G2 Perth Cup Day - 02.01.2016

I hope everyone had a great Xmas and New Year and here's to a successful 2016.

Let's try and start off with a winner!

Who's Hot? 

In the last nine days William Pike has had 15 rides for seven winners and seven placings. He has missed the top three just once. That is remarkable.

He has a bunch of rides at Ascot tomorrow so I won't list them all.

ASCOT

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of showers.***

Perth Cup (Group 2, 2400m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'll start with the four Bob Peters owned gallopers because they occupy four of the first five lines of betting.

Delicacy has to break a weight carrying record to win here but if anyone can do it she can given her effortless victory last start (below) in the G2 Cox Stakes. Going from w-f-a to handicap conditions is the only knock because she'll be meeting many of the beaten brigade eight kilos worse off here. Six starts at 2000m or beyond for six wins including two Oaks and two Derbies. Is the inside draw a help or a hindrance?

Real Love wasn't far off her stablemate (above) in the same race and does get a three kilo pull in the weights here. She did win this race last year but carried just 54kg and this looks a tougher edition and she has to overcome a wide barrier too. Three of the last four winners were mares but since the race went to 2400m in 2009 only two of the seven winners have been at double figure odds.

Neverland was the eye-catcher last start (below) when second in the Listed A.T.A. Stakes. She got too far back in a slowly run race where the winner sat on the speed and sprinted on the point of the turn. The concern is that in ten starts she's unbeaten in her six appearances up to 1500m but winless in her four other runs at longer journeys. How much do we read into the fact that William Pike has chosen to ride her over Delicacy?

Respondent drops five kilos on his last run (above) and this race does favour lightweights with no winner lumping more than 58kg since 1913 and no winner carrying more than 55.5kg since the race changed distance seven years ago. The problem is he hasn't won since claiming the G2 WA Derby at this course and distance 20 months ago and his 14 subsequent runs have yielded just five placings.

Bedamijo is a five time winner at the track including a last start victory (above) in the Listed A.T.A. Stakes over 2200m. She has four top-two finishes in her last five starts so she's in red hot form but funnily enough prior to that she had failed to place in her six attempts at 2000m and beyond. She may also have been flattered last start by a slow pace up front and a cosy run near the lead but she's drawn to get a good run again.

All the others are likely to start $20+.

Of the rest Properantes and Dust Me Off closed well behind Bedamijo (above) in the Listed A.T.A. Stakes after getting too far out of their ground especially given the dawdling tempo. Properantes can be handier in the run this time from the better draw and is a four-time winner here. Dust Me Off meets them better at the weights.

Dubai Escapade hasn't appeared since getting held up and savaging the line (below) to win the Listed Tattersalls' Cup six weeks ago. That win came on the back of an eight week layoff so obviously they think the key to him is spacing his runs. Granted he has to overcome a wide gate but he could run into the placings at big odds without surprising.

Ask Me Nicely (third in this race in 2014) and Tower Of Lonhro ran through the line OK in the G2 Cox Stakes (see further above) and get a five kilo turnaround on Real Love and an eight kilo swing on Delicacy. Balmont Girl was solid too but her weight pull is less however she has a win at this course and distance whereas the aforementioned pair do not. 

Locky's Selections

BEST        

11. Neverland 

DANGER  

1. Delicacy

FOR EXOTICS

7. Dubai Escapade
2. Real Love
15. Tower Of Lonhro
12. Properantes