Friday, 26 July 2013

Bletchingly Stakes preview

Another average weekend of racing and as I've said over recent weeks expect it to continue.

I'll still be doing my tips each week and analyzing the "feature events" in more detail but I'll also be adding a new section (below) to hopefully stir up the blood as we head towards another Spring Carnival.

THE SULTANS OF SPRING


Makybe Diva. Phar Lap. Kingston Town.

Every year as the Spring Carnival approaches we hear about the mighty deeds of these Spring champs of yesteryear.

But what of the forgotten heroes? What of the grand campaigners of Spring Carnivals gone by whose names we seldom, if ever hear?

Over the coming weeks, as the Spring Carnival gradually approaches before finally engulfing us, I will revisit the deeds of some of the superstars of years gone by.

I will look at, if you will allow me to wax lyrical, "The Sultans of Spring". (Apologies to Dire Straits.)

Poseidon


What this bloke did in the Spring of his three-year-old year was extraordinary.

A moderately performed two-year-old with just one win to his name from six starts, Poseidon's true potential was about to rise from the deep.

In the space of just under nine weeks he would start eight times for seven wins and a second. After victories in two minor races in Sydney, he claimed the AJC Derby (then run in the Spring) by three lengths before suffering the only defeat of his campaign when backing up two days later against older horses in the Metropolitan Handicap.

He then journeyed to Melbourne to claim the weight-for-age Eclipse Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield then returned to the same venue three days later to win the Caulfield Cup. A fortnight after that he would win the VRC Derby before winning the Melbourne Cup three days later.

In all he would start 14 times in the 1906-07 season for 11 wins and three seconds.

As if that wasn't enough, Poseidon returned the following Spring and won the Eclipse Stakes (again) and then became the first horse to win back-to-back Caulfield Cups, again on a three-day back-up. He made it three wins on end two weeks later with victory in the Mackinnon Stakes on Derby Day.

He would race at Flemington just two more times. Three days later he finished eighth in his second Melbourne Cup lumping 65kg, before running second on the final day of the carnival in the CB Fisher Plate, now known as the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.



LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

In the month of July Gold Coast trainer Helen Page has taken 18 horses to the races for six winners and four placegetters (Win 33.3% / Place 55.5%). Love Stories looks her best tomorrow. (Gold Coast Race 4 No. 13)

Caulfield





*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. Expect improvement though because there has been just 3mm of rain since last weekend and the forecast is for a sunny morning and strong winds. ***

Bletchingly Stakes (Group 3, 1200m, w-f-a)


Pago Rock has been in great form this prep winning three from four and he has shown an affinity for this Caulfield track. Was strong at the end of the Bletchingly so the step up to 1200m isn't a concern, especially given he's won three times at the trip. Hayes and Schofield have been a great combo this season with more than 50 winners and 100 placegetters. Won't be any flash price but you won't go broke backing winners.

Elite Elle will give a good sight for a long way and it did take Pago Rock a while to get past her last time out. She's an honest mare in good form and she does go well at the Caulfield 1200m with two wins and a second over the journey here. Handles all surfaces.

I feel Launay is a better horse second-up and a better horse at 1400m, but the stable has said this is no stepping stone and he's in this race to win. I'd still prefer him with a run under his belt although his first-up form is sound if not spectacular (8:1-4-1) so you probably have to include him in your exotics.

Second Effort races best on wet tracks and races best three or more runs into his campaign. With the drying track and the tough run first-up I'm happy to risk him at $4.50.

Hard to entertain any of the others. Sea Lord, Mr Make Believe and Zamorar are handy types but their recent form has been poor.

Locky's Selections

5 Pago Rock
11 Elite Elle
2 Launay

Other bets

Koe (Caulfield Race 8 No. 11) got us the chocolates last start and was scratched last weekend when tipped here, after the track underwent a series of downgrades due to the inclement weather. I'll stick solid even though this is a tougher assignment here up against the boys but on the plus side of the ledger she does get some weight relief - dropping to 54kg after lumping 60kg to victory in fillies and mares grade last start. Has won four from five this prep including her last three in a row, all at the 1400m. A mare who is in-form in a race where a lot of these boys aren't. As much as $7 was bet. 

Octavia (Caulfield Race 5 No. 9) did all the hard work out in front last start on a track where quite frankly you didn't want to be anywhere near lead and the rail. Another in-form mare who finds herself down on the minimum weight. They bet more than $4 early but that has since disappeared as the smarties tumbled into her. Get on quick!

Yulalona (Randwick Race 7 No. 2) just missed in the Grafton Cup behind a horse of whom I have a high opinion in Mr O'Ceirin. Loomed up to win but just died on his run. That should top him off nicely for this and Hugh Bowman needs all the winners he can get to stave off the challenge from Nash Rawiller for the Jockey's Premiership. Backable at $7.50. 

Teronado (Doomben Race 2 No. 2) showed promise in his only campaign to date with two wins by good margins and a second on a bog track in his first three starts. Has since been gelded and has been tuned up for this with a trial win two and a half weeks ago. Looks a good each-way bet at $9.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


The big racing news this week is the long awaited confirmation that in her first trip to the breeding barn Black Caviar will be served this Spring by boom sire Exceed and Excel .

The son of Danehill won seven of his 12 career starts including the Newmarket Handicap as a three-year-old, a race Black Caviar also won.

A similar cross has been tried previously when Exceed & Excel served Black Caviar's grandmother Scandinavia to produce the Group 2 winner Wilander.

Gai Waterhouse has been charged with a second infringement over the condition of More Joyous before a race.

Waterhouse has been fined $2000 for not reporting the mare was lame in the lead up to The Queen of the Turf Stakes in April but has appealed.

She is already appealing a $5000 fine imposed for not reporting treatment to More Joyous before her final race in the All Aged Stakes.

Tommy Berry has made a successful return to Australia with victory in the final race at Hawkesbury last Sunday.

Berry has just returned from a stint in Hong Kong where he bagged 22 winners in just over two months.

The news isn't so good for fellow hoop Glyn Schofield who was outed for six meetings and fined $2000 after weighing in light on Wouldn't It Be Nice at Rosehill last Saturday.

The two-year-old was disqualified from his third placing and NSW stewards have renewed their push for a rule change regarding refunds. Schofield plans to appeal.

Meantime Irish jumps jockey Danny Mullins has had his 14 day ban for commandeering an ambulance reduced to 10 days on appeal.

The remaining four days have been suspended for one year. 

Darley veteran Pinwheel is back in work and trainer Peter Snowden is hopeful he'll be ready to trial in three weeks.

The rising eight-year-old hasn't started since injuring a suspensory ligament during the Orr Stakes in February.

And lastly on a sad note classy racemare Romanee Conti has passed away aged 24 at Pencarrow Stud in New Zealand.

A winner of the 1992 Queen Of The Turf Stakes and the 1993 Hong Kong International Cup she is probably best remembered as the dam of Caulfield / Melbourne Cup winner Ethereal.



LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Allan Denham has had six winners and four placegetters from his last 15 runners stretching back to July 5 including winners at Canterbury, Muswellbrook, Newcastle (twice) and a double at Taree. Best chance tomorrow appears to be Mount Nebo (Rosehill Race 3 No. 5). 2nd. $1.40 place.

Rosehill


Winter Stakes (Listed, 1400m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Putting Mic Mac on top despite the big weight because he showed glimpses of his old self last start and he is a former topliner (he placed in a Stradbroke) plus he did lump a big impost last time out anyway. He's also won two from two at this track and distance.

The obvious danger is the Gai Waterhouse trained Under the Sun. He's been consistent of late and wasn't far away behind Mic Mac last start and meets him a kilo better off."


Locky's Selections

1 Mic Mac (2nd) $2.50 place
9 Under The Sun (1st) $3.40 win / $1.60 place
5 Bold Glance (4th)

Quinella 1-9 $11.20
Exacta 9-1 $26.30
Any 2 1-9 $4.30

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Shafeeq (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 5) goes well second-up (4:3-0-0) and was good first-up when making all the running only to be just run down (half a length) in the shadows of the post in the Ascot Handicap. Races well at Eagle Farm and although he's never won beyond 1100m he's only ever had the two attempts at 1200m for a third and the aforementioned close-up fourth last start. Should be able to get $5.50. 4th.

Relaxed and Happy (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) was scratched last week so I'll stay solid, especially given the track is likely to get back to a dead surface now. Talented on his day and his last two failures were on wet tracks. $3.60 is available. 1st. $3.00 win / $1.40 place.

Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) got us the coin a fortnight ago and I can't see any reason not to butter up here tomorrow. Will be backable at about $4.80 and meets Biadiamond (1.5kg) and Tranquera (2.5kg) better off for having beaten them last start. Is a bit of a specialist at the Flemington 1400m start with two wins from as many attempts. An in-form mare in a race where the rest aren't and it pays to follow the girls when they string a few together. SCRATCHED.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


They seem fairly optimistic.
- King Leonidas of Sparta, Thermopylae, 480 B.C.

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Friday, 19 July 2013

Winter Stakes preview

Some pretty average racing across the board this weekend and expect the same to continue for the next month or so.

As a result I'll be scaling back my wagering in an attempt to save some coin for the upcoming Spring Carnival.

But I'll still be analysing the races each weekend and hopefully will still be able to find some winners.

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Allan Denham has had six winners and four placegetters from his last 15 runners stretching back to July 5 including winners at Canterbury, Muswellbrook, Newcastle (twice) and a double at Taree. Best chance tomorrow appears to be Mount Nebo (Rosehill Race 3 No. 5).

Rosehill





*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 6. Expect improvement though because there has been just 4mm of rain in the last week and none in the last 24 hours and the forecast is for a mostly sunny day tomorrow. ***

Winter Stakes (Listed, 1400m, quality handicap)

* See The World, Shadows in the Sun and Prince of Capers are early scratchings

Current market

Not at all enthusiastic about this race but as it is nominally the feature race of the day I will preview it - albeit under sufferance.

Putting Mic Mac on top despite the big weight because he showed glimpses of his old self last start and he is a former topliner (he placed in a Stradbroke) plus he did lump a big impost last time out anyway. He's also won two from two at this track and distance.

The obvious danger is the Gai Waterhouse trained Under the Sun. He's been consistent of late and wasn't far away behind Mic Mac last start and meets him a kilo better off.

Next best is Bold Glance who has the services of that man Nash Rawiller who could win on a broomstick at the moment.

But for God's sake don't sell the tractor, mortgage the farm and hock Grandma's old jewelry because as I said this is not a race I really want anything to do with.

Locky's Selections

1 Mic Mac
9 Under The Sun
5 Bold Glance

Other bets

Shafeeq (Eagle Farm Race 7 No. 5) goes well second-up (4:3-0-0) and was good first-up when making all the running only to be just run down (half a length) in the shadows of the post in the Ascot Handicap. Races well at Eagle Farm and although he's never won beyond 1100m he's only ever had the two attempts at 1200m for a third and the aforementioned close-up fourth last start. Should be able to get $5.50.

Relaxed and Happy (Rosehill Race 2 No. 1) was scratched last week so I'll stay solid, especially given the track is likely to get back to a dead surface now. Talented on his day and his last two failures were on wet tracks. $3.60 is available.

Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) got us the coin a fortnight ago and I can't see any reason not to butter up here tomorrow. Will be backable at about $4.80 and meets Biadiamond (1.5kg) and Tranquera (2.5kg) better off for having beaten them last start. Is a bit of a specialist at the Flemington 1400m start with two wins from as many attempts. An in-form mare in a race where the rest aren't and it pays to follow the girls when they string a few together.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


The Werribee track has come in for scathing criticism after the midweek meeting had to be abandoned with two races remaining following two horse fatalities and a fall which saw 15-year-old apprentice jockey Boris Thornton taken to hospital.

Leading jockey Glen Boss described the circuit as "without doubt the worst track I have ridden on" and Racing Victoria have confirmed an investigation is underway.

Remember this is the same track that hosts international Cup hopefuls during the Spring Carnival. Not a good look!

Sea Siren has finally broken through for another win.

Coolmore's new acquisition claimed the Listed Belgrave Stakes for trainer Aidan O'Brien in Ireland last weekend, her first victory since she claimed the Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley last Spring.

Damien Oliver returned to trackwork on Monday after completing his eight month disqualification for betting.

Ollie said "it's up to me to prove that I can be accepted into (the) industry again" but also said "he's just trying to look forward, not back".

Meanwhile Blake Shinn has had a disastrous week. He incurred two suspensions amounting to 27 meetings at Warwick Farm last Saturday then copped another 14 meetings at Sandown the following day.

The sentences must be served cumulatively meaning he will be sidelined from July 18 until August 29.

Brisbane trainer Robert Heathcote has finally broken through to notch his 100th winner of the season.

St Andrews won the last at Doomben on Wednesday to end a frustrating run of 30 outs that saw Heathcote winless since July 3.

Lastly Bart Cummings and grandson James have been granted permission by racing officials to commence a training partnership.

It will take effect as of August 1, 60 years after Bart was first granted a licence.

LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Since last Thursday Darren Smith has trained winners at Wyong, Gunnedah, Newcastle, Muswellbrook and Kembla Grange. In fact he's taken 11 horses to the races in the last nine days and has come away with five winners and two seconds. Has four runners at Newcastle tomorrow, a track where in the last 12 months he has trained 22 winners and 24 placegetters from just 73 starters (Win 30% / Place 63%). Was successful with Cara De Luna ($5.10 win / $1.80 place).


Caulfield


Sir John Monash Stakes (Listed, 1100m, w-f-a)

Well the rock-hard fit horse was too good for the fresh opposition. I did manage to find the winner in my top three even if I didn't have him on top:

"Pago Rock is unbeaten at the trip (three from three) and is a last start winner."

Locky's Selections

10 Mrs Onassis (6th)
9 Happy Galaxy (8th)
6 Pago Rock (1st) $8.90 win / $2.50 place

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Relaxed and Happy (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 13) can mix his form but is talented enough on his day. His two failures this time in have been on wet tracks so he'll appreciate being back on what I'm predicting will be firmer ground by the time this race rolls around. Hard to go past the Chris Waller/Nash Rawiller combination too. SCRATCHED.

Southern Girl (Newcastle Race 5 No. 4). Aforementioned form trainer Darren Smith and hoop Grant Buckley are a formidable combo, having joined forces 23 times in the last 12 months for eight winners and eight placegetters. (Win 34.8% / Place 69.6%). 8th.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


Not out.
- Aleem Dar, Trent Bridge, 13 July 2013

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Thursday, 11 July 2013

Sir John Monash Stakes preview

Just the three Listed races this weekend with the Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield, the Beaufine Stakes (1000m) at Belmont and the Tattersall's Mile (1600m) at Doomben.

The good news is the first Group 1 of next season gets closer with every passing day!

Just seven weeks and counting until the Memsie Stakes at Caulfield on August 31...

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Since last Thursday Darren Smith has trained winners at Wyong, Gunnedah, Newcastle, Muswellbrook and Kembla Grange. In fact he's taken 11 horses to the races in the last nine days and has come away with five winners and two seconds. Has four runners at Newcastle tomorrow, a track where in the last 12 months he has trained 22 winners and 24 placegetters from just 73 starters (Win 30% / Place 63%).


Caulfield





*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. There has been 14mm of rain in the last week but there has been none in the last 24 hours. The forecast is for a cloudy day with a late afternoon shower. ***

Sir John Monash Stakes (Listed, 1100m, w-f-a)

* Atomic Force is an early scratching

Current market

The last two times Mrs Onassis has been first-up she has contested 1100m races and won. The most recent of those was her victory in the Oakleigh Plate back in February (below). In fact seven of her eight career wins have been at this distance and she's unbeaten here at Caulfield from the 1100m start. Blinkers go back on so that's a good sign Gerald Ryan is fair dinkum. That'll do me.

Happy Galaxy is the obvious danger. He has shown himself to be of above average ability, winning five of his eight career starts including his last four on the trot. That run culminated with victories in the Listed Zeditave Stakes and Group 3 Expressway Stakes early in the year. Isn't suited by the w-f-a conditions though, having to concede 1.5kg to a Group 1 winner.

Skytrain is hard to have on recent efforts and this looks a tad short as his best form has been at 1200m. The same can be said of Second Effort although there is early money to suggest he can run a bit of a race ($16 into $9) and he will warrant careful scrutiny if the forecast rain comes earlier than expected because he's had 11 starts on slow or heavy going for nine wins. But his Good/Dead track form is woeful. (17:1-3-3)

Pago Rock is unbeaten at the trip (three from three) and is a last start winner although Zamorar wasn't far behind him that day and does meet him 2.5kg better off at the weights.

Elite Elle faces a stiff class rise and Zedi Knight hasn't won for a while. Stanzout is older than God and Big Buddie couldn't win even if he started running now.

Locky's Selections

10 Mrs Onassis
9 Happy Galaxy
6 Pago Rock


Other bets

Relaxed and Happy (Warwick Farm Race 8 No. 13) can mix his form but is talented enough on his day. His two failures this time in have been on wet tracks so he'll appreciate being back on what I'm predicting will be firmer ground by the time this race rolls around. Hard to go past the Chris Waller/Nash Rawiller combination too.

Southern Girl (Newcastle Race 5 No. 4). Aforementioned form trainer Darren Smith and hoop Grant Buckley are a formidable combo, having joined forces 23 times in the last 12 months for eight winners and eight placegetters. (Win 34.8% / Place 69.6%).

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Since I last put pen to paper trainer Chris Waller has finally broken the record for the most metropolitan winners in a single season. 

As a friend of mine texted last Saturday afternoon "Thank God we can stop hearing about that 'When will Waller break the record crap' and move on". Amen brother.

It wasn't such a good week for leading Melbourne trainer Wayne Hawkes who was allegedly assaulted by a man armed with a monkey wrench.

Racing Victoria Stewards and Victoria Police are investigating the incident that occurred at Flemington on Wednesday morning.

Jockey Glen Boss returns to riding at Caulfield tomorrow following a knee operation and a one-month suspension.

He got through a solid hit-out on the training track on Tuesday and said that although the knee is a bit stiff it's improving every day and that by tomorrow it'll be the best it's been in years.

Meantime comeback jockey Chris Munce enjoyed a good week, bagging four winners at Eagle Farm on Wednesday.

The Clarence River Jockey Club enjoyed yet another successful two day Grafton carnival. Youthful Jack ($51) caused a boilover in the Ramornie Handicap on Wednesday and Mr O'Ceirin ($5) held on for a gutsy win in the Grafton Cup yesterday (below, left of picture).



Don't forget the July Cup meeting from Newmarket is on tomorrow night our time - trainer Danny O'Brien and Shamexpress will be flying the Aussie flag.

Lastly on a light note Irish jumps jockey Danny Mullins has appealed after stewards rubbed him out for 14 meetings for driving an unattended ambulance back to the weighing room.

Mullins mount had pulled up and he felt assistance was slow in coming so he jumped into the vehicle to make sure he would get back in time to weigh out for the following race.

Not sure if he turned the siren on or not.


LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?


Nash Rawiller had six rides at Warwick Farm on Wednesday for three winners, two seconds and a third. Backed that up with a double at Wyong yesterday from just three rides. Also rode a winner at Rosehill on Monday. Didn't ride last weekend due to the wash-out but the previous Saturday had two winners from two rides at Eagle Farm with Red Tracer (Tatt's Tiara) and Howmuchdoyouloveme (Healy Stakes). Has 13 wins from just 40 rides in the last three weeks at a strike rate of 32.5% or just a tick under one win every three rides. Has quite a few winning chances at Rosehill tomorrow. Had six rides for three winners and two placegetters including Oompa Loompa ($2.40), Fulgur ($4.60) and Eigelstein ($2.30).

Eagle Farm


Queensland Cup (Listed, 3200m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Turner Bayou is the interesting runner. He's a lightly raced Zabeel gelding who handles wet tracks and shows staying promise. He's also in form which a lot of these aren't and trainer Paddy Payne has tasted success in this race before with Kerdem in 2008. He won't know himself with the 54kg either after lumping big weights in his three most recent outings.

Best roughie for mine is Fifth Column. An improving three-year-old on the way up who has shown staying potential and is in winning form. Has good wet track credentials and will be about $35."


Locky's Selections

6 Turner Bayou (1st) $3.30 win / $1.50 place
1 Ibicenco (5th)
12 Fifth Column (2nd) $6.30 place

Exacta 6-12 $69.90
Quinella 6-12 $61.80
Any 2  6-12  $18.50


Ascot Handicap (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"Doubtfilly can improve back to the 1200m. Apart from an eye-catching third at Ipswich her recent runs have been poor but I don't think she runs a strong 1400m. Go back to four runs ago where she beat Someday at this track and distance on a heavy track. Jockey is in super form too.

Griffon is talented on his day but his last outing was diabolical. If he bounces back to form he can figure in the finish and his wet track credentials are better than others."


Locky's Selections

2 Delago Bolt (9th)
12 Doubtfilly (1st) $5.20 win / $2.10 place
3 Griffon (2nd) $2.50 place

Exacta 12-3 $35.10
Quinella 12-3 $24.10
Any 2  12-3 $10.20

Other bets

World Wide (Rosehill Race 3 No. 3) has won five from five on heavy ground and has won twice at the distance. Is in good form too having won his last two including a one and a half length win over Destiny's Kiss who subsequently won his next two starts. Should be able to get $4.60. 4th.

Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) is another in fine form, coming off back-to-back wins. Won at this track and distance last start fairly impressively and despite a stiff weight rise can make it three in a row tomorrow at $3.60. 1st. $5.30 win / $2.00 place.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


Say no to drugs.
- Jobe Watson, Essendon, 2012



Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!

Friday, 5 July 2013

Queensland Cup preview

The quality of racing will drop off over the next month and a half with most of the good horses in the paddock awaiting Spring Carnival campaigns.

Nonetheless there are still winners to be found and the racing should still be competitive with Listed racing all down the eastern seaboard and in WA.

Eagle Farm is the venue for the stayers in the Queensland Cup (3200m) plus the Ascot Handicap (1200m) for the sprinters. In NSW we venture to Rosehill for the Civic Stakes (1350m) and across the Nullabor we have the Belmont Oaks (2000m).

Meanwhile in Victoria Flemington hosts three black type races in the Winter Championship Series Final (1600m), the All Victorian Sprint Series Final (1200m) and the Taj Rossi Series Final (1600m).

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Nash Rawiller had six rides at Warwick Farm on Wednesday for three winners, two seconds and a third. Backed that up with a double at Wyong yesterday from just three rides. Also rode a winner at Rosehill on Monday. Didn't ride last weekend due to the wash-out but the previous Saturday had two winners from two rides at Eagle Farm with Red Tracer (Tatt's Tiara) and Howmuchdoyouloveme (Healy Stakes). Has 13 wins from just 40 rides in the last three weeks at a strike rate of 32.5% or just a tick under one win every three rides. Has quite a few winning chances at Rosehill tomorrow.

Eagle Farm




*** As of 4pm the track was rated a Slow 7. There has been 34mm of rain in the last week but there has been none in the last 24 hours. The forecast is for a fine, sunny day tomorrow. ***

Queensland Cup (Listed, 3200m, quality handicap)

* Peal Of Bells is an early scratching

Current market

A field of 12 here but eight of them are likely to start at $26 or more so this race has a pretty long tail.

Ibicenco will start favourite but it's a big ask to carry 59kg over two miles on a wet track. It would be the biggest weight lumped to victory in this race since Barallan carried the metric equivalent of 62kg (9st 11lb) in 1909. Tinseltown (58kg) in 2011 is the only horse to have won with more than 55.5kg in the last 20 years. I think $2.80 is poison but he should run into a place on class alone. Has won at the trip so that's a big plus.

Turner Bayou is the interesting runner. He's a lightly raced Zabeel gelding who handles wet tracks and shows staying promise. He's also in form which a lot of these aren't and trainer Paddy Payne has tasted success in this race before with Kerdem in 2008. He won't know himself with the 54kg either after lumping big weights in his three most recent outings.

Best roughie for mine is Fifth Column. An improving three-year-old on the way up who has shown staying potential and is in winning form. Has good wet track credentials and will be about $35.

Verdant and Muirfield haven't fired a shot since coming to Queensland.

Locky's Selections

6 Turner Bayou
1 Ibicenco
12 Fifth Column

Ascot Handicap (Listed, 1200m, quality handicap)

* War Ends and Emotional Circus are early scratchings

Current market

Delago Bolt is racing in fine form and despite meeting some others here worse at the weights (Funtantes, Benny's Buttons, Liesele) I think he's a solid each-way bet at $6.50. He was only a length behind Howmuchdoyouloveme and River Lad over this same course and distance last start and either one of those two would start a short priced favourite here. Has a win and three placings from four starts at the track.

Doubtfilly can improve back to the 1200m. Apart from an eye-catching third at Ipswich her recent runs have been poor but I don't think she runs a strong 1400m. Go back to four runs ago where she beat Someday at this track and distance on a heavy track. Jockey is in super form too.

Griffon is talented on his day but his last outing was diabolical. If he bounces back to form he can figure in the finish and his wet track credentials are better than others like Benny's Buttons and Listen Son. 

Locky's Selections

2 Delago Bolt
12 Doubtfilly
3 Griffon

Other bets

World Wide (Rosehill Race 3 No. 3) has won five from five on heavy ground and has won twice at the distance. Is in good form too having won his last two including a one and a half length win over Destiny's Kiss who subsequently won his next two starts. Should be able to get $4.60.

Koe (Flemington Race 8 No. 2) is another in fine form, coming off back-to-back wins. Won at this track and distance last start fairly impressively and despite a stiff weight rise can make it three in a row tomorrow at $3.60

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Jockey Jay Ford was suspended for careless riding at the Warwick farm meeting midweek and will begin a five meeting ban starting next Thursday that will see him out of action until July 21.

The very same day comeback hoop Bob El-Issa earned a seven meeting stretch for careless riding in the opening race at Doomben. The suspension starts after tomorrow's Eagle Farm meeting and he is free to resume riding on July 18.

Meantime experienced jock Glenn Lynch has been banned from riding at TAB meetings for six months after incurring 11 careless riding suspensions in the last 18 months.

The news is better for the disqualified Damien Oliver however, he's been cleared to return to trackwork on July 13 when his eight month ban ends.

Lastly trainer Chris Waller needs just one winner at tomorrow's Rosehill meeting to break the record for the most metropolitan victories in a single season.

The current record of 156 is held jointly by the great Tommy Smith and his daughter Gai Waterhouse.

LOOKING BACK


Who's hot?

Damian Browne is the man to follow at the Sunshine Coast. His last 16 rides at the track (since May 19) have resulted in eight winners and four placegetters (Win 50% / Place 75%) including a winning treble on May 31 and doubles on May 19 and May 26. Has ridden 47 winners at the track in the last 12 months at a strike rate of almost one winner every three rides. No other jockey has ridden more than 30. Won the Caloundra Cup aboard Zennista  $6.60 win / $2.20 place.

Sunshine Coast


Caloundra Cup (Listed, 2400m, quality handicap)

Last week I wrote:

"I can't argue with the market here - I think Zennista and Shenzou Steeds will fight it out and I'm leaning to the former. Zennista's last two runs have been good enough to win a race like this. She followed a close up fourth behind Solzhenitsyn in the unsuitably short Lord Mayors Cup before solid thirds in the Premiers and Brisbane Cups. Has looked to have Shenzou Steed's measure the last two times they met. That man Browne takes the ride."

Locky's Selections

4 Zennista (1st) $6.60 win / $2.20 place
5 Shenzou Steeds (4th)
9 Kaypers (7th)


Glasshouse Handicap (Listed, 1400m, quality handicap)

My original tip River Lad was scratched but otherwise I wasn't too far off the mark:

"Best of the rest is Belltone who went too bad to be true in the Stradbroke. Can bounce back. Someday will likely start favourite and he is another one I tipped last week when he was the victim of a curious ride. Great record at the distance but has never won on slow or heavy although has been placed four times out of four."

Locky's Selections

2 River Lad (SCR)
1 Belltone (3rd) $3.70 place
13 Someday (1st) $3.60 win / $2.20 place


Other bets

Disciple (Rosehill Race 9 No. 12) is in great form and it took an in-form galloper to run him down last start. Has a great record at the track and distance and has a jockey and trainer who are in good touch. $6 looks generous. MEETING ABANDONED.

QUOTE OF THE DAY


Nice day for a walk.
- Stephen King, Lovell (Maine), 19 June 1999

Don't forget to add a comment, vote in the poll or sign up for e-mail notifications at the top of the page if you've enjoyed what you've read!