because she was four weeks between runs and dropping from 1400m to 1100m. Leading G1 rider Hugh Bowman takes the ride and draws the inside. Beware a mare in form.

In the nine runnings of this race since it went to G1 status and 1400m four winners have returned double figure odds so let's have a look at some of the others even though they are all going to start $14+.

Artistry, Jessy Belle and Onemorezeta filled the minor placings in the G2 Dane Ripper Stakes behind Cradle Me with the former probably being the best run of the trio given she came from behind the other two on what was at the time a leader biased track. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy stays solid and he did ride the winner of this race last year. Wet track form is poor. Jessy Belle will meet her a kilo better off here and has three wins and five placings at the distance plus she does have wet track form. Onemorezeta meets all three that finished in front of her in that race better at the weights and she did have to overcome a wide draw that day but she will have to do so again.

Sultry Feeling has been freshened for this and that's when she seems to produce her best. Three goes at the journey for no wins and just the solitary placing is a worry and she's drawn poorly here too. Miss Cover Girl was only half a length off the boys (below) in the G2 Q.T.C. Cup last start. She's won and placed at the trip before and handles all surfaces and her jockey is riding really well. She's only missed a top five finish three times in her 25 start career. Blueberry Hill was super at Ipswich last week and is unbeaten in the wet. Beatniks also has good form on affected ground and 1400m does seem to be her pet trip. She's been close-up without threatening in all the traditional fillies and mares lead-up races.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Azkadellia

DANGER  

2. Danish Twist

FOR EXOTICS

6. Jessy Belle

5. Miss Cover Girl

15. Blueberry Hill
14. Beatniks

OTHER BET

Charnley River (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 1) was excellent (below) in the G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He drew barrier 17 and was used up a little early to find a spot before being left in front shortly after the turn. Only Sacred Elixir was able to get past him in the end, he still looked strong on the line and he's likely to strike a similar track here tomorrow. He only needs to reproduce that effort to win here.

Sold For Song (Eagle Farm Race 10 No. 9) was good in the G2 Queensland Guineas when third behind Tsaritsa and meets that filly 2.5kg better off here. I'm gambling that by late in the day they'll be coming wide just like they did two weeks ago. She's two from two on slow tracks which will help if this surface starts to deteriorate and I like the face that she has drawn out while the short priced favourite has drawn inside. Watch for her late.

Good punting!

Listed Ipswich Cup Day - 18.06.2016

The Winter Carnival heads west this weekend with the running of the time honoured Listed Ipswich Cup.

It hasn't been a happy punting ground for me over the years but let's see if this year I can defy the pattern. 

Who's Hot? 

I'm looking to the west this weekend and trainer Justin Warwick and his daughter jockey Lucy Warwick bagged four winners on a memorable day last Saturday at Belmont. 

The return to the same track tomorrow to combine on The Flirt (Race 3 No. 6) and Ready To Fire (Race 8 No. 4).

IPSWICH

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Adirondack is an early scratching ***

Maurus looks the obvious selection here after his slashing run (below) in the much tougher G1 Doomben Cup last start. Prior to that he absolutely mauled a field similar to this to win a 2200m race at Doomben. He does have to overcome a wide gate and four weeks between runs thanks to that washed out meeting a fortnight ago. The obvious favourite and any rain only helps his chances.

Worthy Cause wasn't in the first nominations but was a late entry when they were extended and I hate horses going into races as an afterthought. Clearly this wasn't on the agenda seven days ago. His last win was at Flemington last October over 1400m (beating Turn Me Loose). He hasn't missed the top five in nine subsequent runs and is always thereabouts but he's hard to warm to with 58kg. He's practically friendless in the betting.

Puccini has to be forgiven his performance last week at Eagle Farm when cluttered up on the fence in the straight in the G2 Brisbane Cup. Prior to that he really made his stablemate Real Love work hard to win the G3 Premier's Cup. He's a former G1 N.Z. Derby winner (below) but he hasn't won since January last year and he's never won in Australia in 18 attempts.

Dance Of Heroes draws well and will appreciate some wight relief here after lumping hefty imposts at his last two outings. Trainer Chris Waller has a great record with these imports when the get up to 2000m+. He opened at $8 in early markets but has been backed into $5.50. He wasn't far away in the Listed Wagga Cup three starts ago and meets Iggi Pop 2kg better off here.

Jumbo Prince is another late entry. His run last weekend was forgivable given he got well back in a race where they walked in front. Prior to that he got home OK in the G3 Lord Mayors Cup and wasn't beaten far. This time last year he was a one length third (below) in the G1 Queensland Derby and he looks like a horse in need of further now looking at his last two efforts.

Iggi Pop tends to mix his form. Four times in his last eight starts he has been beaten out of sight yet the other four runs yielded second placings in some handy staying races like the G3 Colin Stephen Quality, the Toowoomba Cup, the Listed Wagga Cup and the Listed McKell Cup. On those latter four runs he's in this with some kind of hope. He has been nibbled at in early betting. Another late entry.

I don't think the other four are up to it but if you want something to throw into exotics at massive odds Instrumentalist was OK in a much hotter race than this last start and prior to that was third behind Maurus and meets him better at the weight scale this time around. The other three are late entries.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Maurus

DANGER  

1. Puccini

FOR EXOTICS

7. Dance Of Heroes

5. Jumbo Prince

OTHER BET

Serenade (Ipswich Race 8 No. 10) has drawn well and is in on the minimum and is racing in fine fettle. Her overall record may not make great reading but she's consistently been taking on the best of her generation including a two length seventh (below) behind Vancouver in a G1 Golden Slipper. She is the first runner at Ipswich this year for trainer Mike Moroney but he has had success here before winning the feature with Shenzou Steeds four years ago.

Good punting!

G1 Stradbroke Handicap Day - 11.06.2106

Not a drop of rain at Eagle Farm this week and remarkably after 125mm fell last Saturday we are back on a firm surface just a week later.

In fact they put 5mm of irrigation on the track this morning because it was looking a little firm.

Grand Opening 2.0 looks a cracker with a huge 10 race program including four G1's.

Who's Hot? 

Brad Rawiller has been racking up the Black Type winners in recent months with victories aboard Flamberge, Black Heart Bart (twice), Rageese, Howard Be Thy Name and Real Love (three times).

He has five rides at Eagle Farm tomorrow in Stratum Star (Race 5 No. 1), Real Love (Race 6 No. 3), Jaws Of Steel (Race 7 No. 8), Howard Be Thy Name (Race 8 No. 1) and Black Heart Bart (Race 9 No. 1).

EAGLE FARM

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

The Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

NOTE : Seven of the last 10 winners paid $11 or better and none of them carried more than 55.5kg. Six of the last 10 winners carried less than 54kg.

I've been leaning towards Azkadellia all along for this race and I see no reason to jump ship now. The rain last weekend will have taken the edge off the track after a very dry few weeks in Brisbane which will suit this mare. With just 54.5kg she looks really well placed here and her run a fortnight ago (below) in the G1 Doomben 10,000 should have her spot on for this.

If she goes in on top then Music Magnate has to be in the mix somewhere because he did beat her the other day (above) and meets her 1kg better off for having done so. He is a very talented young horse on the way up and a repeat dose here wouldn't surprise. He's unbeaten at this trip.

Charlie Boy is my best roughie because he was less than a length off the aforementioned duo (above) and meets the mare 2kg better off and the gelding 1kg to the good. Black Heart Bart and Malaguerra both have strong claims on their recent form (and overall records for that matter) but it is a big ask to carry 56kg+ and win a race like this. Counterattack and Takedown both have strong claims with their featherweights and 3-y-o's have won four of the last 13 runnings.

It means I've had to leave out a bunch of talented types like Under The Louvre (he doesn't win often), Kaepernick (Jekyll and Hyde), Artlee (interrupted preparation), Delectation (see Kaepernick) plus Hooked and Two Blue (gutbusters last start). Oh well - you can't tip them all!

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. Azkadellia

DANGER  

4. Music Magnate

FOR EXOTICS

6. Charlie Boy

12. Counterattack

3. Malaguerra
1. Black Heart Bart

The Queensland Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Colonel Custer is an early scratching ***

NOTE : The last two winners have returned $13 but prior to that no winner had paid double figure odds since 2002. The last eight favourites have placed but only three won. Only one filly has won since the turn of the century.

I'm tipping Howard Be Thy Name here because I think he should have gone close to winning the G3 Grand Prix Stakes last start but just got disappointed for a run late. Prior to that he was a strong winner (below) of the G1 S.A. Derby so you know he'll get the trip. He's gone to another level this last two months and he looks like he'll get the run of the race from the good barrier draw.

The obvious danger is Eagle Way who has just kept ticking along nicely this prep in all the right lead up races. He's got better with every run and the step up to the mile and a half looks ideal at this stage of his prep because he savaged the line in the G3 Grand Prix Stakes. He'll probably have to go back and spot them a start from that gate but look for him charging late.

Looking at the wider exotics Etymology has strong staying credentials with placings in a G1 S.A. Derby (above), a G1 V.R.C. Derby and a Listed V.R.C. St Leger. He went OK in the G1 A.T.C Derby two months ago too. Bad draw though. His stablemate Eschiele made good late ground at Doomben last start on a day when that was hard to do and he is bred to stay a trip. They've paid the late entry fee to start here and he's drawn beautifully. I'm Belucci could run into the first four at big odds on his last start effort. He got too far back in a leader dominated race but I liked the way he worked to the line.

I'm risking Mackintosh because I've got a question mark on him at the trip especially if it becomes a true staying test. I also couldn't find a place for Encosta Line but these two could very well run the quinella for trainer Chris Waller. He's also got what looks a talented young horse in Rodrico but I think this may have come a bit too soon for him. It's hard to make a case for any of the others.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Howard Be Thy Name

DANGER  

7. Eagle Way

FOR EXOTICS

2. Etymology

13. Eschiele

5. I'm Belucci
3. Mackintosh

OTHER BETS

Too Good To Refuse (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 1) has been the eye-catcher in both his last runs with a narrow second to his stablemate Cylinder Beach followed up by a barnstorming fifth to Counterattack from back in the field in the G3 Fred Best Classic. He's had two wins and two placings from four runs at the mile and the spacious Eagle Farm track will suit him right down to the ground.

Real Love (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 4) has been good to me and loyal readers with back-to-back wins and I can't see any reason she can't make it a trio of Brisbane staying features. She's looked strong at the end of both races so stepping up in distance will only be a positive because she's never missed a place in seven runs at 2400m or beyond. She was racing well without winning before heading north but she's positively thrived in Queensland.

Sacred Elixir (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 9) flashed home in the G2 Sires Produce at Doomben a fortnight ago. At his previous start he blitzed them over 1400m on the much larger Sunshine Coast circuit and on that run I think he'll appreciate the wide, open expanses of Eagle Farm. He's a winner on a Soft 6 in his native N.Z. so he won't be bothered if the track deteriorates.

My G1 Queensland Oaks write up from last week can be found here. I still like Falkenberg (Eagle Farm Race 10 No. 12).

Good punting!

G1 Queensland Oaks Day - 04.06.2016

Back to Eagle Farm for the first time in nearly two years and it looks a tough G1 Queensland Oaks on what will almost certainly be a heavy track with a capacity field of lightly raced 3-y-o fillies with many stepping up to a trip for the first time.

The markets seems to indicate that too because they're betting $6.50 the field here with just four runners at $31 or better and the remainder at $19 or less.

Who's Hot? 

Team Snowden has had a great couple of weeks picking up the G3 B.R.C. Sprint with Snippets Land and the G2 B.R.C. Sires Produce with Attention. 

They have runners at Rosehill and Kembla Grange tomorrow plus good chances at Eagle Farm too with Jericho (Race 1 No. 3), Snippets Land (Race 6 No. 4) and a trio of fillies in the G1 Queensland Oaks.

EAGLE FARM

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a very high chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon with heavy falls possible. ***

PLEASE NOTE : They are prediciting up to 100mm of rain on Saturday.

The Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Beluga Blue is an early scratching ***

NOTE : Since 2000 only five favourites have saluted and yet 11 of the 16 winners were at single figure odds. 12 of those winners came from single digit barriers. Nine of the last 11 winners came via the G2 Doomben Roses and the last seven winners all finished at least top four at their last start.

Capacity field here and several of the key chances have drawn poorly such as Chabaud (14), Romantic Maid (15), Tavi Bay (16), Sebring Sally (19), Provocative (20), Ambience (21) and Dawnie Perfect (22). But given the weather forecast I have to ask the question is the fence going to be the place to be come 4 p.m. tomorrow afternoon?

The obvious form race for this is the G1 A.T.C Oaks run at Randwick seven weeks ago given it was run at this trip and on a wet surface. Ambience (below) beat all bar the winner Sofia Rosa in that race and she was also placed in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks last Spring on a heavy track after winning the G2 Wakeful Stakes on a slow track at Flemington on Derby Day. On the downside she has drawn poorly and her last run was average but on her best from she'd go close here so it may pay to give her another chance. 

Chabaud (below) was fifth in the G1 A.T.C. Oaks and was on the heels of Ambience despite not seeing a lot of room in the straight and she looked as powerful as any of them on the line. She then took on older mares for a close up fourth at Flemington when dropping back to 2000m before running away with the G3 S.A. Fillies Classic over 2500m last start. If she can overcome the bad draw she her wet track form is solid.

Self Esteem was only a length and half behind Chaubaud (above) in the G1 A.T.C Oaks and just over three lengths off the winner and in her two runs in Queensland since she's been brave up on the speed. With her early tactical speed and good gate she's probably going to lob in a lovely spot and the stable is flying at the moment. She's a query at the trip but so are many others.

Alaskan Rose finished just behind Self Esteem (above) in the G1 A.T.C. Oaks and should have beaten her and finished a lot closer to the winner after being stopped in her tracks at about the 200m. What I liked about the run was the way she picked herself up afterwards and still kept attacking the line to run past a few late. It was a similar case last start when she had no luck but kept finding the line. She's been $31 into $19 in early betting.

Now to take a look at those who missed the G1 A.T.C. Oaks but follow the traditional lead-up path of the G2 Doomben Roses.

Kebede won the race after getting a good trail in a slowly run race where the first four over the line were all in the first five coming around the turn. She's drawn to get the gun run again here but stepping up to the 2400m has to be a big question mark. Still she's done nothing wrong this campaign and has been competitive in all the right races. She's had one run on a wet track for a win and Matthew Dunn has been training quite a few winners of late.

Sebring Sally started $101 last start and just failed to run down Kebede in the G2 Doomben Roses. One win and three placings from six starts in the wet reads well for a track like this and jockey Hugh Bowman has won this race twice before. Trainer Chris Waller won this race last year with Winx but it will be a tough ask to go back-to-back from the terrible barrier draw.

Imposing Lass is an on-pacer who had strung together four wins on end before finishing third to the aforementioned duo. She had a tough run in transit and is likely to get the same again tomorrow because there are a few here who like to kick up and many of them are drawn out wide. That has me worried about whether she will run out the trip but the Bjorn Baker factor and the fact she's won in the wet before are both a big plus here.

Dawnie Perfect was the best of the swoopers in the G2 Doomben Roses on a day when there was a clear bias to horses on pace and near the fence. She came from near last to be a tick over two and a half lengths off them at the finish and trainer Clarry Conners has won this race twice before. Kerrin McEvoy has already won the G1 Doomben Cup and G1 Doomben 10,000 in the last two weeks and she did win the G3 Ethereal Stakes (below) at Caulfield last Spring beating Ambience. The wide barrier and her poor wet track form are against her though.

Falkenberg also came from well back last start in the G2 Doomben Roses and as previously outlined that was hard to do given the tempo and the pattern of the day. She maps beautifully here from barrier three and jockey Blake Shinn is riding well but she's an unknown on affected ground. She gives every indication that she's looking for the 2400m but like so many others you are taking that on trust. 

Dulverton didn't have a lot of luck in the G2 Doomben Roses but she did finish her race off nicely once she finally got clear galloping room. Her only win to date was a three and a half length romp on a slow track at just her second start but they thought enough of her to run her in the G1 V.R.C. Oaks (below) just three runs later. Drawn well and has had an ideal prep for this.

Romantic Maid is very lightly raced but young gun Sam Clipperton has made the trip up from Sydney to ride her following her last start victory at Randwick when she lumped 58.5kg over 2000m. He wouldn't have been pleased by the barrier draw but she could roll forward and get across with some luck and she has won three of her six starts. Trainer Roger James won this race in 2000 with Giovanna. Wet track the query.

Tavi Bay looks set to peak here after three runs in and she is bred to stay being a daughter of Tavistock and a great-granddaughter of G1 Australasian Oaks winner Tristalove. Her great-great-grandmother Diamond Lover was a half-sister to Octagonal. She was beaten nearly 20 lengths at her only start on wet track which doesn't read well given the expected conditions and she to make it worse she has drawn badly. 

Provocative (1E) is also three from six and got the scratching she needed to get into the field but even so she's still going to jump from the car park. That hasn't stopped them from backing her in from $12 to $8.50 in early markets on the back of her dominant last start midweek win at Ipswich over 2190m with 58.5kg. She's unplaced in two wet track runs though so I'm risking her here.

Tap This narrowly beat older horses over 2200m in a Gold Coast BM80 last start after copping a bit of interference. Prior to that she was a four length fifth in the G3 Rough Habit Plate and Mackintosh (first) and Eagle Way (fourth) have since franked that form by running the quinella in last weekend's G3 Grand Prix Stakes. I expect her to push forward from the awkward barrier and she has won in the wet before.

And there's still five others I haven't mentioned. Tough race to find a winner. It'd be easier to get a winning ticket in a chook raffle.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

12. Falkenberg

DANGER  

8. Alaskan Rose

FOR EXOTICS

2. Chabaud

1. Ambience

15. Romantic Maid
4. Imposing Lass

OTHER BETS

Maurus (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 4) took on the topliners at level weights last start in the G1 Doomben Cup and was less than two lengths off the winner. This is easier than that and if he can reproduce his run of two starts ago when he bolted in over 2200m at Doomben he'll be hard to beat. Trainer David Vandyke has been going great guns since making the move to Queensland and jockey Blake Shinn has won four Black Type races in Brisbane in the last three weeks.

Sultry Feeling (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 1) has been given a four week freshen up for this and does look very well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions. She'll appreciate the drop back to a Listed race after taking on two pretty hot fields at her last two starts. Prior to that she'd strung together a couple of wins at G3 level during the early part of the Sydney Carnival. A two-time winner on soft going and a three-time winner fresh. Kerrin McEvoy has ridden the winner of the big G1 at the last two Saturday meetings in Brisbane.

Good punting!