G1 Doomben 10,000 Day - 28.05.2016

What an enthralling G1 Doomben 10,000!

Can Azkadellia give trainer Ciaron Maher another Brisbane Winter Carnival G1? Will Fell Swoop be Matthew Dale's first ever major winner or can Delectation give Chris Waller back-to-back successes following the victory of Boban last year? Will it be Music Magnate for the in-form Bjorn Baker yard or perhaps Team Snowden will go one better than last year with Charlie Boy? Or maybe his stablemate Dothraki - will he fire up now that Winter is Coming?

A fascinating contest with a strong support card of six more Black Type races.

Who's Hot? 

Blake Shinn had a winning double at Doomben a fortnight ago and another winner last weekend. He followed that with a treble at Canterbury on Wednesday and a double at the Sunshine Coast today. That makes it 14 winners from his last 40 rides.

He has a full book at Doomben tomorrow including fancied runners in Fine Mist (Race 1 No. 5), Amicus (Race 3 No. 1), Junoob (Race 4 No. 1), Attention (Race 5 No. 3), Dothraki (Race 7 No. 3) and Mackintosh (Race 8 No. 4).

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a sunny day. ***

The Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1350m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Divine Centuri is an early scratching ***

Azkadellia broke through for her first major last start (below) when winning the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. That followed a third behind Winx in the G1 Doncaster and a second to Peeping in the G1 Coolmore Classsic. Her only other run at this level was a third to Politeness in the G1 Myer Classic last Spring. She's drawn horribly and the drop back to 1350m is a minor worry but she is easily the best placed at the w-f-a scale.

Music Magnate tackles G1 company for the first time here and is horribly placed at the weights and I think he'll be much better placed in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap in a fortnight. To make it worse he's drawn a horrible barrier but the stable is flying at the moment and can't be underestimated. His two previous third-up runs have yielded wins against Inz'n'out and Good Project. Two wins from two starts at 1400m.

Fell Swoop is overdue for a big win following narrow seconds in the G1 Oakleigh Plate to Flamberge and the G1 T. J. Smith Stakes behind Chautauqua. He missed a top four finish for the first time in his 15 start career last time out (below) in the G1 B.T.C. Cup but he had excuses. The quinella horses Malaguerra and Dothraki enjoyed much cosier runs so to be just over a length and a half off them at the end was sound. Drawn better here.

Delectation flashed home from last in the same race (above) to finish to finish eighth but was less than two and a half lengths off them at the end. The jockey ran out of room and was forced to take a hold at the 75m mark so he should have finished closer. The problem is he always does that and from gate two he's going to need luck again when he makes his run. I think he'd be better suited at Eagle Farm and drawn out wider.

Dothraki looked all over the winner (above) when he loomed at the furlong in that same G1 B.T.C. Cup but Malaguerra just worried him out of it. In four tries beyond 1200m he has only won once and that was two and a half years ago and I must confess I have major doubts as to whether he will run out a strong 1350m at this level. I also query whether he will get as cushy a run as he did a fortnight ago. I'm risking him.

Double figures the rest.

Charlie Boy almost caused an absolute boilover in this race last year (below) when a narrow second to Boban at big odds. He's drawn a lot better here too after starting from barrier 15 last year. The stable did score a big upset in Brisbane with Snippets Land last weekend. Two Blue has drawn wide but seeing she'll probably lead it isn't too big of a concern. She'll give her followers a good sight for a long way but whether she can hold them out in the final 100m is the query. 17 starts at the trip for just the one win but 12 placings! Scarlet Billows has the Darren Weir polish. That's probably the nicest thing I can say. She was sensationally backed last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes ($13 into $7) but took no real part after suffering interference from the riderless horse. Hooked can produce a big run when fresh and he should get a nice passage from that gate. It's interesting that he's $34 into $17 in early markets because when he won first-up last campaign in the G2 Tramway Stakes he was backed from $18 into $9. 

NOTE : Last year's winner Boban ($17) was the first horse to pay more than $6 since 2006. 14 of the last 19 winners have returned single figure odds since the race went to w-f-a in 1997. 13 had finished top three at their last start and 11 came via the G1 B.T.C. Cup.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Fell Swoop

DANGER  

7. Azkadellia

FOR EXOTICS

5. Charlie Boy

4. Hooked
1. Delectation

CHEERS TO WEIR

This guy is training three or four winners every weekend around Australia so let's look for a few that can help us fund the next shout.

Master Of Arts (Sandown Race 3 No. 2) made a wide run from well back and still managed to race away with the Listed Warrnambool Cup last start and he does look a promising stayer in the making. That was on a heavy track so the rain won't worry him. This race is much easier than that too and although he rises sharply in the weights they have engaged the claiming apprentice. 

Real Love (Doomben Race 4 No. 4) goes in again after getting us the chocolates last time out. I think the step up to 2200m only enhances her prospects because she was strong on the line the other day despite the fact they ran a track record. I can see her box seating here from barrier four and she so rarely runs a bad race. In nine runs at 2200m or further she has never missed a place including four wins.

Raw Impulse (Randwick Race 7 No. 8) was nominated for the G1 Doomben Cup last week but trainer Darren Weir bypassed it for this easier assignment. He rarely takes his horses to Sydney outside of the major carnivals so they're not mucking around. Lightly weighted and drawn well he's probably too short to be backing but he can be used as a banker in exotics and multis. His three runs/wins in this country have been outstanding.

Voodoo Lad (Morphettville Race 7 No. 12) is a five-time winner from just nine starts and has never missed a cheque including two placings behind the talented Artlee. He was heavily backed last start when racing for the first time in 13 months and he absolutely bolted in. Four of his five wins have come on affected surfaces so he'll appreciate the wet track. He gets weight from and/or draws inside all of his rivals.

Good punting!

G1 Doomben Cup and G1 Goodwood Day - 21.05.2016

Another two-state double this weekend with the G1 Doomben Cup in Brisbane and the G1 Goodwood in Adelaide.

Let's hope I go a bit better this week because last weekend I had more seconds than a stopwatch.

Who's Hot? 

Mick Kent is having a good month with seven winners from his last 16 runners.

He has runners tomorrow at Flemington and Morphettville.

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Doomben Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are are no early scratchings ***

Hauraki will be right in the finish here if he reproduces the effort that saw him finish second (below) in the G1 Ranvet three runs back. The fact can't be ignored that he hasn't won for more than a year but he has placed six times at Stakes level including three G1's. The blinkers go on for the first time here and maybe that will switch him on. He may have needed the hit-out last start because he was four weeks between runs. Inside gate a plus.

It's Somewhat beat his stablemate Hauraki home in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes two runs back but it may just be that he handled the conditions better. The wide gate is against him especially if he can't get across into a good position before they leave the straight the first time. Having said that he was one of the runs of the race last start in the G2 Hollindale Stakes and I loved the way he ran through the line despite not having the best of runs.

Volkstok'n'barrell caught the eye making good late ground last time out in a slowly run G2 Hollindale Stakes and I get the sense he can peak here. He's a two-time winner over 2000m at this level having claimed the G1 N.Z. Stakes three starts back and last year's G1 Rosehill Guineas (below) beating Preferment. Jockey Blake Shinn is attempting to win this race for the third year in a row.

Noble Protector comes off a placing to the highly rated Azkadellia in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. She's six weeks between runs and jumps to 2000m but she did run second to Contributer at this trip in the G3 Coongy at her first start in this country. She seems to be getting back to near her best but she's going to need to be because they don't just hand out G1's. Has not won since March last year.

Our Ivanhowe was only a length and a half off Preferment (below) in a leader dominated G1 Australian Cup two starts ago. Anthony Freedman has won this race once and his brother Lee twice and they have enjoyed good Black Type success over the last month too with Cool Chap, Super One and Malaguerra. The firm track is against him though. 

14 of the last 18 winners have paid single figure odds but let's take a look at some of the rougher chances for exotics.

Spiritjim was O.K. in the G2 Hollindale Stakes given he's never won below 2000m and it was his first run in almost seven months. On his best European form he'd just about win this and trainer Chris Waller has won this race twice before. Jockey Hugh Bowman flies back from Japan for the ride but the last winner to have finished worse than sixth at their previous run was Eye Of The Sky in 1990. 

Leebaz ran second in this race two years ago but in 18 subsequent runs has been unplaced 12 times. This time last year he won his first G2 Hollindale Stakes but then just a fortnight later finished a dismal second last in this very race. That just about sums this bloke up - good enough on his day but constantly mixing his form. I think he should be seeing a whole team of therapists. 

Messene led all the way to win the Listed Wagga Cup at his last start. That was his first win in 17 starts breaking a drought that stretched back more than two years. That's not the form line to win a G1 race in my never humble opinion.  Lady Le Fay was also nominated for a much easier race in Sydney this weekend but the Waller stable has accepted for this so that may be something of a lead. Her last two runs were her only two at this distance and they were both good. Maurus hasn't been helped by the barrier draw but his last start win was dynamic albeit in much weaker company. He is the only horse in the field to have won at Doomben before.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Volkstok'n'barrell

DANGER  

2. Hauraki

FOR EXOTICS

5. It's Somewhat
3. Our Ivanhowe
8. Spiritjim
7. Maurus

MORPHETTVILLE

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day. ***

The Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Griante and Daytona Grey are early scratchings ***

Black Heart Bart was unlucky not to win last start (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes when held up for a run at a crucial stage. He ran fourth in this race last year as favourite and that's the only time he's missed a top two finish in six runs at 1200m. He's been rock solid in the betting since markets opened and is well drawn and well weighted at just 3kg over the minimum. He'll be hard to beat.

Supido is an exciting young horse on an upward spiral with six consecutive wins to his name. This is a major step up in class compared to the races he's been competing in lately but he does get some weight relief from his better credentialled rivals. Trainer Mick Kent has already tasted G1 success this Adelaide Carnival with Abbey Marie.

Under The Louvre has started at single figure odds in 11 of his last 12 runs and has only won once and that was 14 months ago. Having said that he hasn't finished worse than sixth in that time and on six occasions was less than a length off the winner. He loves 1200m with six wins and five placings from 13 starts. Trainer Robert Smerdon has won this race twice before and this bloke did finish third in this race last year.

Admiral meets Supido 3.5kg better off for a narrow defeat last start. It was a good run given he hadn't started for 73 days. He's never been beaten in four second-up appearances. With 14 career victories to his name he is the winningest horse in the field - not bad for a 4-y-o having just his 21st start tomorrow. 

The Quarterback has already won a major this prep with victory (below) in the G1 Newmarket Handicap when he ran past Black Heart Bart and Chautauqua. Following that he was far from disgraced when a flashing one and a half length fifth in the G1 William Reid Stakes. He has to lump a stack of weight here but he does have the inside barrier to offset that. He'll need luck though because he gets back in his races.

Since this race changed to set weights plus penalties conditions in 2007 five of the last nine winners have returned $21+ including three of the last five.

Flamberge won this race last year and has won two more big ones since with back-to-back wins in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and the G1 William Reid Stakes at the start of this prep. The wide gate and big weight are concerns and he was pretty plain last start. Sheidel went within a whisker of claiming the G1 Sangster Stakes last start. That was her fourth start at 1200m and the other three were all wins. She has no weight here and her overall record reads 19 starts for 12 wins, four placings, two fourths and a fifth. Sooboog is another with no weight plus he has a good draw and his last start run was enormous after he stumbled at the start and came out a clear last. They ran the final 600m in 33.96 seconds so his closing sectionals must have been phenomenal. 

Fast 'n' Rocking has drawn the car park but he does swoop in his races so he's probably better off drawn out wide. He'll be storming home if as expected there is plenty of speed up front. Still I think they would have preferred to have drawn closer to the fence. He doesn't win often either. Super One was unbeaten in four starts in Singapore before coming to Australia. Last time out he broke through for his first win here at his third start when leading all the way to win the G3 McKay Stakes at this track. He's a go forward horse drawn wide with a lot of speed runners drawn inside him. That makes it tough. Big Money won a Rosehill trial 11 days ago and he obviously did enough to convince master horseman Robert Thompson to make the trip to Adelaide for just one ride. He's not the worst $34 chance I've ever seen. Miss Promiscuity was in good form before she lost the rider last start in the G1 Sangster Stakes. She looked like she had a lot to give in that race too and prior to that she'd beaten The Quarterback and meets him 2.5kg better off here. Another one at crazy odds.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

3. Black Heart Bart

DANGER  

15. Supido

FOR EXOTICS

2. The Quarterback
18. Miss Promiscuity
12. Admiral
11. Under The Louvre

OTHER BETS

Spieth (Rosehill Race 3 No. 4) ran second on debut to Secret Agenda before winning his maiden and then came from near last to finish close-up in a G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude. He went for a spell and was simply outclassed fresh in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint before bolting in at Kembla Grange last start. He was first emergency in the last in Brisbane and would have gained a start but they've elected to take the easier option at home.

Tuscan Sling (Morphettville Race 6 No. 2) will find this a lot easier than her solid last start fifth in the G1 Sangster Stakes. That was just her second run back from an eight week break so she should be ready to peak here. She's won both her other two starts at the trip beating the likes of Reldas and Azkadellia and she's really well placed at the set weights plus penalties conditions.

Glorious Sinndar (Flemington Race 7 No. 10) has notched back-to-back wins since transferring to the stable of Darren Weir and is four wins from four starts at 2300m and beyond. A lot of these older horses have had their chances so I'm looking for a young horse on the up at a little bit of value. He gets 5.5kg from the favourite and I expect he will be making his own luck up on the speed.

Rageese (Doomben Race 8 No. 3) is another who has really seemed to turn the corner since linking up with the Weir yard. Like his aforementioned stablemate he has put two wins together including a devastating four length demolition job in Adelaide last start. He's always shown ability with a second to Pride Of Dubai in a G1 Sires Produce, a fourth to Exosphere in a G1 Golden Rose and a fifth (below) to Press Statement in a G1 Caulfield Guineas.

Good punting!

G1 B.T.C. Cup Day - 14.05.2016

Hard to know where to look tomorrow with the G1 B.T.C. Cup at Doomben, the G1 S.A. Derby at Morphettville and a stack of good races at the stand-alone meeting at Scone.

For the first time in weeks we're looking at dry tracks everywhere too.

Who's Hot? 

Matthew McGuren has had only 13 mounts in the month of May but has mustered six winners and two seconds. All-up over the last three weeks he's had 26 rides for 11 winners and six placegetters.

He has six rides tomorrow at the Gold Coast.

DOOMBEN

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a mostly sunny day. ***

The B.T.C. Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-fa)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are are no early scratchings ***

Japonisme was rock solid in the G1 Lightning Stakes (below), the G1 Newmarket Handicap and the G1 William Reid Stakes before breaking through for an overdue win last start in the G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint. Gets a nice pull in the weights from the older horses too at w-f-a and that Chautauqua form is looking pretty good now. Great barrier and G1 winning trainer and jockey. Lots of positives and he has been the subject of a good push ($5 into $4.20) in early markets. Should get the run of the race from barrier three.

Counterattack just failed to run down his stablemate Japonisme in the previously mentioned G2 Arrowfield 3YO Sprint and the third horse Takedown subsequently won last weekend's G3 Gold Coast Guineas. He's capable on his day but he can mix his form a bit and from the awkward barrier I see him being back and wide in a race without much tempo which is going to make his task that much harder. On the plus side hoop Sam Clipperton is in G1 winning form.

Fell Swoop looked just O.K. winning the G2 Victory Stakes last start but he was four weeks between runs on that occasion and I expect him to strip fitter here. He also has form around Chautauqua with a second (below) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes. That was the second time this prep he's just missed in a major after a narrow defeat in the G1 Oakleigh Plate so he's due for a change of luck. One of only three horses in the race to have won previously on this tricky Doomben circuit.

Dothraki was solid behind Chautauqua and Fell Swoop (above) in the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes and prior to that he was third in the G1 Galaxy. His first-up run in the G1 Oakleigh Plate was sound too because he drew the outside of 17 and got trapped five deep with no cover. I note that jockey Blake Shinn sticks solid and he did ride both Malaguerra and Charlie Boy at their last few starts. Maps well from the inside barrier and with rail going back to the true position at Doomben that could be a big advantage.

Delectation is another who comes via that G1 T.J. Smith Stakes (above) and he didn't have a lot of luck close to the line or on the point of the turn so his five length seventh was actually a lot better than it reads. Let's not forget that back at Flemington during the Spring Carnival he won the G1 Darley Classic leaving the likes of Chautauqua, Terravista and Buffering, Srikandi, Flamberge and Boban in his wake. Five of the last seven winners of this race have returned $12 or better for the win. Rough chance.

Malaguerra didn't enjoy a lot of luck last start (below) in the G1 All Aged Stakes so I'd put the red biro through that run. He had won six of his last seven before that with the only "miss" being a narrow second. He's really turned the corner since being gelded and could easily bounce back here. He's had three wins and a second from five tries at the trip and he does look like he's going to get a lovely trail here one or two pairs back from the leaders. One of the major contenders.

Artlee is going to need luck to come at the right time here because he's a get back, run on type who has drawn inside so he's likely to get buried back in the field here. It's been his undoing at his last two starts because he hasn't been able to get into the race until it was all but over. Still there was a lot to like about the way he finished off behind Fell Swoop last start but I think he'll be much better suited in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap in four weeks time when he gets out to 1400m on a big track with a light weight.

Charlie Boy won the G3 BRC Sprint at this track last year before finishing a narrow second to Boban in the G1 Doomben 10,000. He's minus the services of jockey Blake Shinn who has piloted him in seven of his last nine runs including his two wins. The tempo is against him however as he does like to get back and charge home. Stratum Star is on a G1 Stradbroke Handicap trail and may find the trip a bit short as he's never won below 1300m. He is however a G1 winner and only three other runners here can boast that - Delectation, Japonisme and the Kiwi visitor Sacred Star. The latter has performed well in Queensland in the past with four starts for a win in a G2 Q.T.C. Cup, a fifth in a G1 Doomben 10,000, and a fifth and a sixth in the last two G1 Stradbroke Handicaps. He will love the firm track after striking a few rain affected surfaces last campaign in N.Z and not many know their way around Doomben better than jockey Jimmy Byrne. Target In Sight hasn't won for more than a year but hasn't run too many bad races in between. He always seems to be thereabouts at the finish in lesser races but it's hard to see him figuring here. Still he's not the worst.

I think the other three will struggle at this level. There capable types and good enough on their day but this might be a bridge too far.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Fell Swoop

DANGER  

11. Japonisme

FOR EXOTICS

4. Dothraki
6. Artlee

8. Malaguerra

1. Delectation

OTHER BETS

Real Love (Doomben Race 4 No. 6) is in form with six consecutive top three finishes. I thought she was excellent last start when dropping back to 2000m just six weeks after a gutsy third (below) in a gruelling G2 Adelaide Cup. I'm wary when Darren Weir brings just a handful of horses to Queensland because the last time he did it Lucky Hussler won a Magic Millions Cup and Mahuta won a Magic Millions 3YO Guineas forty minutes later. She is really well weighted here too on a 54kg minimum.

Charlevoix (Morphettville Race 7 No. 4) could give trainer Mick Kent the S.A 3-y-o Classic double here after his filly Abbey Marie took out the G1 Australasian Oaks last Saturday. Like his stablemate this bloke is very lightly raced. At his last run he stepped up to the mile and a half for the first time at just his fourth career start and absolutely brained them in the Listed Galilee Series Final. Prior to that he was only a couple of lengths of Tally in the G2 Alister Clark Stakes (below) and that horse then franked the form by running a super race in the G1 Australian Derby.

Inz'n'out (Scone Race 8 No. 7) is getting another chance after just missing for us last start. He was narrowly beaten on that occasion and looked to me like he needed the run and he did concede the winner a kilo and a half. I like the outside draw too because as an on-pace runner he can now take his time to get across rather than having to be bustled from an inside gate to take up a position. They only have to negotiate one turn form the 1100m chute at Scone anyway. He's building an impressive overall record and has previous form around the likes of Good Project, Music Magnate, Fell Swoop and Winx!

Good punting!

G1 Sangster Classic Day - 07.05.2016

Adelaide is in the spotlight with two G1's this week but we also have a good meeting at the Gold Coast with many Brisbane Winter Carnival hopefuls going around.

It will pay to keep a watch on the weather though because Morphettville is tipped to get a bit of rain starting tomorrow morning.

Who's Hot? 

Matthew Dunn isn't a household name but he'll be well known soon if he can maintain his current strike rate because in the past three weeks he's trained 13 winners from 38 starters at 34.2%. 

He has quite a few runners tomorrow but his best hopes of success seem to be Londehero (Gold Coast Race 1 No. 6) and Explosive One (Gold Coast Race 2 No. 16).

MORPHETTVILLE

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a high chance of rain developing during the day.***

The Sangster Classic (Group 1, 1200m, fillies and mares w-fa)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Great betting race with bookies offering $7 the field but several of the key chances have drawn poorly most notably Don't Doubt Mamma (15), Badawiya (17), Tempt Me Not (18), Sabatini (19), Miss Promiscuity (21) and Vezelay (23). With so many on-pace runners drawn wide it could be a mad dash early which could suit the swoopers.

Petits Filous has won five from seven. I'm inclined to forgive her two failures because the first time was her first try at G1 open company and her last start was her first the Sydney way of going. She's gone up favourite here so obviously there is money to suggest she can bounce back and she's going to get a lot better run than many of her rivals jumping from the inside half of the field. Yet to win beyond 1100m. 

Griante was impressive two starts back (below) winning the G1 Galaxy. Prior to that she was unlucky in that red hot G1 Oakleigh Plate which has produced five subsequent winners in Flamberge, Fell Swoop, Reldas, The Quarterback and this mare. She is well placed here at w-f-a if you overlook her last start sixth where she went up 7kg and conceded 4kg to the five who beat her home. The good barrier is a big plus in the capacity field. Any rain helps.

Don't Doubt Mamma has two wins and second from three runs this prep and you could make a case she should be unbeaten because she couldn't have won from where she was in that farcically run G2 Kewney Stakes. Her last start win was brave given she was six weeks between runs and 1400m back to 1100m but the wide gate doesn't help her chances.

All the rest are double figures odds and only two winners have returned better than $9 since this race went to G1 status in 2005. I'll start with those drawn poorly.

Badawiya struggled last start (below) on that sticky Randwick track but still managed to beat half the field home in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes. Three starts back she beat Don't Doubt Mamma at level weights although the pattern of the race may have flattered her. Her trainer Mick Price has won this race three times previously.

Tempt Me Not will be hoping the rain comes because she's very effective on soft tracks. Her last three runs on a wet surface have yielded a win and seconds to Japonisme and Secret Agenda. Glyn Schofield rode her on all three occasions and he makes the trip to Adelaide to ride her here.

Miss Promiscuity has won her last lumping big weights following a good first-up fourth in the Listed Bob Hoysted Handicap. She chased home Malaguerra and Thermal Current that day and beat home Beau Rada and they all won at their next start. Three wins and three placings at the journey. Craig Williams jumps off to ride Griante. 

Vezelay finished in front of Griante and Sultry Feeling last start but meets them worse off here at the weights. All three of her wins were at 1100m and she has just one third from six attempts at this distance. Chris Parnham replaces the suspended Damien Oliver who copped a 29 day ban at Warrnambool on Thursday after failing an alcohol test.

Sabatini has won twice second-up from three attempts and she wasn't far off Miss Promiscuity fresh but she meets her 1.5kg better off here. She's been freshened up for this with a six week break because that's seems to be when she races best with two wins and two seconds from four starts. 

Stablemate Pittsburgh Flyer was super first-up (below) in the G1 Oakleigh Plate but her two subsequent runs have been poor. She did have excuses because she got into early grief in the G1 Galaxy and last start she tried to come through the quicksand on the rail. Jockey Shayne Cahill has won this race twice with his first victory coming 22 years ago on Tarare in 1994. 

Of those who fared better in the barrier draw Tuscan Sling disappointed as favourite last time out but she was eight weeks between runs and dropping back sharply in distance. Previously she had finished a narrow second in the G3 Mannerism Stakes. Four horses from that event - Azkadellia, Miss Rose De Lago, Wawail and Felicienne - have since won Black Type races. 

Scarlet Billows has four wins and three second placings at the 1200m. Her last start win was good and prior to that she was solid if not spectacular behind Flamberge in the G1 William Reid Stakes. She is dropping back from 1400m but she's a four-time winner at this trip and has been runner-up three times. 

Shiedel came over from W.A. with big wraps after winning 11 of her first 15 starts and placing twice. She broke through for her first win in three starts for new trainers David Hayes and Tom Dabernig last time out in the Listed Bel Esprit Stakes. That was against all comers so she's back to fillies and mares grade here and she's three from three at 1200m. 

There's still more you could make case for. Super Cash (1E) needs a scratching to scrape into the field but she wasn't far off Don't Doubt Mamma last start. Precious Gem has placed five times at this distance but has never won in eight attempts but she towelled up the boys last start in the Listed Anniversary Vase. I Love It ran third in this race last year and has been nibbled at ($26 into $18) in early markets. Both runs this preparation have been good. Sultry Feeling wasn't suited by the lack of tempo last start but before that she'd won back-to-back G3's with her runs spaced. Four week gap into this. Wawail isn't the worst but she can mix her form. I haven't mentioned the other four but there all capable mares on their day.

Tough race.

I could be totally wrong here because it's such a wide open race but for the record...

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Griante

DANGER  

18. Don't Doubt Mamma

FOR EXOTICS

17. Badawiya
19. Petits Filous
10. Tuscan Sling
14. Vezelay

OTHER BETS

Self Esteem (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 4) has been the subject of early speculation ($12 to $9) and the stable did win seven races during the Winter Carnival last year. She's been competitive at her last two starts in races like the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and G1 Australian Oaks. At $9 I think she's a super each way bet especially given the fact that she will be making her own luck up on the speed. The wide barrier isn't great but that should be offset by the engagement of jockey Blake Shinn.

Hauraki (Gold Coast Race 7 No. 2) is a much better horse on a firm surface so I'm putting a line through his last run. His previous form was super with two placings to Winx over unsuitable trips before just missing the in-form The United States in the G1 Ranvet Stakes. This is much easier and the firming track only enhances his prospects. From barrier two jockey James McDonald should enjoy a beautiful run in transit and he has chosen this bloke over the other two Godolphin runners.

Good punting!