G1 Underwood Stakes / Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Day - 26.09.2015

A mixed bag last Saturday. I had Fell Swoop ($2.70) and Kermadec ($2.35) on top last week plus the G1 George Main Stakes quinella ($3.80). I doubt however that they will award me the Victoria Cross for those acts of bravery.

Of my other selections Rudy (2nd) ran the up-and-coming Sadler's Lake to half a length after giving him a head start and 4kg. Shiraz (3rd) wasn't far away and may have been in the worst section of the track but Teronado was absolutely diabolical.

Lastly my "Who's hot?" segment featured Chris Waller and what can you say? He's going so well I have decided to dedicate a segment to him today.

Who's hot?

Robert Hickmott has had just 22 runners since the new season began on August 1 but his strike-rate is awesome (Win 31.8% / Place 59.1%) with seven winners and six placegetters. He took four horses to Adelaide last weekend for three winners and a second including a quinella. In previous Saturday metro meetings he has also produced the winners The United States, Chance To Dance and Fawkner.

He had three horses nominated for tomorrow but only accepted with two and then he scratched Foundry so he is left with just the one starter - Fawkner (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1).

CAULFIELD

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day.***

Underwood Stakes (Group 1, 1800m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Fawkner: Since the win of Sharscay at $13 in 1995 only two horses in the last 20 years have returned more than $8. No mare has won this race since Tristarc in 1985. Fifteen of the last 16 winners finished top four at their previous start. Only three favourites have been successful in the last 12 years.

Contributer will have to improve off his return run because he was well beaten (below) in the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes. Maybe he resented getting into a bumping duel with Dibayani on the turn and he had his head on one side coming down the straight so perhaps he just didn't handle the tight Moonee Valley track. He has won at Caulfield though but given Bagman came from behind him and gave him windburn on that form line I can't possibly step into 7/2 in the old language. 

The Cleaner led unchallenged in that race (above) and while I don't think he'll be taken on here I don't think he will get as soft a run as he did at Moonee Valley three weeks ago. His Caulfield record was pretty ordinary before his narrow second two starts ago in the G2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes. He's a cult horse and sure to have his admirers and as usual they're going to get a pretty good price but I just happen to think the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes form is stronger.

Former Hong Kong galloper Dibayani comes via the G2 Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes too and he was solid if not spectacular capturing his second G2 placing in as many starts in this country. So too does Mourinho who finished alongside Contributer in that race and while it was a below par effort he did win fresh in the Autumn, miss second up and then win the G2 Peter Young Stakes third-up.

Fawkner was there to be beaten last start in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (below) first-up at the mile after more than 10 months off but he staved off all the challengers. He'll only improve from that run and his last two starts at Caulfield have yielded wins in a G1 Caulfield Stakes and a G1 Caulfield Cup. My concern about that form line is that there were a few hard luck stories with several horses badly held up at vital stages and yet just four lengths covered the field at the finish. His last five starts have been at G1 level and he's won two, been placed twice and finished 10th in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. He ticks a lot of boxes.

In fact there were either quite a few good runs in that race (above) or they are just a pretty even lot. Volkstok'n'barrell (last) and Dandino (11th) didn't see a lot of galloping room so their margins are forgivable. Both seemed to be full of running but just had nowhere to go like many others in that race. Weary (9th) bombed the start (again) but made up late ground to be on the heels of the placegetters. The problem is you just can't keep making mistakes like that in big races. He finished second behind Pornichet in the G1 Doomben Cup over 2000m in April so the trip is no concern and he does have the residual fitness. Mongolian Khan (7th) ran like you would expect a stayer to run when resuming at 1600m after a five month break so his effort to be beaten a length and a half was respectable. The step up to 1800m is a big plus for him too and his trainer Murray Baker has won two of the last four renewals of this race. Hi World has found the step-up to G1 level a bit too much at his too starts this campaign and Magicool I suspect will need the run as he in on a Cups path but he has improved each start this prep and is going OK.

In fact you could pretty much make a case for all of them to be in your first four because Sertorious isn't hopeless either. But I can only have four so here it goes.

Locky's Selections

1. Fawkner

7. Weary
10. Volkstok'n'barrell
9. Mongolian Khan

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Ninth Legion is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Disposition: In the last 13 runnings of this race no winner has returned more than $12 and only three have paid more than $9. Only three winners in that period carried more than 54.5kg and only three were female. Eight were 4-y-o's including seven of the last nine and the last five in a row. Damien Oliver has ridden six winners of this race and Lee Freedman has trained the winner four times. The last three winners started favourite.

Disposition started his career in WA and is building an imposing record with nine starts for five wins and three seconds. He split Wandjina and Stratum Star in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes in the Autumn and was also a narrow second to Moriarty in the G1 Kingston Town Classic in Perth last December as a 3-y-o. He won impressively first-up, has proven himself competitive at the top level, is lightly weighted, drawn well and will sit handy to the speed.

Stratum Star comes off a third (below) in that very strong G1 Memsie Stakes. He chased home Boban and Entirely Platinum who have both since run well in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and he beat home seven other horses who will contest tomorrow's other G1. That was four weeks ago so he's been kept fresh for this and third-up last prep he was a half length third in the G1 Australian Guineas. Jockey Craig Williams has to overcome a horrible barrier draw but he has ridden four of the last nine winners of this race and three of the last six winners drew 14 or wider.

Under The Louvre was unlucky last time out in the G2 Bobbie Lewis Stakes and he's going to need luck again tomorrow because in all likelihood he will jump from barrier five. For a horse who likes to get back and run on that could present problems because he's going to need to either thread a passage through the ruck or circle the field. I tipped him last start and he was desperately unlucky but this is going to be tough having to concede weight and a start to some talented types. In the mix though.

Lucky Hussler burst through late and looked like winning fresh in the previously mentioned G2 Bobbie Lewis Stakes a fortnight ago but the 59kg told in the end. He was conceding weight to those in front of him that day but he's going to have to do that again tomorrow. He is going to get a good run from the good barrier but no horse has won this race carrying more than 56.5kg since Testa Rossa (58.5kg) in 2000.

Everything else is going to be about $12+. Cosmic Endeavour hasn't been placed in two runs at Caulfield but does have three wins and a second from five starts at 1400m. Only three mares have won this race in the last 20 years and none of them carried more than 53.5kg. Charmed Harmony has won his last four and is a seven time winner at 1400m including his last two starts at this track. He's an on pace runner with a good barrier and a light weight so he will give his backers a great sight. Rich Enuff has drawn the car park and Damien Oliver has given up the ride to James McDonald so I don't know how much we read into that. He doesn't seem the same horse as he was last Spring and maybe hasn't handled the step up to open company. Good on his day though. Strawberry Boy has been scratched from Sydney to run here and the real big tick for him is the name "C.Waller" next to him in the form guide. He's a three time winner second-up and he did win two Black Type races during the Winter Carnival but both were at 1600m. Petrology comes via the G1 Memsie Stakes at w-f-a and he won't know himself with just the 52kg. He could lob into the first four at huge odds. Don't be surprised if the Queenslander Hopfgarten runs a tidy race first-up. A good race chock full of talent with quite a few genuine chances.

Locky's Selections

12. Disposition
11. Stratum Star
8. Under The Louvre

10. Charmed Harmony

This bloke seems to have a Golden Ticket to big race winners at the moment - so let's take a look at some of his better chances of getting us the chocolates tomorrow.

Hard Luck Story

Press Statement (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) was tipped in this blog last start as loyal readers will know and he didn't have a lot of luck (below) in the G1 Golden Rose. Third-up in his only other prep he won the G1 J.J. Atkins at the mile at Doomben on Stradbroke Day. He's going to be a very short price but I'm not dropping off because of one unlucky run. Maybe make him an anchor leg in some multis.

On The Up

Vanbrugh (Rosehill Race 5 No. 4) looks a stayer in the making and I've already taken $8 for him to claim the G1 Spring Champion Stakes in a fortnight because if he wins tomorrow (and both the bookies and I think he will) I won't get anything near that price. He only took care of an average lot last start but it was the authority with which he did it that impressed me and the way he ran through the line said to me he is screaming out for 1800m-2000m.

* Given the name of this segment perhaps the "omen" tip is No. 11 Gobstopper *

Form Line

I'm Imposing (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5) comes of a nice fresh effort (below) in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes when he charged to the line late. The trifecta in the G1 George Main Stakes last weekend came via that race as did five of the first seven over the line in the G2 Hill Stakes on the same day. Second-up last campaign he ran well in a G2 Hollindale Stakes following a similar fresh effort.

Brisbane Winter Form

Ballet Suite (Rosehill Race 8 No. 4) chased home stablemate Sadler's Lake last time out and he has since gone on to claim last Saturday's G3 Bill Ritchie Stakes and looks a good horse in the making. She has two second-up appearances for a win and a second and spent the Winter Carnival in Queensland. Numerous horses who did that (Counterattack, Sadler's Lake, Ball Of Muscle, Honesta, Pornichet, Bassett, Charlie Boy and Politeness) performed very well last weekend.

OTHER BETS

Longshot

Sagaronne (Caulfield Race 5 No. 3) was a complete forgive run at Moonee Valley last time out because she saw more backsides than a Customs officer. The outside barrier actually appeals to me because she is going to go back anyway and at least she won't get buried away like last time.The step up to 1400m appeals and second-up last campaign she charged home from near last to claim the Listed The Phoenix. She wasn't far off Press Statement (below) in the G1 J.J. Atkins at Doomben in June.

Forgive

Kuro (Caulfield Race 3 No. 2) is second-up and at his second run in the Autumn he beat all bar Sweet Idea in the G1 Galaxy. Two starts back he was only half a length behind Ball Of Muscle in the G2 QTC Cup and that horse was just pipped last week by Rebel Dane in the G2 The Shorts at Randwick. He looks the obvious danger to his former stablemate Craftiness and he ran into a lot of trouble in the straight last start so the four length margin is deceiving. This is easier.

G1 George Main Stakes Day - 19.09.2015

A breathtaking last-to-first win by Winx was certainly the highlight last Saturday but there were plenty of worthy support acts with emerging three-year-olds Exosphere, Petits Filous and Kinglike announcing their arrivals plus the "Queen of the Turf" Catkins claiming her sixteenth career victory.  

I wish I'd followed my own tips last weekend because gun Brisbane apprentice James Orman bagged a treble (the very three I named), top selections Fawkner ($5.40) and Silverball ($1.95) both saluted and each-way tip Under the Louvre (2nd $3.00) just missed in a thrilling finish.

Music Magnate (3rd $1.60 place) sweated up pre-race so I'm not writing him off just yet and Press Statement (5th) isn't to blame for where he finished. Good thing Tye Angland is a jockey and not a motorcyclist because if he rode a bike the way he rode this colt he'd be pulled over and asked to blow into a bag. Platinum Rocker (8th) was disappointing.

The highlight this weekend is the G1 George Main Stakes and I'm working on the assumption we'll have a wet track in Sydney.

Who's hot?

Special mention to James McDonald for his four winners last weekend but Chris Waller has to go in and not just because he trained five winners across two states. He has dominated this day in the last three years wining the feature race twice and claiming six wins overall.

His record in big mile races in Sydney is phenomenal. He has also trained the winner of the last three G1 Doncaster Miles, the last two G1 Epsom Handicaps and the winners of four of the last five G1 Chipping Norton Stakes.

It's hard to keep up good stats with so many horses and yet roughly one in every five he takes to the track wins and almost one in every two places. He trained a Black Type treble at Newcastle today including the feature race the G3 Newcastle Cup.

He has horses running everywhere tomorrow but his two most fancied runners are Sadler's Lake (Randwick Race 2 No. 6) and Kermadec (Randwick Race 6 No. 5).

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a high chance of showers in the morning.***

George Main Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Kermadec: 12 of the last 13 winners of this race returned $9 or less and only three returned more than $6. Six started favourite including four of the last five. Eight had finished top two at their previous start. Chris Waller has won this race twice in the last three years. Only one mare (More Joyous in 2010) has been successful since Ma Chuiquita in 1986.

Kermadec will start favourite here and deservedly so. His last two starts at the Randwick 1600m have resulted in a win in the G1 Doncaster Mile and a second (below) in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes last start. It was a gutsy effort considering he was deep without cover for most of the race. Those were his only two starts on affected ground so the rain is no concern. Third-up first prep he won the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on VRC Derby Day and third-up last prep he should have won the G1 Australian Guineas

Royal Descent was third (above) a length and a half astern of Kermadec and I think that G2 Chelmsford Stakes form line is strong. Like her stablemate she enjoys the Randwick mile and wet tracks. She's never missed a place in seven attempts at this track and distance and has two wins and seven placings from 11 runs in the wet. She rarely wins but she's a must for exotics. Second in this race the last two years running.

Pornichet wasn't as impressive as Kermadec and Royal Descent in the same race but he was wide most of the way and he may have been a victim of "second-up syndrome" after his tough run first-up. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he bounced back because Gai Waterhouse does make a habit of winning these big Randwick miles. She has won  this race four times, the G1 Chipping Norton six times and the G1 Doncaster Mile and G1 Epsom Handicap seven times apiece.

Hooked led all the way (below) to claim the G2 Tramway Stakes first-up a fortnight ago but the the track was clearly leader biased that day. He has just two other wins in his last 24 appearances stretching back to April 2013. Granted they were a G3 Cameron Handicap and a G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day but he does tend to space his victories. Sincero (2011) is the only horse to complete the Tramway-George Main double since Shaftesbury Avenue (1990) and only one winner of this race in the last 15 years paid $10+.

Lucia Valentina flashed home (above)  behind Hooked in the G2 Tramway Stakes on a day when horses weren't making ground and she'll relish the wet conditions because her dry track form reads poorly (11:1-0-2) but she's two from two on heavy and has two wins and three placings from seven starts on slow tracks. Sixth in this race last year on a Good 3.

Everything else is going to be about $15+ but Kirramosa did close well for fifth (above) in the G2 Tramway Stakes against the bias. She's probably still looking for further but I expect she will be running on strongly at the end. The stablemates Sweynesse and Hauraki were pretty plain in the same race but an improved showing second-up wouldn't be an absolute shock. Especially from the former who was prominent throughout (above) in the G2 Tramway Stakes and only knocked-up late. Protectionist wasn't as bad last start as his 13th of 14 looks on paper. He found the line and stretched out like a stayer and although 1600m is well short of his best he does like a rain affected track. Moriarty had a vet inspection this afternoon for localised swelling that had developed in his neck and he's still in the field so obviously he got the thumbs up. Apparently it hasn't affected his trackwork or appetite but I'll be leaving him alone.

Locky's Selections

5. Kermadec

8. Royal Descent
9. Lucia Valentina
10. Kirramosa

OTHER BETS

Mudlark

Rudy (Randwick Race 2 No. 3) is an absolute swimmer and he came from a mile back last start in the G2 Tramway Stakes to finish third behind Hooked. That gelding is going around in the G1 today. It was not a day to be coming from back in the field either. Winners Farolitos, Metallic Crown, Complacent and the aforementioned Hooked led all the way and Speak Fondly, Shiraz and Sadler's Lake stalked the leaders. His only two other starts here at headquarters have returned a win in the G2 Villiers Stakes and a fourth (below) to Kermadec in the G1 Doncaster Mile.

Picket Fence

Shiraz (Randwick Race 4 No. 7) has strung together four straight wins this campaign with the last two being at stakes level. Last start he accounted for the talented stablemates Craftiness and Ball Of Muscle in the G3 Concorde Stakes and prior to that he relegated subsequent winner Le Bonsir to third in the G3 Aurie's Star. They've raised the bar again tomorrow but given the rain they've had in Sydney this week and the fact that he has won four from four on wet tracks I can't see why he can't keep the winning streak going.

Form Line

Perignon (Randwick Race 5 No. 6) has had two starts on soft tracks for two seconds. They were at her last two starts respectively and on both occasions she chased home Speak Fondly who ran a cracking second against the boys last weekend in the G1 Golden Rose. In my never humble opinion I think she is crying out for 1400m just watching her racing pattern. She's drawn to get a bit of cover and if Hughie can weave a bit of that Bowman magic I'm sure she'll be in the firing line when the whips are cracking.

One To Follow

Teronado (Doomben Race 4 No. 1) flashed home last start at Doomben and stepping up to the mile looks ideal for him at this stage of his preparation. He's been nominated for both the G1 Epsom Handicap and the G1 Caulfield Cup so if they think he can be competitive in those races he'd want to be taking care of this lot. All his wet track misses have been in unsuitable races but he has won on a Slow 6 and was a one and a half length third (below) to Criterion on a Slow 7 in the G1 Rosehill Guineas.

Pin-Up Boy

Fell Swoop (Caulfield Race 6 No. 5) is my horse of the moment. Regular readers will know I just love this bloke. He's won seven from nine and proved his adaptability when he easily accounted for his rivals last time out at his first start the Melbourne way of going. That was his first attempt at Stakes level and this Listed race tomorrow doesn't look much harder. He does get a nice pull in the weights from his older, more seasoned, "higher rated" rivals. I can't see any reason to drop off him now. Drawn to get a lovely run.

G1 Golden Rose / G1 Makybe Diva Stakes Day - 12.09.2015

Some good results last weekend with The Cleaner ($5.50) and Fell Swoop ($2.45) both selected on top and saluting plus The United States (2nd $2.20 place) who would have won too if he hadn't been hanging like a loose tooth. The only other two selected on top were Royal Descent (3rd $1.70 place) and the eye-catching Teronado (3rd $3.00 place).

It's a good time to be finding some form too because from here on in the fields are only going to get stronger the deeper we progress into the Spring Carnival.

Who's hot?

Promising apprentice James Orman has ridden a winning double at the last three Brisbane Saturday meetings and all up has piloted 11 winners to victory in the last three weeks. He's clearly dedicated because in the last 10 days he's ridden at Mackay, Doomben, Yeppoon, Beaudesert, the Sunshine Coast and Ipswich.

He has a full book at Doomben tomorrow but his best chances on paper appear to be Lock's Legend (Race 2 No. 1) and Sarisara (Race 6 No. 4) although there has also been a big push for Blue Desert Moon (Race 8 No. 7). 

ROSEHILL

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a sunny day.***

Golden Rose (Group 1, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Gold Symphony is an early scratching ***

Exosphere has had five starts for three wins on wet tracks and two unplaced runs on dry tracks so there is some suggestion he may simply be better on affected ground. Having said that his most recent outing (below) in the G2 Run To The Rose was outstanding. They went through the first 600m in 36.19 then sprinted home the final 600m in 34.43 so his effort to round them up from last and win going away can't be ignored. This is his first go beyond 1200m but the way he ran through the line suggests it will be no problem. 

Press Statement finished second (above) in the same race and he is one you know will handle the 1400m having won a G1 J.J. Atkins (below) over 1600m during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. The horse that chased him home that day Sagaronne ran well without luck at Moonee Valley last weekend. The horse he beat prior to that was Shards and he won his next two so the form around this bloke is stacking up. Jockey Tye Angland had a winning double last weekend (his first Saturday metro winners since August 15) and trainer Chris Waller does win the odd G1 race every now and then.

Speak Fondly has been well supported in early betting on the back of two impressive wins this prep. This race was first run in 1978 (in its previous incarnation as the G2 Peter Pan Stakes) and remarkably it is a Sydney feature that Gai Waterhouse has never won. Since it became known by its current name in 2003 only one filly has won and that was Forensics when it was held in the Autumn due to the equine influenza outbreak. She's racing well but I just feel she's coming out of weaker quality races. A win wouldn't shock me though because she has clearly been the best backed runner ($5.50 into $3.20) in early betting.

If you like anything else you're going to get $12+. Of the rest Shards was only a half length behind Press Statement over this distance three starts back at level weights and he proceeded to win his next two starts. He hasn't missed a top two finish in three starts at 1300m and beyond and "The Magic Man" Joao Moreira takes the ride. Holler meets Exosphere 3kg worse off and Press Statement 4kg worse off for his last start defeat and he is yet to win beyond 1100m. He's also never been tried beyond 1200m. Sebring Sun ran on well from a long way back when third last time out behind Shards in the G3 Up & Coming Stakes. Rageese ran second (below) to Pride Of Dubai in the G1 Sires Produce over this trip back in April after heading him halfway down the straight. His only other go at the journey he comfortably broke his maiden at Wyong last start as an odds-on favourite. Let's Make It Rain I won't go into too much detail about because as a child I was taught if you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all.

Locky's Selections

1. Press Statement

2. Exosphere

5. Shards
4. Rageese

FLEMINGTON

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Makybe Diva Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Our Ivanhowe is an scratching ***

Boban doesn't mind a mile. He's won a G1 Epsom Handicap, a G1 Emirates Stakes and a G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. His first-up win (below) in the G1 Memsie Stakes a fortnight ago was full of merit given the slow tempo set by Entirely Platinum. Second-up last campaign he flashed home for second in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap behind Srikandi who was in receipt of a 5kg pull in the weights. Had nine unplaced runs between his G1 victories in the Chipping Norton and the Doomben 10,000 but Chris Waller appears to have him back on track now.

Weary ran just as well as his stablemate (above) in the G1 Memsie Stakes after being slowly away and racing wide without cover from the 600m. He was the best of the closers in a dawdling race and seems to have returned to the form that saw him placed in a G1 Doncaster Mile last year. Chris Waller does make a habit of finding the key to a talented horse that has been out of form (think Boban) so I am wary. He would love a bit of rain.

Hi World was OK without being spectacular last start (above) in the same race as Boban and Weary in what his first go against open company at G1 w-f-a level. He's drawn the carpark here and is friendless in the betting but he will be a better horse up to the mile. He's had two wins and a fourth here at this very track in the G3 Carbine Club Stakes (behind Kermadec and Stratum Star) on Derby Day last year.

Volkstok'n'barrell probably needed the run first-up (above) and given it was his first go racing that way of going I think he gets a pass mark. He ticks quite a few boxes because he's never been beaten second-up, he's unbeaten at 1600m and jockey Craig Williams has won this race three times including two of the last four. The wide barrier doesn't help because it's a short run to the first turn. They may press forward so don't be surprised to see him ridden closer to the lead tomorrow.

Fawkner ran second in this race last year behind the flying Dissident and he was resuming from a spell on that occasion too. His three other starts at this track and distance have resulted in a win and two seconds including a narrow defeat (below) in the G1 Emirates Stakes behind Happy Trails although that was back in 2012. He's a five time winner here at Flemington and in eight starts at 1600m he has four wins and three seconds. He'll be up in the first half dozen and I think he'll be in it for a long way.

Alpine Eagle has had just the one run here at Flemington (below) for a gutsy second in the G1 Australian Guineas when unsuited by a farcical tempo. He beat home Stratum Star and the unlucky Kermadec on that occasion and it his only defeat on a dry track to date. His last start was very similar where they went through the first half mile in a pedestrian 51.17 before dashing home in 35.41 so to come from eighth of ninth and finish second was a solid effort. This is his biggest test to date but with seven starts for four wins and three placings he's hard to write off.

All the rest will be at double figure odds but there are some at the longer odds I could entertain in exotics and don't forget three of the last five winners (Foreteller, Littorio and Shocking) have paid $15+. 

Happy Trails has failed to win first or second-up in his last three Spring Carnival preparations but his third-up runs have returned a win in the G2 Dato' Chin Nam Stakes (2012) and a fourth and a second in the last two G1 Underwood Stakes respectively. In his last five starts at Flemington he has won a G1 Turnbull Stakes, a G1 Emirates Stakes, a G1 Mackinnon Stakes and finished third in a G1 Australian Cup.  Rising Romance will benefit from her last start run and will probably need this hit-out too. Her best two runs in both her last two Spring campaigns came at her third and fourth starts. Entirely Platinum just can't seem to break through at G1 level but he always seems to be thereabouts. The knock is he's only won once in the last year and a half although he has placed in a G1 Orr Stakes, a G1 Memsie Stakes (see replay further above) and a G3 Naturalism Stakes. Two runs at Flemington for no placings. Mongolian Khan is on a Cups trail so he'll probably need the run as his best performances to date have been at 2000m+. Trainer Murray Baker thinks this will be too short for him but his first three career starts were at 1400m-1600m and he did win two of them albeit in much weaker company. Smokin' Joey had an internal bleed last start so overlook that run and his form prior was impressive. He was beaten a nostril (below) by Boban in the G1 Emirates Stakes at this course and distance but that was almost two years ago. Of concern is the fact that he's been unplaced 13 times in 17 starts here and unplaced in 10 of his 12 attempts at 1600m. Prince Of Penzance was the best of the closers in the aforementioned G1 Memsie Stakes apart from Weary. I get the feeling that like a few others he may still need another run but he's two from two at the mile. He has four top two finishes from six starts at Flemington but all beyond 1600m. If there is a complete blowout it will be Gust Of Wind steaming down the outside at $67. Loved her final 100m in the G2 Warwick Stakes first-up.

Locky's Selections

1. Fawkner
3. Boban

11. Volkstok'n'barrell

2. Happy Trails

OTHER BETS

Import

Silverball (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) has been impressive since coming to Australia with three wins and two seconds from just the seven starts. Third-up last prep he won and he does boast a win here at Rosehill over the 2000m. He was only just pipped by the talented Magic Hurricane last start and it was a further three lengths back to the next horse Kapour and he's no slouch. He's going to be very skinny odds so maybe use him as an anchor leg in your multis.

Form Line

Music Magnate (Rosehill Race 4 No. 4) made Fell Swoop work to win last start and they gapped third which is always a good sign. The winner has since won again and regular readers will know I have a big opinion of him so I think we can follow this lightly raced 4-y-o with some confidence. He also boasts a win over Inz'n'out who has won his last two starts by a combined margin of six lengths and a narrow second to Peeping (also when second-up) in the Listed Fireball Stakes in March this year.

Each-way

Under The Louvre (Flemington Race 6 No. 5) caught the eye fresh when charging home behind Bounding. He has six wins and four placings from 11 goes at 1200m and he's a two time winner second-up in three attempts. His overall record here at Flemington doesn't read very well but his last start here was a win over subsequent G1 winner Lucky Hussler in October last year. That was over 1400m but he has also been placed down the straight.

Family Ties

Platinum Rocker (Flemington Race 8 No. 9) is one of three runners in this race for the father and son training team of Lee and Shannon Hope. Their stepson/stepbrother Blake Shinn rode Fenway at her last two starts for a win in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and a second in the G1 ATC Oaks. He steered Madam Gangster to her last start win. Yet he is riding this mare tomorrow? Perhaps I'm reading to much into this but she is dropping back to fillies and mares grade after two good seconds against the boys. A five time winner at 1400m.

G2 Chelmsford Stakes Day - 05.09.2015

There are two words that people use far too freely for my liking. One is the word champion. The other is the word legend.

I have absolutely no hesitation whatsoever using them when reflecting on the stellar career of Bart Cummings.

The racing community does indeed mourn a true champion and a legend. My thoughts are with all your family and friends. You will be sadly missed.

R.I.P. mate. I hope one day many years from now I get a chance to catch up for a chat on that great racetrack in the sky.

Bart holds aloft his 12th and final Melbourne Cup following Viewed's victory in 2008.

Who's hot?

We'll follow on the Cummings theme because Bart's last 10 runners (in partnership with grandson James) won three races and placed in three more. That included a metro Sydney winner last weekend (Sultry Feeling) from just the one runner and a double the following day at Wyong.

James assumed the mantle as head trainer for the first time on Wednesday and he bagged a double at Canterbury. 

He has two runners in Sydney tomorrow - Ruling Dynasty (Randwick Race 2 No. 6) and Precedence (Randwick Race 6 No. 11) plus a couple of runners at Newcastle that are given strong chances.

RANDWICK

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Heavy 9. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower. ***

The green dot is Randwick. The good news is that since 9am today there has been no more rain.

Chelmsford Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Hartnell is first-up and when produced fresh last prep (below) he was a half length second to stablemate Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes. You could make an argument that had the barriers been reversed so would have been the result. He's adept on wet tracks so he won't be bothered by any rain and he's never missed a top two finish in four attempts at 1600m. The stable enjoyed a Black Type double at Rosehill last weekend. Four wins on soft tracks.

Kermadec won the G1 Doncaster Mile (below) at this track and distance back in April at his only run on an affected surface so if the heavens open he should be fine too. It was a dominant win but he did get in with just 51kg and Royal Descent meets him 4.5kg better off here. I've got a feeling his Grand Final is the G1 Epsom Handicap in four weeks time and he could still win but the barrier, his racing pattern and what looks to be a muddling tempo are against him.

Royal Descent broke her long winless drought (below) in the G2 Warwick Stakes last start and she's super consistent at the Randwick mile. Despite no wins in six attempts she has five seconds - the G1 Doncaster Mile (2014), G1 Epsom Handicap, G2 Chelmsord Stakes and the last two G1 George Main Stakes plus a third (above) in the G1 Doncaster Mile (2015). Trainer Chris Waller has had 12 Sydney metro winners in five meetings since the start of the new season. Hugh Bowman ride four winners last weekend. Handles wet ground.

Pornichet looked the winner last start (above) but just couldn't sprint as quickly as Royal Descent. Second run last campaign he finished fifth in a pretty average G2 Ajax Stakes but he was a lot sharper first-up this prep. Going on last start they'll probably press forward from the awkward barrier and should get there easily enough given the lack of speed in the race. Finished fifth behind Kermadec in the aforementioned G1 Doncaster Mile beaten three lengths. Rain no concern.

If you like anything else you're going to get $15+. Of the rest Beaten Up really caught the eye in that same G2 Warwick Stakes and he did run second to Hawkspur in this race two years ago. He's drawn to get a lovely rails run too. It's Somewhat (1E) was in the same race and was disappointing on face value after being well fancied in the market. Hawkspur has won the last two renewals of this race but they are his only two victories since June 2013 (27:2-0-3). Three wins and five placings on affected tracks. I'm Imposing probably the best of the rest.

Locky's Selections

16. Royal Descent

1. Hartnell

2. Pornichet
4. Beaten Up

MOONEE VALLEY

*** At time of publication the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower in the morning. ***

Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes (Group 2, 1600m, w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

I'll only take a quick look at this race because we have an odds-on favourite and the race does look to have a very long tail. Contributer had his first look at the circuit when he sailed through a track gallop on Tuesday morning in good fashion. He's the one best suited by the w-f-a conditions and drew a great barrier. The class act of the field but the question is do you want to step in at the skinny odds? The Cleaner (three from three at the MV 1600m) and Mourinho ran the quinella in this race last year (below) and have a combined record of nine wins and five placings at this track from 18 starts. They also ran the quinella last start (albeit in a different order) in the G2 P.B. Lawrence Stakes three weeks ago. Both will strip fitter for the run. Foreteller was third in this race last year and his only other two runs at Moonee Valley produced top five finishes in the last two G1 Cox Plates. His first-up effort in the G2 Warwick Stakes (which can be seen further above) was a sound return. Dibayani probably the next best on his last start effort but he hasn't won for 27 months.

Locky's Selections

5. The Cleaner

4. Contributer

3. Mourinho
1. Foreteller

OTHER BETS

Import

The United States (Moonee Valley Race 4 No.4) won narrowly last start but it was an impressive victory. He got back in the early stages, got shuffled back further as they bunched approaching the turn and then was forced to switch across heels but when he got balanced his finishing burst was devastating. His only other run at the track was this time last year and he finished third to Mourinho.

On The Up

Fell Swoop (Moonee Valley Race 6 No.9) is one I've been following as loyal readers will very well know. I see no reason to jump off the bandwagon. Eight starts for six wins (and it should be seven) and the form around him is holding up. Gets in on the minimum weight and Damien Oliver takes the ride. There's a lot to like about this bloke and I think he could develop into a nice horse. First start in Melbourne is my only concern but they also accepted at Randwick and scratched him to run here.

Fell Swoop bolts in two starts ago beating Inz'n'out who has since won twice by big margins

Comeback Trail

Teronado (Doomben Race 7 No. 5) resumed at Doomben a fortnight ago after nearly a year on the sidelines injured. It was a pleasing return in a race well short of his best distance and don't be surprised if he takes a lot of improvement from that and jumps out of the ground here. Four second up runs for two wins, a second and a fifth behind Hucklebuck in the G3 C.S. Hayes Stakes at Flemington. Two wins here at Doomben including one at this trip and he won on this day last year.