A couple of winners on Saturday but also a couple of favourites that lost so a bit of a mixed bag.
But this is the one that counts.
But this is the one that counts.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
John O'Shea has been operating at almost 25% in the last three weeks with 11 winners from 45 runners. In the same period Chris Waller has had 12 from 88.
O'Shea has two runners at Flemington tomorrow and both are in Race 5 - Diamond Oasis (No. 7) and Bernabeau (No. 9).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Seville is the horse in this race that profiles very similarly to Green Moon last year. He's having his second Spring Carnival since being imported, he was a Group 1 placegetter the previous year, he's a lightly weighted weight-for-age type and he's drawn well. Both came off final hit-outs in the Cox Plate and Seville arguably went better this year than Green Moon did last year.
Verema is a lightly raced mare who only started racing 18 months ago. Her trainer won The Cup three years ago with Americain and her jockey won two years ago on Dunaden. Was Group 3 placed over this distance at the Dubai World Cup meeting back in March and has won her last two starts including one at 3000m. Great barrier and no weight.
Fiorente has not run a bad race since coming to Australia and given that he ran second in this race last year he's not really that badly treated with just 55kg. Barrier five is a big plus because it means Damien Oliver can position him closer to the lead than in previous runs. Gai Waterhouse horses have placed in this race three times. He's had the ideal weight-for-age preparation.
Hawkspur is the only one in my Top Four that hasn't drawn well but I can't leave him out. Jim Cassidy showed on Saturday why he is regarded as one of the best jockeys in the land so hopefully his ability can offset the bad barrier. Another who has had an uninterrupted prep with one goal in mind.
As I've said so often in the past the problem with picking a Top Four is you're only allowed to have four. It means I've had to leave some good ones out.
Sea Moon has improved with every run in this country but he is a fighter. The weight bothers me though. Only Makybe Diva has carried more in the last 20 years.
Brown Panther is well drawn and has two mile form but I would have preferred to have seen him run in this country at least once.
Dandino probably should have won the Caulfield Cup and he's weighted and drawn to win but I think he is more of a 2400m horse.
Fawkner is another who I query over 3200m but his Caulfield Cup win was dominant and the stable is flying.
Mount Athos has a horrible barrier to contend with and will have to go back to the second half of the field and will just need too much luck.
Dear Demi ran out of her skin in both the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes and she does perform well here at Flemington but the wide barrier and the 3200m are a concern.
Verema is a lightly raced mare who only started racing 18 months ago. Her trainer won The Cup three years ago with Americain and her jockey won two years ago on Dunaden. Was Group 3 placed over this distance at the Dubai World Cup meeting back in March and has won her last two starts including one at 3000m. Great barrier and no weight.
Fiorente has not run a bad race since coming to Australia and given that he ran second in this race last year he's not really that badly treated with just 55kg. Barrier five is a big plus because it means Damien Oliver can position him closer to the lead than in previous runs. Gai Waterhouse horses have placed in this race three times. He's had the ideal weight-for-age preparation.
Hawkspur is the only one in my Top Four that hasn't drawn well but I can't leave him out. Jim Cassidy showed on Saturday why he is regarded as one of the best jockeys in the land so hopefully his ability can offset the bad barrier. Another who has had an uninterrupted prep with one goal in mind.
As I've said so often in the past the problem with picking a Top Four is you're only allowed to have four. It means I've had to leave some good ones out.
Sea Moon has improved with every run in this country but he is a fighter. The weight bothers me though. Only Makybe Diva has carried more in the last 20 years.
Brown Panther is well drawn and has two mile form but I would have preferred to have seen him run in this country at least once.
Dandino probably should have won the Caulfield Cup and he's weighted and drawn to win but I think he is more of a 2400m horse.
Fawkner is another who I query over 3200m but his Caulfield Cup win was dominant and the stable is flying.
Mount Athos has a horrible barrier to contend with and will have to go back to the second half of the field and will just need too much luck.
Dear Demi ran out of her skin in both the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes and she does perform well here at Flemington but the wide barrier and the 3200m are a concern.
Locky's Selections
12 Seville
21 Verema
6 Fiorente
18 Hawkspur
21 Verema
6 Fiorente
18 Hawkspur
Other bets
Salon Soldier (Flemington Race 8 No. 5) showed promise at his first Australian start and comes from a form satble and will be ridden by a jockey in great touch at the moment. He's been well found in early markets though. $2.50.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Kris Lees certainly isn't afraid to travel his horses - he's trained 10 winners since October 10 and they've come at Gosford, Doomben, Randwick (a double), Warwick Farm (twice), Newcastle, Wyong and Scone.
He has only two runners tomorrow and he's elected to travel one from his Broadmeadow base all the way to Flemington - the in-form mare Sharnee Rose (Race 7 No. 4). $11 is available. 4th. Good run behind three quality mares in a solid Group 1.
He has only two runners tomorrow and he's elected to travel one from his Broadmeadow base all the way to Flemington - the in-form mare Sharnee Rose (Race 7 No. 4). $11 is available. 4th. Good run behind three quality mares in a solid Group 1.
Flemington
VRC Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)
Polanski simply outstayed them. Tupac Amaru should have finished closer after getting flattened mid-race. Complacent was brave but 2000m may be more his go.
Locky's Selections
2 Complacent (2nd) $2.70 place
6 San Diego (12th)
3 Savvy Nature (14th)
16 Bring Something (7th)
6 San Diego (12th)
3 Savvy Nature (14th)
16 Bring Something (7th)
Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Jamie Spencer take a bow. You pulled their pants down on Side Glance with a bold mid-race move. Dear Demi produced a super Cup trial.
Locky's Selections
4 Solzhenitsyn (9th)
6 Jet Away (6th)
5 Moriarty (3rd)
6 Jet Away (6th)
5 Moriarty (3rd)
Myer Classic (Group 1, 1600m, fillies and mares w-f-a)
Red Tracer is a very good mare. Catkins is on the way up. Fire Up Fifi gets Black Type in the stud book.
Locky's Selections
1 Red Tracer (1st) $3.10 / $1.60 place
2 Fire Up Fifi (3rd) $2.20 place
4 Sharnee Rose (4th)
5 Xanadu (12th)
2 Fire Up Fifi (3rd) $2.20 place
4 Sharnee Rose (4th)
5 Xanadu (12th)
Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)
How good is Zoustar?
Locky's Selections
1 Zoustar (1st) $2.10 win / $1.50 place
9 Missy Longstocking (9th)
11 Thump (7th)
5 Lion Of Belfort (3rd) $3.20 place
9 Missy Longstocking (9th)
11 Thump (7th)
5 Lion Of Belfort (3rd) $3.20 place
Other bets
Hucklebuck (Flemington Race 1 No. 2) is one I've been following for a while as regular readers would know. Won with a leg in the air last time out and meets a similar field here. He'll be short because he's been crunched in early markets but he should just win and get us off to a great start this week. $2.25. 2nd. $1.20 place. Bad ride. Got too far back in a trot and canter affair.
May's Dream (Flemington Race 2 No. 3) is a daughter of Geelong and Melbourne Cup placegetter She's Archie so she is bred to run a trip. She was the only filly to seriously challenge Guelph in the Thousand Guineas and they cleared out from the rest. Another who will be skinny odds but looks to have these covered. Hopefully the first two races can pay for my week on the punt. $2.30. 2nd. $1.30 place. Had every possible chance.
May's Dream (Flemington Race 2 No. 3) is a daughter of Geelong and Melbourne Cup placegetter She's Archie so she is bred to run a trip. She was the only filly to seriously challenge Guelph in the Thousand Guineas and they cleared out from the rest. Another who will be skinny odds but looks to have these covered. Hopefully the first two races can pay for my week on the punt. $2.30. 2nd. $1.30 place. Had every possible chance.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Nurse!
- Derek & Clive, 1977
- Derek & Clive, 1977
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