William Reid Stakes / BMW Day 2015

The third and weakest day of Rosehill's 3-day carnival IMO and somewhat of a let down after last Saturday's bumper card but there are still some good types going around and plenty of winners to be found.

It will be a softish track after the course copped in excess of 35mm of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday but fortunately they have had some good drying weather the last few days so it won't be an absolute bog.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Trainer Mick Kent only has a small team but his strike rate of late has been phenomenal. In the last 19 days he has had 17 runners and has notched seven wins. Last weekend he had three metro runners for one winner (Scratchy Bottom) and two placegetters (Written and Aggregator) and the winners continued at Geelong on Sunday and Pakenham yesterday.

He has two runners at the stand alone Mornington meeting tomorrow - Alittle Loose (Race 4 No. 9) and Epingle (Race 9 No. 7). 

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 5. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** Rising Romance is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - N/A: Due to the race dates for the Sydney Carnival changing in recent years due to the inception of "The Championships" the history of this race is somewhat irrelevant. Six of the last seven winners came via the G1 Ranvet Stakes but previously there was a two week break and few will do the seven day back-up here.

"The Speed Map" says - Fast Dragon the leader. Hampton Court could take it up too with the light weight but only if he turns up in the mood to race. Silent Achiever will probably roll forward from her wide barrier. Hartnell should get a good run just off the speed. Ditto Lucia Valentina. The rest will drift back.

To The World is from Japan. That should scare the hell out of you. I know it frightens the living daylights out of me. They travel their horses all over the world and they usually just win. Think Real Impact in last Saturday's G1 George Ryder Stakes. He's had 10 starts for four wins, four seconds and a two and a half length fifth in the G1 Japan Derby. His only failure was when they tried to stretch him to the 3000m of the G1 Japan St Leger. He's never missed the quinella in four first-up runs. At his last start he came off a two month break to run second over 2500m in the G1 Arima Kinen (below) behind Gentildonna - a seven time G1 winner and two time Japanese Horse of the Year.

Hartnell opened $4 but that was quickly snapped up. He's had just the two starts in Australia and was dominant in winning the G3 Sky High Stakes last time out following up on his slashing first-up second behind Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below). You could make an argument that he would have beaten his stablemate had the runs been reversed and that form is arguably the best in the country at the moment. This bloke has won up to 3200m so the journey should present no problem and from the good barrier he should get the run of the race.

Lucia Valentina was tipped here last week and only w-f-a star Contributer and Japanese raider Tosen Stardom beat her home. She was beaten just under a length in last year's G1 Caulfield Cup behind Admire Rakti (below) so she has shown she can be competitive with the international raiders. That was also her fourth run into her campaign. Her only other run at 2400m was an unlucky third in the G1 ATC Oaks last year when she got too far back. Trainer Kris Lees would have been pleased to see the rain during the week because she handles it better than most.

Protectionist is getting up to a trip that suits now after runs in the G2 Peter Young Stakes and the G1 Australian Cup (below). Some people will fret over the outside barrier but given that he's going to drift back it shouldn't be a problem. The 2400m may still be too short for him and I think the G1 Sydney Cup on the bigger course at Randwick in two weeks time will be more his go. Still, it's hard to entirely dismiss the internationals when we get up to these trips because the locals do seem to struggle.

Silent Achiever has been solid if not flashy this prep chasing home the flying Contributer each time. The last two years she has gone into this race at her fourth run for a win last year and a narrow second to Fiveandahalfstar in 2013. Fourth run in last Spring she was a close-up third behind Adelaide in the G1 Cox Plate (below). She has a real sense of timing about her and she has an affinity for Rosehill. Six starts here - all in G1's - for two wins (Ranvet, BMW), a second (BMW), a third (Rosehill Guineas), a fourth (Ranvet) and a fifth (Ranvet).

They represent the top five in the market but of the others although Opinion isn't suited by the w-f-a conditions his only start at the Rosehill 2400m resulted in a second to The Offer in the G3 Manion Cup last year. He was good last start in the G3 Sky High Stakes when he ran past all bar Hartnell. Who Shot Thebarman was good in that race too and he has had seven starts at 2400m or beyond for four wins and a third in a G1 Melbourne Cup. Extra Zero ran out of his skin in the G1 Australian Cup (above) and he is ultra consistent. In his last 18 starts he has only missed a top three finish twice in a sequence that stretches back to February last year. He'll get a good trail from the inside barrier too.

Locky's Selections

7 To The World
8 Hartnell
10 Lucia Valentina
4 Opinion

Moonee Valley (TONIGHT)

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for the chance of a shower tonight. ***

William Reid Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Rebel Dane: Nine of the last 12 winners paid $5.50 or less. Black Caviar is the only female to win in the last seven years.

"The Speed Map" says - I expect Galaxy Pegasus, Earthquake and Vezelay will try to take advantage of their good barriers and light weights. Angelic Light is drawn to get a lovely run here. It Is Written won't be too far away. If the pace is on look for Rebel Dane, Famous Seamus, Bel Sprinter, Vain Queen and Peron to be charging late. But I can't see this being run at breakneck speed so on-pacers look advantaged.

Angelic Light ran really well last Spring over this course in the G1 Manikato Stakes (below) without much luck. She's had seven starts here at the Valley for three wins and three placings including two wins and two seconds from five goes at the 1200m. Her only "miss" was a fourth behind Buffering, Lankan Rupee and Rebel Dane in the G1 Moir Stakes beaten less than a length. Her first-up form is pretty good (4:1-1-2).

Rebel Dane also contested the G1 Manikato Stakes (above) and was another member of the "if only" brigade. The record books will say he ran fourth beaten around a quarter of a length but he was just one of the many hard luck stories. He's had five first-up runs and he won his first three before running second to Lankan Rupee in the G1 T.J.Smith Stakes at his fourth attempt. His most recent first-up run resulted in a half-length third in the G2 Missile Stakes at Randwick last August when he chased home last weekend's G1 Galaxy winner Sweet Idea. 

Famous Seamus has had just one start here at Moonee Valley for a third in the G1 Manikato Stakes last October (above) and he was unlucky not to win given he didn't see daylight until it was practically all over. Trainer Noel Mayfield-Smith dodged the big weight and the wide draw in the G1 Galaxy last weekend to come here at w-f-a conditions. He's been well backed early ($21 into $14) and he's my best roughie.

Vain Queen ran on strongly for fourth in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) and she meets both Earthquake and It Is Written a kilo better off at the weights for beating them home. She should improve away from Caulfield too because her record there is terrible (5:1-0-0). Her record at other tracks makes much more impressive reading (8:6-0-0) and she's one form one here at the Moonee Valley 1200m.  Just don't back her for the place. She either wins or runs fourth. 

Earthquake is a very good filly and she's probably paying the price for her outstanding two-year-old season because although her overall record is pretty good (11:5-2-2) you'd have to say her 3-y-o season has been disappointing (6:1-1-2). Her only try against older horses was two starts back in the G1 Oakleigh Plate (above) and it was an average run. She improved last start back to 3-y-o fillies grade with a big weight but she still has to prove she can match it with the big guns. 

Of the rest I think the next best is It Is Written because he loves Moonee Valley - seven of his 10 career wins have come here. Three starts back he split Mourinho and Dissident in the G2 Australia Stakes at this track and distance. Peron has ability and was good first-up but the barrier and the pattern look to be against her here.

Locky's Selections

7 Angelic Light
2 Famous Seamus
1 Rebel Dane
6 It Is Written

Other bets

Under The Louvre (Mornington Race 8 No. 3) caught the eye in the G1 Oakleigh Plate when flashing home for second fresh beating home the aforementioned Vain Queen and Earthquake (see video above). He's never missed a place second-up and won his only start here at Mornington over this distance. He hasn't missed a top three finish in his last seven starts. At just two kilos over the minimum he looks thrown in here. Opened $4.40.

San Diego (Rosehill Race 3 No. 7)  landed some big bets two starts back when he arrived just in time to score in his first run for more than a year. He followed that up with a fighting third in the G2 Ajax Stakes behind Burbero who franked the form last weekend with a massive effort in the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Opened $5.50.

Set Square (Rosehill Race 6 No. 2)  could be the one to cause an upset if First Seal is off her game. She won the G1 VRC Oaks (below) last prep so the step up to 2000m sees her finally in a distance range that suits. She's one of only two horses in the field to have won at the journey and she chased home Noble Protector last start. That mare split Contributer and Signoff during the Spring and will start odds-on at Moonee Valley tonight. Opened $8.50.

Ruling Dynasty (Rosehill Race 8 No. 9) has had two starts at 2000m or further and he's won them by a combined margin of almost 10 lengths. It comes as no surprise given his dam is a daughter of a G1 Kentucky Derby/G1 Belmont Stakes winner and his sire Medaglia D'Oro was placed in a G1 Dubai World Cup. That stallion also produced last weekend's G1 Golden Slipper winner Vancouver. He's been brought along patiently by the Cummings team (he didn't have his first race until last December) and he's on a G1 ATC Derby path. He'd want to show something here to warrant pressing on towards that goal. Opened $6.00.

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Golden Slipper Day 2015 preview

The $3.5M G1 Golden Slipper. The richest 2-y-o race in the world. Can Gai Waterhouse win it for a sixth time? Or will it be one the four runners in the royal blue silks of Goldolphin? Perhaps it will be an upset by one of Team Hawkes two entrants or maybe even one of the fillies from the in-form Hayes/Dabernig yard.

The Kiwi 3-y-o's hit our shores looking to take our prizemoney back across the ditch in the G1 Rosehill Guineas but they have to get past a couple of good locals. International raiders from Japan and Hong Kong feature in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and the G1 Ranvet Stakes where five of the seven runners are paying $6 or less.

I haven't even got to the G1 Galaxy yet - can Avoid Lightning give Tim Clark his third win in the race in the last eight years?

An intriguing days racing - and I can't wait !!!

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

James McDonald had seven rides at Rosehill last weekend for two wins, a second, two thirds, a fourth and a fifth. He's had 10 winners in the last 15 days.

He has a very strong book of rides at Rosehill tomorrow including Brook Road (Race 1 No. 6), Rising Romance (Race 2 No. 1), Contributer (Race 4 No. 1), Sweynesse (Race 5 No. 4), Knoydart (Race 6 No. 7), Exosphere (Race 7 No. 5) and Bagman (Race 9 No. 1). 

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower. ***

Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** Look To The Stars is an early scratching ***

"The Scriptures" say - Exosphere: 18 of the last 19 winners paid $13 or less. Only three favourites have won in the last 25 years. Nine of the last 11 winners came from single digit barriers. The last 15 winners all had their last start in Sydney.

"The Speed Map" says - Plenty of on pace types here with Headwater, Furnaces, Haptic, Odyssey Moon, Speak Fondly and especially Haybah. Vancouver probably has to press forward from out there too. The run-on horses who will get the best runs from good draws are Lake Geneva, English, Serenade, Ottoman, Ready for Victory and Exosphere. Reemah, Fireworks and Single Gaze have to ride for luck from out there.

Vancouver is at the top of the market and although the overall record for favourites is bad they have won three of the last seven. There's a lot to like too. He can be up on the pace or take a sit as he has demonstrated. He's unbeaten going into this just like former Waterhouse winners Sebring and Pierro. Tommy Berry is no stranger to the occasion having won two years ago on Overreach. He won the G2 Todman Stakes by more than three lengths and they ran quick time. In the last six years Pierro, Sepoy and Phelan Ready all followed that same path. Barrier 18 is the only worry. 

Tommy Berry celebrates as Vancouver demolishes them in the G2 Todman Stakes

Exosphere is the main danger although you don't see too many Slipper winners coming via Kembla and Warwick Farm. When the emergencies come out he will start from barrier eight which gives James McDonald options. He's won his last two by big margins and it's hard not to be impressed by his four length win in the G2 Skyline Stakes. The last horse to come through that race was Dance Hero in 2004 but he did complete the double. Has the ability to sit off a hot tempo and still produce a blistering finish. The main danger.

Ready for Victory has to defy history. No horse has ever won this race at just their second start. The last winner who had their previous start in Victoria was Flying Spur some 20 years ago He jumps straight to 1200m from a 1000m Flemington straight win on debut. The win was outstanding given he came from near last after they walked early and sprinted home the last 600min 33.57sec. He was well backed too which caught me by surprise as I thought he'd need further being out of a Zabeel mare. He will be hitting the line hard.

Headwater is the one who could bounce back without really surprising. The reason I'm being forgiving is that so many winners of this race have been beaten once in the lead-up - Mossfun, Overreach and Sepoy spring to mind in recent years. The stable won this race last year and Glen Boss gets a late pick-up ride. The last time that happened he won on Flying Spur in 1995. He's bred to be a topline sprinter too - his sire won a G1 Newmarket Handicap and his dam won a G1 Oakleigh Plate.

English looks the best of the fillies. She's won two from two including a last start win in the G2 Reisling Stakes. That feature has produced four of the last nine winners - Mossfun, Overreach, Forensics and Miss Finland. Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times before. The general consensus is however that the boys are better this year and will dominate just like the fillies did last year when the first boy home was Ghibbelines (8th). One for multiples.

Of the others Furnaces has drawn well and was the first one home behind Vancouver last start. Reemah has a terrible barrier but given her racing pattern it may not be a total disaster.  She just missed Pride of Dubai in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (below) and that horse would be single figures here so I can't reconcile the price discrepancy. Lake Geneva was also good in the same race from a similar position and is drawn well here. Ottoman is one who could be steaming home if the leaders go crazy (as they usually do) and set it up for the swoopers. Haptic is unbeaten and drawn to get a cosy run near the lead.

Locky's Selections

5 Exosphere
1 Vancouver
8 English 
13 Ottoman

George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Sacred Falls: Four of the last six winners started at double figure odds. Only two favourites have won in the last 10 years. Pierro is the only 3-y-o to win in the last six years. Three of the last four winners came via the G1 Canterbury Stakes. Chris Waller has trained three of the last five winners. 

"The Speed Map" says - Cosmic Endeavour and Hooked to lead them up and probably without much pressure. Burbero won't be too far away. It's Somewhat should be handy to the lead. Ditto the 3-y-o's Shooting to Win and Kermadec. The Waller stable says Weary will be ridden more quietly this week. The rest to be back midfield or worse.

Shooting to Win should be approaching peak fitness now that he has had a couple of runs under his belt. He looked the winner first-up in the G2 Hobartville Stakes but just ran out of condition late. He was then forced into the unusual role of pacemaker in the G1 Randwick Guineas and he wasn't beaten far by Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse. Third run in last Spring he ran on from near last to claim third in the G1 Golden Rose (below) at this track. He then proceeded to win his next two starts in the G3 Stan Fox Stakes and the G1 Caulfield Guineas. He may still need one more run to peak for the G1 Doncaster Handicap in a fortnight so I'm risking him at the skinny quote here.

Cosmic Endeavour is peaking at the right time. She tried hard first-up for eight months with 60kg in the G3 Triscay before conceding 5kg to Danesiri when second behind her in the G3 Guy Walter Stakes. The run clearly did her no harm because she backed up seven days later to claim her second G1 and fourth Black Type race when defeating Catkins and Criterion in the G1 Canterbury Classic. The downside - no filly or mare has won this race for 28 years but that statistic may be misleading because previously this race was usually run on the same day as the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes.

Kermadec was tipped here two weeks ago when fourth in the G1 Australian Guineas (below). What happened has been well documented and connections have opted for a new rider in G1 Cox Plate/G1 Melbourne Cup winning jockey Ryan Moore. The wide gate shouldn't be a problem because there's not a lot of speed here and they have the length of the back straight to sort themselves out from the 1500m start. He gets a weight advantage from all bar one of his rivals and three kilos from most of them. Two starts ago he was in that blanket finish in the G2 Hobartville Stakes with Hallowed Crown and Sweynesse. He ticks a lot of boxes.

World Ace is one of the two Japanese horses entered for the race and I must confess I don't know a lot about either of them. I did manage to track down some footage of his last start fourth in the G1 Hong Kong Mile (below) however and he looked strong at the end in what is a top quality race. I loved the way he got going again after looking to be struggling half way down the straight. His last win was five starts ago in April last year when successful in the G2 Milers Cup at Kyoto.

Real Impact is the other Japanese raider and he appears to be a horse that takes a few runs to come to hand looking at his form. He's also had a minor setback this week with a small crack discovered in the wall of his near fore hoof. The problem is being monitored by the NSW Racing vet and with that in mind I'm going to look around him for other betting options.

Criterion tends to be a bit of a tease early in his preparation. He normally puts in a bottler first-up (as he did last start) and then takes a couple of runs to get over it and produce his best run later on in his campaign. He wouldn't be a total shock and he could lob into a place but I suspect they are looking at the $4M of the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in three weeks time.

It's Somewhat caught the eye at his first run in Australia and landed some good bets when he claimed the G3 Liverpool City Cup in impressive fashion. That was his first run in five months and he has just one third placing from three second-up runs so there's always the chance he could be a bit flat here.

If you're looking for some value to throw into your exotics Weary saves his best form for Rosehill with two wins and two placings from four starts. His seven starts at other tracks have yielded a second and two thirds. He won the G3 Doncaster Prelude and finished second in the G2 Ajax Stakes last Autumn - both over 1500m at Rosehill. I'm Imposing goes well here too - he's never missed a place in six starts over the Rosehill 1500m. Burbero is in great form. He hasn't missed a top two finish in his last eight starts. Two of those were wins were at this track and distance.

Locky's Selections

14 Kermadec
10 It's Somewhat
11 Cosmic Endeavour
6 Weary

Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

*** .There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Sweynesse: 11 of the last 13 winners have paid $8 or less but seven of the last 10 favourites have been beaten. Six of the last nine winners came via the G1 Randwick Guineas but only two of them completed the double.

"The Speed Map" says - Preferment and Pounamu go back. Hampton Court to lead. The four top fancies to sort themselves out somewhere in between. Volkstok'n'barrell should get a nice trail on the leader from the barrier. The other three have to try and slot in from those awkward barriers. It will be a tactical affair at a slow tempo I think.

Hallowed Crown has had seven starts for six wins. Five of those six were in Black Type races including his last start win (below) in the G1 Randwick Guineas. How do you knock that? His only defeat was behind last weekend's G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Brazen Beau. First they said he was simply a wet tracker but he has dispelled that myth. I'm sure there'll be plenty questioning him up to the 2000m trip tomorrow but he just keeps winning. Short enough with the bookies but how do you leave him out?

Sweynesse has finished second to Hallowed Crown both times they have met including that last start G1 Randwick Guineas (above) and he does look like he will relish the 2000m. He was beaten less than two lengths in last year's G1 Cox Plate behind the likes of Adelaide, Fawkner, Silent Achiever, Happy Trails and Criterion - what price those horses in this race? He's been safely held by Hallowed Crown both runs this campaign but you know he'll run the mile and a quarter whereas the other bloke still has to prove that.

Mongolian Khan is coming off victory in the G1 NZ Derby (below) and there is a precedent to say he can win because Jimmy Choux did complete the same double in 2011. Like Hallowed Crown he has won six from seven including his last five in a row. He's a versatile horse and his Derby win showed he's as tough as old boots but dropping from a grinding 2400m to a sit-and-sprint 2000m is a concern. If you're having quinellas, trifectas etc. he simply has to go in but how does the Kiwi form stack up this side of the Tasman?

Volkstok'n'barrell was a fighting second to Mongolian Khan in the G1 NZ Derby (above) and he is the only horse in the race that has never missed a place with five wins and three placings from his eight starts. The concern is that all his wins have come up to 1600m and when he has been asked to stretch to 2000m and further at his last two starts he's been beaten as favourite. He also has to drop from 2400m to 2000m off a three week break.

These four have scared everyone away so there's only three other runners and they are all $34+. Preferment could improve up to 2000m because he is a Zabeel and his two career best performances were at 2200m+. Damien Oliver is back on board and he has ridden the horse twice for a win in the G1 VRC Derby and a narrow second in the Listed Geelong Classic. Hampton Court is on a seven day back-up and jumps from 1600m to 2000m - the last time he did that he won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes last October beating First Seal and Sweynesse. Pounamu will probably drift back in the field and in all likelihood will stay there.

Locky's Selections

4 Sweynesse
1 Hallowed Crown
3 Mongolian Khan
2 Preferment

Other bets

Lucia Valentina (Rosehill Race 4 No. 7) won the G1 Turnbull Stakes (below) at her third run last preparation. Her previous campaign she claimed the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes third-up at this track and distance. In her only other prep she claimed the G3 Wellington Stakes at Otaki at just her third race start. Forget her last start failure because she's zero from four second-up. Rain would help but she has won on a dry track (the Turnbull Stakes no less) and she did run third in a G1 Caulfield Cup on a Good 3. Three goes at 2000m for two wins and a second. Opened $5.50.

Knoydart (Rosehill Race 6 No. 7) has never missed a place in four runs at Rosehill. He's had two starts at 1100m for a win and a half length third in last year's G1 Oakleigh Plate (below) behind Lankan Rupee and Spirit of Boom. He then chased home the same two horses at his next start when a one length third in the G1 Newmarket Handicap. He has two wins and a second from three runs second-up. He was hitting the line strongly first-up in the G2 Challenge Stakes behind Miracles of Life so he'll appreciate the step up to 1100m especially given that he will meet the mare three kilos better off this time. Opened $10.

Firehouse Rock (Moonee Vally TONIGHT Race 6 No. 2) was dropping back from 1800m to 1600m last start in the G1 Australian Guineas and was just burnt off his feet early but he hit the line as strongly as any of them. Prior to that he was a three quarter length third to Alpine Eagle in the G3 Autumn Classic. His only other start at this trip he was third to Fontein Ruby and Crafty in the G3 Caulfield Classic. Like tonight that was also his fifth run of his campaign. The stable is riding the crest of a wave too. Opened $7.00.

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Super Saturday preview

Well I've had some good winners in recent weeks and I'm confident we'll get more tomorrow so get ready to win some more cash!

Thank God my "Who's hot?" duo Lee and Shannon Hope got me the chocolates with Madam Gangster last week because it was an otherwise horrendous day. Danesiri scratched early in the morning, Tommy Berry is still looking for a run on Mihiri and the less said about Kermadec in the G1 Australian Guineas the better.

I did manage to find the First Four in the G1 Randwick Guineas ($25.10) but you didn't have to be a genius to figure that out and I can't really claim having the G1 Canterbury Stakes quinella ($5.00) among my Top 4 either because that was a no-brainer too.

So it's back to the drawing board this week for another massive day of racing with three Group 1 races and 13 other Black Type races across NSW and Victoria.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

It simply has to be Gai Waterhouse. Six winners last Saturday spread across Flemington, Randwick and Newcastle including a two-state Group 1 double. She's also had midweek winners at Hawkesbury, Randwick and Kembla Grange in the last week.

As usual she has quite a few runners tomorrow but her best chance appears to be Supara (Rosehill Race 8 No. 8).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

Newmarket Handicap (Group 1, 1200m, open handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Lankan Rupee: Eight of the last 11 winners paid $6 or less. Seven of the last nine winners have carried 56kg or more. Three of the last four winners came via the G1 Lightning Stakes.

"The Speed Map" says - Driefontein and Lord Of The Sky to lead them up with Delectation and Lankan Rupee in close attendance. The rest will get back and look to swoop late.

Chautauqua was beaten narrowly over this track and distance in the G1 Darley Classic (below) last November when he was just behind a smart one in Terravista. They easily accounted for the likes of Lankan Rupee, Buffering and a host of other top sprinters and Chautauqua meets Terravista a kilo better off here. He resumed with a gutsy win in the G2 Rubiton Stakes - a race Lankan Rupee won last year en route to winning this race. He has had three starts at the Flemington straight six for two wins and the aforementioned second. Hard to knock.

Lankan Rupee is the reigning Horse of the Year and the reigning Newmarket champion. He has had 13 starts since being gelded for nine wins (including five at G1 level), two seconds and two thirds. The problem is he has to carry an extra two kilos this year and no horse has gone back-to-back in this event for more than 30 years and only four have accomplished the feat in the race's 140 year history. Granted heavyweights have dominated this race in the last decade (think Hay List, Black Caviar, Scenic Blast, Weekend Hustler, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target) but he's going to have to equal the weight carrying record if he is to win.

Brazen Beau meets Lankan Rupee 3kg better off for his last start defeat in the G1 Lightning Stakes (below) and he was doing his best work late which suggests the step up to 1200m will be appreciated. His biggest success to date came right here in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last Spring. This race has been kind to three-year-olds with eight successful in the last 17 runnings. If they go mad in front he will be the one storming home. 

Terravista is unbeaten in four first-up appearances and is four from five at 1200m. You could make an argument he should be undefeated at the trip because his only miss was a half length fifth to Lankan Rupee in the G1 Manikato Stakes (below) in October when he saw more dead ends than a driving instructor.

With these four dominating the betting it is no surprise to see it's $15+ about the rest. Driefontein is ultra consistent and the Waterhouse stable is in great form. Delectation has ability as demonstrated last Spring when he ran second to Brazen Beau in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes but he is a bit of a basket case.

WARNING : Image may not resemble actual horse

Locky's Selections

3 Chautauqua
2 Terravista
1 Lankan Rupee
5 Brazen Beau 

Australian Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

*** .There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Happy Trails: 16 of the last 19 winners have paid $9 or less. 22 of the 28 winners since the race went to w-f-a conditions in 1987 have finished in the top three at their previous start. 13 of the last 17 winners came via the G2 Peter Young Stakes.

"The Speed Map" says - The Cleaner will lead. 

I imagine Greatwood will be close up and so too Mourinho. Au Revoir and Entirely Platinum won't be far away either. The rest to drift back and come late in what is sure to be a truly run race. This will be no place for the faint hearted. If you can't run a strong 2000m you're going to be found out by The Cleaner here.

Happy Trails has won three races here at the Flemington and they were all G1's - the Emirates Stakes, the Turnbull Stakes and the Mackinnon Stakes (below). The latter two were over the 2000m. Not bad. He's had his two runs in now so he'll be ready to peak. Third-up last prep he just missed out to Foreteller when 2nd in the G1 Underwood Stakes.

Protectionist won his only start here at Flemington when he demolished them in last year's G1 Melbourne Cup. He will appreciate being back on the bigger track because he didn't seem to handle Caulfield and let's face it the 1800m was always going to be a bit short for him. It may be the same story at 2000m because he strikes me as a 2400m-3200m horse but he's in an Aussie stable now so he could be a bit sharper. Big danger.

Mourinho is flying this time in. He surprised everyone when he won at big odds first-up over 1200m in the G2 Australia Stakes before finishing a gallant third to Dissident in the G1 Orr Stakes. He followed that up with victory in the G2 Peter Young Stakes beating home Happy Trails, Akzar and Spillway who he meets again here and yet you can still get double figure odds. Don't underestimate him.

Foreteller came through the quicksand on the inside part of the track at Warwick Farm last start in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (below) so his effort to be beaten a tick over a length and a half was sound. Third run in two years ago he won the G2 Peter Young Stakes, third-up last Spring he won the G1 Underwood Stakes and he was also having his third run when he was a three-quarter length third in this race last year behind Fiorente. He's also won a G1 Makybe Diva Stakes here but his overall Flemington record is average. A must in all exotics.

Akzar is in the money on the back of his good run behind Mourinho and Happy Trails in the G2 Peter Young Stakes. I don't know that one good run at w-f-a necessarily means he is a genuine chance in a G1 Australian Cup though. His biggest win to date was the Listed Warrnambool Cup last May. It's also the last time he won. His last start third was only the second time he's placed in seven subsequent runs.

Spillway is becoming a bit of a money muncher. His two runs at Flemington have been sound but he could manage only fourth place on both occasions in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes and the G1 Mackinnon Stakes. He's had 11 starts since coming to Australia for just the one win and a second and the win came on the ANZAC Day long weekend last year. He's talented and he could win but he won't be carrying any of my cash.

Of the others Red Cadeaux will probably find this too short but he is a good Flemington horse with three seconds from four starts here - all in G1 Melbourne Cups! Greatwood got me the coin last start at good odds and the stable is flying. The Cleaner will give a great sight for a long way.

Locky's Selections

3 Happy Trails
4 Foreteller
2 Protectionist
6 Mourinho

Rosehill

*** As of 4pm this afternoon the track was rated a Soft 6. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with the slight chance of a shower. ***

Coolmore Classic (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares quality handicap)

Current market

*** There are no early scratchings ***

"The Scriptures" say - Plucky Belle or Mahara: Only two favourites have won in the last 11 years and one of them was a $6 equal favourite. The other nine winners returned between $7.50 and $21. Seven of them carried 53.5kg or less. 11 of the last 13 winners finished top three at their previous start.

"The Speed Map" says - Tarloshan only knows one way to race and that's straight to the front. Thump will be handy. Amicus will probably lob in a good spot from barrier two and I expect Adrift will be a bit closer than last start. Hera probably the only other one who will really press forward.

First Seal is a filly that I respect. I tipped her last Spring when she won the G1 Flight Stakes (below) and I earmarked her as my G1 Doncaster Handicap horse following her brilliant first-up second over the unsuitable 1200m of the G2 Light Fingers Stakes. That opinion was then confirmed by her dominant win in the G2 Surround Stakes last start. 11 fillies have won this race in the last 30 years and nine of them came via that event. The only concern is the wide barrier and the 55.5kg. However Assertive Lass did carry that weight to victory when she won in 1997 and Bounding Away carried 57.5kg in 1987. Still, it hasn't been done in a long time.

Plucky Belle has had two runs back now and she does seem to be a better horse in the Autumn. Third-up in 2012 she won, third run in in 2013 she won too and at the same stage in her prep last year she ran second in the G3 Darley Crown at Hawkesbury. She has had three runs on wet tracks for two wins and a narrow second to Avoid Lightning in the G3 Birthday Card Stakes. The knock is that the last time she won was the same day Fiorente won the G1 Melbourne Cup.

Mahara is having  her third run this preparation and third start last campaign she won the G3 Maybe Mahal Stakes at Flemington during Melbourne Cup week. She also won third-up in her previous preparation. With just 52kg and barrier four she should get a glorious run here and look for her to be storming home at the end because that is her racing pattern. She hasn't run a place in two starts here at Rosehill but that may be misleading because they were both unsuitable races. Definite knockout chance.

Thump has failed to run a place in three starts here at Rosehill and has never won beyond 1400m. In fact she has only been tried past 1200m on four occasions and she has missed the placings three times. She doesn't win often so I'm happy to risk her here.

Adrift was tipped here last start and was caught wide without cover so it may pay to overlook that run. She should get a much better run in transit here from barrier three. It could also been a case of "second-up syndrome" following her easy first-up win. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times - all with three-year-olds. The stable had quite a few winners last weekend and when that happens come carnival time in Sydney they tend to keep winning more races.

Tinto is the only other one I could entertain in multiples. Her last nine runs have produced four wins and three placings including victory in the G1 Queensland Oaks (below). She flashed home from last to grab sixth in the G3 Guy Walter Stakes last start over the unsuitable 1400m trip. Her only other miss in the last 10 months was when she took on older horses as a three-year-old filly in the G3 Tatt's Cup when she had come to the end of her preparation.

It's hard to make a case for anything else. Dear Demi has a stack of weight and has contested this race the last two year's running and been thrashed both times. Diamond Drille was a G1 winner last Autumn in fillies and mares grade over the mile but hasn't won a race since. In fact she hasn't finished better than seventh. Amicus doesn't look the same horse who won the G1 Thousand Guineas last Spring and Arabian Gold looked average fresh and her last two second-up runs were poor.

Locky's Selections

4 First Seal
12 Adrift
9 Mahara
3 Tinto

Other bets

Sabatini (Flemington Race 5 No. 2) has come back from her spell in good order with two wins from as many starts this time in. She made rapid progress last Spring graduating from a win in a Bendigo maiden to a placegetter in the G1 Thousand Guineas inside two months. The Hope stable is in good nick at the moment and they did get me the chocolates last weekend so I'm staying solid. Nicholas Hall has ridden this filly four times for three wins and a third. Opened $3.30.

I'm All The Talk (Rosehill Race 2 No. 3) was terrific in the Oakleigh Plate (below). The first three over the line came from 10th or worse on the turn and given they were only 0.55sec off the course record that's a fair sign the speed in front was hectic. This bloke was the bloke doing all that donkey work in front and yet he managed to hang on for sixth beaten just over a length and a half. Last September he split Terravista and Famous Seamus in the G2 The Shorts. Deep Field will be too short to back so I'm looking for some each-way value. Opened $12.00.

Hampton Court (Rosehill Race 8 No. 1) is one I'm keen to play on an each-way basis if we get eight runners or more. He is the class horse in the race and at set weights he looks well placed. Obviously he has other, bigger targets further down the track but he can come to hand quickly. Second-up last prep he was a one and three quarter length third at this track and distance on a Heavy 8. That day he chased home Sweynesse and First Seal. They would be odds-on here. Opened $7.00. Better will be available on the day me thinks.

Rudy (Rosehill Race 9 No. 3) went up at a silly price but it was quickly snapped up ($9 into $5) when they got 30mm of rain. He's had eight starts on wet tracks for five wins and a second including a win in the G2 Villiers Stakes. Even Stevie Wonder would have seen his run in the G3 Liverpool City Cup when he flashed home from the rear of the field. He hasn't missed the quinella in his last five starts.  Queensland young gun Luke Tarrant comes down for the mount and he's been riding well in Sydney the last fortnight despite limited opportunities on long priced horses. Opened $9.00. Not anymore.

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