Friday, 15 November 2013

Zipping Classic / Sandown Guineas preview

It sounds crazy but we travel to Caulfield this Saturday for the Sandown Guineas meeting.

Yes. You read correctly. The Sandown Guineas will be run at Caulfield as the Sandown circuit is currently in the middle of a $3.2 million upgrade.

So stats go out the window this week.

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?


Gold Coast based trainer John Morrisey is in a rich vein of form at the moment. Since 23 October he has had 22 starters for eight winners and seven placegetters (Win 36.4% / Place 68.2%).

He has three runners tomorrow in Primary Colour (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 7), Evocative (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 13) and Full Hammer (Gold Coast Race 3 No. 8).

Caulfield




*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. The forecast is for isolated light showers early in the morning before a dry afternoon. ***

Zipping Classic (Group 2, 2400m, w-f-a)


***  There are no early scratchings ***

The wet track has me leaning towards Sertorius as he has two wins on affected ground. He's also got a win and a second at this track from his only two attempts and all five runs this prep have been super. Being a stayer he wasn't suited first-up in that mad dash down the Flemington straight they call the Bobbie Lewis yet he came from near last to finish sixth beaten less than two lengths behind the in-form Speediness. Followed that with seconds at Moonee Valley and in the Cranbourne Cup, that time behind the talented Pakal. Broke through for a win in the Bendigo Cup (over this trip) before a narrow defeat to Precedence in last Saturday's Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Precedence does however meet him 2.5kg better off for having beaten him last weekend but he has no wins and just two placings from six starts on slow or worse going. He's also only won once at Caulfield in 20 attempts and in the other 19 attempts he has missed a place 15 times. He is clearly the horse who is best in at the weights though.

Queenstown is another who is in good nick at the moment and has a wet track win to her credit, albeit in a 3-y-o Benchmark 74. Just beaten by the talented Sharnee Rose three starts back before winning at Moonee Valley on Manikato Stakes night then just missed in the Matriarch at Flemington last weekend. Stable is in great touch.

I don't know a lot about the Kiwi runner Ransomed and looking at his form you'd think he'd struggle here. He has been kept safe in early markets but he won't be carrying any of my hard earned.

Midsummer Sun is a former international who made an immediate impact in the Autumn, winning his first two races on Australian soil. He then went to Brisbane for the Winter Carnival but failed to impress, possibly because of the right-handed way of going? He went for a spell and his first two runs back have been great, including a length second to Salon Soldier at Flemington on Cup Day.

Others I could entertain as roughies in exotics are Epingle (wet track form) and Kazanluk (looking for 2400m?).

Locky's Selections

2 Sertorius
8 Queenstown
4 Midsummer Sun
1 Precedence

Sandown Guineas (Group 2, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)


***  There are no early scratchings ***

Only four horses in this field of 11 have ever started on a wet track, and only one of them has ever won on one - Champollion.

Paximadia got a soft lead in the Carbine Club (they ran the first 1000m in a tick under 1.04) before sprinting home and giving nothing else a chance. He meets Equator and Best Case a kilo better off too.

Best Case was the best run in that race for mine. He was still last at the 400m mark well into the Flemington straight but flashed home to finish fourth beaten just over two lengths. Go on his previous start where he beat subsequent Oaks winner Kirramosa.

Outside of the Carbine Club form Apollo's Choice went well at Flemington last Saturday behind Dothraki after being badly held up for a run between the 400m and the 200m and only seeing daylight when it was all over. His last 100m was super.

Locky's Selections

4 Best Case
1 Paximadia
6 Apollo's Choice
2 Champollion

Other bets

Galah (Caulfield Race 5 No. 1) is an in-form horse in a race where there aren't many others who can say the same. His wet track credentials are solid (6:3-1-0) and 58kg isn't that bad on a 56kg minimum. His last two starts have seen him placed behind Boban and Smokin' Joey and they franked the form when they ran the quinella in the Emirates Stakes a week ago. Snowden and McEvoy to continue their great Spring. $3.90.

Platelet (Caulfield Race 8 No. 10) loves the sting out of the ground with five starts on wet tracks for three wins and two seconds. This is her fourth run this prep and fourth-up last time in she won the G1 Goodwood. Was only a length or so off Spirit of Boom and Shamal Wind last start when conceding them weight and both those horses have since run well in big races over the carnival. Well backed early. $3.60.

She's Clean (Caulfield Race 9 No. 3) is just one of the many talented mares Chris Waller has in his stable at the moment (Red Tracer, Catkins, Arinosa). She was enormous last time out when 3rd beaten two lengths at Flemington on Cup Day. She was last of 16 at the half mile and still had just two behind her at the 400m yet managed to get into the placings despite the fact they sprinted their final 600m in 33.42 seconds after strolling through the first half mile in 49.25 seconds. $3.80.

LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


The Stradbroke form - that's what!

Buffering ran 2nd in this race back in June and has since won the G1 Manikato Stakes. Streama ran third and has since won the G1 George Main Stakes. Spirit of Boom ran fourth and has since won the G2 Caulfield Sprint on Caulfield Cup Day. Solzhenitsyn ran fifth and has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Fontelina ran 11th and he won the G2 Linlithgow Stakes at Flemington last Saturday. Even Decision Time who ran second last in the race came out and won the G3 Concorde Stakes first-up.

Stradbroke runners engaged at Flemington tomorrow include Linton (Race 7 No. 5) SCR, Buffering (Race 6 No. 2) 1st $11.00 win / $2.70 place, Solzhenitsyn (Race 7 No. 1) 13th , Epaulette (Race 6 No. 3) 13th and Fontelina (Race 6 No. 8) 4th.

Flemington


Emirates Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

The winner and the runner-up are arguably the two most improved horses in the land. Both showed early promise but both were headcases but they finally seem to have twigged to what this game is all about. Speediness got all the favours and still couldn't get over the line. Probably a G2 horse at best? Mull of Killough, Toydini and Sacred Falls all went OK.

A post race examination of Solzhenitsyn revealed a throat abnormality. Trainer Robert Heathcote has advised that the gelding will go for a wind operation and then be spelled.

Locky's Selections

5 Linton (SCR)
2 Boban (1st) $4.60 win / $2.20 place
4 Toydini (6th)
3 Sacred Falls (5th)


VRC Sprint Classic (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Last week I wrote:

"Buffering also comes out of the Straddie and picks himself through sheer tenacity and consistency. He finally broke through for his Maiden Group 1 last start and who is to say he can't win a second in as many starts just as Hot Danish did a few years back?"

So why didn't I tip him on top? Because I'm an idiot. That's why.

Epaulette has been retired to stud. Shamexpress may have won if not held up for 200m. Unpretentious pulled up lame in the off foreleg.

Locky's Selections

3 Epaulette (13th)
2 Buffering (1st) $11.00 win / $2.70 place
1 Lucky Nine (6th)
11 Unpretentious (9th)


Other bets

Lockroy (Flemington Race 1 No. 5) is a regally bred two-year-old colt stepping out for the first time. His father More Than Ready sired Golden Slipper winners Sebring and Phelan Ready as well as the mighty mare More Joyous. His dam Polar Success won the Slipper in 2003. The stable can produce one fresh. $3.70. 2nd. $2.10 place. Solid debut.

La Amistad (Flemington Race 8 No. 14) is a lightly raced half-sister to Makybe Diva. She's had just the five career starts for two wins and two placings and has gotten better with each start. This is a massive step up in grade but her latest win was super impressive and if she continues her upward spiral I can easily have a bob each-way at the $8 on offer. Backed in from $17. 8th. May need more time to mature.



QUOTE OF THE DAY


What can I do for you four chaps then?
-  Thomas Becket, Canterbury Cathedral, 29 December 1170

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

No comments: