G1 B.M.W. Day - 26.03.201

The G1 B.M.W. has been a race of extremes in recent years with seven of the last 11 winners paying $4 or less while the other four returned $11 or better.

Rosehill had 20mm of rain on Monday but some good drying conditions since should see us racing on a fair surface.

Who's Hot? 

Blake Shinn had a Black Type double at Rosehill last weekend highlighted of course by his win on Capitalist in the G1 Golden Slipper. He's also enjoyed Stakes race success this Autumn aboard Defcon, French Fern, Charlie Boy and First Seal.

He has a full book at Rosehill tomorrow with several good chances including Centre Pivot (Race 3 No. 8), Malaguerra (Race 4 No. 2), Happy Hannah (Race 6 No. 15),  Zanbagh (Race 8 No. 8) and Sadler's Lake (Race 9 No. 8).

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a slight chance of a shower.***

The B.M.W. (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Tricky race with a small field and not a lot of speed so tactics will be crucial. All of these are stepping up to the mile and a half for the first time this prep so we could see massive improvement in some out of form horses.

Seven of the last 11 winners came via the G1 Ranvet Stakes but with the races a week apart this year there's only two of them running tomorrow - Mongolian Khan and Storm The Stars. So I'll start with the quartet coming via the G1 Australian Cup as that race has produced three winners in the same period.

Preferment won the race on protest and even though it was a sit-and-sprint affair I liked the way he ran through the line (below) when he was finally able to straighten up. He's a three time G1 winner who is drawn to get a sweet run here and being a Derby winning son of Zabeel the rise to 2400m looks ideal. This is just his third run this prep so there's still plenty of room for improvement which is scary for his rivals.

Rising Romance (third) had the gun run behind the leaders (above) but didn't offer a lot in the straight for a mare renowned for her powerful sprint finish. She's had five goes at 2400m for a win in a G1 Australian Oaks and seconds in a G1 Caulfield Cup and a G1 N.Z. Derby but she's trading on old form. Her last two starts at the trip have resulted in a last of seven in the G2 Zipping Classic and a 13th of 18 in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup.

Our Ivanhowe (fifth) has no tactical speed so he got too far back and was left with too much to do in a sprint home given his dour staying nature. He still finished off well and he could turn it all around here if he gets a genuinely run race but the problem is he may not. He would have loved a bit more rain but on the upside he's a three time winner at the trip including a G1 Von Bayern in Germany. 

Almoonqith (last) wasn't suited by the pedestrian tempo either and he was still only three lengths from the winner even though he didn't beat a runner home. He's undeniably talented because he only had his first start in this country seven months ago but has already claimed a G3 Geelong Cup and a Listed Sandown Cup but the small field and probable lack of a genuine tempo won't help his chances.

Moving on to the two horses backing up from last weekend's G1 Ranvet Stakes.

Mongolian Khan was poor first-up behind Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes but he was a little better last Saturday. As previously mentioned seven of the last 11 winners have come out of that race and he's three from three at 2400m - the G1 Caulfield Cup (below), the G1 N.Z. Derby and the G1 Australian Derby. His win in the latter came after a last start flop in the G1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m. Watch.

Storm The Stars (last) disappointed me because I tipped him as an each-way chance but he got hot before the race and raced unkindly. I can't be having him here on that but on his best form he'd be in this up to his ears. He's never missed a top three finish in four starts at the distance including placings in the G1 Epsom Derby, G1 Irish Derby and G1 Juddmonte Stakes but he needs to lift. Possible leader?

Then you have a couple coming via the G3 Sky High Stakes which produced last year's winner Hartnell.

Who Shot Thebarman (third) was just out sprinted in that farcically run affair but he'll likely face the same scenario tomorrow. Having said that he did win the G2 Zipping Classic at Sandown in November by seven lengths and he did it by going to the lead a long way out in a slowly run race with a small field. He finished fourth in this race last year (below) against arguably a stronger field and he gives every indication he's going just as well this time in. 

Grand Marshal (fifth) has a great record when he gets to 2400m+ and he's been running well despite what his form says. I'd prefer to see him at Randwick because his Rosehill form is poor (7:1-0-1) but he is probably the one who will benefit the most from the step up to the mile and a half. I expect he'll be running on but the lack of tempo is against him. He'll be better suited in the G1 Sydney Cup.

Montaigne gets at least 3kg from all his rivals here under the w-f-a scale and did beat all bar Tarzino last Saturday (below) in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. If that colt was here he wouldn't be at such a luxurious price. Four starts ago he was winning a BM78 but every time they've raised the bar he has responded. Fiveandahalfstar is the only 3-y-o to win this race in the last 11 years but he was also trained by Anthony Cummings.

Arab Dawn has drawn the outside barrier but he will likely drift back in the small field so it isn't too much of a concern. What is worrying is that he'll probably be spotting them a start in what looks to be a sit-and-sprint affair just like he did last start in the Listed Canberra Cup. He's badly placed at w-f-a but he's had one start at Rosehill for one win defeating current G1 Sydney Cup favourite Libran who has won twice since.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Our Ivanhowe

DANGER  

7. Preferment

FOR EXOTICS

10. Montaigne
5. Arab Dawn
3. Almoonqith

6. Mongolian Khan

OTHER BETS

Centre Pivot (Rosehill Race 3 No. 8) wasn't disgraced in two runs behind Winx in the G2 Apollo Stakes and G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) before closing well from back in the field in a slowly run Listed Canberra Cup. He gets some weight relief here and he loves Rosehill. Hoop Blake Shinn is in good touch and has four winners and three placings from just 11 rides for ex-jockey and first year trainer Peter Robl.

Malaguerra (Rosehill Race 4 No. 2) has been a revelation since being gelded with six runs for five wins and a narrow second. He was super impressive winning first-up when he came down the wrong part of the track at Flemington and stepping up to 1200m will suit even better. He's a horse on the rise and I want to be following him going forward whatever the price.

Jameka (Rosehill Race 6 No. 1) is just about ready to peak here. Fourth run in last prep she beat Tarzino (below) in the G2 Vase at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day before going on to win the G1 VRC Oaks. Her only other start at 2000m or beyond came last Saturday when she chased home Tarzino and Montaigne in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. Back to her own sex here. 

Solicit (Rosehill Race 8 No. 2) has been great this campaign. Seconds to Our Boy Malachi and Winx followed by a track record performance to win the G2 Guy Walter Stakes then she was a brave third in the G1 Coolmore Stakes when giving 2.5kg-3kg to the likes of Peeping and Azkadellia. She's never missed a place at Rosehill or at the trip.

Good punting!

G1 Golden Slipper Day - 19.03.2016

The G1 Golden Slipper aside this has been a great day for the bookies in recent years.

Four of the past five favourites in the G1 George Ryder Stakes failed to run a place with the four winners returning $11 or better. Similarly in the G1 Ranvet Stakes four of the last five favourites were beaten with three of the winners paying $13 or better. 

No top elect has won the G1 Galaxy in the last 13 years with eight of the winners saluting at double figure odds including the last six in a row and four G1 Rosehill Guineas favourites have been rolled in the last six years including the likes of Shoot Out, Silent Achiever, Dissident and Hallowed Crown.

Who's Hot? 

It's not surprising to see Gai Waterhouse gaining momentum as we get deeper into the Sydney Carnival.

In the last three weeks she's tasted Black Type success with Scarlet Rain, Kiss And Make Up, English, Hippopus and Thyme For Roses. Let's not forget too that she's won six G1 Golden Slippers and seven G1 Ranvet Stakes.

Of her numerous runners tomorrow her best chances on paper appear to be Dee I Cee (Race 2 No. 9), Speak Fondly (Race 3 No. 5), Kiss And Make Up (Race 7 No. 4),  English (Race 8 No. 14) and Ecuador (Race 10 No. 3).

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast was for a partly cloudy day.***

Golden Slipper (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Extreme Choice was impressive (below) winning the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes last start. He sat up near the lead in a fast run race and was wide without cover and then had the audacity to boot away from them on the turn. He then seemed to half pull-up until Flying Artie loomed on the outside and he picked himself up again and won comfortably. He's won in Sydney before but the question is can he peak twice in one preparation?

Flying Artie didn't have the best of runs (above) when second behind his aforementioned stablemate last start. He drew a dreadful barrier (for the second start in a row) and was forced to race back and wide then he copped a good old fashioned hip-and-shoulder on the turn and was speared off the track. Despite that he stuck to his guns all the way down the straight and finished more than four lengths in front of the third horse. No Sydney experience is the concern.

Only one winner in the last eight years returned more than $6.50 for the win.

Kiss And Make Up is the fresh horse on the scene who seems to be peaking at the right time. He defeated the previously unbeaten Capitalist last start in the G2 Todman Stakes and they ran slightly faster time than the G3 quality handicap for filies and mares on the same day. His mother ran second in this race in 2005. She was also trained by Gai Waterhouse who is shooting for her fourth win in this race in the last five years and her seventh overall.

Capitalist was beaten for the first time last start but if you liked him prior I wouldn't be too discouraged because he pulled up lame. Sepoy suffered his first defeat in the same race five years ago but bounced back to win the big one. The last four boys to win this race came off a top two finish in the G2 Todman Stakes.

Astern has drawn horribly but so did Vancouver last year. James McDonald rode both Telperion and Calliope at their last starts but he is sticking solid with this bloke which is a good sign. It's been a bleak period for Goldolphin with Holler their only G1 winner since Magic Hurricane claimed the G1 Metropolitan last October. 

Of the rest Good Standing ran slick time when winning the G2 Skyline Stakes last start but only one winner in the last 18 years (Stratum, 2005) has come via that race. He's still learning but he has a lot of ability and this bloke Hugh Bowman can ride a bit I'm told. Calliope is the best of the fillies but in my never humble opinion I think the boys have the edge on the girls this year. She does herself no favours with her racing pattern and the wide barrier will just make it even harder. Defcon unleashed a paralyzing final 400m to grab the G3 Black Opal Stakes last start but that's a level below this and he might have peaked one run too soon. Brett Prebble will probably have to snag him back from the awkward gate which will make it difficult. Scarlet Rain is unbeaten and has the Waterhouse polish but she has has to contend with a bad barrier draw. Tommy Berry did manage to do that last year on Vancouver though and he reunites with her tomorrow. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

1. Extreme Choice

DANGER  

4. Kiss And Make Up

FOR EXOTICS

8. Good Standing

7. Capitalist
2. Flying Artie
5. Astern

George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Winx picks herself. She's won her last seven in a row picking up four G1's along the way including the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) last start. She can be ridden forward or back, can win from 1300m to 2400m and do it right or left handed. Hugh Bowman has ridden her seven times for six wins. The only possible worry could be that she is dropping back in distance 

First Seal has never been beaten by Winx. They have met five times and First Seal has finished in front on every occasion. The problem is in 10 subsequent starts Winx has eight wins and a second. First Seal has had five runs for just the one win and four misses at odds of $3.50 or less. The bookies have erected a shrine in her honour.

Press Statement gets weight from everyone here under the w-f-a scale and although he found trouble last start (below) in the G1 Randwick Guineas I thought he was out in enough time to win if he was good enough. This is his first test in open company and although I'm a big fan at the short quote I'm going to take him on. I wouldn't be surprised if he measured up though.

Kermadec ran well fresh in a race that wasn't really run to suit. This will be his last run before he attempts to defend the G1 Doncaster Mile so he'll be close to peak fitness. He's a two-time G1 winner at the mile and second-up last prep he beat all bar Complacent in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes. No wins in three starts here at Rosehill is a bit of a worry but he's top class.

Turn Me Loose is probably the only horse here who can get Winx out of her comfort zone. He has the capacity to cruise at a high tempo and then quicken as he did (below) when winning the G1 Emirates Stakes. He'll give the favourite something to chase. The wide draw isn't that much of a problem given he's easily going to cross and lead this lot. If he gives a kick on the turn...

Hucklebuck overraced badly last start and if you can forgive that run his first two runs this campaign were quite pleasing. He's won a G1 Emirates Stakes but that was a handicap and this is w-f-a so it is a lot tougher but he's the one at big odds that I think could run into the trifecta. A big turnaround in form wouldn't be a complete shock.

Happy Clapper was thrown in at the deep end last start and acquitted himself well. Still I think this might be a bridge too far. He'll be better in the G1 Doncaster Mile in a fortnight when he gets back to handicap conditions. Tinto is a good mare but she's facing some stiff opposition here. I'm looking to others.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. Winx

DANGER  

1. Turn Me Loose

FOR EXOTICS

2. Kermadec

3. Hucklebuck

IF THE FAVOURITES ARE STRUGGLING...

Storm The Stars (Rosehill Race 4 No. 7) was pretty good last start (below) at his first run in this country at an unsuitable distance in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. He just got left flat footed when they skipped on the point of the turn and he never really got warm. Still he stuck to his guns all the way down the straight and stepping up to 2000m tomorrow will suit him much better.

Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 6 No. 3) was hard to miss (below) in the G1 Australian Guineas last time out. He jumped well and was in a good position early but he just got run off his feet and shuffled back to near last approaching the home turn. If you watched the race you can't have missed his final 400m (even Stevie Wonder saw it) and he has already claimed a G1 Spring Champion Stakes at 2000m.

Fell Swoop (Rosehill Race 8 No. 13) just missed (below) at his first try at the top level when a narrow second in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and he was slightly held up at a crucial stage so you could make an argumen that he should have won. That was his first defeat in five runs and just his second in his last ten starts. They keep raising the bar and he keeps responding every time so aside from being talented he's also very genuine. 

Perignon (Rosehill Race 9 No. 10) was dynamic first-up sprouting wins the final 100m to nab them on the line. She's been kept on the fresh side again for this second-up run (five weeks in between) because that's when she seems to race best. This seems to be her best distance too (6:2-2-0) and she just missed Speak Fondly at this track and trip in the G2 Magic Night Stakes this time last year.

Sadler's Lake (Rosehill Race 10 No. 5) was a dynamic winner fresh last preparation. He's had two trials in readiness for this assignment and the blinkers go on so he's obviously wound up to have a red hot crack at this. He should get into a lovely position in the run from the inside gate. Three wins and a second from four starts on affected ground.

Good punting!

G1 Australian Cup Day - 12.03.2016

There's so many good races over the next few days I don't think I can preview them all.

I think I'll ring the Gambling Helpline and see if they can sort me out with a few tips.

I assume that's what they do.

Who's Hot? 

It's been a good two weeks for brothers Lee & Anthony Freedman with five winners and two placings from their last 12 runners.

They have three runners this weekend - at Cranbourne tonight they saddle up Strykum (Race 6 No. 2) and at Flemington tomorrow they have Guardini (Race 4 No. 8) and Our Ivanhowe (Race 7 No. 5).

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a cloudy day with a slight chance of a shower.***

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Mourinho is an early scratching ***

Bow Creek was unlucky fresh when blocked for a run but he atoned second-up with a big win in the G2 Peter Young Stakes where again he had to overcome trouble. That last start effort has seen him installed a solid favourite here but history is against him because only one favourite has been successful in the last 11 years. Still the one to beat.

Our Ivanhowe was the unlucky runner behind Bow Creek last start and the step up in trip and the longer straight appeal to me. Lee Freedman has won this race twice and he should get a lovely run from the inside barrier but he would have preferred a bit more rain. His third to Mongolian Khan in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup says he's good enough.

Preferment won the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) at this track and distance last Spring. That came after a second-up win in the G2 Hill Stakes where he improved dramatically after an average run first-up and he's at a similar stage here. I thought he was one of the runs of the race first-up when fourth to Winx in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes.

Rising Romance didn't see a lot of room in the straight last start in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and should have finished closer with a clear passage. She's a bit like that however in that she does tend to find trouble and her last three appearances third-up she's been beaten and twice as a short priced favourite. 

Suavito looks like the trip will suit here because she just appeared a little dour when third last time out in the G1 Futurity Stakes. Her prior win in the G1 Orr Stakes first-up after more than 10 months off the scene with injury showed she's still got a zest for racing. She's a two-time winner at Flemington including the G2 Blamey Stakes on this day last year.

Only three horses in the last 20 years have won at double figure odds but quite a few have placed so we'll take a look at them for exotics.

Fenway beat all bar Bow Creek last start in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and at the end of her last prep she was a narrow second to Politeness here in a G1 Myer Classic. She'll get a great run from the good barrier draw. Happy Trails has had two runs to get fit and third run in is when he traditionally peaks. At this stage of his prep last Spring he was just three quarters of a length off Fawkner in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and last Autumn he finished third in this race. Awesome Rock has only had three runs beyond a mile but they've all been super. He was second to Stratum Star in the G3 Coongy last October before winning a G3 1800m race at Flemington on Cup Day. His last start run in the G2 Peter Young Stakes was solid. Almoonqith was in the same race but was just left with too much to do. He hadn't been seen for more than three months and went straight to 1800m and then he drew poorly and was forced to go back. Despite all that only Bow Creek and Rising Romance ran a faster final 1000m. Three wins and a second from five second-up appearances. Extra Zero ran a narrow second (below) in this race last year and was less than a length and a half behind Preferment at this track and trip (above) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes last Spring. He is consistent and always thereabouts but he's only won once since claiming the (time honoured) Listed Albury Cup in March of 2012.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Preferment

DANGER  

6. Bow Creek

FOR EXOTICS

8. Awesome Rock
5. Our Ivanhowe
10. Suavito
9. Rising Romance

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Tiger Tees is an early scratching ***

Chautauqua has had seven starts at Flemington for four wins and three seconds and all were in Black Type races. Granted his three defeats were all at G1 level but he had excuses on each occasion be it traffic and/or tempo. His last-to-first win (below) in the G1 Lightning Stakes three weeks ago was blistering. Seven of the last 10 winners carried 56kg or more.

Japonisme is the young horse on the rise. He's had just the two runs at G1 level but both were down the Flemington straight for a win (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and his last start third (above) in the G1 Lightning Stakes. Trainer Chris Waller won this race last year with Brazen Beau off an almost identical lead-up.

Delectation will be better suited at the 1200m here than he was by the 1000m of the G1 Lightning Stakes last start and gets in with no weight on his back. He won the G1 Darley Classic at this course and distance last November leaving the likes of Chautauqua, Terravista, Buffering and Srikandi in his wake.

Counterattack wasn't far off Japonisme (below) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at this track and trip last November and meets him 2.5kg better off here. He drops to 50kg here and he's never carried less than 56kg in his 12 start career so he'll feel like he's on holidays. Four of the last eight winners were 3-y-o's.

 

They've scared away the rest.

The Quarterback goes well at Flemington (10:3-0-4) and at the trip (6:2-1-2). He hit the line really well (below) in the G1 Oakleigh Plate a fortnight ago and ran sizzling sectionals in the process. Keen Array was too bad to be true in the same race (below) and it may pay to forgive because he's better than that. He split Japonisme and Counterattack here (above) in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring and gets a pull in the weights from the former. Black Heart Bart is having his first run for trainer Darren Weir so watch to see if there are any betting moves. He strung together three wins at the start of his last campaign and he goes well fresh. Churchill Dancer has only won five races in his career but they've all been at 1200m and four of them came at this track. He's consistent (16 top five finishes in his last 19 starts) and he was good last start behind subsequent G1 winner Holler in the G2 Australia Stakes. Secret Agenda belted them in a G3 race down the straight here during Cup Week last year. She's only missed a top two finish once in seven career starts. Charmed Harmony is paying $151 if you like taking unders.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

6. Japonisme

DANGER  

1. Chautauqua

FOR EXOTICS

8. The Quarterback

2. Delectation
10. Counterattack
9. Keen Array

OTHER BETS

Super Cash (Flemington Race 3 No. 9) ran second at massive odds in the Listed Cap D'Antibes Stakes at her only appearnce at this course and distance last September. She came from near last at the 800m and ran past all bar the talented Petit Filous. Resumed with a good closing third in the G3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes.

Stratum Star (Flemington Race 4 No. 2) won the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) third run in last campaign. Third run back this time last year he was a half length third in the G1 Australian Guineas over the Flemington mile. It took a smart one in Turn Me Loose to hold him off last start in the G1 Futurity Stakes. This is much easier

Zanbagh (Rosehill Race 7 No. 9) meets some quality opposition here but she's drawn well and gets right down in the weights. She's recaptured some of her old form since being transferred to trainer John Thompson four starts ago and 10 of the last 12 winners of this event have returned between $7.50 and $17. Jockey Kathy O'Hara won her only G1 four years ago and she won the G3 Kembla Grange Classic today aboard Single Gaze so she's riding well.

Good punting!

G1 Australian Guineas Day - 05.03.2016

The G1 fest continues tomorrow with Australasia's top 3-y-o's on show in the G1 Australian Guineas at Flemington, the G1 Randwick Guineas at Randwick and the G1 N.Z. Derby from Ellerslie.

Not to mention the crack field that's lined up in Sydney for the G1 Canterbury Stakes.

It's just the tip of the iceberg too with 25 Black Type races being run this weekend including some G2 Adelaide Cup hopefuls doing battle in the G3 Lord Reims Stakes at Morphettville tomorrow and G3 Black Opal Stakes Day at Canberra on Sunday.

Who's Hot? 

It wouldn't be carnival time if Craig Williams wasn't riding a few winners and following Black Type wins in Melbourne on Holler, Weatherly, Tivaci and Tally he's heading north to try his luck in Sydney.

But first he has rides at Cranbourne tonight - busy boy!

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast was for a partly cloudy afternoon.***

Australian Guineas (Group 1, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Tulsa is an early scratching ***

Xtravagant could not have been more impressive last start when winning the G1 NRM Sprint in N.Z. by eight lengths beating older horses. That was his second victory at the highest level after last November's eight and a half length demolition job (below) in the G1 N.Z. Thousand Guineas. His only defeats have been on rain affected tracks, he wins by big spaces and he runs time.

Tivaci won the race in the stupid's steward's room last start after a horse that was carrying 2.5kg more than him fought back to "beat" him. I'm really struggling to see him running out a strong mile on that and I happen to think there are better form lines going into the race. He had a gutbuster last start and he's drawn poorly again so although he's undeniably talented I'm leaving him out. You can't tip them all.

Palentino was the loser in the aforementioned protest decision and he does give the impression that the extra furlong won't be a concern but again I've just got a query on the strength of the form. It was a muddling race and they finished in a bunch with just two and three quarter lengths between the "winner" and eighth placed River Wild - and he missed the start by four lengths. It was a gutsy effort though.

Tarzino should have finished a lot closer to the winner than he did (below) in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last Spring. That horse was Press Statement and if he's here I reckon he starts favourite. That's the best form for this race in my opinion. I'm not sure if barrier four is ideal for him because he's going to get back and may have to weave a passage but his run last start in the G2 Autumn Stakes was hard to miss. Price and Newitt have won this race twice before.

Mahuta won that race and I thought his effort was full of merit given he carted them along in front, took off early and conceded the second horse five kilos. If that run hasn't taken too much out of him he'll be among the players here because he's unbeaten at 1600m and six from six since they put the blinkers on him. He'll be up on the speed and out of trouble whereas a few of his rivals are going to need luck.

Sailing By meets Mahuta 5kg worse off here and Snoopy is 3kg worse off so I can't see them turning the tables.

Perfect Reflection is already a G1 w-f-a winner (below) having claimed the G1 Kingston Town Classic in Perth at just her fifth start. The horse she beat was Delicacy. After that 1800m race she didn't race for 11 weeks before dropping back to 1400m last start when they walked and sprinted home but she was still less than a length off the talented Don't Doubt Mamma. She's fared well in the barrier draw and I think she's looking for Flemington and 1600m now.

There are plenty of others who will have admirers at juicy prices.

Risque is a G1 winning filly in her native N.Z. and she blew them away in her first start in this country. The knock is the second and third horses got beaten last week by a filly who was coming off a win in a maiden. Jameka will probably need another run but her first-up effort was sound in a strong race but only three mares have won in the last 24 years. Sovereign Nation didn't have a lot of luck last start and his fourth behind Press Statement in the G1 Caulfield Guineas was solid given he came from worse than midfield in an on-pace dominated race. Ready For Victory was third in the same race and although he looked disappointing last start there were excuses. Vanbrugh won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick last October but that was over 2000m so I suspect he'll need another hit out here. River Wild fell out of the barriers last start and as a result was four lengths behind the second last horse early before mustering speed. So either his effort to finish as close as he did was good or else it just highlights the fact they were a pretty even bunch. Waterhouse and Prebble combined to win this race last year. Bon Aurum has just been so-so in his two runs this prep.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

5. Xtravagant

DANGER  

2. Tarzino

FOR EXOTICS

14. Perfect Reflection
1. Mahuta
9. Palentino
7. Sovereign Nation

RANDWICK

Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Holler has the blinkers on here so I don't think Our Boy Malachi is going to have the race handed to him on a plate this time. First Seal won well fresh but I doubt if the mares chasing her home were top class except for Catkins who has since been retired. So I'm going to steer away from the two favourites although either of them could win without surprising me.

For those reasons I'm tipping Kermadec here. He's had a build up for this that is very unlike Chris Waller so I think he's primed to run well fresh. Two barrier trials, an exhibition gallop, the blinkers are on and he's been well tried in early betting. He would want to be wound up too seeing that "The Championships" are just four weeks away and also given the fact that he is an entire so he wouldn't want to put in too many poor runs that could tarnish his value as a stallion. Great value odds for such a top quality animal.

Criterion has been superb in the last year. He ran third in this race fresh last March before a narrow second placing in the G1 George Ryder Stakes followed by a win in the G1 Queen Elizabeth. He then had a couple of runs overseas before returning to win the G1 Caulfield Stakes, run second to Winx in the G1 Cox Plate and then finish third in the G1 Melbourne Cup.

Happy Clapper is having his first go at w-f-a as they test the water en route to the G1 Doncaster Mile for which he is already qualified. Whether he's up to this remains to be seen but he is three from four at the track, his fresh record is good (5:2-1-1) and he's drawn to get a lovely run. Ecuador hasn't missed a top two finish in five first-up appearances and he was second to Winx in the G1 Epsom last October but he's only won once in the last two years. 

I've got the three G1 horses on top but I could be completely wrong.

Locky's Selections

BEST        

2. Kermadec

DANGER  

6. First Seal

FOR EXOTICS

1. Criterion

3. Our Boy Malachi
7. Holler

OTHER BETS

Get That Jive (Ellerslie Race 9 No. 3) ticks a lot of boxes. Trainer Murray Baker knows a thing or two about winning Derbies (Mongolian Khan, Lion Tamer and Nom Du Jeu) and he is bred to stay. His sire Street Sense won a G1 Kentucky Derby and his dam is a daughter of a G1 Japan Cup winner. He wasn't far away last start in the G2 Avondale Guineas and looks set to peak here. Stable won a G1 last week.

Montaigne (Randwick Race 7 No. 7) probably can't beat Press Statement but I want to be following him going forward to the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He was the best closer last start when dropping back to 1400m after beating older horses at the mile at his previous start and stepping back up in trip will suit him much better. Trainer Anthony Cummings has indicated he will be ridden more positively tomorrow from the good barrier.

Divan (Flemington Race 9 No. 8) went straight to 2000m second-up last Spring and won well in a BM70 before stepping straight up to the G3 Bendigo Cup where he beat all bar G1 Sydney Cup winner The Offer. He followed that with an effortless win at Flemington on the final day of the Carnival. His first-up run over an unsuitable journey was solid and Damien Oliver has ridden him four times for three wins and a second so his engagement is significant.

Good punting!