The final G1 of 2015 and a race callers nightmare with four stablemates wearing almost identical silks and distinguished only by the colour of their caps. There's also another five runners who wear predominantly yellow. Leave me out of that.
Ten weeks now until the next major when the G1 Orr Stakes rolls around on February 13 next year.
Who's Hot?
James McDonald has had 12 winners in the last 17 days at a strike rate of 29.3%. He's placing on roughly three out of every five horses he rides so he must be included in all trifectas.
He has a full book at Randwick tomorrow but his best rides on paper look to be Tarquin (Race 2 No. 1), Rye (Race 3 No. 6) and Felines (Race 7 No. 7).
ASCOT
*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of showers.***
Kingston Town Classic (Group 1, 1800m, w-f-a)
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Black Heart Bart: Seven of the last 11 winners came off a top four finish in the G1 Railway Stakes. Nine of them started at single figure odds and eight started from single figure barriers including the last five in a row.
Having said that the top two in the market don't come via the G1 Railway Stakes.
Having said that the top two in the market don't come via the G1 Railway Stakes.
Magic Artist was unlucky not to win (below) when making his Australian debut in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes. A week later he dropped back from the 2000m to the 1600m of the G1 Emirates Stakes and was a solid fourth if a bit one paced. The inside barrier is a massive advantage given they have to negotiate two very tight turns from the 1800m start at Ascot. So is the engagement of Damien Oliver.
Perfect Reflection is attempting to become the fourth 3-y-o to win this race in the last nine years. She's four from four including a dominant last to first victory (below) in the G3 W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes here three weeks ago. It's tough to go from a Pinjarra maiden to a G1 in just three months but she just keeps winning and gets 6.5kg - 9kg on most of her rivals. Wide barrier is a concern but jockey William Pike sticks solid. Wary.
Now let's take a look (below) at the form out of the G1 Railway Stakes.
Real Love (seventh) was forced to go back from a wide draw but did finish the race of well. I still think she may be one run away because this time last year she really peaked when she went to 2000m+ at her fourth, fifth and sixth runs of the prep. Her two runs at 1800m have been poor. I'll be looking for her in coming weeks in a race like the G2 Perth Cup but I still expect her to be amongst them at the finish.
Black Heart Bart (fourth) meets those two mares 2.5kg to 3kg better off for beating them home in the G1 Railway Stakes. The knock is he's never won beyond 1420m in seven attempts although he has placed three times including a third at this track and distance. He's drawn to get a lovely run and that will be a big help. A six time winner here at Ascot so he does have an affinity for the circuit.
Four winners in the last 11 years have paid $21 - $26 (but only one of the last nine) so we should take at least a brief look at some of the longer priced horses especially for those who like to play the exotics.
Balmont Girl (third) got a good run in transit from the good gate and she's likely to get the same again tomorrow from barrier two. The problem is she is probably the worst off at the w-f-a scale here because she goes up 4kg and meets many of her opponents on that day much worse off here. A G3 W.A. Oaks winner so she has class and will stay.
Hazzabeel (fifth) worked early to get across from his wide barrier last start so drawing in helps his chances here. He's never been tried beyond a mile but his pedigree suggests it won't be a concern. What is of concern is that he jumps 6kg on his last run. He won five of his first six starts but has won just one of his last five.
Of the others that don't come via the G1 Railway Stakes Extra Zero wasn't far behind Magic Artist last start in that G1 Mackinnon Stakes (see above) and he was one of the few to make ground away from the fence that day. Two starts prior to that (below) he was only a length and a quarter off Preferment in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. The shocking barrier does nothing to help his chances.
Balmont Girl (third) got a good run in transit from the good gate and she's likely to get the same again tomorrow from barrier two. The problem is she is probably the worst off at the w-f-a scale here because she goes up 4kg and meets many of her opponents on that day much worse off here. A G3 W.A. Oaks winner so she has class and will stay.
Of the others that don't come via the G1 Railway Stakes Extra Zero wasn't far behind Magic Artist last start in that G1 Mackinnon Stakes (see above) and he was one of the few to make ground away from the fence that day. Two starts prior to that (below) he was only a length and a quarter off Preferment in the G1 Turnbull Stakes. The shocking barrier does nothing to help his chances.
Neverland has won three on end since resuming and six from eight overall. She'll need luck from barrier 10 and she meets Delicacy 1kg worse off for a three and a half length hiding at this track and distance in the G3 Ascot 1000 Guineas earlier this year. In fact she's chased home that mare in her only two career misses - both of which came when they tried to stretch her beyond 1600m.
Man Booker comes off victory (below) in the G2 W.A. Guineas and has won four from seven overall so he's no slouch. That was his first win at Ascot in three attempts (he's three from four at Belmont Park) and he's never won beyond 1600m. I think that was a weaker form race compared to his opposition here so I'm looking elsewhere.
Blackwood closed well from last start in that same G2 W.A. Guineas and it was a slowly run race so her effort was full of merit. Prior to that she wasn't far off Perfect Reflection in the G3 W.A. Champion Fillies Stakes. Jockey Steven Parnham has won this race three times in the last five years.
Good punting!
Locky's Selections
4. Magic Artist
16. Perfect Reflection
10. Real Love
9. Balmont Girl
OTHER RACES
10. Real Love
9. Balmont Girl
OTHER RACES
Brisbane Handicap (Listed, 1640m, quality handicap)
Jumbo Prince (Doomben Race 8 No. 3) could improve here after a disappointing effort last start. A sprinkle of rain this week in Brisbane means the track won't be as firm and he meets Traveston Girl 3kg better off. A two-time winner at the mile and a Black Type placegetter during the Winter Carnival.
City of Greater Dandenong Stakes (Listed, 1000m, handicap)
Reldas (Sandown Race 7 No. 5) was impressive during the Spring Carnival with back-to-back Moonee Valley wins followed by a close-up second to Malaguerra at Flemington on Emirates Stakes Day. Three starts here at Sandown for two wins. Back from 1400m to 1000m but he has had a four week freshen-up.
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