The G1 Golden Slipper aside this has been a great day for the bookies in recent years.
Four of the past five favourites in the G1 George Ryder Stakes failed to run a place with the four winners returning $11 or better. Similarly in the G1 Ranvet Stakes four of the last five favourites were beaten with three of the winners paying $13 or better.
No top elect has won the G1 Galaxy in the last 13 years with eight of the winners saluting at double figure odds including the last six in a row and four G1 Rosehill Guineas favourites have been rolled in the last six years including the likes of Shoot Out, Silent Achiever, Dissident and Hallowed Crown.
Four of the past five favourites in the G1 George Ryder Stakes failed to run a place with the four winners returning $11 or better. Similarly in the G1 Ranvet Stakes four of the last five favourites were beaten with three of the winners paying $13 or better.
No top elect has won the G1 Galaxy in the last 13 years with eight of the winners saluting at double figure odds including the last six in a row and four G1 Rosehill Guineas favourites have been rolled in the last six years including the likes of Shoot Out, Silent Achiever, Dissident and Hallowed Crown.
Who's Hot?
It's not surprising to see Gai Waterhouse gaining momentum as we get deeper into the Sydney Carnival.
In the last three weeks she's tasted Black Type success with Scarlet Rain, Kiss And Make Up, English, Hippopus and Thyme For Roses. Let's not forget too that she's won six G1 Golden Slippers and seven G1 Ranvet Stakes.
Of her numerous runners tomorrow her best chances on paper appear to be Dee I Cee (Race 2 No. 9), Speak Fondly (Race 3 No. 5), Kiss And Make Up (Race 7 No. 4), English (Race 8 No. 14) and Ecuador (Race 10 No. 3).
ROSEHILL
Golden Slipper (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Extreme Choice was impressive (below) winning the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes last start. He sat up near the lead in a fast run race and was wide without cover and then had the audacity to boot away from them on the turn. He then seemed to half pull-up until Flying Artie loomed on the outside and he picked himself up again and won comfortably. He's won in Sydney before but the question is can he peak twice in one preparation?
Flying Artie didn't have the best of runs (above) when second behind his aforementioned stablemate last start. He drew a dreadful barrier (for the second start in a row) and was forced to race back and wide then he copped a good old fashioned hip-and-shoulder on the turn and was speared off the track. Despite that he stuck to his guns all the way down the straight and finished more than four lengths in front of the third horse. No Sydney experience is the concern.
Only one winner in the last eight years returned more than $6.50 for the win.
Flying Artie didn't have the best of runs (above) when second behind his aforementioned stablemate last start. He drew a dreadful barrier (for the second start in a row) and was forced to race back and wide then he copped a good old fashioned hip-and-shoulder on the turn and was speared off the track. Despite that he stuck to his guns all the way down the straight and finished more than four lengths in front of the third horse. No Sydney experience is the concern.
Only one winner in the last eight years returned more than $6.50 for the win.
Kiss And Make Up is the fresh horse on the scene who seems to be peaking at the right time. He defeated the previously unbeaten Capitalist last start in the G2 Todman Stakes and they ran slightly faster time than the G3 quality handicap for filies and mares on the same day. His mother ran second in this race in 2005. She was also trained by Gai Waterhouse who is shooting for her fourth win in this race in the last five years and her seventh overall.
Capitalist was beaten for the first time last start but if you liked him prior I wouldn't be too discouraged because he pulled up lame. Sepoy suffered his first defeat in the same race five years ago but bounced back to win the big one. The last four boys to win this race came off a top two finish in the G2 Todman Stakes.
Astern has drawn horribly but so did Vancouver last year. James McDonald rode both Telperion and Calliope at their last starts but he is sticking solid with this bloke which is a good sign. It's been a bleak period for Goldolphin with Holler their only G1 winner since Magic Hurricane claimed the G1 Metropolitan last October.
Of the rest Good Standing ran slick time when winning the G2 Skyline Stakes last start but only one winner in the last 18 years (Stratum, 2005) has come via that race. He's still learning but he has a lot of ability and this bloke Hugh Bowman can ride a bit I'm told. Calliope is the best of the fillies but in my never humble opinion I think the boys have the edge on the girls this year. She does herself no favours with her racing pattern and the wide barrier will just make it even harder. Defcon unleashed a paralyzing final 400m to grab the G3 Black Opal Stakes last start but that's a level below this and he might have peaked one run too soon. Brett Prebble will probably have to snag him back from the awkward gate which will make it difficult. Scarlet Rain is unbeaten and has the Waterhouse polish but she has has to contend with a bad barrier draw. Tommy Berry did manage to do that last year on Vancouver though and he reunites with her tomorrow.
Capitalist was beaten for the first time last start but if you liked him prior I wouldn't be too discouraged because he pulled up lame. Sepoy suffered his first defeat in the same race five years ago but bounced back to win the big one. The last four boys to win this race came off a top two finish in the G2 Todman Stakes.
Of the rest Good Standing ran slick time when winning the G2 Skyline Stakes last start but only one winner in the last 18 years (Stratum, 2005) has come via that race. He's still learning but he has a lot of ability and this bloke Hugh Bowman can ride a bit I'm told. Calliope is the best of the fillies but in my never humble opinion I think the boys have the edge on the girls this year. She does herself no favours with her racing pattern and the wide barrier will just make it even harder. Defcon unleashed a paralyzing final 400m to grab the G3 Black Opal Stakes last start but that's a level below this and he might have peaked one run too soon. Brett Prebble will probably have to snag him back from the awkward gate which will make it difficult. Scarlet Rain is unbeaten and has the Waterhouse polish but she has has to contend with a bad barrier draw. Tommy Berry did manage to do that last year on Vancouver though and he reunites with her tomorrow.
Locky's Selections
BEST
1. Extreme Choice
4. Kiss And Make Up
1. Extreme Choice
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
8. Good Standing
7. Capitalist
2. Flying Artie
5. Astern
*** There are no early scratchings ***
IF THE FAVOURITES ARE STRUGGLING...
8. Good Standing
2. Flying Artie
5. Astern
George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Winx picks herself. She's won her last seven in a row picking up four G1's along the way including the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) last start. She can be ridden forward or back, can win from 1300m to 2400m and do it right or left handed. Hugh Bowman has ridden her seven times for six wins. The only possible worry could be that she is dropping back in distance
First Seal has never been beaten by Winx. They have met five times and First Seal has finished in front on every occasion. The problem is in 10 subsequent starts Winx has eight wins and a second. First Seal has had five runs for just the one win and four misses at odds of $3.50 or less. The bookies have erected a shrine in her honour.
Press Statement gets weight from everyone here under the w-f-a scale and although he found trouble last start (below) in the G1 Randwick Guineas I thought he was out in enough time to win if he was good enough. This is his first test in open company and although I'm a big fan at the short quote I'm going to take him on. I wouldn't be surprised if he measured up though.
First Seal has never been beaten by Winx. They have met five times and First Seal has finished in front on every occasion. The problem is in 10 subsequent starts Winx has eight wins and a second. First Seal has had five runs for just the one win and four misses at odds of $3.50 or less. The bookies have erected a shrine in her honour.
Kermadec ran well fresh in a race that wasn't really run to suit. This will be his last run before he attempts to defend the G1 Doncaster Mile so he'll be close to peak fitness. He's a two-time G1 winner at the mile and second-up last prep he beat all bar Complacent in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes. No wins in three starts here at Rosehill is a bit of a worry but he's top class.
Turn Me Loose is probably the only horse here who can get Winx out of her comfort zone. He has the capacity to cruise at a high tempo and then quicken as he did (below) when winning the G1 Emirates Stakes. He'll give the favourite something to chase. The wide draw isn't that much of a problem given he's easily going to cross and lead this lot. If he gives a kick on the turn...
Hucklebuck overraced badly last start and if you can forgive that run his first two runs this campaign were quite pleasing. He's won a G1 Emirates Stakes but that was a handicap and this is w-f-a so it is a lot tougher but he's the one at big odds that I think could run into the trifecta. A big turnaround in form wouldn't be a complete shock.
Happy Clapper was thrown in at the deep end last start and acquitted himself well. Still I think this might be a bridge too far. He'll be better in the G1 Doncaster Mile in a fortnight when he gets back to handicap conditions. Tinto is a good mare but she's facing some stiff opposition here. I'm looking to others.
Hucklebuck overraced badly last start and if you can forgive that run his first two runs this campaign were quite pleasing. He's won a G1 Emirates Stakes but that was a handicap and this is w-f-a so it is a lot tougher but he's the one at big odds that I think could run into the trifecta. A big turnaround in form wouldn't be a complete shock.
Happy Clapper was thrown in at the deep end last start and acquitted himself well. Still I think this might be a bridge too far. He'll be better in the G1 Doncaster Mile in a fortnight when he gets back to handicap conditions. Tinto is a good mare but she's facing some stiff opposition here. I'm looking to others.
Locky's Selections
BEST
5. Winx
5. Winx
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
3. Hucklebuck
1. Turn Me Loose
FOR EXOTICS
2. Kermadec
IF THE FAVOURITES ARE STRUGGLING...
Storm The Stars (Rosehill Race 4 No. 7) was pretty good last start (below) at his first run in this country at an unsuitable distance in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. He just got left flat footed when they skipped on the point of the turn and he never really got warm. Still he stuck to his guns all the way down the straight and stepping up to 2000m tomorrow will suit him much better.
Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 6 No. 3) was hard to miss (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas last time out. He jumped well and was in a good position early but he just got run off his feet and shuffled back to near last approaching the home turn. If you watched the race you can't have missed his final 400m (even Stevie Wonder saw it) and he has already claimed a G1 Spring Champion Stakes at 2000m.
Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 6 No. 3) was hard to miss (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas last time out. He jumped well and was in a good position early but he just got run off his feet and shuffled back to near last approaching the home turn. If you watched the race you can't have missed his final 400m (even Stevie Wonder saw it) and he has already claimed a G1 Spring Champion Stakes at 2000m.
Fell Swoop (Rosehill Race 8 No. 13) just missed (below) at his first try at the top level when a narrow second in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and he was slightly held up at a crucial stage so you could make an argumen that he should have won. That was his first defeat in five runs and just his second in his last ten starts. They keep raising the bar and he keeps responding every time so aside from being talented he's also very genuine.
Perignon (Rosehill Race 9 No. 10) was dynamic first-up sprouting wins the final 100m to nab them on the line. She's been kept on the fresh side again for this second-up run (five weeks in between) because that's when she seems to race best. This seems to be her best distance too (6:2-2-0) and she just missed Speak Fondly at this track and trip in the G2 Magic Night Stakes this time last year.
Sadler's Lake (Rosehill Race 10 No. 5) was a dynamic winner fresh last preparation. He's had two trials in readiness for this assignment and the blinkers go on so he's obviously wound up to have a red hot crack at this. He should get into a lovely position in the run from the inside gate. Three wins and a second from four starts on affected ground.
Good punting!
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