Friday, 19 July 2013

Winter Stakes preview

Some pretty average racing across the board this weekend and expect the same to continue for the next month or so.

As a result I'll be scaling back my wagering in an attempt to save some coin for the upcoming Spring Carnival.

But I'll still be analysing the races each weekend and hopefully will still be able to find some winners.

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Allan Denham has had six winners and four placegetters from his last 15 runners stretching back to July 5 including winners at Canterbury, Muswellbrook, Newcastle (twice) and a double at Taree. Best chance tomorrow appears to be Mount Nebo (Rosehill Race 3 No. 5).

Rosehill





*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6. Expect improvement though because there has been just 4mm of rain in the last week and none in the last 24 hours and the forecast is for a mostly sunny day tomorrow. ***

Winter Stakes (Listed, 1400m, quality handicap)

* See The World, Shadows in the Sun and Prince of Capers are early scratchings

Current market

Not at all enthusiastic about this race but as it is nominally the feature race of the day I will preview it - albeit under sufferance.

Putting Mic Mac on top despite the big weight because he showed glimpses of his old self last start and he is a former topliner (he placed in a Stradbroke) plus he did lump a big impost last time out anyway. He's also won two from two at this track and distance.

The obvious danger is the Gai Waterhouse trained Under the Sun. He's been consistent of late and wasn't far away behind Mic Mac last start and meets him a kilo better off.

Next best is Bold Glance who has the services of that man Nash Rawiller who could win on a broomstick at the moment.

But for God's sake don't sell the tractor, mortgage the farm and hock Grandma's old jewelry because as I said this is not a race I really want anything to do with.

Locky's Selections

1 Mic Mac
9 Under The Sun
5 Bold Glance

Other bets

Shafeeq (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 5) goes well second-up (4:3-0-0) and was good first-up when making all the running only to be just run down (half a length) in the shadows of the post in the Ascot Handicap. Races well at Eagle Farm and although he's never won beyond 1100m he's only ever had the two attempts at 1200m for a third and the aforementioned close-up fourth last start. Should be able to get $5.50.

Relaxed and Happy (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) was scratched last week so I'll stay solid, especially given the track is likely to get back to a dead surface now. Talented on his day and his last two failures were on wet tracks. $3.60 is available.

Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) got us the coin a fortnight ago and I can't see any reason not to butter up here tomorrow. Will be backable at about $4.80 and meets Biadiamond (1.5kg) and Tranquera (2.5kg) better off for having beaten them last start. Is a bit of a specialist at the Flemington 1400m start with two wins from as many attempts. An in-form mare in a race where the rest aren't and it pays to follow the girls when they string a few together.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


The Werribee track has come in for scathing criticism after the midweek meeting had to be abandoned with two races remaining following two horse fatalities and a fall which saw 15-year-old apprentice jockey Boris Thornton taken to hospital.

Leading jockey Glen Boss described the circuit as "without doubt the worst track I have ridden on" and Racing Victoria have confirmed an investigation is underway.

Remember this is the same track that hosts international Cup hopefuls during the Spring Carnival. Not a good look!

Sea Siren has finally broken through for another win.

Coolmore's new acquisition claimed the Listed Belgrave Stakes for trainer Aidan O'Brien in Ireland last weekend, her first victory since she claimed the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley last Spring.

Damien Oliver returned to trackwork on Monday after completing his eight month disqualification for betting.

Ollie said "it's up to me to prove that I can be accepted into (the) industry again" but also said "he's just trying to look forward, not back".

Meanwhile Blake Shinn has had a disastrous week. He incurred two suspensions amounting to 27 meetings at Warwick Farm last Saturday then copped another 14 meetings at Sandown the following day.

The sentences must be served cumulatively meaning he will be sidelined from July 18 until August 29.

Brisbane trainer Robert Heathcote has finally broken through to notch his 100th winner of the season.

St Andrews won the last at Doomben on Wednesday to end a frustrating run of 30 outs that saw Heathcote winless since July 3.

Lastly Bart Cummings and grandson James have been granted permission by racing officials to commence a training partnership.

It will take effect as of August 1, 60 years after Bart was first granted a licence.

LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Since last Thursday Darren Smith has trained winners at Wyong, Gunnedah, Newcastle, Muswellbrook and Kembla Grange. In fact he's taken 11 horses to the races in the last nine days and has come away with five winners and two seconds. Has four runners at Newcastle tomorrow, a track where in the last 12 months he has trained 22 winners and 24 placegetters from just 73 starters (Win 30% / Place 63%). Was successful with Cara De Luna ($5.10 win / $1.80 place).


Caulfield


Sir John Monash Stakes (Listed, 1100m, w-f-a)

Well the rock-hard fit horse was too good for the fresh opposition. I did manage to find the winner in my top three even if I didn't have him on top:

"Pago Rock is unbeaten at the trip (three from three) and is a last start winner."

Locky's Selections

10 Mrs Onassis (6th)
9 Happy Galaxy (8th)
6 Pago Rock (1st) $8.90 win / $2.50 place

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Relaxed and Happy (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 13) can mix his form but is talented enough on his day. His two failures this time in have been on wet tracks so he'll appreciate being back on what I'm predicting will be firmer ground by the time this race rolls around. Hard to go past the Chris Waller/Nash Rawiller combination too. SCRATCHED.

Southern Girl (Newcastle Race 5 No. 4). Aforementioned form trainer Darren Smith and hoop Grant Buckley are a formidable combo, having joined forces 23 times in the last 12 months for eight winners and eight placegetters. (Win 34.8% / Place 69.6%). 8th.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


Not out.
- Aleem Dar, Trent Bridge, 13 July 2013

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