Group 1 racing continues in Queensland but action shifts to Eagle Farm for the running of the G1 Queensland Oaks for the three-year-old staying fillies.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
In the last three weeks David Vandyke has trained nine winners and five placegetters from just 19 runners (Win 47.4% / Place 73.7%).
He has just one runner tomorrow - Arabian Gold (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 1).
Eagle Farm
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Good 3. The forecast is for a partly cloudy day with scattered showers. ***
Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Current market
*** There are no early scratchings ***
"The Scriptures" say - Tinto : The top fancies have dominated in recent history with just six double figure winners in the last 31 years. Having said that only four of the last 20 favourites have been successful. Only three winners have jumped from a double figure barrier this century. Six of the last nine winners finished top four in The Roses but did not win.
"The Speed Map" says - Tornado Miss will lead and probably at a decent tempo so expect a true staying test.
Arabian Gold is a deserved favourite after stringing together wins in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes, G3 Frank Packer Plate and G2 Doomben Roses. She's a four time winner at 2000m but she's never scored on a firm track and she had a hiccup earlier in the week when she pulled a shoe at trackwork. She's got to be a query at the 2400m too after failing in last year's G1 VRC Oaks at Flemington during the Spring Carnival so I can't step into $2.50 but the stable is flying.
Tinto on the other hand does look like the 2400m will be more suitable than the 2000m of the G2 The Roses a fortnight ago. She should get a lovely run in transit from the good gate and Timothy Bell is having a good carnival - he's already claimed the G3 BRC Sprint on River Lad and the G3 Lord Mayor's Cup on Angel of Mercy.
Khutulun gets the visitor's draw but she has come a long way in a short time after winning her maiden on debut at Kilmore just 10 weeks ago. She has been working her way through the grades and was competitive against the boys at her last two starts at 2000m. I just don't know what they are going to do from that horrible gate.
Paris Match avoided the traditional lead up in the G2 The Roses which means she's four weeks between runs and jumping from the 1800m to the 2400m. She's only won the once in eight starts and that was a 1200m fillies and mares maiden handicap at Wyong so it's hard to entertain her in a race this strong.
Rock Diva has to overcome a horror draw but there was plenty to like about her effort last start. She was nine weeks between runs and dropping back in distance and despite getting well back she kept finding the line. She's a two time winner over 2100m and an Oaks placegetter in NZ. Jockey Tye Angland only returned from Hong Kong 10 days ago and has already claimed the G2 BRC Sires Produce.
Terai hasn't missed a place in her last six outings and she's won the last two times she struck a dry surface. Like many here she's face a stiff class rise but Darley do know how to place their horses to advantage and have already combined with Kerrin McEvoy to win this race with Purple victorious in 2009.
Sancerre has thrived since arriving in Queensland with two wins from as many starts and both were impressive victories by big margins. She's only had the five career starts and this is clearly a much tougher assignment than she has faced previously but she's rock hard fit and full of confidence.
Raunchy Rocker was less than half a length behind the winner at her last start over 2200m and that was against open company but to be honest it wasn't an overly strong race and she doesn't appear to be going well enough to figure here. This race hasn't been kind to Gai Waterhouse either - she's had 14 runners and has won just the once and that was with Zacheline back in 1998. Tricky gate.
Star Fashion wasn't far away in all three runs in 3-y-o staying contests in Adelaide and she had good form last Spring with a second in the G2 Manifold Stakes and a handy sixth to Kirramosa in the G2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000m when she was just over two lengths off the winner. She's bred to stay too - her dam Elegant Fashion won the Hong Kong Derby in 2003 - the first filly to do so since 1976. Drawn well too.
Hera came to Australia with five wins and four placings from 11 starts including a victory in the G2 Tristam Classic over 2000m. Her first-up run over 1400m was solid then she looked like a threat in The Roses before weakening late, not surprising given she was second-up jumping to 2000m and hadn't raced for three weeks. Is she seasoned enough to win at 2400m?
$26+ the rest.
Locky's Selections
"The Speed Map" says - Tornado Miss will lead and probably at a decent tempo so expect a true staying test.
Arabian Gold is a deserved favourite after stringing together wins in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes, G3 Frank Packer Plate and G2 Doomben Roses. She's a four time winner at 2000m but she's never scored on a firm track and she had a hiccup earlier in the week when she pulled a shoe at trackwork. She's got to be a query at the 2400m too after failing in last year's G1 VRC Oaks at Flemington during the Spring Carnival so I can't step into $2.50 but the stable is flying.
Tinto on the other hand does look like the 2400m will be more suitable than the 2000m of the G2 The Roses a fortnight ago. She should get a lovely run in transit from the good gate and Timothy Bell is having a good carnival - he's already claimed the G3 BRC Sprint on River Lad and the G3 Lord Mayor's Cup on Angel of Mercy.
Khutulun gets the visitor's draw but she has come a long way in a short time after winning her maiden on debut at Kilmore just 10 weeks ago. She has been working her way through the grades and was competitive against the boys at her last two starts at 2000m. I just don't know what they are going to do from that horrible gate.
Paris Match avoided the traditional lead up in the G2 The Roses which means she's four weeks between runs and jumping from the 1800m to the 2400m. She's only won the once in eight starts and that was a 1200m fillies and mares maiden handicap at Wyong so it's hard to entertain her in a race this strong.
Rock Diva has to overcome a horror draw but there was plenty to like about her effort last start. She was nine weeks between runs and dropping back in distance and despite getting well back she kept finding the line. She's a two time winner over 2100m and an Oaks placegetter in NZ. Jockey Tye Angland only returned from Hong Kong 10 days ago and has already claimed the G2 BRC Sires Produce.
Terai hasn't missed a place in her last six outings and she's won the last two times she struck a dry surface. Like many here she's face a stiff class rise but Darley do know how to place their horses to advantage and have already combined with Kerrin McEvoy to win this race with Purple victorious in 2009.
Sancerre has thrived since arriving in Queensland with two wins from as many starts and both were impressive victories by big margins. She's only had the five career starts and this is clearly a much tougher assignment than she has faced previously but she's rock hard fit and full of confidence.
Raunchy Rocker was less than half a length behind the winner at her last start over 2200m and that was against open company but to be honest it wasn't an overly strong race and she doesn't appear to be going well enough to figure here. This race hasn't been kind to Gai Waterhouse either - she's had 14 runners and has won just the once and that was with Zacheline back in 1998. Tricky gate.
Star Fashion wasn't far away in all three runs in 3-y-o staying contests in Adelaide and she had good form last Spring with a second in the G2 Manifold Stakes and a handy sixth to Kirramosa in the G2 Wakeful Stakes over 2000m when she was just over two lengths off the winner. She's bred to stay too - her dam Elegant Fashion won the Hong Kong Derby in 2003 - the first filly to do so since 1976. Drawn well too.
Hera came to Australia with five wins and four placings from 11 starts including a victory in the G2 Tristam Classic over 2000m. Her first-up run over 1400m was solid then she looked like a threat in The Roses before weakening late, not surprising given she was second-up jumping to 2000m and hadn't raced for three weeks. Is she seasoned enough to win at 2400m?
$26+ the rest.
2 Tinto
1 Arabian Gold
8 Rock Diva
8 Sancerre
Akzar (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 2) won't be any flash price but should simply just win. He wasn't suited by the tight turning, leader biased track at Doomben last start but still ran on from last to finish fourth beaten just over two lengths. His previous six length demolition job in the Listed Warnambool Cup had to be seen to be believed and a drying track appeals. Premiership leading Victorian trainer Darren Weir has just one runner in Brisbane tomorrow and jockey Brad Rawiller has just one ride. $2.70.
Sir Moments (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 11) won a 1400m set weights race here at Eagle Farm on this day last year giving two kilos to and beating Gypsy Diamond. That filly has subsequently won the G3 Carbine Club Stakes and finished a narrow second in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes. Don't read too much into his last run on that leader dominated track, instead look to his slashing first-up win at the Gold Coast. $21 looks tempting on an each-way basis.
Belltone (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 2) is a six time winner at this distance and his second-up record is impressive (6:2-2-1). He was doing his best work late first-up and the bigger track at Eagle Farm should suit. Chris Munce has enjoyed great success on this day in the past - he's won the G1 Queensland Oaks four times - so I can happily have a peanut each-way here at the quite frankly ridiculous $26 on offer.
8 Rock Diva
8 Sancerre
Other bets
Akzar (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 2) won't be any flash price but should simply just win. He wasn't suited by the tight turning, leader biased track at Doomben last start but still ran on from last to finish fourth beaten just over two lengths. His previous six length demolition job in the Listed Warnambool Cup had to be seen to be believed and a drying track appeals. Premiership leading Victorian trainer Darren Weir has just one runner in Brisbane tomorrow and jockey Brad Rawiller has just one ride. $2.70.
Sir Moments (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 11) won a 1400m set weights race here at Eagle Farm on this day last year giving two kilos to and beating Gypsy Diamond. That filly has subsequently won the G3 Carbine Club Stakes and finished a narrow second in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes. Don't read too much into his last run on that leader dominated track, instead look to his slashing first-up win at the Gold Coast. $21 looks tempting on an each-way basis.
Belltone (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 2) is a six time winner at this distance and his second-up record is impressive (6:2-2-1). He was doing his best work late first-up and the bigger track at Eagle Farm should suit. Chris Munce has enjoyed great success on this day in the past - he's won the G1 Queensland Oaks four times - so I can happily have a peanut each-way here at the quite frankly ridiculous $26 on offer.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
- NRL Judiciary, Sydney, 28 May 2014
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