Railway Stakes / Winterbottom Stakes preview

All eyes are on WA this weekend with just three Group 1 races remaining this calendar year.

Two of them being run tomorrow at Ascot - the Railway and Winterbottom Stakes. The final G1 (the Kingston Town Classic) will follow at the same track in a fortnight.

As always the Best of the West will take on a strong contingent from the eastern seaboard.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Since the start of this month Ascot based trainer Simon Miller has had just 18 runners but has produced six winners at a strike rate of one in three.

He has entrants in all three feature races tomorrow - Platinum Rocker in the Railway Stakes (Race 8 No. 13), Power Princess in the Winterbottom Stakes (Race 7 No. 13) plus two runners in the WA Guineas in Saint Bro (Race 6 No. 6) and Miss Rose De Lago (Race 6 No. 14).

Ascot

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***

Railway Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Since the great Northerly won this race back in 2000 just three of the twelve winners have drawn double figure barriers so inside gates are a distinct advantage. Nine of the 12 winners in that same period carried 54.5kg or less and 10 of those 12 were trained locally with the only interstate winners being Sniper's Bullet (2009) and Gathering (2010). Three of the last four winners were double figure odds and the average winning price since the turn of the century is $9 with just two favourites saluting the judge.

Only four horses are under double figure odds here and all are interstate visitors. That's no surprise with many of the local hopes drawing horrible barriers - Mr Moet (20), Platinum Rocker (19), Luckygray (17), Rohan (16) and Playing God (13).

The best of the raiders looks to be Smokin' Joey. He's always shown he has ability but he's been a bit of a headcase. The move to Wez Hunter's yard and a certain operation appear to have done the trick. The stable is flying and his run in the Emirates was enormous because he was wide without cover for most of the race but still had the cheek to chime in at the end.

Fire Up Fifi has been contesting top quality races and it would take a braver man than myself to tip against Rob Heathcote and Damian Browne at the moment. Well weighted at 54kg on a 53kg minimum but she's taking on the boys now after contesting fillies and mares races and she has the visitor's draw to deal with too.

Conservatorium obviously handled the trip over well because he claimed the G2 Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) at this track a fortnight ago. He was only a quarter of a length behind Fire Up Fifi in the Listed Centenary Classic at Eagle Farm during the Winter and meets her 2.5kg better off tomorrow.

Kerrific looks the best of the locals. Has three wins and two placings from six attempts at the mile and he is a winner with 13 victories from 39 starts. Has won six times here at Ascot. Will come into barrier nine if the emergencies come out and should be able to race in a handy position.

Mr Moet the best roughie. He has drawn the extreme outside but last start he was beaten less than a length and a half in the Mackinnon. Prior to that he has sixth beaten two and a quarter lengths in the Caulfield Cup.

Locky's Selections

4 Smokin' Joey
9 Fire Up Fifi
3 Conservatorium
7 Kerrific

Winterbottom Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

This race has been much kinder to the visiting trainers with Paul Messara, Tony Noonan, Joe Janiak, David Hayes and Lee Freedman all successful in the last decade. The favourites have fared better too with seven of the last nine winners paying $3.75 or less. Inside barriers are again crucial with only two winners since 2000 jumping from outside barrier nine.

Buffering really does pick himself here following successive Group 1 victories in the Manikato Stakes and VRC Sprint. As alluded to previously Heathcote and Browne have been in great touch these last few months and I really don't see barrier eight as a problem because they've got a 600m run before they have to negotiate the first and only turn.

Barakey cannot be dismissed because he has only been beaten once in 13 starts and that defeat came when he was injured in the Newmarket back in March. Showed with a first-up win that he has overcome that injury and is drawn to get the gun run tomorrow at a track where he has won six times including three over this trip.

The four runs produced by Spirit of Boom in Group 2 races this campaign have all been full of merit. Followed a close-up third behind Sessions and Aeronautical in The Shorts with a narrow second to Platelet in the Gilgai. Next start he claimed the Caulfield Sprint before flashing home from near last early to just miss behind Fontelina (final 600m 33.28) in the Linlithgow on Derby Day.

Power Princess is the track specialist with three wins and two seconds from six goes here at the Ascot 1200m. A winner of 12 races from just 28 starts including eight at this trip. Barakey is the only horse to have beaten her in the last 18 months. Stable is red hot at the moment.

Locky's Selections

1 Buffering
4 Barakey
2 Spirit of Boom
13 Power Princess

Other bets

NIL

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Gold Coast based trainer John Morrisey is in a rich vein of form at the moment. Since 23 October he has had 22 starters for eight winners and seven placegetters (Win 36.4% / Place 68.2%).

He has three runners tomorrow in Primary Colour (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 7), Evocative (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 13) and Full Hammer (Gold Coast Race 3 No. 8). All unplaced.

Caulfield

Zipping Classic (Group 2, 2400m, w-f-a)

Last week I wrote:

"The wet track has me leaning towards Sertorius as he has two wins on affected ground. He's also got a win and a second at this track from his only two attempts and all five runs this prep have been super. Being a stayer he wasn't suited first-up in that mad dash down the Flemington straight they call the Bobbie Lewis yet he came from near last to finish sixth beaten less than two lengths behind the in-form Speediness. Followed that with seconds at Moonee Valley and in the Cranbourne Cup, that time behind the talented Pakal. Broke through for a win in the Bendigo Cup (over this trip) before a narrow defeat to Precedence in last Saturday's Queen Elizabeth Stakes."

Locky's Selections

2 Sertorius (1st) $3.70 win / $1.50 place
8 Queenstown (3rd) $1.90 place
4 Midsummer Sun (4th)
1 Precedence (6th)

Any 2 2-8 $3.50

Sandown Guineas (Group 2, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Last week I wrote:

"Paximadia got a soft lead in the Carbine Club (they ran the first 1000m in a tick under 1.04) before sprinting home and giving nothing else a chance. He meets Equator and Best Case a kilo better off too."

Locky's Selections

4 Best Case (4th)
1 Paximadia (1st) $3.40 win / $1.60 place
6 Apollo's Choice (3rd) $1.50 place
2 Champollion (6th)

Any 2 1-6 $3.00

Other bets

Galah (Caulfield Race 5 No. 1) is an in-form horse in a race where there aren't many others who can say the same. His wet track credentials are solid (6:3-1-0) and 58kg isn't that bad on a 56kg minimum. His last two starts have seen him placed behind Boban and Smokin' Joey and they franked the form when they ran the quinella in the Emirates Stakes a week ago. Snowden and McEvoy to continue their great Spring. $3.90. 3rd. $1.50 place. Just OK.

Platelet (Caulfield Race 8 No. 10) loves the sting out of the ground with five starts on wet tracks for three wins and two seconds. This is her fourth run this prep and fourth-up last time in she won the G1 Goodwood. Was only a length or so off Spirit of Boom and Shamal Wind last start when conceding them weight and both those horses have since run well in big races over the carnival. Well backed early. $3.60. 11th. Rider suggested post-race that the mare didn't travel from the 700m mark onwards but an examination revealed no abnormalities.

She's Clean (Caulfield Race 9 No. 3) is just one of the many talented mares Chris Waller has in his stable at the moment (Red Tracer, Catkins, Arinosa). She was enormous last time out when 3rd beaten two lengths at Flemington on Cup Day. She was last of 16 at the half mile and still had just two behind her at the 400m yet managed to get into the placings despite the fact they sprinted their final 600m in 33.42 seconds after strolling through the first half mile in 49.25 seconds. $3.80. SCR.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

Well don't look at me.
-  Witch Doctor, Village next door to Krakatoa, 27 August 1883

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Zipping Classic / Sandown Guineas preview

It sounds crazy but we travel to Caulfield this Saturday for the Sandown Guineas meeting.

Yes. You read correctly. The Sandown Guineas will be run at Caulfield as the Sandown circuit is currently in the middle of a $3.2 million upgrade.

So stats go out the window this week.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Gold Coast based trainer John Morrisey is in a rich vein of form at the moment. Since 23 October he has had 22 starters for eight winners and seven placegetters (Win 36.4% / Place 68.2%).

He has three runners tomorrow in Primary Colour (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 7), Evocative (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 13) and Full Hammer (Gold Coast Race 3 No. 8).

Caulfield

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. The forecast is for isolated light showers early in the morning before a dry afternoon. ***

Zipping Classic (Group 2, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

The wet track has me leaning towards Sertorius as he has two wins on affected ground. He's also got a win and a second at this track from his only two attempts and all five runs this prep have been super. Being a stayer he wasn't suited first-up in that mad dash down the Flemington straight they call the Bobbie Lewis yet he came from near last to finish sixth beaten less than two lengths behind the in-form Speediness. Followed that with seconds at Moonee Valley and in the Cranbourne Cup, that time behind the talented Pakal. Broke through for a win in the Bendigo Cup (over this trip) before a narrow defeat to Precedence in last Saturday's Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Precedence does however meet him 2.5kg better off for having beaten him last weekend but he has no wins and just two placings from six starts on slow or worse going. He's also only won once at Caulfield in 20 attempts and in the other 19 attempts he has missed a place 15 times. He is clearly the horse who is best in at the weights though.

Queenstown is another who is in good nick at the moment and has a wet track win to her credit, albeit in a 3-y-o Benchmark 74. Just beaten by the talented Sharnee Rose three starts back before winning at Moonee Valley on Manikato Stakes night then just missed in the Matriarch at Flemington last weekend. Stable is in great touch.

I don't know a lot about the Kiwi runner Ransomed and looking at his form you'd think he'd struggle here. He has been kept safe in early markets but he won't be carrying any of my hard earned.

Midsummer Sun is a former international who made an immediate impact in the Autumn, winning his first two races on Australian soil. He then went to Brisbane for the Winter Carnival but failed to impress, possibly because of the right-handed way of going? He went for a spell and his first two runs back have been great, including a length second to Salon Soldier at Flemington on Cup Day.

Others I could entertain as roughies in exotics are Epingle (wet track form) and Kazanluk (looking for 2400m?).

Locky's Selections

2 Sertorius
8 Queenstown
4 Midsummer Sun
1 Precedence

Sandown Guineas (Group 2, 1600m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Only four horses in this field of 11 have ever started on a wet track, and only one of them has ever won on one - Champollion.

Paximadia got a soft lead in the Carbine Club (they ran the first 1000m in a tick under 1.04) before sprinting home and giving nothing else a chance. He meets Equator and Best Case a kilo better off too.

Best Case was the best run in that race for mine. He was still last at the 400m mark well into the Flemington straight but flashed home to finish fourth beaten just over two lengths. Go on his previous start where he beat subsequent Oaks winner Kirramosa.

Outside of the Carbine Club form Apollo's Choice went well at Flemington last Saturday behind Dothraki after being badly held up for a run between the 400m and the 200m and only seeing daylight when it was all over. His last 100m was super.

Locky's Selections

4 Best Case
1 Paximadia
6 Apollo's Choice
2 Champollion

Other bets

Galah (Caulfield Race 5 No. 1) is an in-form horse in a race where there aren't many others who can say the same. His wet track credentials are solid (6:3-1-0) and 58kg isn't that bad on a 56kg minimum. His last two starts have seen him placed behind Boban and Smokin' Joey and they franked the form when they ran the quinella in the Emirates Stakes a week ago. Snowden and McEvoy to continue their great Spring. $3.90.

Platelet (Caulfield Race 8 No. 10) loves the sting out of the ground with five starts on wet tracks for three wins and two seconds. This is her fourth run this prep and fourth-up last time in she won the G1 Goodwood. Was only a length or so off Spirit of Boom and Shamal Wind last start when conceding them weight and both those horses have since run well in big races over the carnival. Well backed early. $3.60.

She's Clean (Caulfield Race 9 No. 3) is just one of the many talented mares Chris Waller has in his stable at the moment (Red Tracer, Catkins, Arinosa). She was enormous last time out when 3rd beaten two lengths at Flemington on Cup Day. She was last of 16 at the half mile and still had just two behind her at the 400m yet managed to get into the placings despite the fact they sprinted their final 600m in 33.42 seconds after strolling through the first half mile in 49.25 seconds. $3.80.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

The Stradbroke form - that's what!

Buffering ran 2nd in this race back in June and has since won the G1 Manikato Stakes. Streama ran third and has since won the G1 George Main Stakes. Spirit of Boom ran fourth and has since won the G2 Caulfield Sprint on Caulfield Cup Day. Solzhenitsyn ran fifth and has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Fontelina ran 11th and he won the G2 Linlithgow Stakes at Flemington last Saturday. Even Decision Time who ran second last in the race came out and won the G3 Concorde Stakes first-up.

Stradbroke runners engaged at Flemington tomorrow include Linton (Race 7 No. 5) SCR, Buffering (Race 6 No. 2) 1st $11.00 win / $2.70 place, Solzhenitsyn (Race 7 No. 1) 13th , Epaulette (Race 6 No. 3) 13th and Fontelina (Race 6 No. 8) 4th.

Flemington

Emirates Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

The winner and the runner-up are arguably the two most improved horses in the land. Both showed early promise but both were headcases but they finally seem to have twigged to what this game is all about. Speediness got all the favours and still couldn't get over the line. Probably a G2 horse at best? Mull of Killough, Toydini and Sacred Falls all went OK.

A post race examination of Solzhenitsyn revealed a throat abnormality. Trainer Robert Heathcote has advised that the gelding will go for a wind operation and then be spelled.

Locky's Selections

5 Linton (SCR)
2 Boban (1st) $4.60 win / $2.20 place
4 Toydini (6th)
3 Sacred Falls (5th)

VRC Sprint Classic (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Last week I wrote:

"Buffering also comes out of the Straddie and picks himself through sheer tenacity and consistency. He finally broke through for his Maiden Group 1 last start and who is to say he can't win a second in as many starts just as Hot Danish did a few years back?"

So why didn't I tip him on top? Because I'm an idiot. That's why.

Epaulette has been retired to stud. Shamexpress may have won if not held up for 200m. Unpretentious pulled up lame in the off foreleg.

Locky's Selections

3 Epaulette (13th)
2 Buffering (1st) $11.00 win / $2.70 place
1 Lucky Nine (6th)
11 Unpretentious (9th)

Other bets

Lockroy (Flemington Race 1 No. 5) is a regally bred two-year-old colt stepping out for the first time. His father More Than Ready sired Golden Slipper winners Sebring and Phelan Ready as well as the mighty mare More Joyous. His dam Polar Success won the Slipper in 2003. The stable can produce one fresh. $3.70. 2nd. $2.10 place. Solid debut.

La Amistad (Flemington Race 8 No. 14) is a lightly raced half-sister to Makybe Diva. She's had just the five career starts for two wins and two placings and has gotten better with each start. This is a massive step up in grade but her latest win was super impressive and if she continues her upward spiral I can easily have a bob each-way at the $8 on offer. Backed in from $17. 8th. May need more time to mature.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

What can I do for you four chaps then?
-  Thomas Becket, Canterbury Cathedral, 29 December 1170

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Emirates Stakes / VRC Sprint preview

One more day of the Flemington Carnival to go and whilst it is a moment I greet with a heavy heart it is also a moment for which my liver and my bank manager will be eternally grateful.

How did you do? Were my tips helpful? Let me hear your feedback either positive or negative by leaving a comment.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

The Stradbroke form - that's what!

Buffering ran 2nd in this race back in June and has since won the G1 Manikato Stakes. Streama ran third and has since won the G1 George Main Stakes. Spirit of Boom ran fourth and has since won the G2 Caulfield Sprint on Caulfield Cup Day. Solzhenitsyn ran fifth and has since won the G1 Toorak Handicap. Fontelina ran 11th and he won the G2 Linlithgow Stakes at Flemington last Saturday. Even Decision Time who ran second last in the race came out and won the G3 Concorde Stakes first-up.

Stradbroke runners engaged at Flemington tomorrow include Linton (Race 7 No. 5), Buffering (Race 6 No. 2), Solzhenitsyn (Race 7 No. 1), Epaulette (Race 6 No. 3) and Fontelina (Race 6 No. 8).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a cloudy day with areas of rain easing to isolated showers in the late afternoon.

Emirates Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, quality handicap)

Current market

***  Havana Gold and Mouro are early scratchings ***

10 of the last 13 winners of this race have paid double figure odds and the average winning price in that period has been about $25. Having said that eight favourites placed (three of whom won) in the same period.

As I've said above and as my recent results would indicate I have been following this Stradbroke formline and I think Linton is massive overs here. He went super first-up when fifth in that hot Rupert Clarke Stakes (below) behind Rebel Dane, Fontelina, Solzhenitsyn and Speediness. Forgive the Toorak run when he felt the firm track. The distinct possibility of the sting out of the ground tomorrow appeals.

Boban must go in because he just keeps on winning. The most improved horse in the land in my humble opinion but he has to give weight to seasoned older horses now. He has gone from the hunter to the hunted and won't get in under the radar anymore. Crunched in early markets.

Toydini went enormous at the Valley when he was forced to go early in the Waterford Crystal Mile and sustain a long, sweeping run around the bend and still managed to get the prize. Not well placed under the handicap conditions however and I also wonder how many times they can go to the well because he's been in work a long time.

Sacred Falls possibly could have beaten Toydini last start if he had found clear running room earlier but he did get a soft run where the other had to do a ton of work. He's drawn to get a better run here too.

There are a few others I could entertain as roughies if you're looking for something to add some value to your exotics.

Solzhenitsyn went too badly to be true last start but he is a top class animal and could turn it around. Speediness is flying and meets Toydini and Sacred Falls two kilos better off and should get the gun run again. Spurtonic has no weight and looks a horse on the up plus the stable is flying high. Blackie is in career best form. Smokin' Joey's win last Saturday was devastating.

Locky's Selections

5 Linton
2 Boban
4 Toydini
3 Sacred Falls

VRC Sprint Classic (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Again I'm sticking with the Stradbroke formline.

Epaulette just did not handle Moonee Valley and I think he will be a better horse on a bigger track. He's won two out of three second-up including a G1 Golden Rose. The engagement of Kerrin McEvoy to ride this of all the three Darley runners is significant.

Buffering also comes out of the Straddie and picks himself through sheer tenacity and consistency. He finally broke through for his Maiden Group 1 last start and who is to say he can't win a second in as many starts just as Hot Danish did a few years back?

I risked Lucky Nine at Moonee Valley and it nearly cost me. I will not make that mistake again. He has obviously thrived in his new environment and he is a quality animal. A badly wet track would be a concern though.

Unpretentious is untapped and could be the blowout here. Looks to be a nice horse in the making but this is his biggest test to date. You have to throw them in at the deep end sooner or later though and he's earned his crack at this. Won during the Carnival here last year.

I've had to leave out some good horses but as I always say you can't have them all. Bel Sprinter could blow them away. Rebel Dane is quality. Sessions is in great nick. Platelet is a dual Group 1 winner. Tough race. Not a lot between them.

Locky's Selections

3 Epaulette
2 Buffering
1 Lucky Nine
11 Unpretentious

Other bets

Lockroy (Flemington Race 1 No. 5) is a regally bred two-year-old colt stepping out for the first time. His father More Than Ready sired Golden Slipper winners Sebring and Phelan Ready as well as the mighty mare More Joyous. His dam Polar Success won the Slipper in 2003. The stable can produce one fresh. $3.70.

La Amistad (Flemington Race 8 No. 14) is a lightly raced half-sister to Makybe Diva. She's had just the five career starts for two wins and two placings and has gotten better with each start. This is a massive step up in grade but her latest win was super impressive and if she continues her upward spiral I can easily have a bob each-way at the $8 on offer. Backed in from $17.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Darren Weir has trained a staggering 16 winners in the last three weeks - that's more than Peter Snowden and Gai Waterhouse. Nicholas Hall has had just seven rides for Weir this season but they have resulted in three wins and two seconds.

Tomorrow they link up on May's Dream (Flemington Race 6 No. 1) and it would be fitting if he tasted some Group 1 success after stable star Puissance de Lune had his Spring campaign prematurely cut short. 8th. Disappointing.

Flemington

VRC Oaks (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

I've got to start reading what I'm writing before naming my Top 4!

"Kirramosa will start favourite on the back of her dominant win in last Saturday's Wakeful Stakes. She came from a clear last and rounded them up in the space of a couple of strides to win by over a length and she was pulling away from them on the line. The effort is all the more remarkable in hindsight when you consider that most of the horses that won on the circle (as opposed to down the straight) had been on the speed. Paximadia (Race 1) led all the way. Ruscello (Race 2) led all the way. Side Glance (Race 5) went to the front around the 700m mark and wasn't headed. Polanski (Race 6) sat handy then pounced upon straightening. Red Tracer and Catkins (Race 7) sat 1-2 and ran the quinella. It just wasn't a swoopers day. Except for this girl that is."

Locky's Selections

4 Gypsy Diamond (4th)
3 Kirramosa (1st) $2.70 win / $1.30 place
1 May's Dream (8th)
6 Quayside (7th)

Other bets

Forarainyday (Flemington Race 4 No. 18) needs another scratching to get into the field because he is second emergency but if he does I'll be having a tickle each-way at the $12. Has only two career wins but both came at the 1100m. In fact he's never been worse than second at this distance in three starts. He also goes well fresh with a win and two placings from his three first-up attempts. As previously mentioned the stable goes well here at this time of year. Did not get into the field.

Snitzerland (Flemington Race 8 No. 3) is also from a stable that has a habit of bobbing up here during the carnival. If she is at her best she accounts for this lot easily so I am happy to take $4. 2nd. $1.80 place. Fought hard but the 2.5kg weight swing to the winner told. They easily accounted for the rest.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

Has anyone seen my cushion?
-  Nash Rawiller, Flemington, 5 November 2013

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Oaks preview

Well my Best Bet of the Day won and I also gave you The Cup winner in my Top 4 selections.

It just goes to show - even a blind chook gets some corn from time to time.

How did you do? Were my tips helpful? Let me hear your feedback either positive or negative by leaving a comment.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

Darren Weir has trained a staggering 16 winners in the last three weeks - that's more than Peter Snowden and Gai Waterhouse. Nicholas Hall has had just seven rides for Weir this season but they have resulted in three wins and two seconds.

Tomorrow they link up on May's Dream (Flemington Race 6 No. 1) and it would be fitting if he tasted some Group 1 success after stable star Puissance de Lune had his Spring campaign prematurely cut short.

Flemington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day with the chance of isolated showers late in the afternoon. ***

VRC Oaks (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Kirramosa will start favourite on the back of her dominant win in last Saturday's Wakeful Stakes. She came from a clear last and rounded them up in the space of a couple of strides to win by over a length and she was pulling away from them on the line. The effort is all the more remarkable in hindsight when you consider that most of the horses that won on the circle (as opposed to down the straight) had been on the speed. Paximadia (Race 1) led all the way. Ruscello (Race 2) led all the way. Side Glance (Race 5) went to the front around the 700m mark and wasn't headed. Polanski (Race 6) sat handy then pounced upon straightening. Red Tracer and Catkins (Race 7) sat 1-2 and ran the quinella. It just wasn't a swoopers day. Except for this girl that is.

Zanbagh is an interesting runner and a filly that I must confess I don't know a hell of a lot about. She came from worse than midfield last start against older mares and bolted in by five lengths. She may have been flattered by the heavy track but each time they have stepped her up in journey this prep she has gotten better. The stable already has a winner this Spring with Toydini successful in the Waterford Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day and Guy Walter does make a habit of bobbing up with a winner during the Flemington Carnival.

May's Dream is another coming from an in-form yard (see "Who's hot?" column above) and she is the one bred to get a staying trip being out of the mare She's Archie who ran 2nd in both a Melbourne Cup (behind Makybe Diva no less) and a Geelong Cup. Did challenge Guelph in the Thousand Guineas (below) but she appeared to have every possible chance in the Wakeful and the winner did come from behind her and give her windburn as she went past.

Gypsy Diamond - have I mentioned in-form stables? John O'Shea is enjoying a bit of a purple patch with 12 winners at a strike rate of better than one in four in the last 21 days. Amongst those were Melbourne winners Savvy Nature in the Vase on Cox Plate Day, Bernabeu yesterday and of course this girl at the Moonee Valley night meeting 13 days ago. This filly was making good ground late in the Wakeful and was only two lengths behind the winner and meets her 2.5kg better off tomorrow. Hoop James McDonald has ridden a few winners this Spring including It's A Dundeel in his upset victory over odds-on favourite Atlantic Jewel in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.

The next best in the market are Solicit and Arabian Gold. Their runs in the Wakeful were just OK and I have serious questions about their ability to run out 2500m.

Of the four roughies that are $26+ the one I could throw into exotics for a bit of value is Quayside. Her dam Quays won the 2001 Wakeful Stakes and her sire Street Cry won the 2002 Dubai World Cup so you'd think she'd eat up the mile and a half. Last start she stepped up to a trip beyond a mile for the first time and easily accounted for the boys, albeit in a Benchmark 64 restricted to three-year-olds.

Locky's Selections

4 Gypsy Diamond
3 Kirramosa
1 May's Dream
6 Quayside

Other bets

Forarainyday (Flemington Race 8 No. 3) needs another scratching to get into the field because he is second emergency but if he does I'll be having a tickle each-way at the $12. Has only two career wins but both came at the 1100m. In fact he's never been worse than second at this distance in three starts. He also goes well fresh with a win and two placings from his three first-up attempts. As previously mentioned the stable goes well here at this time of year.

Snitzerland (Flemington Race 8 No. 3) is also from a stable that has a habit of bobbing up here during the carnival. If she is at her best she accounts for this lot easily so I am happy to take $4.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

John O'Shea has been operating at almost 25% in the last three weeks with 11 winners from 45 runners. In the same period Chris Waller has had 12 from 88.

O'Shea has two runners at Flemington tomorrow and both are in Race 5 - Diamond Oasis (No. 7) 10th and Bernabeu  (No. 9) 1st $13.00 win / $3.90 place.

Flemington

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

I made the mistake of looking for value and ignoring the obvious. The best horse won. Red Cadeaux was gallant (again!). Mount Athos the only forward runner who held on. Simenon one to follow. Dandino and Fawkner were brave from well back.

Last time I wrote:

"Fiorente has not run a bad race since coming to Australia and given that he ran second in this race last year he's not really that badly treated with just 55kg. Barrier five is a big plus because it means Damien Oliver can position him closer to the lead than in previous runs. Gai Waterhouse horses have placed in this race three times. He's had the ideal weight-for-age preparation."

Locky's Selections

12 Seville (12th)
21 Verema (FF)
6 Fiorente (1st) $7.00 win / $2.70 place
18 Hawkspur (20th)

Other bets

Salon Soldier (Flemington Race 8 No. 5) showed promise at his first Australian start and comes from a form stable and will be ridden by a jockey in great touch at the moment. He's been well found in early markets though. $2.50. 1st. $2.90 win / $1.50 place. Good horse.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

No double standards here!
-  Paul Beshara, Flemington, 5 November 2013

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Melbourne Cup preview

A couple of winners on Saturday but also a couple of favourites that lost so a bit of a mixed bag.

But this is the one that counts.

LOOKING FORWARD

Who's hot?

John O'Shea has been operating at almost 25% in the last three weeks with 11 winners from 45 runners. In the same period Chris Waller has had 12 from 88.

O'Shea has two runners at Flemington tomorrow and both are in Race 5 - Diamond Oasis (No. 7) and Bernabeau  (No. 9).

Flemington

*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a sunny day. ***

Melbourne Cup (Group 1, 3200m, handicap)

Current market

***  There are no early scratchings ***

Seville is the horse in this race that profiles very similarly to Green Moon last year. He's having his second Spring Carnival since being imported, he was a Group 1 placegetter the previous year, he's a lightly weighted weight-for-age type and he's drawn well. Both came off final hit-outs in the Cox Plate and Seville arguably went better this year than Green Moon did last year.

Verema is a lightly raced mare who only started racing 18 months ago. Her trainer won The Cup three years ago with Americain and her jockey won two years ago on Dunaden. Was Group 3 placed over this distance at the Dubai World Cup meeting back in March and has won her last two starts including one at 3000m. Great barrier and no weight.

Fiorente has not run a bad race since coming to Australia and given that he ran second in this race last year he's not really that badly treated with just 55kg. Barrier five is a big plus because it means Damien Oliver can position him closer to the lead than in previous runs. Gai Waterhouse horses have placed in this race three times. He's had the ideal weight-for-age preparation.

Hawkspur is the only one in my Top Four that hasn't drawn well but I can't leave him out. Jim Cassidy showed on Saturday why he is regarded as one of the best jockeys in the land so hopefully his ability can offset the bad barrier. Another who has had an uninterrupted prep with one goal in mind.

As I've said so often in the past the problem with picking a Top Four is you're only allowed to have four. It means I've had to leave some good ones out.

Sea Moon has improved with every run in this country but he is a fighter. The weight bothers me though. Only Makybe Diva has carried more in the last 20 years.

Brown Panther is well drawn and has two mile form but I would have preferred to have seen him run in this country at least once.

Dandino probably should have won the Caulfield Cup and he's weighted and drawn to win but I think he is more of a 2400m horse.

Fawkner is another who I query over 3200m but his Caulfield Cup win was dominant and the stable is flying.

Mount Athos has a horrible barrier to contend with and will have to go back to the second half of the field and will just need too much luck.

Dear Demi ran out of her skin in both the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes and she does perform well here at Flemington but the wide barrier and the 3200m are a concern.

Locky's Selections

12 Seville
21 Verema
6 Fiorente
18 Hawkspur

Other bets

Salon Soldier (Flemington Race 8 No. 5) showed promise at his first Australian start and comes from a form satble and will be ridden by a jockey in great touch at the moment. He's been well found in early markets though. $2.50.

LOOKING BACK

Who's hot?

Kris Lees certainly isn't afraid to travel his horses - he's trained 10 winners since October 10 and they've come at Gosford, Doomben, Randwick (a double), Warwick Farm (twice), Newcastle, Wyong and Scone.

He has only two runners tomorrow and he's elected to travel one from his Broadmeadow base all the way to Flemington - the in-form mare Sharnee Rose (Race 7 No. 4). $11 is available. 4th. Good run behind three quality mares in a solid Group 1.

Flemington

VRC Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Polanski simply outstayed them. Tupac Amaru should have finished closer after getting flattened mid-race. Complacent was brave but 2000m may be more his go.

Locky's Selections

2 Complacent (2nd) $2.70 place
6 San Diego (12th)
3 Savvy Nature (14th)
16 Bring Something (7th)

Mackinnon Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Jamie Spencer take a bow. You pulled their pants down on Side Glance with a bold mid-race move. Dear Demi produced a super Cup trial.

Locky's Selections

4 Solzhenitsyn (9th)
6 Jet Away (6th)
5 Moriarty (3rd) 

Myer Classic (Group 1, 1600m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

Red Tracer is a very good mare. Catkins is on the way up. Fire Up Fifi gets Black Type in the stud book.

Locky's Selections

1 Red Tracer (1st) $3.10 / $1.60 place
2 Fire Up Fifi (3rd) $2.20 place
4 Sharnee Rose (4th)
5 Xanadu (12th)

Coolmore Stud Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)

How good is Zoustar?

Locky's Selections

1 Zoustar (1st) $2.10 win / $1.50 place
9 Missy Longstocking (9th)
11 Thump (7th)
5 Lion Of Belfort (3rd) $3.20 place

Other bets

Hucklebuck (Flemington Race 1 No. 2) is one I've been following for a while as regular readers would know. Won with a leg in the air last time out and meets a similar field here. He'll be short because he's been crunched in early markets but he should just win and get us off to a great start this week. $2.25. 2nd. $1.20 place. Bad ride. Got too far back in a trot and canter affair.

May's Dream (Flemington Race 2 No. 3) is a daughter of Geelong and Melbourne Cup placegetter She's Archie so she is bred to run a trip. She was the only filly to seriously challenge Guelph in the Thousand Guineas and they cleared out from the rest. Another who will be skinny odds but looks to have these covered. Hopefully the first two races can pay for my week on the punt. $2.30. 2nd. $1.30 place. Had every possible chance.

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

Nurse!
-  Derek & Clive, 1977

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