The quality of racing will drop off over the next month and a half with most of the good horses in the paddock awaiting Spring Carnival campaigns.
Nonetheless there are still winners to be found and the racing should still be competitive with Listed racing all down the eastern seaboard and in WA.
Eagle Farm is the venue for the stayers in the Queensland Cup (3200m) plus the Ascot Handicap (1200m) for the sprinters. In NSW we venture to Rosehill for the Civic Stakes (1350m) and across the Nullabor we have the Belmont Oaks (2000m).
Meanwhile in Victoria Flemington hosts three black type races in the Winter Championship Series Final (1600m), the All Victorian Sprint Series Final (1200m) and the Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m).
Nonetheless there are still winners to be found and the racing should still be competitive with Listed racing all down the eastern seaboard and in WA.
Eagle Farm is the venue for the stayers in the Queensland Cup (3200m) plus the Ascot Handicap (1200m) for the sprinters. In NSW we venture to Rosehill for the Civic Stakes (1350m) and across the Nullabor we have the Belmont Oaks (2000m).
Meanwhile in Victoria Flemington hosts three black type races in the Winter Championship Series Final (1600m), the All Victorian Sprint Series Final (1200m) and the Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m).
LOOKING FORWARD
Who's hot?
Nash Rawiller had six rides at Warwick Farm on Wednesday for three winners, two seconds and a third. Backed that up with a double at Wyong yesterday from just three rides. Also rode a winner at Rosehill on Monday. Didn't ride last weekend due to the wash-out but the previous Saturday had two winners from two rides at Eagle Farm with Red Tracer (Tatt's Tiara) and Howmuchdoyouloveme (Healy Stakes). Has 13 wins from just 40 rides in the last three weeks at a strike rate of 32.5% or just a tick under one win every three rides. Has quite a few winning chances at Rosehill tomorrow.
Eagle Farm
Queensland Cup (Listed, 3200m, quality handicap)
A field of 12 here but eight of them are likely to start at $26 or more so this race has a pretty long tail.
Ibicenco will start favourite but it's a big ask to carry 59kg over two miles on a wet track. It would be the biggest weight lumped to victory in this race since Barallan carried the metric equivalent of 62kg (9st 11lb) in 1909. Tinseltown (58kg) in 2011 is the only horse to have won with more than 55.5kg in the last 20 years. I think $2.80 is poison but he should run into a place on class alone. Has won at the trip so that's a big plus.
Turner Bayou is the interesting runner. He's a lightly raced Zabeel gelding who handles wet tracks and shows staying promise. He's also in form which a lot of these aren't and trainer Paddy Payne has tasted success in this race before with Kerdem in 2008. He won't know himself with the 54kg either after lumping big weights in his three most recent outings.
Best roughie for mine is Fifth Column. An improving three-year-old on the way up who has shown staying potential and is in winning form. Has good wet track credentials and will be about $35.
Verdant and Muirfield haven't fired a shot since coming to Queensland.
Locky's Selections
Ibicenco will start favourite but it's a big ask to carry 59kg over two miles on a wet track. It would be the biggest weight lumped to victory in this race since Barallan carried the metric equivalent of 62kg (9st 11lb) in 1909. Tinseltown (58kg) in 2011 is the only horse to have won with more than 55.5kg in the last 20 years. I think $2.80 is poison but he should run into a place on class alone. Has won at the trip so that's a big plus.
Turner Bayou is the interesting runner. He's a lightly raced Zabeel gelding who handles wet tracks and shows staying promise. He's also in form which a lot of these aren't and trainer Paddy Payne has tasted success in this race before with Kerdem in 2008. He won't know himself with the 54kg either after lumping big weights in his three most recent outings.
Best roughie for mine is Fifth Column. An improving three-year-old on the way up who has shown staying potential and is in winning form. Has good wet track credentials and will be about $35.
Verdant and Muirfield haven't fired a shot since coming to Queensland.
Locky's Selections
6 Turner Bayou
1 Ibicenco
12 Fifth Column
1 Ibicenco
12 Fifth Column
Ascot Handicap (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)
Delago Bolt is racing in fine form and despite meeting some others here worse at the weights (Funtantes, Benny's Buttons, Liesele) I think he's a solid each-way bet at $6.50. He was only a length behind Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad over this same course and distance last start and either one of those two would start a short priced favourite here. Has a win and three placings from four starts at the track.
Doubtfilly can improve back to the 1200m. Apart from an eye-catching third at Ipswich her recent runs have been poor but I don't think she runs a strong 1400m. Go back to four runs ago where she beat Someday at this track and distance on a heavy track. Jockey is in super form too.
Griffon is talented on his day but his last outing was diabolical. If he bounces back to form he can figure in the finish and his wet track credentials are better than others like Benny's Buttons and Listen Son.
Locky's Selections
Doubtfilly can improve back to the 1200m. Apart from an eye-catching third at Ipswich her recent runs have been poor but I don't think she runs a strong 1400m. Go back to four runs ago where she beat Someday at this track and distance on a heavy track. Jockey is in super form too.
Griffon is talented on his day but his last outing was diabolical. If he bounces back to form he can figure in the finish and his wet track credentials are better than others like Benny's Buttons and Listen Son.
Locky's Selections
12 Doubtfilly
3 Griffon
Other bets
World Wide (Rosehill Race 3 No. 3) has won five from five on heavy ground and has won twice at the distance. Is in good form too having won his last two including a one and a half length win over Destiny's Kiss who subsequently won his next two starts. Should be able to get $4.60.
Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) is another in fine form, coming off back-to-back wins. Won at this track and distance last start fairly impressively and despite a stiff weight rise can make it three in a row tomorrow at $3.60
Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) is another in fine form, coming off back-to-back wins. Won at this track and distance last start fairly impressively and despite a stiff weight rise can make it three in a row tomorrow at $3.60
NEWS OF THE WEEK
Jockey Jay Ford was suspended for careless riding at the Warwick farm meeting midweek and will begin a five meeting ban starting next Thursday that will see him out of action until July 21.
The very same day comeback hoop Bob El-Issa earned a seven meeting stretch for careless riding in the opening race at Doomben. The suspension starts after tomorrow's Eagle Farm meeting and he is free to resume riding on July 18.
Meantime experienced jock Glenn Lynch has been banned from riding at TAB meetings for six months after incurring 11 careless riding suspensions in the last 18 months.
The news is better for the disqualified Damien Oliver however, he's been cleared to return to trackwork on July 13 when his eight month ban ends.
Lastly trainer Chris Waller needs just one winner at tomorrow's Rosehill meeting to break the record for the most metropolitan victories in a single season.
The current record of 156 is held jointly by the great Tommy Smith and his daughter Gai Waterhouse.
The very same day comeback hoop Bob El-Issa earned a seven meeting stretch for careless riding in the opening race at Doomben. The suspension starts after tomorrow's Eagle Farm meeting and he is free to resume riding on July 18.
Meantime experienced jock Glenn Lynch has been banned from riding at TAB meetings for six months after incurring 11 careless riding suspensions in the last 18 months.
The news is better for the disqualified Damien Oliver however, he's been cleared to return to trackwork on July 13 when his eight month ban ends.
Lastly trainer Chris Waller needs just one winner at tomorrow's Rosehill meeting to break the record for the most metropolitan victories in a single season.
The current record of 156 is held jointly by the great Tommy Smith and his daughter Gai Waterhouse.
LOOKING BACK
Who's hot?
Damian Browne is the man to follow at the Sunshine Coast. His last 16 rides at the track (since May 19) have resulted in eight winners and four placegetters (Win 50% / Place 75%) including a winning treble on May 31 and doubles on May 19 and May 26. Has ridden 47 winners at the track in the last 12 months at a strike rate of almost one winner every three rides. No other jockey has ridden more than 30. Won the Caloundra Cup aboard Zennista $6.60 win / $2.20 place.
Sunshine Coast
Caloundra Cup (Listed, 2400m, quality handicap)
Last week I wrote:
"I can't argue with the market here - I think Zennista and Shenzou Steeds will fight it out and I'm leaning to the former. Zennista's last two runs have been good enough to win a race like this. She followed a close up fourth behind Solzhenitsyn in the unsuitably short Lord Mayors Cup before solid thirds in the Premiers and Brisbane Cups. Has looked to have Shenzou Steed's measure the last two times they met. That man Browne takes the ride."
"I can't argue with the market here - I think Zennista and Shenzou Steeds will fight it out and I'm leaning to the former. Zennista's last two runs have been good enough to win a race like this. She followed a close up fourth behind Solzhenitsyn in the unsuitably short Lord Mayors Cup before solid thirds in the Premiers and Brisbane Cups. Has looked to have Shenzou Steed's measure the last two times they met. That man Browne takes the ride."
Locky's Selections
4 Zennista (1st) $6.60 win / $2.20 place
5 Shenzou Steeds (4th)
9 Kaypers (7th)
5 Shenzou Steeds (4th)
9 Kaypers (7th)
Glasshouse Handicap (Listed, 1400m, quality handicap)
My original tip River Lad was scratched but otherwise I wasn't too far off the mark:
"Best of the rest is Belltone who went too bad to be true in the Stradbroke. Can bounce back. Someday will likely start favourite and he is another one I tipped last week when he was the victim of a curious ride. Great record at the distance but has never won on slow or heavy although has been placed four times out of four."
Locky's Selections
"Best of the rest is Belltone who went too bad to be true in the Stradbroke. Can bounce back. Someday will likely start favourite and he is another one I tipped last week when he was the victim of a curious ride. Great record at the distance but has never won on slow or heavy although has been placed four times out of four."
Locky's Selections
1 Belltone (3rd) $3.70 place
13 Someday (1st) $3.60 win / $2.20 place
Other bets
Disciple (Rosehill Race 9 No. 12) is in great form and it took an in-form galloper to run him down last start. Has a great record at the track and distance and has a jockey and trainer who are in good touch. $6 looks generous. MEETING ABANDONED.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Nice day for a walk.
- Stephen King, Lovell (Maine), 19 June 1999
- Stephen King, Lovell (Maine), 19 June 1999
Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!
No comments:
Post a Comment