There's so many good races over the next few days I don't think I can preview them all.
I think I'll ring the Gambling Helpline and see if they can sort me out with a few tips.
I assume that's what they do.
I think I'll ring the Gambling Helpline and see if they can sort me out with a few tips.
I assume that's what they do.
Who's Hot?
It's been a good two weeks for brothers Lee & Anthony Freedman with five winners and two placings from their last 12 runners.
They have three runners this weekend - at Cranbourne tonight they saddle up Strykum (Race 6 No. 2) and at Flemington tomorrow they have Guardini (Race 4 No. 8) and Our Ivanhowe (Race 7 No. 5).
FLEMINGTON
Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
*** Mourinho is an early scratching ***
Bow Creek was unlucky fresh when blocked for a run but he atoned second-up with a big win in the G2 Peter Young Stakes where again he had to overcome trouble. That last start effort has seen him installed a solid favourite here but history is against him because only one favourite has been successful in the last 11 years. Still the one to beat.
Our Ivanhowe was the unlucky runner behind Bow Creek last start and the step up in trip and the longer straight appeal to me. Lee Freedman has won this race twice and he should get a lovely run from the inside barrier but he would have preferred a bit more rain. His third to Mongolian Khan in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup says he's good enough.
Our Ivanhowe was the unlucky runner behind Bow Creek last start and the step up in trip and the longer straight appeal to me. Lee Freedman has won this race twice and he should get a lovely run from the inside barrier but he would have preferred a bit more rain. His third to Mongolian Khan in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup says he's good enough.
Preferment won the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) at this track and distance last Spring. That came after a second-up win in the G2 Hill Stakes where he improved dramatically after an average run first-up and he's at a similar stage here. I thought he was one of the runs of the race first-up when fourth to Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes.
Rising Romance didn't see a lot of room in the straight last start in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and should have finished closer with a clear passage. She's a bit like that however in that she does tend to find trouble and her last three appearances third-up she's been beaten and twice as a short priced favourite.
Suavito looks like the trip will suit here because she just appeared a little dour when third last time out in the G1 Futurity Stakes. Her prior win in the G1 Orr Stakes first-up after more than 10 months off the scene with injury showed she's still got a zest for racing. She's a two-time winner at Flemington including the G2 Blamey Stakes on this day last year.
Only three horses in the last 20 years have won at double figure odds but quite a few have placed so we'll take a look at them for exotics.
Fenway beat all bar Bow Creek last start in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and at the end of her last prep she was a narrow second to Politeness here in a G1 Myer Classic. She'll get a great run from the good barrier draw. Happy Trails has had two runs to get fit and third run in is when he traditionally peaks. At this stage of his prep last Spring he was just three quarters of a length off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and last Autumn he finished third in this race. Awesome Rock has only had three runs beyond a mile but they've all been super. He was second to Stratum Star in the G3 Coongy last October before winning a G3 1800m race at Flemington on Cup Day. His last start run in the G2 Peter Young Stakes was solid. Almoonqith was in the same race but was just left with too much to do. He hadn't been seen for more than three months and went straight to 1800m and then he drew poorly and was forced to go back. Despite all that only Bow Creek and Rising Romance ran a faster final 1000m. Three wins and a second from five second-up appearances. Extra Zero ran a narrow second (below) in this race last year and was less than a length and a half behind Preferment at this track and trip (above) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last Spring. He is consistent and always thereabouts but he's only won once since claiming the (time honoured) Listed Albury Cup in March of 2012.
Suavito looks like the trip will suit here because she just appeared a little dour when third last time out in the G1 Futurity Stakes. Her prior win in the G1 Orr Stakes first-up after more than 10 months off the scene with injury showed she's still got a zest for racing. She's a two-time winner at Flemington including the G2 Blamey Stakes on this day last year.
Only three horses in the last 20 years have won at double figure odds but quite a few have placed so we'll take a look at them for exotics.
Fenway beat all bar Bow Creek last start in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and at the end of her last prep she was a narrow second to Politeness here in a G1 Myer Classic. She'll get a great run from the good barrier draw. Happy Trails has had two runs to get fit and third run in is when he traditionally peaks. At this stage of his prep last Spring he was just three quarters of a length off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and last Autumn he finished third in this race. Awesome Rock has only had three runs beyond a mile but they've all been super. He was second to Stratum Star in the G3 Coongy last October before winning a G3 1800m race at Flemington on Cup Day. His last start run in the G2 Peter Young Stakes was solid. Almoonqith was in the same race but was just left with too much to do. He hadn't been seen for more than three months and went straight to 1800m and then he drew poorly and was forced to go back. Despite all that only Bow Creek and Rising Romance ran a faster final 1000m. Three wins and a second from five second-up appearances. Extra Zero ran a narrow second (below) in this race last year and was less than a length and a half behind Preferment at this track and trip (above) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last Spring. He is consistent and always thereabouts but he's only won once since claiming the (time honoured) Listed Albury Cup in March of 2012.
Locky's Selections
BEST
2. Preferment
6. Bow Creek
2. Preferment
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
8. Awesome Rock
5. Our Ivanhowe
10. Suavito
9. Rising Romance
*** Tiger Tees is an early scratching ***
OTHER BETS
Super Cash (Flemington Race 3 No. 9) ran second at massive odds in the Listed Cap D'Antibes Stakes at her only appearnce at this course and distance last September. She came from near last at the 800m and ran past all bar the talented Petit Filous. Resumed with a good closing third in the G3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes.
Stratum Star (Flemington Race 4 No. 2) won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) third run in last campaign. Third run back this time last year he was a half length third in the G1 Australian Guineas over the Flemington mile. It took a smart one in Turn Me Loose to hold him off last start in the G1 Futurity Stakes. This is much easier
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 9) meets some quality opposition here but she's drawn well and gets right down in the weights. She's recaptured some of her old form since being transferred to trainer John Thompson four starts ago and 10 of the last 12 winners of this event have returned between $7.50 and $17. Jockey Kathy O'Hara won her only G1 four years ago and she won the G3 Kembla Grange Classic today aboard Single Gaze so she's riding well.
8. Awesome Rock
5. Our Ivanhowe
10. Suavito
9. Rising Romance
Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)
*** Tiger Tees is an early scratching ***
Chautauqua has had seven starts at Flemington for four wins and three seconds and all were in Black Type races. Granted his three defeats were all at G1 level but he had excuses on each occasion be it traffic and/or tempo. His last-to-first win (below) in the G1 Lightning Stakes three weeks ago was blistering. Seven of the last 10 winners carried 56kg or more.
Japonisme is the young horse on the rise. He's had just the two runs at G1 level but both were down the Flemington straight for a win (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and his last start third (above) in the G1 Lightning Stakes. Trainer Chris Waller won this race last year with Brazen Beau off an almost identical lead-up.
Japonisme is the young horse on the rise. He's had just the two runs at G1 level but both were down the Flemington straight for a win (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and his last start third (above) in the G1 Lightning Stakes. Trainer Chris Waller won this race last year with Brazen Beau off an almost identical lead-up.
Delectation will be better suited at the 1200m here than he was by the 1000m of the G1 Lightning Stakes last start and gets in with no weight on his back. He won the G1 Darley Classic at this course and distance last November leaving the likes of Chautauqua, Terravista, Buffering and Srikandi in his wake.
Counterattack wasn't far off Japonisme (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at this track and trip last November and meets him 2.5kg better off here. He drops to 50kg here and he's never carried less than 56kg in his 12 start career so he'll feel like he's on holidays. Four of the last eight winners were 3-y-o's.
They've scared away the rest.
The Quarterback goes well at Flemington (10:3-0-4) and at the trip (6:2-1-2). He hit the line really well (below) in the G1 Oakleigh Plate a fortnight ago and ran sizzling sectionals in the process. Keen Array was too bad to be true in the same race (below) and it may pay to forgive because he's better than that. He split Japonisme and Counterattack here (above) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring and gets a pull in the weights from the former. Black Heart Bart is having his first run for trainer Darren Weir so watch to see if there are any betting moves. He strung together three wins at the start of his last campaign and he goes well fresh. Churchill Dancer has only won five races in his career but they've all been at 1200m and four of them came at this track. He's consistent (16 top five finishes in his last 19 starts) and he was good last start behind subsequent G1 winner Holler in the G2 Australia Stakes. Secret Agenda belted them in a G3 race down the straight here during Cup Week last year. She's only missed a top two finish once in seven career starts. Charmed Harmony is paying $151 if you like taking unders.
They've scared away the rest.
The Quarterback goes well at Flemington (10:3-0-4) and at the trip (6:2-1-2). He hit the line really well (below) in the G1 Oakleigh Plate a fortnight ago and ran sizzling sectionals in the process. Keen Array was too bad to be true in the same race (below) and it may pay to forgive because he's better than that. He split Japonisme and Counterattack here (above) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring and gets a pull in the weights from the former. Black Heart Bart is having his first run for trainer Darren Weir so watch to see if there are any betting moves. He strung together three wins at the start of his last campaign and he goes well fresh. Churchill Dancer has only won five races in his career but they've all been at 1200m and four of them came at this track. He's consistent (16 top five finishes in his last 19 starts) and he was good last start behind subsequent G1 winner Holler in the G2 Australia Stakes. Secret Agenda belted them in a G3 race down the straight here during Cup Week last year. She's only missed a top two finish once in seven career starts. Charmed Harmony is paying $151 if you like taking unders.
Locky's Selections
BEST
6. Japonisme
DANGER
1. Chautauqua
FOR EXOTICS
2. Delectation
10. Counterattack
9. Keen Array
6. Japonisme
DANGER
1. Chautauqua
FOR EXOTICS
8. The Quarterback
10. Counterattack
9. Keen Array
OTHER BETS
Super Cash (Flemington Race 3 No. 9) ran second at massive odds in the Listed Cap D'Antibes Stakes at her only appearnce at this course and distance last September. She came from near last at the 800m and ran past all bar the talented Petit Filous. Resumed with a good closing third in the G3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes.
Stratum Star (Flemington Race 4 No. 2) won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) third run in last campaign. Third run back this time last year he was a half length third in the G1 Australian Guineas over the Flemington mile. It took a smart one in Turn Me Loose to hold him off last start in the G1 Futurity Stakes. This is much easier
Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 9) meets some quality opposition here but she's drawn well and gets right down in the weights. She's recaptured some of her old form since being transferred to trainer John Thompson four starts ago and 10 of the last 12 winners of this event have returned between $7.50 and $17. Jockey Kathy O'Hara won her only G1 four years ago and she won the G3 Kembla Grange Classic today aboard Single Gaze so she's riding well.
Good punting!
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