27.06.2015

Expect a much more abbreviated and less frequent weekly write-up over the next two months with no more G1 racing until late August but I will still endeavor to find a few winners over the coming weeks.

Assume Rosehill will be slow, if not heavy.

Who's hot?

Jason Coyle has had 10 winners from his last 29 runners at a strike rate of 34.5%.

His best chance tomorrow appears to be Berry Delicious (Rosehill Race 7 No. 5).

Mudlark

Queen Of Kariba (Rosehill Race 5 No. 7) has had 11 career starts for four wins and a third but her wet track stats read five starts for three wins and a third including back-to-back victories at her last two appearances by good margins. Winona Costin is coming off a metropolitan double at Randwick last weekend.

One To Follow

De Little Engine (Flemington Race 6 No. 7) is one I tipped last start and I may have gone off one start too soon. He was straight to 2500m third-up and wasn't suited by a farcical tempo. He should be at the top of his game now fourth run in and with a run at 2500m under his belt he looks ready to get the chocolates.

Blue Blood

Our Voodoo Prince (Rosehill Race 4 No. 3) is by three-time French G1 winner Kingmambo out of seven-time G1 winning mare Ouija Board which makes him a half-brother to 2014 G1 Epsom Derby winner Australia. He was a dual acceptor but Chris Waller has scratched him from Melbourne to run in Sydney.

Well Backed

Cafe Society (Rosehill Race 6 No. 1) opened at $11 and is now half that quote. He's a former international having his first run in this country and three starts back he ran third behind Contributer in the Listed Wolferton Handicap on the fifth day of last year's Royal Ascot carnival. He's had two trials in readiness for this and won the last one.

*** Beware the Mick Kent trained Good Value which was scratched from Melbourne to contest this event. He has solid wet track form and is ready to pounce after two runs back and this yard doesn't travel interstate often ***

Roughie

Bishops Castle (Flemington Race 5 No. 10) will give you a great sight for a long way from barrier one and with the claim for Jake Bayliss especially given his habit of racing on the pace. They bet as much as $34 and while that is long gone you will probably still get around $16 come race time. He won down the straight here three starts back.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Tatt's Tiara Day 2015

The last G1 of the 2014/15 racing season and the first ever run at the Gold Coast track.

We'll be looking at rain affected surfaces down the East Coast this weekend after quite a bit of wet weather during the week.

Who's hot?

Liam Birchley has had six winners in the last 12 days from just 14 runners including a double at Ipswich last weekend from just the three starters.

He has four runners at the Gold Coast tomorrow - Elusive Catch (Race 2 No. 10), Sugar Hit (Race 3 No. 11), Pop 'n' Scotch (Race 6 No. 9) and Time To Plunder (Race 8 No. 11).

Gold Coast

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 7. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the chance of a shower. ***

Tatt's Tiara (Group 1, 1400m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Vergara is an early scratching ***

Najoom is favourite but is also second emergency so she needs at least two horses above her to be scratched just to get to the barrier so I'm leaving her out of my selections but clearly she comes into calculations if she gets a run. Seven career starts for five wins and two seconds and she's had three starts at 1300m-1400m for three wins by a combined margin of 11+ lengths. Won on a slow track two starts back when she gapped them in the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas and then bolted in again in the G3 Fred Best Classic at Doomben last start. Has had a minor setback.

Srikandi won the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (below) at her last start but she could do it tough here from the extreme outside barrier. She may get across though because there doesn't appear to be a stack of early pace here and despite one blemish she is a pretty dynamic horse out of the barrier. She's also back to fillies and mares grade here and at w-f-a too and she has shown an affinity for this Gold Coast circuit. She might simply be better than them - much like Smokin' Joey was in last week's Listed Eye Liner Stakes.

Lumosty started favourite (above) when tenth behind Srikandi last time out but it may pay to overlook the run because she drew wide and got caught deep when the pace slackened down the back straight. She loomed on straightening but just ran out of puff late as you would expect after her torrid run. Back in grade here she can be highly competitive and her two wins prior to her last start failure were explosive. A wet track is no concern because she won her maiden on Slow 6 by nine lengths.

Catkins is chasing her first G1 win at her eighth attempt. She was fourth (below) in this race last year and hasn't missed a top three finish in 10 subsequent runs including a third in the G1 Myer Classic and seconds in both the G1 Canterbury Stakes and G1 Queen Of The Turf. Trainer Chris Waller used this race two years ago to break a similar run of outs for Red Tracer and he is in great touch with 10 feature race wins over the Winter Carnival from eight separate horses. She's drawn to get a good run, can sit handy to the speed, she handles all surfaces and like her stablemate Danchai last week she has a sense of timing.

Avoid Lightning was a good third (above) in this race last year and she has seven wins and two seconds from 10 starts on wet tracks. She was brave last start under the 60kg when just nabbed late and the inside barrier is a plus. No wins beyond 1200m but she will appreciate the weight relief. She's an 11 time winner - of this lot only Catkins (15) has won more races. She's ultra-consistent with five wins and four placings from her last 11 runs. Given all the rain they've had and the threat of even more showers she could be the "omen" tip.

Of the ones listed at double figure odds Hazard beat Catkins last start and apart from a luckless second-up run she's won her other four starts this prep. Real Surreal is on the seven day back-up after her barnstorming win at Ipswich last Saturday and her only start here resulted in a win in the Magic Millions. Solicit looks like getting a lovely run from a good barrier and after two good runs with big weights for Gerald Ryan she'll appreciate the w-f-a conditions. Politeness has been below par at her last two starts but her two runs prior to that were good and she is capable on her day. Rose Of Choice has had two runs back now and is ready to peak and she's been solid if not spectacular in both. Peron has been desperately unlucky at her last few starts and she's fared poorly in the barrier draw here but she could bob up without surprising. Dublin Lass is in winning form and so is the stable but this is her biggest test to date. Peggy Jean isn't the worst and Bound For Earth is a rough place hope too.

A top field and a wide open race. A fitting G1 finale.

Locky's Selections

4 Catkins
6 Avoid Lightning
1 Srikandi
7 Solicit

Other Races

Alcohol (Moonee Valley Race 6 No. 3) is making the journey over from his Morphetville base and trainer Richard Jolly doesn't do that often and it's usually a fair indicator that they are ready to rumble. His 1600m record is good (5:2-0-2) and he's previously won here at the Moonee Valley mile and he's looking for that trip now after two runs at the 1200m.

Blue Blood

Lucky Lago (Gold Coast Race 5 No. 6) is by super sire and G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner Encosta De Lago out of G1 Australian Oaks winner Dizelle. Good barrier. Well weighted. Jockey fresh off a win in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap. Stable has won five Black Type races during the Winter Carnival so far from limited numbers. Subject of early support. Has been chasing home the flying Strawberry Boy at her last two starts. This is easier.

Well Backed

Dothraki (Gold Coast Race 8 No. 3) went up $6.50 but that was quickly gone and he's now a solid second favourite at $4.40. Forget he even went around last start because he drew a horrible gate. His second-up record makes good reading. Hoop Damian Browne had a winning treble at Ipswich last weekend and at the risk of sounding like a broken record this Snowden mob go OK.

Roughie

Georgey Aeroplane (Randwick Race 8 No. 10) has good wet track form and the track in Sydney could be bottomless by the time we get to the last. I liked the way he attacked the line last time out when resuming and clearly someone else did too because he's $12 into $9 but I think we still might get double figure odds on the day.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Ipswich Cup Day 2015

This won't be a comprehensive blog with the feature program being three Listed races at Ipswich but I will return next week with an in-depth look at the final G1 race of the season.

There do still appear to be a few good bets around and let's face it I'm due after a horror day in Brisbane last Saturday which featured nine selections for no less than five seconds, one third and a scratching to top it all off.

Who's hot?

Local hoop Jim Byrne has had a good Winter Carnival with Black Type winners Jabali, Werther, Typing, Leebaz and Neo. He knows the Ipswich track well too after bagging a treble here on this day last year including the Gai Waterhouse Classic on Jazz Song and the Eye Liner Stakes aboard Alma's Fury.

He has a full book at Ipswich tomorrow but his best chances appear to be Mischievous Devil (Race 2 No. 4), Hi Son (Race 6 No. 4), Riva De Lago (Race 7 No. 2) and Fare Well (Race 8 No. 8).

Ipswich

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the chance of showers. ***

Ipswich Cup (Listed, 2150m, quality handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

Volkhere has been consistent without winning in recent starts but this is a much easier assignment. Three starts back he was a length second to Pornichet in the Listed Toowoomba Cup and that horse would be $1.04 here. Last Saturday he was less than a length and a half off winner Jetset Lad in the G2 Brisbane Cup. He carries more weight this weekend but at just 1.5kg over the minimum I think he is well placed.

Speaking of Jetset Lad - Baligari beat him home in the G3 Premier's Cup at Doomben three weeks ago. The Kennewell family have had good success in Queensland in recent years with Lloyd winning the G3 Tatt's Cup with Rialya two years ago - the same year his father Gary claimed the Listed Eye Liner Stakes here with Conservatorium.

Danchai was nominated in Sydney as well but he's made the float trip north for the harder race so the stable is clearly confident. This bloke had a forgettable Spring but his first campaign in Australia was promising. He resumed from a six month spell just over a month ago and his two runs back have been sound. He has a sense of timing about him. Well backed.

Shotover River is somewhat of a track specialist with two wins and a placing from four starts at Ipswich. He boasts two wins at the distance and has only missed a place once in six goes between 2100m-2200m. A last start winner and my best roughie.

Locky's Selections

3 Volkhere
8 Baligari
6 Danchai
9 Shotover River

Other Races

Shards (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) chased home Press Statement last start and that horse looked very impressive (below) winning the G1 J.J. Atkins at Doomben last Saturday. They gapped third which is a pretty good sign. He'll be a very short price but he should just win.

Well Backed

De Little Engine (Flemington Race 4 No. 7) opened $4.80 but was quickly backed into $3.70. His fresh run two starts back over the unsuitably short 1600m was a slasher. That may have taken something out of him because he looked a bit flat last start but his run was still good behind subsequent G1 Queensland Derby winner Magicool. Third run back now and he should be ready to fire and he is a previous winner at the track and distance.

Roughie

Champagne Cocktail (Flemington Race 3 No. 14) has had two placings from two starts and was probably unlucky not to win last time out when well supported. The horses she chased home on debut have since performed well and she looks to have a bit of ability. Someone is confident because she's $81 into $34.

Blue Blood

Our Racketeer (Ipswich Race 3 No. 12) is by G1 Emirates Stakes winner All American out of G1 Oakleigh Plate winner Miss Kournikova. At his only start (when he was well backed) he got a mile back after drawing poorly but I liked the way he hit the line and the step from 1000m to 1100m suits. $34 into $11.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Stradbroke Day 2015

The G1 Stradbroke Handicap and it is being run over 1350m at Doomben so all the stats and history basically go out the window with this effectively being a "Stradbroke 10,000" with the only difference being we are at handicap rather than w-f-a conditions.

It may pay to watch the first few races before having a bet to see how the Doomben track is playing. This is the fourth meeting here in 29 days with a few on wet surfaces and the track is showing some signs of wear with many recent winners swooping down the outside.

Maybe I'm just too superstitious but you can't spell "Doomben Stradbroke" without "DOOM" and "BROKE".

Who's hot?

Peter Moody had three winners at Moonee Valley last weekend plus one at Morphettville for a two-state quaddie. He's had some recent Black Type success too with Upham and Flamberge. In past years he's been lucky on this day with winners in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (Mid Summer Music), G1 Queensland Derby (Brambles, Riva San) and G2 Brisbane Cup (Floria, Lights Of Heaven).

His best chances at the feature Doomben meeting look to be Bring Me The Maid (Race 4 No. 4), Ulmann (Race 5 No. 17), Basset (Race 6 No. 3) and Upham (Race 7 No. 2) but he also has a host of runners at Moonee Valley and a few at Randwick too. 

Doomben

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day. ***

Stradbroke Handicap (Group 1, 1350m, handicap)

Current Sportsbet market

*** Lord Of The Sky is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - N/A: The race is being run at Doomben and with the switching of race dates it makes the stats largely irrelevant. I can tell you though that five of the last seven winners returned $21-$31 and only one favourite has saluted in the last 10 years.

"The Speed Map" says - Bad barriers for Hot Snitzel, Temple Of Boom and Fontelina mean they probably have to push forward. I expect Srikandi, El Roca and Sacred Star will all try to take advantage of their good barriers. Pace should be genuine if not breakneck.

I'll start with the first seven over the line in the G1 Doomben 10,000 (below) a fortnight ago because all of them are in the top half of the market here.

Boban won the race - his first since March last year and it was a strong if narrow victory when first up for 12 weeks. He seems to have an affinity for the circuit because that's now two wins and a second from three starts here at the Doomben 1350m. He meets all his rivals worse off at the weights but you'd think he'd take improvement from the run and the Waller stable is winning everything. No horse has won this race carrying more than 56kg since Rough Habit (58.5kg) in 1992.

Charlie Boy (second) was just behind Boban and meets him 4kg better off here. Prior to that he won at this course and distance when claiming the G3 BRC Sprint so he has clearly thrived since coming to Queensland. He's another from an in-form stable. The good barrier will probably see him parked midfield in a perfect position to pounce on the home turn. If he can dash at the end of this race the same way he did last start he'll be right in the finish with just 54kg on his back.

Generalife (third) loomed as the winner halfway down the straight but his condition just seemed to give out in the final stages - possibly because he was five weeks in between runs. He'll strip fitter here and meets Boban 3.5kg better at the weights but Charlie Boy 0.5kg worse off. His run in the G1 All Aged Stakes (below) has him right in this but he will have to start from the extreme outside barrier so he'll likely be spotting them a big start. Look for him to be charging late.

Knoydart (fourth) did what Knoydart always does - he got back, ran on and caught the eye and no doubt a few suckers will fall into him again here. Sooner or later he will win a nice race but I've lost patience with him so unfortunately he's been banished to the "Never To Be Backed Again Under Any Circumstances" corner. He will have to pass a vet test in the morning too after he was found to be short in his action today. Just watch him come out and bolt in now that I've put the mock on him and leave me looking like an idiot.

Sacred Star (fifth) was first-up in the race and is sure to take benefit from the run but he'd need to because the first three looked clearly superior and he'll be meeting Charlie Boy, Generalife and Knoydart worse at comparative weights. He's a four time winner at the trip and a three time winner second-up. He did run fifth in this race last year at Eagle Farm (below) sprinting home well off an unsuitable tempo also at his second run in.

Srikandi (sixth) was disappointing after looming as the winner at the top of the straight but she was placed in this race last year (above) so she can't be dismissed entirely. That race was at Eagle Farm however but her Doomben from had been terrific until a month ago. Back to handicap conditions could help her turn her form around because she drops to 53kg here but she needs to lift.

Rock Sturdy (2E) (seventh) came along the rail and sprinted quickly before being collared late. He was stuck on the rail in a race where the first four came from back and wide down the crown of the track so perhaps the margin was a tad unfair. Trainer Joe Pride only brought a handful of horses north for the Winter Carnival but he's had success with Kuro and Ball of Muscle. If you are the type who looks for blowout results and big priced roughies he could be your guy.

Now on to the other form lines.

Lumosty is now securely in the field and will run our favourite. She has been impressive at her two runs back from a spell with two dominant wins down the Flemington straight by a combined margin of nearly six lengths. The trip shouldn't be a concern as she broke her maiden with a nine length romp over 1423m on a Slow 6 at Sale. The worry is that all of her runs have been in Victoria and she has never been tested this way of going.

Black Heart Bart caught the eye fresh when he came from last for a fast finishing fourth (below) in the G1 Goodwood at his last run. He was forced to switch from the rails and come very wide and he was doing his best work late after finally seeing daylight. The trouble is he could face the same problem here tomorrow because jockey Glenn Smith faces a Herculean task to weave a passage through from that awkward barrier. 

Delectation has a lot of ability but he does a lot of things wrong and you just can't afford to do that when you take on top company. Mind you he does remind me a bit of 2007 winner Sniper's Bullet. He ran second with 60kg when well tried in his lead up run then dropped to 50kg and won the G1 feature. This horse drops from 59kg to 52kg and was also placed at his last run when he started favourite.

The rest are likely to start $21+ but of the others Hot Snitzel faces a task from a wide barrier but he has Blake Shinn on board and he is riding well. Team Snowden just keep training winners and he is a last start winner (below) of the G1 BTC Cup. Both El Roca and Fast 'n' Rocking have light weights and good barriers and are capable of running a good race on their day.

Locky's Selections

8 Charlie Boy
1 Boban
16 Delectation
18 Rock Sturdy

Other Doomben Races

Into The Red (Listed Hinkler Handicap Doomben Race 1 No. 3) showed last start what most people knew he was capable of from an early age. Gelding has been the key to this bloke because he looks much more switched on now. Two from four at the Doomben 1200m start. $7.50 into $4.60 in early betting says some people think he can repeat here.

Harlem River (Listed Lancaster Stakes Doomben Race 2 No. 6) tried hard on debut when second in the Listed Woodlands Stakes at Scone three weeks ago. Flippant did defeat her that day but the step up from 1100m to 1200m could see this filly turn the tables. Waterhouse stable has been in good nick lately - think Pornichet, Najoom, Bohemian Lily and Frespanol.

Flamingo Star (Listed Wayne Wilson Plate Doomben Race 3 No. 3) did enough at his first run in this country to suggest he is above average when eighth (below) in the G1 Doomben 10,000 a fortnight ago. He was right in the firing line until the furlong then seemed to peak on his run but he'll strip fitter for the outing. He's a four time winner in Europe from 1600m-1700m and this is a much easier assignment.

Catkins (G2 Dane Ripper Stakes Doomben Race 4 No. 1) has finished in the quinella at 22 of her last 29 starts. That is remarkable. She seems to thrive on these sort of races too - fillies and mares grade at set weights plus penalties. Hugh Bowman back in the saddle is a big plus too because he's ridden this mare to six wins.

Ulmann (G2 Queensland Guineas Race 5 No. 17) is first emergency so he may not get a start here but if he does I think he's right in the mix. He chased home Winx last start and we all know what she did last week. His only other start at the mile was a victory at Sandown three starts back. Barrier six is an advantage too from the tricky 1600m start at Doomben.

Bassett (G1 J.J. Atkins Stakes Doomben Race 6 No. 3) cruised to victory on debut and his stablemate who ran second subsequently won well last weekend at Moonee Valley when well tried. As previously mentioned it's good to draw well at this tricky starting position and he'll be near the lead in a race where I doubt they'll go fast because it's 2-y-o's stepping to 1600m for the first time. 1100m straight to 1600m the only concern but this Moody bloke knows his stuff.

Werther (G1 Queensland Derby Doomben Race 7 No. 1) took care of the older horses pretty easily last start and the rest of this bunch seem to have been going around in the same races for the last month with not too much between them. I think it could be a very similar case to Winx last week - I think he might just be better than them and it wouldn't surprise me if he won by a suburb.

Sense Of Occasion (G2 Brisbane Cup Race 9 No. 10) is a talented young horse on the way up in a race where nine of the 13 runners are almost 7-y-o (or older) and seem to be trading on old form. He hasn't missed a top two finish in four runs this campaign and trainer Joe Pride is having a pretty profitable Winter Carnival. Perhaps now he can finally afford to get his hair cut by someone other than Eddie Munster's barber.

Well Backed

Magic Hurricane (Randwick Race 3 No. 9) is $7.50 into $4.60 on the back of steady support so obviously there is mail to suggest this new acquisition for the Godolphin stable can produce fresh. He's a former UK galloper now trained in Australia and he did have pretty good form overseas. Brodie Loy won't be able to claim his full 3kg allowance but the horse will still carry just 52kg. 

Roughie

The Bees Knees (Doomben Race 2 No. 7) is another who has attracted early market support ($67 into $34) and his debut win at Ipswich was full of merit. He was slow out of the machine but managed to recover before racing away to score a one and a half length win. Luke Tarrant rode him on debut and stays solid. He has a wide barrier though so I hope the jockey takes a bit more care getting across than he did last week.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!