Thursday, 11 July 2013

Sir John Monash Stakes preview

Just the three Listed races this weekend with the Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield, the Beaufine Stakes (1000m) at Belmont and the Tattersall's Mile (1600m) at Doomben.

The good news is the first Group 1 of next season gets closer with every passing day!

Just seven weeks and counting until the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield on August 31...

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Since last Thursday Darren Smith has trained winners at Wyong, Gunnedah, Newcastle, Muswellbrook and Kembla Grange. In fact he's taken 11 horses to the races in the last nine days and has come away with five winners and two seconds. Has four runners at Newcastle tomorrow, a track where in the last 12 months he has trained 22 winners and 24 placegetters from just 73 starters (Win 30% / Place 63%).


Caulfield





*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. There has been 14mm of rain in the last week but there has been none in the last 24 hours. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a late afternoon shower. ***

Sir John Monash Stakes (Listed, 1100m, w-f-a)

* Atomic Force is an early scratching

Current market

The last two times Mrs Onassis has been first-up she has contested 1100m races and won. The most recent of those was her victory in the Oakleigh Plate back in February (below). In fact seven of her eight career wins have been at this distance and she's unbeaten here at Caulfield from the 1100m start. Blinkers go back on so that's a good sign Gerald Ryan is fair dinkum. That'll do me.

Happy Galaxy is the obvious danger. He has shown himself to be of above average ability, winning five of his eight career starts including his last four on the trot. That run culminated with victories in the Listed Zeditave Stakes and Group 3 Expressway Stakes early in the year. Isn't suited by the w-f-a conditions though, having to concede 1.5kg to a Group 1 winner.

Skytrain is hard to have on recent efforts and this looks a tad short as his best form has been at 1200m. The same can be said of Second Effort although there is early money to suggest he can run a bit of a race ($16 into $9) and he will warrant careful scrutiny if the forecast rain comes earlier than expected because he's had 11 starts on slow or heavy going for nine wins. But his Good/Dead track form is woeful. (17:1-3-3)

Pago Rock is unbeaten at the trip (three from three) and is a last start winner although Zamorar wasn't far behind him that day and does meet him 2.5kg better off at the weights.

Elite Elle faces a stiff class rise and Zedi Knight hasn't won for a while. Stanzout is older than God and Big Buddie couldn't win even if he started running now.

Locky's Selections

10 Mrs Onassis
9 Happy Galaxy
6 Pago Rock


Other bets

Relaxed and Happy (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 13) can mix his form but is talented enough on his day. His two failures this time in have been on wet tracks so he'll appreciate being back on what I'm predicting will be firmer ground by the time this race rolls around. Hard to go past the Chris Waller/Nash Rawiller combination too.

Southern Girl (Newcastle Race 5 No. 4). Aforementioned form trainer Darren Smith and hoop Grant Buckley are a formidable combo, having joined forces 23 times in the last 12 months for eight winners and eight placegetters. (Win 34.8% / Place 69.6%).

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Since I last put pen to paper trainer Chris Waller has finally broken the record for the most metropolitan winners in a single season. 

As a friend of mine texted last Saturday afternoon "Thank God we can stop hearing about that 'When will Waller break the record crap' and move on". Amen brother.

It wasn't such a good week for leading Melbourne trainer Wayne Hawkes who was allegedly assaulted by a man armed with a monkey wrench.

Racing Victoria Stewards and Victoria Police are investigating the incident that occurred at Flemington on Wednesday morning.

Jockey Glen Boss returns to riding at Caulfield tomorrow following a knee operation and a one-month suspension.

He got through a solid hit-out on the training track on Tuesday and said that although the knee is a bit stiff it's improving every day and that by tomorrow it'll be the best it's been in years.

Meantime comeback jockey Chris Munce enjoyed a good week, bagging four winners at Eagle Farm on Wednesday.

The Clarence River Jockey Club enjoyed yet another successful two day Grafton carnival. Youthful Jack ($51) caused a boilover in the Ramornie Handicap on Wednesday and Mr O'Ceirin ($5) held on for a gutsy win in the Grafton Cup yesterday (below, left of picture).



Don't forget the July Cup meeting from Newmarket is on tomorrow night our time - trainer Danny O'Brien and Shamexpress will be flying the Aussie flag.

Lastly on a light note Irish jumps jockey Danny Mullins has appealed after stewards rubbed him out for 14 meetings for driving an unattended ambulance back to the weighing room.

Mullins mount had pulled up and he felt assistance was slow in coming so he jumped into the vehicle to make sure he would get back in time to weigh out for the following race.

Not sure if he turned the siren on or not.


LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Nash Rawiller had six rides at Warwick Farm on Wednesday for three winners, two seconds and a third. Backed that up with a double at Wyong yesterday from just three rides. Also rode a winner at Rosehill on Monday. Didn't ride last weekend due to the wash-out but the previous Saturday had two winners from two rides at Eagle Farm with Red Tracer (Tatt's Tiara) and Howmuchdoyouloveme (Healy Stakes). Has 13 wins from just 40 rides in the last three weeks at a strike rate of 32.5% or just a tick under one win every three rides. Has quite a few winning chances at Rosehill tomorrow. Had six rides for three winners and two placegetters including Oompa Loompa ($2.40), Fulgur ($4.60) and Eigelstein ($2.30).

Eagle Farm


Queensland Cup (Listed, 3200m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Turner Bayou is the interesting runner. He's a lightly raced Zabeel gelding who handles wet tracks and shows staying promise. He's also in form which a lot of these aren't and trainer Paddy Payne has tasted success in this race before with Kerdem in 2008. He won't know himself with the 54kg either after lumping big weights in his three most recent outings.

Best roughie for mine is Fifth Column. An improving three-year-old on the way up who has shown staying potential and is in winning form. Has good wet track credentials and will be about $35."


Locky's Selections

6 Turner Bayou (1st) $3.30 win / $1.50 place
1 Ibicenco (5th)
12 Fifth Column (2nd) $6.30 place

Exacta 6-12 $69.90
Quinella 6-12 $61.80
Any 2  6-12  $18.50


Ascot Handicap (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Doubtfilly can improve back to the 1200m. Apart from an eye-catching third at Ipswich her recent runs have been poor but I don't think she runs a strong 1400m. Go back to four runs ago where she beat Someday at this track and distance on a heavy track. Jockey is in super form too.

Griffon is talented on his day but his last outing was diabolical. If he bounces back to form he can figure in the finish and his wet track credentials are better than others."


Locky's Selections

2 Delago Bolt (9th)
12 Doubtfilly (1st) $5.20 win / $2.10 place
3 Griffon (2nd) $2.50 place

Exacta 12-3 $35.10
Quinella 12-3 $24.10
Any 2  12-3 $10.20

Other bets

World Wide (Rosehill Race 3 No. 3) has won five from five on heavy ground and has won twice at the distance. Is in good form too having won his last two including a one and a half length win over Destiny's Kiss who subsequently won his next two starts. Should be able to get $4.60. 4th.

Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) is another in fine form, coming off back-to-back wins. Won at this track and distance last start fairly impressively and despite a stiff weight rise can make it three in a row tomorrow at $3.60. 1st. $5.30 win / $2.00 place.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


Say no to drugs.
- Jobe Watson, Essendon, 2012



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