One more day of the Flemington Carnival to go and whilst it is a moment I greet with a heavy heart it is also a moment for which my liver and my bank manager will be eternally grateful.
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LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
The Stradbroke form - that's what!
Buffering ran 2nd in this race back in June and has since won the G1 Manikato Stakes. Streama ran third and has since won the G1 George Main Stakes. Spirit of Boom ran fourth and has since won the G2 Caulfield Sprint on Caulfield Cup Day. Solzhenitsyn ran fifth and has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Fontelina ran 11th and he won the G2 Linlithgow Stakes at Flemington last Saturday. Even Decision Time who ran second last in the race came out and won the G3 Concorde Stakes first-up.
Stradbroke runners engaged at Flemington tomorrow include Linton (Race 7 No. 5), Buffering (Race 6 No. 2), Solzhenitsyn (Race 7 No. 1), Epaulette (Race 6 No. 3) and Fontelina (Race 6 No. 8).
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with areas of rain easing to isolated showers in the late afternoon.
*** Havana Gold and Mouro are early scratchings ***
10 of the last 13 winners of this race have paid double figure odds and the average winning price in that period has been about $25. Having said that eight favourites placed (three of whom won) in the same period.
As I've said above and as my recent results would indicate I have been following this Stradbroke formline and I think Linton is massive overs here. He went super first-up when fifth in that hot Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) behind Rebel Dane, Fontelina, Solzhenitsyn and Speediness. Forgive the Toorak run when he felt the firm track. The distinct possibility of the sting out of the ground tomorrow appeals.
Boban must go in because he just keeps on winning. The most improved horse in the land in my humble opinion but he has to give weight to seasoned older horses now. He has gone from the hunter to the hunted and won't get in under the radar anymore. Crunched in early markets.
Toydini went enormous at the Valley when he was forced to go early in the Waterford Crystal Mile and sustain a long, sweeping run around the bend and still managed to get the prize. Not well placed under the handicap conditions however and I also wonder how many times they can go to the well because he's been in work a long time.
Sacred Falls possibly could have beaten Toydini last start if he had found clear running room earlier but he did get a soft run where the other had to do a ton of work. He's drawn to get a better run here too.
There are a few others I could entertain as roughies if you're looking for something to add some value to your exotics.
Solzhenitsyn went too badly to be true last start but he is a top class animal and could turn it around. Speediness is flying and meets Toydini and Sacred Falls two kilos better off and should get the gun run again. Spurtonic has no weight and looks a horse on the up plus the stable is flying high. Blackie is in career best form. Smokin' Joey's win last Saturday was devastating.
As I've said above and as my recent results would indicate I have been following this Stradbroke formline and I think Linton is massive overs here. He went super first-up when fifth in that hot Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) behind Rebel Dane, Fontelina, Solzhenitsyn and Speediness. Forgive the Toorak run when he felt the firm track. The distinct possibility of the sting out of the ground tomorrow appeals.
Boban must go in because he just keeps on winning. The most improved horse in the land in my humble opinion but he has to give weight to seasoned older horses now. He has gone from the hunter to the hunted and won't get in under the radar anymore. Crunched in early markets.
Toydini went enormous at the Valley when he was forced to go early in the Waterford Crystal Mile and sustain a long, sweeping run around the bend and still managed to get the prize. Not well placed under the handicap conditions however and I also wonder how many times they can go to the well because he's been in work a long time.
Sacred Falls possibly could have beaten Toydini last start if he had found clear running room earlier but he did get a soft run where the other had to do a ton of work. He's drawn to get a better run here too.
There are a few others I could entertain as roughies if you're looking for something to add some value to your exotics.
Solzhenitsyn went too badly to be true last start but he is a top class animal and could turn it around. Speediness is flying and meets Toydini and Sacred Falls two kilos better off and should get the gun run again. Spurtonic has no weight and looks a horse on the up plus the stable is flying high. Blackie is in career best form. Smokin' Joey's win last Saturday was devastating.
Locky's Selections
5 Linton
2 Boban
4 Toydini
3 Sacred Falls
*** There are no early scratchings ***
2 Boban
4 Toydini
3 Sacred Falls
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Again I'm sticking with the Stradbroke formline.
Epaulette just did not handle Moonee Valley and I think he will be a better horse on a bigger track. He's won two out of three second-up including a G1 Golden Rose. The engagement of Kerrin McEvoy to ride this of all the three Darley runners is significant.
Buffering also comes out of the Straddie and picks himself through sheer tenacity and consistency. He finally broke through for his Maiden Group 1 last start and who is to say he can't win a second in as many starts just as Hot Danish did a few years back?
I risked Lucky Nine at Moonee Valley and it nearly cost me. I will not make that mistake again. He has obviously thrived in his new environment and he is a quality animal. A badly wet track would be a concern though.
Unpretentious is untapped and could be the blowout here. Looks to be a nice horse in the making but this is his biggest test to date. You have to throw them in at the deep end sooner or later though and he's earned his crack at this. Won during the Carnival here last year.
I've had to leave out some good horses but as I always say you can't have them all. Bel Sprinter could blow them away. Rebel Dane is quality. Sessions is in great nick. Platelet is a dual Group 1 winner. Tough race. Not a lot between them.
Epaulette just did not handle Moonee Valley and I think he will be a better horse on a bigger track. He's won two out of three second-up including a G1 Golden Rose. The engagement of Kerrin McEvoy to ride this of all the three Darley runners is significant.
Buffering also comes out of the Straddie and picks himself through sheer tenacity and consistency. He finally broke through for his Maiden Group 1 last start and who is to say he can't win a second in as many starts just as Hot Danish did a few years back?
I risked Lucky Nine at Moonee Valley and it nearly cost me. I will not make that mistake again. He has obviously thrived in his new environment and he is a quality animal. A badly wet track would be a concern though.
Unpretentious is untapped and could be the blowout here. Looks to be a nice horse in the making but this is his biggest test to date. You have to throw them in at the deep end sooner or later though and he's earned his crack at this. Won during the Carnival here last year.
I've had to leave out some good horses but as I always say you can't have them all. Bel Sprinter could blow them away. Rebel Dane is quality. Sessions is in great nick. Platelet is a dual Group 1 winner. Tough race. Not a lot between them.
Locky's Selections
3 Epaulette
2 Buffering
1 Lucky Nine
11 Unpretentious
2 Buffering
1 Lucky Nine
11 Unpretentious
Other bets
Lockroy (Flemington Race 1 No. 5) is a regally bred two-year-old colt stepping out for the first time. His father More Than Ready sired Golden Slipper winners Sebring and Phelan Ready as well as the mighty mare More Joyous. His dam Polar Success won the Slipper in 2003. The stable can produce one fresh. $3.70.
La Amistad (Flemington Race 8 No. 14) is a lightly raced half-sister to Makybe Diva. She's had just the five career starts for two wins and two placings and has gotten better with each start. This is a massive step up in grade but her latest win was super impressive and if she continues her upward spiral I can easily have a bob each-way at the $8 on offer. Backed in from $17.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Darren Weir has trained a staggering 16 winners in the last three weeks - that's more than Peter Snowden and Gai Waterhouse. Nicholas Hall has had just seven rides for Weir this season but they have resulted in three wins and two seconds.
Tomorrow they link up on May's Dream (Flemington Race 6 No. 1) and it would be fitting if he tasted some Group 1 success after stable star Puissance de Lune had his Spring campaign prematurely cut short. 8th. Disappointing.
Tomorrow they link up on May's Dream (Flemington Race 6 No. 1) and it would be fitting if he tasted some Group 1 success after stable star Puissance de Lune had his Spring campaign prematurely cut short. 8th. Disappointing.
Flemington
VRC Oaks (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)
I've got to start reading what I'm writing before naming my Top 4!
"Kirramosa will start favourite on the back of her dominant win in last Saturday's Wakeful Stakes. She came from a clear last and rounded them up in the space of a couple of strides to win by over a length and she was pulling away from them on the line. The effort is all the more remarkable in hindsight when you consider that most of the horses that won on the circle (as opposed to down the straight) had been on the speed. Paximadia (Race 1) led all the way. Ruscello (Race 2) led all the way. Side Glance (Race 5) went to the front around the 700m mark and wasn't headed. Polanski (Race 6) sat handy then pounced upon straightening. Red Tracer and Catkins (Race 7) sat 1-2 and ran the quinella. It just wasn't a swoopers day. Except for this girl that is."
Locky's Selections
4 Gypsy Diamond (4th)
3 Kirramosa (1st) $2.70 win / $1.30 place
1 May's Dream (8th)
6 Quayside (7th)
3 Kirramosa (1st) $2.70 win / $1.30 place
1 May's Dream (8th)
6 Quayside (7th)
Other bets
Forarainyday (Flemington Race 4 No. 18) needs another scratching to get into the field because he is second emergency but if he does I'll be having a tickle each-way at the $12. Has only two career wins but both came at the 1100m. In fact he's never been worse than second at this distance in three starts. He also goes well fresh with a win and two placings from his three first-up attempts. As previously mentioned the stable goes well here at this time of year. Did not get into the field.
Snitzerland (Flemington Race 8 No. 3) is also from a stable that has a habit of bobbing up here during the carnival. If she is at her best she accounts for this lot easily so I am happy to take $4. 2nd. $1.80 place. Fought hard but the 2.5kg weight swing to the winner told. They easily accounted for the rest.
Snitzerland (Flemington Race 8 No. 3) is also from a stable that has a habit of bobbing up here during the carnival. If she is at her best she accounts for this lot easily so I am happy to take $4. 2nd. $1.80 place. Fought hard but the 2.5kg weight swing to the winner told. They easily accounted for the rest.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Has anyone seen my cushion?
- Nash Rawiller, Flemington, 5 November 2013
- Nash Rawiller, Flemington, 5 November 2013
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