A massive weekend of racing with four Group 1's, the final spots in the Melbourne Cup up for grabs, the major lead-up race to the Oaks - I could go on and on.
A mixed bag at the Valley last weekend but at least we got to see Buffering finally break through for his maiden Group 1 victory.
A mixed bag at the Valley last weekend but at least we got to see Buffering finally break through for his maiden Group 1 victory.
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Kris Lees certainly isn't afraid to travel his horses - he's trained 10 winners since October 10 and they've come at Gosford, Doomben, Randwick (a double), Warwick Farm (twice), Newcastle, Wyong and Scone.
He has only two runners tomorrow and he's elected to travel one from his Broadmeadow base all the way to Flemington - the in-form mare Sharnee Rose (Race 7 No. 4). $11 is available.
Flemington
*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. The forecast is for a mostly sunny day. ***
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Complacent has safely held Savvy Nature in their two Sydney encounters (see the Spring Champion Stakes replay below) so it's hard to see how the latter has come up favourite. He crabbed around the Valley in the Vase last weekend and still managed to win but the second horse was a $201 chance whose only win was a maiden at Murtoa. This is much harder and he won't be able to get away making mistakes like that.
Polanski is next in the market and deservedly so after two good wins. Prior to that he ran in the Stutt Stakes which is looking a hot race now after producing the Caulfield Guineas placegetters and the Cox Plate winner!
San Diego also contested the Stutt and just found Polanski a little too strong last time out in the Norman Robinson but he was strong through the line and gives the impression the extra 500m will suit. He was another who ran well in the Stutt.
Criterion split Complacent and Savvy Nature in the Spring Champion and he could be the real improver here because he only seems to be hitting his straps now whereas a few of these others have been up so long you'd swear they're on Viagra. His coat was only just starting to come through last start so expect him to look a picture in the paddock.
All the rest are likely to start double figures but there are some I could entertain in exotics. Bring Something looked good in the Stutt and last start he was the only backmarker to make ground in a leader dominated Norman Robinson. Tupac Amaru looks like he'll stay all day and Darley are making a habit of winning these 3-y-o Group 1's.
Locky's Selections
2 Complacent
6 San Diego
3 Savvy Nature
16 Bring Something
6 San Diego
3 Savvy Nature
16 Bring Something
*** There are no early scratchings ***
If you go back through the archive and read my post from this day last year you'll know I don't like backing horses in this race who are here as either a stepping stone, an afterthought or a consolation prize. 12 months ago I took on odds-on Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and got the chocolates with $8 chance Alcopop. So I'm happy to stick with the theory.
That means Melbourne Cup aspirants in Mourayan, Jet Away and Dear Demi come out of win calculations but not quinellas and trifectas. So too do Caulfield Cup hard luck stories Moriarty and Mr Moet. Side Glance has travelled all this way so they may as well have a throw at the stumps.
So basically I've got to choose between a recent open handicap winner, a recent Cranbourne Cup winner and a recent Group1 Toorak Handicap winner (below). It's a no brainer.
If you go back through the archive and read my post from this day last year you'll know I don't like backing horses in this race who are here as either a stepping stone, an afterthought or a consolation prize. 12 months ago I took on odds-on Cox Plate winner Ocean Park and got the chocolates with $8 chance Alcopop. So I'm happy to stick with the theory.
That means Melbourne Cup aspirants in Mourayan, Jet Away and Dear Demi come out of win calculations but not quinellas and trifectas. So too do Caulfield Cup hard luck stories Moriarty and Mr Moet. Side Glance has travelled all this way so they may as well have a throw at the stumps.
So basically I've got to choose between a recent open handicap winner, a recent Cranbourne Cup winner and a recent Group1 Toorak Handicap winner (below). It's a no brainer.
Locky's Selections
4 Solzhenitsyn
6 Jet Away
5 Moriarty
6 Jet Away
5 Moriarty
*** There are no early scratchings ***
If Red Tracer runs out the mile I think she wins this unless she gets a bad run in transit. She's a Group 1 winner with more than three times as much prizemoney as her nearest rival and yet she meets all these girls at level weights.
This race has provided some upsets in recent years however. In 2004 odds-on pop Alinghi got rolled by the Kiwi mare Miss Potential ($41). Two years later Lyrical Bid scored at $21. Sacred Choice ($21) lowered the colours of the great mare Typhoon Tracy in 2010 and 12 months later the mighty More Joyous failed to run a place in the race won by Hurtle Myrtle ($16). Just last year Appearance ($41) got the prize while the favourite (Streama) again failed to run a drum.
So if that's going to happen this year - who will it be?
Sharnee Rose boasts a win over Red Tracer already this prep (granted she got a four kilo pull in the weights that day) and she proved it was no fluke by winning again at her next start over subsequent Moonee Valley winner Queenstown. She's always shown promise and been touted as a mare of some ability but hadn't lived up to her reputation. The move to the Lees stable however appears to have done the trick.
Fire Up Fifi closed well behind Red Tracer last start in an event when none of the others really did. The Queensland form is looking good at the moment too with recent winners including Liesele, Missy Longstocking, Buffering, Solzhenitsyn, Spirit of Boom and of course this girl two weeks ago.
Catkins was a good winner last Saturday but I just wonder how many times they can go to the well with her. Xanadu went terrible last start but if you look back through her form she tends to do that - bad run, good run, bad run, good run. Is highly regarded back in NZ. Molto Bene can bounce back if she gets a truly run race and Zonza won well on Thousand Guineas Day and is drawn to get a good run.
If Red Tracer runs out the mile I think she wins this unless she gets a bad run in transit. She's a Group 1 winner with more than three times as much prizemoney as her nearest rival and yet she meets all these girls at level weights.
This race has provided some upsets in recent years however. In 2004 odds-on pop Alinghi got rolled by the Kiwi mare Miss Potential ($41). Two years later Lyrical Bid scored at $21. Sacred Choice ($21) lowered the colours of the great mare Typhoon Tracy in 2010 and 12 months later the mighty More Joyous failed to run a place in the race won by Hurtle Myrtle ($16). Just last year Appearance ($41) got the prize while the favourite (Streama) again failed to run a drum.
So if that's going to happen this year - who will it be?
Sharnee Rose boasts a win over Red Tracer already this prep (granted she got a four kilo pull in the weights that day) and she proved it was no fluke by winning again at her next start over subsequent Moonee Valley winner Queenstown. She's always shown promise and been touted as a mare of some ability but hadn't lived up to her reputation. The move to the Lees stable however appears to have done the trick.
Fire Up Fifi closed well behind Red Tracer last start in an event when none of the others really did. The Queensland form is looking good at the moment too with recent winners including Liesele, Missy Longstocking, Buffering, Solzhenitsyn, Spirit of Boom and of course this girl two weeks ago.
Catkins was a good winner last Saturday but I just wonder how many times they can go to the well with her. Xanadu went terrible last start but if you look back through her form she tends to do that - bad run, good run, bad run, good run. Is highly regarded back in NZ. Molto Bene can bounce back if she gets a truly run race and Zonza won well on Thousand Guineas Day and is drawn to get a good run.
Locky's Selections
1 Red Tracer
2 Fire Up Fifi
4 Sharnee Rose
5 Xanadu
2 Fire Up Fifi
4 Sharnee Rose
5 Xanadu
*** There are no early scratchings ***
Unlike the above Myer Classic this race has been quite good to favourite backers. Nechita, Sepoy, Star Witness, Northern Meteor, Weekend Hussler, Gold Edition and Alinghi have all saluted in the last decade. I think Zoustar will join them on the honour roll. To put it quite simply - he's just better than this lot.
That may seem unfair because there's some talented horses engaged. Divine Calling could be the revelation of the Spring with a good win in what's looking a hot Stutt Stakes and a gallant second in the Guineas (beating home Shamus Award both times!). Lion of Belfort has strung together three on end including a victory over the very talented (and unlucky) Hucklebuck. Eclair Big Bang should appreciate a softer track after jarring up in the Guineas. Thump has improved enormously now she is being ridden forward. Missy Longstocking just keeps on winning. Thermal Current and Notlistenin'tome have ability.
Unlike the above Myer Classic this race has been quite good to favourite backers. Nechita, Sepoy, Star Witness, Northern Meteor, Weekend Hussler, Gold Edition and Alinghi have all saluted in the last decade. I think Zoustar will join them on the honour roll. To put it quite simply - he's just better than this lot.
That may seem unfair because there's some talented horses engaged. Divine Calling could be the revelation of the Spring with a good win in what's looking a hot Stutt Stakes and a gallant second in the Guineas (beating home Shamus Award both times!). Lion of Belfort has strung together three on end including a victory over the very talented (and unlucky) Hucklebuck. Eclair Big Bang should appreciate a softer track after jarring up in the Guineas. Thump has improved enormously now she is being ridden forward. Missy Longstocking just keeps on winning. Thermal Current and Notlistenin'tome have ability.
Locky's Selections
1 Zoustar
9 Missy Longstocking
11 Thump
5 Lion Of Belfort
9 Missy Longstocking
11 Thump
5 Lion Of Belfort
Other bets
Hucklebuck (Flemington Race 1 No. 2) is one I've been following for a while as regular readers would know. Won with a leg in the air last time out and meets a similar field here. He'll be short because he's been crunched in early markets but he should just win and get us off to a great start this week. $2.25.
May's Dream (Flemington Race 2 No. 3) is a daughter of Geelong and Melbourne Cup placegetter She's Archie so she is bred to run a trip. She was the only filly to seriously challenge Guelph in the Thousand Guineas and they cleared out from the rest. Another who will be skinny odds but looks to have these covered. Hopefully the first two races can pay for my week on the punt. $2.30.
May's Dream (Flemington Race 2 No. 3) is a daughter of Geelong and Melbourne Cup placegetter She's Archie so she is bred to run a trip. She was the only filly to seriously challenge Guelph in the Thousand Guineas and they cleared out from the rest. Another who will be skinny odds but looks to have these covered. Hopefully the first two races can pay for my week on the punt. $2.30.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
James McDonald has ridden 14 winners since Epsom Day on October 5. In the last 21 days he has bagged a double and a treble at separate midweek Randwick Kensington meetings plus two doubles at Hawkesbury (one of those today) and another at Caulfield on Thousand Guineas Day.
His best chances at Moonee Valley this weekend appear to come up on Saturday with Savvy Nature (Race 5 No. 1) 1st ($1.80 win / $1.10 place) and It's A Dundeel (Race 10 No. 11) 8th.
Also won on Friday night on Gypsy Diamond ($15.00 win / $2.70 place).
His best chances at Moonee Valley this weekend appear to come up on Saturday with Savvy Nature (Race 5 No. 1) 1st ($1.80 win / $1.10 place) and It's A Dundeel (Race 10 No. 11) 8th.
Also won on Friday night on Gypsy Diamond ($15.00 win / $2.70 place).
Moonee Valley
Manikato Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
Great to see Buffering finally break his duck. The Hong Kong horse appears to have arrived in good order. Samaready was discovered to have bled internally so can be forgiven. They look an even bunch though so the Patinack next weekend is wide open. Unless Zoustar backs up and smashes 'em.
Locky's Selections
10 Samaready (8th)
2 Buffering (1st) $8.10 win / $2.30 place
12 Arinosa (12th)
7 Rebel Dane (5th)
2 Buffering (1st) $8.10 win / $2.30 place
12 Arinosa (12th)
7 Rebel Dane (5th)
Cox Plate (Group 1, 2040m, w-f-a)
Not a Cox Plate I will look back on and think of as vintage. Full marks to young Chad Schofield though for summing it up perfectly and pulling their pants down. Seville and Fiorente turned in super Cup trials.
Locky's Selections
11 It's A Dundeel (8th)
2 Happy Trails (2nd) $3.50 place
8 Puissance De Lune (12th)
9 Masked Marvel (13th)
2 Happy Trails (2nd) $3.50 place
8 Puissance De Lune (12th)
9 Masked Marvel (13th)
Other bets
Black Cash (Moonee Valley FRIDAY Race 2 No. 1) is another Queenslander hoping to come south and pinch the Victorian prizemoney. In form hoop Damian Browne takes the ride and should offset the big weight but he's earned it after two strong wins in Brisbane this prep. $2.50. 4th. Damian Browne reported the horse had to do a lot of work early which was detrimental with the big weight and a post-race examination revealed that the gelding suffered from the thumps.
Sneak A Peek (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 7 No. 2) has a sense of timing about him after two good runs in Sydney. Should be peaking now and the stable broke through for a much needed Spring Carnival feature win when Ibicenco claimed the Geelong Cup yesterday. $3.50. 8th. Luke Nolen could offer no explanation for the dismal performance. Trainer Peter Moody says the horse will be sent for a spell and gelded.
Sacred Falls (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 8 No. 9) is well in here at the weight-for-age conditions. Meets Toydini two and a half kilos better off than in the Epsom and gets half a kilo from the other main danger in Speediness. Fourth run last time in he won the Doncaster on a wet track at this distance. $4.50. 3rd. $2.10 place. Might have won if he found clear running room earlier but full credit to the winner Toydini who was forced to make a long, searching run.
Sneak A Peek (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 7 No. 2) has a sense of timing about him after two good runs in Sydney. Should be peaking now and the stable broke through for a much needed Spring Carnival feature win when Ibicenco claimed the Geelong Cup yesterday. $3.50. 8th. Luke Nolen could offer no explanation for the dismal performance. Trainer Peter Moody says the horse will be sent for a spell and gelded.
Sacred Falls (Moonee Valley SATURDAY Race 8 No. 9) is well in here at the weight-for-age conditions. Meets Toydini two and a half kilos better off than in the Epsom and gets half a kilo from the other main danger in Speediness. Fourth run last time in he won the Doncaster on a wet track at this distance. $4.50. 3rd. $2.10 place. Might have won if he found clear running room earlier but full credit to the winner Toydini who was forced to make a long, searching run.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
I can't believe we didn't put in at least one ATM.
- Project Manager : Great Wall of China, Shanghai, 206 B.C.
- Project Manager : Great Wall of China, Shanghai, 206 B.C.
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