The G1 fest continues tomorrow with Australasia's top 3-y-o's on show in the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington, the G1 Randwick Guineas at Randwick and the G1 N.Z. Derby from Ellerslie.
Not to mention the crack field that's lined up in Sydney for the G1 Canterbury Stakes.
It's just the tip of the iceberg too with 25 Black Type races being run this weekend including some G2 Adelaide Cup hopefuls doing battle in the G3 Lord Reims Stakes at Morphettville tomorrow and G3 Black Opal Stakes Day at Canberra on Sunday.
Not to mention the crack field that's lined up in Sydney for the G1 Canterbury Stakes.
It's just the tip of the iceberg too with 25 Black Type races being run this weekend including some G2 Adelaide Cup hopefuls doing battle in the G3 Lord Reims Stakes at Morphettville tomorrow and G3 Black Opal Stakes Day at Canberra on Sunday.
Who's Hot?
It wouldn't be carnival time if Craig Williams wasn't riding a few winners and following Black Type wins in Melbourne on Holler, Weatherly, Tivaci and Tally he's heading north to try his luck in Sydney.
But first he has rides at Cranbourne tonight - busy boy!
FLEMINGTON
Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)
*** Tulsa is an early scratching ***
Xtravagant could not have been more impressive last start when winning the G1 NRM Sprint in N.Z. by eight lengths beating older horses. That was his second victory at the highest level after last November's eight and a half length demolition job (below) in the G1 N.Z. Thousand Guineas. His only defeats have been on rain affected tracks, he wins by big spaces and he runs time.
Tivaci won the race in thestupid's steward's room last start after a horse that was carrying 2.5kg more than him fought back to "beat" him. I'm really struggling to see him running out a strong mile on that and I happen to think there are better form lines going into the race. He had a gutbuster last start and he's drawn poorly again so although he's undeniably talented I'm leaving him out. You can't tip them all.
Palentino was the loser in the aforementioned protest decision and he does give the impression that the extra furlong won't be a concern but again I've just got a query on the strength of the form. It was a muddling race and they finished in a bunch with just two and three quarter lengths between the "winner" and eighth placed River Wild - and he missed the start by four lengths. It was a gutsy effort though.
Tivaci won the race in the
Palentino was the loser in the aforementioned protest decision and he does give the impression that the extra furlong won't be a concern but again I've just got a query on the strength of the form. It was a muddling race and they finished in a bunch with just two and three quarter lengths between the "winner" and eighth placed River Wild - and he missed the start by four lengths. It was a gutsy effort though.
Tarzino should have finished a lot closer to the winner than he did (below) in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last Spring. That horse was Press Statement and if he's here I reckon he starts favourite. That's the best form for this race in my opinion. I'm not sure if barrier four is ideal for him because he's going to get back and may have to weave a passage but his run last start in the G2 Autumn Stakes was hard to miss. Price and Newitt have won this race twice before.
Mahuta won that race and I thought his effort was full of merit given he carted them along in front, took off early and conceded the second horse five kilos. If that run hasn't taken too much out of him he'll be among the players here because he's unbeaten at 1600m and six from six since they put the blinkers on him. He'll be up on the speed and out of trouble whereas a few of his rivals are going to need luck.
Sailing By meets Mahuta 5kg worse off here and Snoopy is 3kg worse off so I can't see them turning the tables.
There are plenty of others who will have admirers at juicy prices.
Risque is a G1 winning filly in her native N.Z. and she blew them away in her first start in this country. The knock is the second and third horses got beaten last week by a filly who was coming off a win in a maiden. Jameka will probably need another run but her first-up effort was sound in a strong race but only three mares have won in the last 24 years. Sovereign Nation didn't have a lot of luck last start and his fourth behind Press Statement in the G1 Caulfield Guineas was solid given he came from worse than midfield in an on-pace dominated race. Ready For Victory was third in the same race and although he looked disappointing last start there were excuses. Vanbrugh won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick last October but that was over 2000m so I suspect he'll need another hit out here. River Wild fell out of the barriers last start and as a result was four lengths behind the second last horse early before mustering speed. So either his effort to finish as close as he did was good or else it just highlights the fact they were a pretty even bunch. Waterhouse and Prebble combined to win this race last year. Bon Aurum has just been so-so in his two runs this prep.
Sailing By meets Mahuta 5kg worse off here and Snoopy is 3kg worse off so I can't see them turning the tables.
Perfect Reflection is already a G1 w-f-a winner (below) having claimed the G1 Kingston Town Classic in Perth at just her fifth start. The horse she beat was Delicacy. After that 1800m race she didn't race for 11 weeks before dropping back to 1400m last start when they walked and sprinted home but she was still less than a length off the talented Don't Doubt Mamma. She's fared well in the barrier draw and I think she's looking for Flemington and 1600m now.
There are plenty of others who will have admirers at juicy prices.
Risque is a G1 winning filly in her native N.Z. and she blew them away in her first start in this country. The knock is the second and third horses got beaten last week by a filly who was coming off a win in a maiden. Jameka will probably need another run but her first-up effort was sound in a strong race but only three mares have won in the last 24 years. Sovereign Nation didn't have a lot of luck last start and his fourth behind Press Statement in the G1 Caulfield Guineas was solid given he came from worse than midfield in an on-pace dominated race. Ready For Victory was third in the same race and although he looked disappointing last start there were excuses. Vanbrugh won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick last October but that was over 2000m so I suspect he'll need another hit out here. River Wild fell out of the barriers last start and as a result was four lengths behind the second last horse early before mustering speed. So either his effort to finish as close as he did was good or else it just highlights the fact they were a pretty even bunch. Waterhouse and Prebble combined to win this race last year. Bon Aurum has just been so-so in his two runs this prep.
Locky's Selections
BEST
5. Xtravagant
2. Tarzino
5. Xtravagant
DANGER
FOR EXOTICS
14. Perfect Reflection
1. Mahuta
9. Palentino
7. Sovereign Nation
RANDWICK
*** There are no early scratchings ***
14. Perfect Reflection
1. Mahuta
9. Palentino
7. Sovereign Nation
RANDWICK
Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Holler has the blinkers on here so I don't think Our Boy Malachi is going to have the race handed to him on a plate this time. First Seal won well fresh but I doubt if the mares chasing her home were top class except for Catkins who has since been retired. So I'm going to steer away from the two favourites although either of them could win without surprising me.
For those reasons I'm tipping Kermadec here. He's had a build up for this that is very unlike Chris Waller so I think he's primed to run well fresh. Two barrier trials, an exhibition gallop, the blinkers are on and he's been well tried in early betting. He would want to be wound up too seeing that "The Championships" are just four weeks away and also given the fact that he is an entire so he wouldn't want to put in too many poor runs that could tarnish his value as a stallion. Great value odds for such a top quality animal.
For those reasons I'm tipping Kermadec here. He's had a build up for this that is very unlike Chris Waller so I think he's primed to run well fresh. Two barrier trials, an exhibition gallop, the blinkers are on and he's been well tried in early betting. He would want to be wound up too seeing that "The Championships" are just four weeks away and also given the fact that he is an entire so he wouldn't want to put in too many poor runs that could tarnish his value as a stallion. Great value odds for such a top quality animal.
Criterion has been superb in the last year. He ran third in this race fresh last March before a narrow second placing in the G1 George Ryder Stakes followed by a win in the G1 Queen Elizabeth. He then had a couple of runs overseas before returning to win the G1 Caulfield Stakes, run second to Winx in the G1 Cox Plate and then finish third in the G1 Melbourne Cup.
Happy Clapper is having his first go at w-f-a as they test the water en route to the G1 Doncaster Mile for which he is already qualified. Whether he's up to this remains to be seen but he is three from four at the track, his fresh record is good (5:2-1-1) and he's drawn to get a lovely run. Ecuador hasn't missed a top two finish in five first-up appearances and he was second to Winx in the G1 Epsom last October but he's only won once in the last two years.
I've got the three G1 horses on top but I could be completely wrong.
I've got the three G1 horses on top but I could be completely wrong.
Locky's Selections
BEST
2. Kermadec
DANGER
6. First Seal
FOR EXOTICS
3. Our Boy Malachi
7. Holler
OTHER BETS2. Kermadec
DANGER
6. First Seal
FOR EXOTICS
1. Criterion
7. Holler
Get That Jive (Ellerslie Race 9 No. 3) ticks a lot of boxes. Trainer Murray Baker knows a thing or two about winning Derbies (Mongolian Khan, Lion Tamer and Nom Du Jeu) and he is bred to stay. His sire Street Sense won a G1 Kentucky Derby and his dam is a daughter of a G1 Japan Cup winner. He wasn't far away last start in the G2 Avondale Guineas and looks set to peak here. Stable won a G1 last week.
Montaigne (Randwick Race 7 No. 7) probably can't beat Press Statement but I want to be following him going forward to the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He was the best closer last start when dropping back to 1400m after beating older horses at the mile at his previous start and stepping back up in trip will suit him much better. Trainer Anthony Cummings has indicated he will be ridden more positively tomorrow from the good barrier.
Divan (Flemington Race 9 No. 8) went straight to 2000m second-up last Spring and won well in a BM70 before stepping straight up to the G3 Bendigo Cup where he beat all bar G1 Sydney Cup winner The Offer. He followed that with an effortless win at Flemington on the final day of the Carnival. His first-up run over an unsuitable journey was solid and Damien Oliver has ridden him four times for three wins and a second so his engagement is significant.
Good punting!
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