Friday, 31 May 2013

Queensland Oaks preview

Every race bar one at Eagle Farm tomorrow is a Stakes race with the marquee event of course the Queensland Oaks for the three-year-old fillies.

Brisbane Cup hopefuls will lock horns in the Eagle Farm Cup (formerly the O'Shea Stakes) whilst a good bunch of three-year-olds go around in the Queensland Guineas, and Stradbroke hopefuls get one last throw at the stumps in the QTC Cup.

It's a great days racing and sets the scene for next weekend's big Super Saturday meeting featuring the Group 1 treble of the Stradbroke Handicap, Queensland Derby and the J.J. Atkins Stakes.


The Sandown Lakeside meeting sees the running of the Australian Hurdle and the Australian Steeple plus a $100,000 sprint race and the Sydney meeting at Rosehill has been marred by inclement weather but I still think I can find a couple of winners there too.


LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?


Brad Rawiller is on fire at the moment with 11 winners in the last three weeks including five in the last six days. In fact he hasn't missed at a meeting he's ridden at this week with a winner at Cranbourne (Sunday), Geelong (Tuesday), Bendigo (Wednesday) and a double at Sale (Thursday). His only ride tomorrow is Manighar (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 1).


Damian Browne is also firing with five winners and five placings from just 12 rides since last Saturday at Doomben. He rode a double at the Sunshine Coast last Sunday and backed that up with a treble there today. He has three good rides tomorrow in Quintessential (Eagle Farm Race 3 No. 6) , Fire Up Fifi (Eagle Farm Race 4 No. 4) and Complicate (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 9).

Eagle Farm



*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Slow 7. The track has had 29mm of rain in the last week, almost all of it (27mm) on Thursday. The forecast is for mostly fine, partly cloudy weather with a chance of a shower. ***


Queensland Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, three-year-old fillies set weights)


Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Gondokoro.

Seven of the last eight winners have come via The Roses but only one of them completed the double. Six of the last eight winners paid $9 or less. 11 of the last 14 winners drew a single figure barrier.


I'm banking on this turning into a real staying test what with the affected track and the fact it will be run late in the day. So I'm looking for a tough, seasoned galloper who can handle the wet and will sit handy as I think by this time of the afternoon it will be difficult to make ground from back in the field if the track deteriorates.


Dear Demi (22 starts) is an iron horse. This is the third Oaks she will have contested this season. Proven at the trip and has had two goes on the heavy for a win and a second placing in the ATC Oaks.  Would have liked to see her do a little more against the boys last weekend although the blinkers do go back on tomorrow so she can be closer in the run. Another who should be handier this start is Soapy Star (16 starts) who was forced to go back from a wide draw in The Roses. Finished off well along the rail and should have been closer on the line but got checked off heels late. Two wins and a third from three attempts on heavy ground. Her stablemate Express Power can be forgiven her last start failure because she pulled up lame. Her win prior to that at the Gold Coast was dominant. 

If you give those two a chance then Vaquera, Magic In Motion and Just As Cosmic must be considered because they beat them home last time out. The latter two have horror draws though. Vaquera however has drawn well, races on the speed and has won on slow. Gondokoro was the one I liked on top early in the week but the wet track and the fact she'll probably get well back makes it hard to step into $4. Miss Zenella (5 starts) and Porcellanus (2 starts) look like good horses in the making but I don't think they are seasoned enough for what could be a slogging mile and a half through poor conditions.

Locky's Selections

3 Soapy Star
1 Dear Demi
8 Vaquera

Queensland Guineas (Group 2, 1400m, 3-y-o set weights)

* Eximius, Al Aneed, Saturn Rock and Holy Toledo are early scratchings


I think the Fred Best Classic showed us that there isn't much between this lot and that the winner of this event will probably be the horse that gets the best run and handles the conditions. Platinum Kingdom looks to be that horse. Should get the gun run just behind the speed from barrier three. Showed he can handle bog conditions when he won his first start in this country at Randwick on April 20 but showed he can do it on the dry too when he won at Doomben last start. I tipped him on top that day at $15 and can't see any reason not to take the $6.50 tomorrow. Boban and Academus weren't far away in that race and on a dry track I had them right in the mix but a really heavy track would be a concern. Won't worry Sizzling though because he swims through it and will really appreciate getting back to his home track at Eagle Farm. Blinkers go on too. Other good runs from the Fred Best Classic were Lilliburlero and Complicate who are both drawn to get good runs.


Locky's Selections

6 Platinum Kingdom

1 Sizzling
19 Lilliburlero


Eagle Farm Cup (Group 2, 2200m, w-f-a)


Quintessential is going to encounter almost identical conditions to this very same day last year when she won the Queensland Oaks on a Heavy 10. Just like she did a fortnight ago too for that matter in the Chairmans Handicap. I've already got $11 so that'll do me. Lights of Heaven has won two from two at Eagle Farm and has two wins and a second from three attempts on affected ground. Manighar looked the winner in the Doomben Cup but just knocked up the last little bit. He'll strip fitter for that but a really heavy track is a worry. Moriarty has been left out for the same reason although I had him in my top three on a dry track. The other two should be in Melbourne going over the steeples at Sandown.

Locky's Selections

6 Quintessential
5 Lights Of Heaven
1 Manighar

QTC Cup (Group 2, 1300m, quality handicap)

* Mic Mac is an early scratching


Not a race I'm overly keen on as a betting proposition but a good race if you can find the winner because you'll probably get a decent price. A fairly even lot and as I've said before a lot will come down to who gets the best run in transit and who handles the ground because by the time this race rolls around this track could be bottomless. So I'm going to go wide here and perhaps box three roughies in an Any 2 just to keep me entertained.

Celtic Dancer ($15) won this race last year and is three from four at 1300m and on heavy going. Border Rebel ($15) is rock hard fit and will be up on the speed and is four from four on heavy tracks. Griffon ($8.50) does like to get back but hopefully he can be closer tomorrow from a good barrier. He'll be storming home and his wet track form is sound (4:2-0-2).

Locky's Selections

8 Border Rebel
12 Griffon
13 Celtic Dancer

Other bets

Detours (Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 4) is going to start around $6 and I can just see her getting the best run here from barrier 2. Well in with just 2kg over the minmum, she handles wet tracks and Darley do make a habit of picking off these Listed races for the girls to boost the value of their broodmares.

Said Com (Rosehill Race 4 No. 3) was the eye-catcher at Scone in the Luskin Star. He came from near last to finish fifth beaten two and a half lengths in a slowly run affair where Fontelina walked in front then sprinted home the final 600m in 33.72. Will get through the slow conditions OK and you should be able to get $7.50.

Index Linked (Rosehill Race 8 No. 14) looks the short way home in The Get Out Stakes much like Strawberry Boy last week. He won't be any flash price ($2.50) but he should just win. The penny seems to have finally dropped for the Chris Waller trained import and he's strung together three victories on end at 1500m. The last of those was a four length demolition job at this track and I see no reason why he can't make it four in a row tomorrow.

NEWS OF THE WEEK


Tim Clark, Glen Boss and Ric McMahon all copped suspensions last weekend. Clark and McMahon will ride tomorrow but will miss the Stradbroke meeting unless they appeal successfully. Boss won't ride tomorrow but will be back next weekend for Super Saturday at Eagle Farm.


It's better news for jockey Tommy Berry. He's certainly making the most of his short stint in Hong Kong, bagging another feature race winner last Sunday aboard Charles The Great in the Sha Tin Vase.

But jockey Chris Munce has the best news of all - he is officially cancer free. The popular hoop made the announcement earlier this week via Twitter, saying his specialist has revealed his final set of scans was clear. Munce was diagnosed with throat cancer late last year and underwent seven weeks of radiation treatment and chemotherapy.

Shamexpress showed he's on track for his tilt at Royal Ascot with a jump-out win at Flemington today. The Newmarket winner is being aimed at The Kings Stand Stakes on June 18. Meanwhile Sea Siren is a confirmed starter in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes after her second behind Epaulette in the Doomben 10,000 last weekend.

And the Sigo-gaite saga rolls on with trainer Gai waterhouse lodging an appeal against her $5000 fine for failing to inform stewards of the treatment and condition of More Joyous prior to her failure in the All Aged Stakes. No date has been set for the hearing.

LOOKING BACK



Doomben


Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1350m, w-f-a)

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Your Song. 6th.

I think most people's speed maps (mine included) went out the window before they'd gone five strides when Your Song flew the gates and decided to eyeball Buffering in front. They were running sub 11.5 second sectionals in front for the first half mile so it was no wonder noted speedsters like Rain Affair and Steps In Time couldn't keep up. It was also no wonder that the race was won by a swooper as I predicted. I just leaned the wrong way and picked the wrong three-year-old on top. Buffering's effort to hang on for third was enormous under the circumstances. Your Song could have been the victim of a hard run first-up and it wouldn't surprise if he bounced back in the Stradbroke with just 54kg.

Locky's Selections

15 Better Than Ready (5th)
10 Epaulette (1st) $6.10 win / $2.30 place
2 Buffering (3rd) $2.50 place

Any 2 2-10 $7.50

Sires Produce Stakes (Group 2, 1350m, 2-y-o set weights)

A few runs here that were better than they looked because it was a funny race. The sectional for the final 600m was faster than that of the Doomben 10,000 yet the overall time was nearly two seconds slower. So they walked then sprinted. It forced quite a few jockeys to get on their bike earlier than they would have liked and they ended up camped deep. No wonder that horses like Hooked and The Voice knocked up the last little bit. Vilanova's run was huge all things considered, whereas the stablemate Zoustar got all the favours camped behind the leaders and saving ground. Great ride by The Pumper. Paximadia and Global Dream look like they will appreciate a trip across the road to the bigger track at Eagle Farm.

Locky's Selections

7 Hooked (5th)
12 Missy Longstocking (9th)

14 Bound For Earth (3rd) $3.30 place


Grand Prix Stakes (Group 3, 2200m, 3-y-o set weights)

Hawkspur looked strong through the line, the placegetters were OK and Dear Demi only fair. Hard to see them turning the tables in the Derby next Saturday.

Locky's Selections

2 Hawkspur (1st) $4.20 win / $1.80 place
14 Dear Demi (6th)
4 Usainity (4th)

Glenlogan Park Stakes (Group 3, 1350m, fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

Arinosa got too far back in a slowly run race. Expect improvement.

Last week I wrote:

Sookie ($17) was backed into favourtism last start when resuming before disappointing on that bottomless Eagle Farm track. The money was there to say she was ready to do something so it may pay to forgive that failure. $16.00 win /  $3.30 place

Locky's Selections

4 Arinosa (4th)
6 Emmalene (12th)
8 Risk Aversion (14th)

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Peron (Doomben Race 3 No. 13) was good to us last start and should win again. Overcame a lot of difficulties at the Gold Coast but like good horses do she found a way to win. Well drawn, well weighted and unbeaten up to 1400m. Could be a horse of the future with four wins and a third from five starts including a prior victory over this course and distance She's found her place in the market though ($2.50) so she may be one to play around with in a few multis. 1st. $2.80 / $1.60 place.

Midsummer Sun (Doomben Race 9 No. 12) is another of these imported horses bought by Australian interests with a view to the Cups in the Spring. If they are setting their sights that high he'd want to be taking care of this lot from down on the minimum and a good gate. Two starts for two wins in this country including a last start victory over another import in the Chris Waller trained Fulgur who has since won. Should be backable at around $4. 13th.


Serene Star (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) is much better than this lot and with the three kilo claim isn't badly in at just three kilos over the minimum against her own sex. Vibrant Rouge is given a chance in the race which should ensure we can still get on at about $3.50. Serene Star gave Vibrant Rouge eight kilos first-up and beat her home, then gave her four and a half kilos second-up and beat her home again. Tomorrow she only has to give her three. Should probably be unbeaten this time after in after flashing home late last start after Elite Elle got away with murder in front (First 600m 37.23) before sprinting home. 3rd. $1.90 place.


Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 9 No. 5) is another who will come up at a skinny quote but should just win. Unbeaten up to a mile and unbeaten second-up. First-up run was great when sat on a hot speed and still managed to kick and defy all the challengers. The short way home in The Get Out Stakes. 1st. $1.70 win / $1.30 place.


QUOTE OF THE DAY


Last one in is a rotten egg!
- Harold Holt, Cheviot Beach (Portsea, Victoria), 17 December 1967

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Friday, 24 May 2013

Doomben 10,000 preview

The focus is firmly on Brisbane this weekend with the Winter Carnival now in full flight and the feature event is the time-honoured Doomben 10,000. The honour roll for this race includes such greats as Bernborough, Baguette, Manikato, Chief De Beers (twice), Falvelon (twice), Bel Esprit and in recent years Takeover Target and Apache Cat (twice).

There is a good support program too with the G2 Sires Produce (run at Doomben instead of Eagle Farm now) and three Group 3 races plus a Listed race for the sprinters who've dodged the main event.

Randwick looks to be the pick of the remaining meetings with the Listed McKell Cup the highlight although the small field is disappointing and the track is likely to be severely rain affected.

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

Since last Saturday Damian Browne has bagged three winners and a placegettter from just seven rides including a double at the Sunshine Coast last Sunday. In the last three weeks he's ridden 12 winners at 31.6% or almost one winner every three rides. He's also the leading jockey at Doomben strike rate wise over the last twelve months. Only three riders have ridden more winners at the track during that time and they have had many more rides.

Training wise it's a no-brainer with Chris Waller winning everywhere up and down the eastern seaboard. He's trained 18 winners in the last 21 days at a strike rate of a tick over one in five (20.5%).

Doomben



*** As of 4pm today the track was rated a Dead 5. The forecast is for a fine, partly cloudy day with gusty winds and the chance of a brief shower. ***




Doomben 10,000 (Group 1, 1350m, w-f-a)



Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Your Song.

The last six winners have all paid $5.50 or less. All of them have started favourite, equal favourite or second favourite. All of them had placed at their last start.

Looks to be a lot of speed here on paper with Rain Affair and Steps In Time likely to lead them a merry dance from their good barriers while Buffering has the length of the back straight to get across and tag them. Your Song probably follows Buffering across. Rangirangdoo probably has to press on too from his wide alley. I think Sea Siren will press forward and be in the front half of the field. It sets it up for the three-year-olds Epaulette and Better Than Ready to get the gun runs.

Your Song annihilated them last start and deserves to be favourite but he has to reproduce what he did on a wet track at Eagle Farm over 1200m on a dry track at Doomben over 1350m so I'm happy to take him on at $3.20 but I still think he can win. Looking behind him that day Better Than Ready was last on settling but still managed to get past all but Your Song and Rain Affair on a track where they just weren't making ground. He can be closer tomorrow from the inside draw. Buffering blew the start, never got into a rhythm and didn't handle the track but he still worked home OK as far as I was concerned. Forgive. Epaulette split Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter two runs back before disappointing in the All Aged but can bounce back after a little freshen up. Had a trial on May 14 just to keep him ticking over. Rangirangdoo the best roughie. I think Rain Affair and Steps In Time will bring each other undone. Sea Siren would need to lift.

Locky's Selections


15 Better Than Ready
10 Epaulette
2 Buffering


Sires Produce Stakes (Group 2, 1350m, 2-y-o set weights)


* Londehero is an early scratching


I think the Champagne Classic form may just prove stronger than that of the Ken Russell Memorial at the Gold Coast a week earlier. Seeing the Classic was run in atrocious conditions I'm looking for the horses that ran well there and can improve. This is another race where there looks to be genuine speed so again I'm also looking for horses who are drawn in and can run on but won't get too far back. I think barriers will be crucial here because there may not be a lot between these. How much do we read into the fact that Hugh Bowman rode stablemates Vilanova and Zoustar at their last starts and stays solid with the former? That's how I've attacked this tricky race.

Vo Heart, The Voice and Le Val will do it tough from their wide gates. Zoustar probably has to push forward from his gate whereas Vilanova will probably look for a trail. The ones drawn to get glorious passages are Missy Longstocking, Hooked and Bound For Earth. I tipped Hooked last time out and I'll give him another chance because he was dropping from 1350m back to 1200m and he got too far back on that heavy track (last to the turn) but hit the line as well as anything. Has the advantage of a win here at Doomben over the trip two starts back and prior to that he smacked Le Val on debut who subsequently won. Bound For Earth was another who made good ground late in the same race and trainer John O'Shea is adamant she should have been scratched after injuring herself going into the barrier. Her run under the circumstances was enormous because she came back to scale looking like she'd gone the distance with Mike Tyson. Missy Longstocking looked average when scraping home last start when a narrow winner as an odds-on favourite but she did sit four wide without cover the entire trip and will get a much better run tomorrow with the inside draw. Vilanova the best of Waller's pair for your First Fours.

Locky's Selections


7 Hooked
12 Missy Longstocking
14 Bound For Earth


Grand Prix Stakes (Group 3, 2200m, 3-y-o set weights)

* Rowie, Excellent Al, Tonopah, Ali Vital and Paraggi are early scratchings


Hard race because we have to line up the Kiwis against the traditional lead up which is the Rough Habit Plate. That race was run on a bog track so the form out of it may be dubious.

Hawkspur won the race by cutting the corner but even so he won with authority and looks like the extra 200m will be no concern. From barrier three he'll get a cosy run in transit again. He has a sense of timing about him too. Last prep he took three runs to get fit before stringing together three successive victories. Who is to say he can't do that again because the stable is flying. Dear Demi is on the quick back-up following her win last weekend in The Roses and that has proved successful in the past. She won the VRC Oaks on a five-day back up and finished second to Pierro in the Champagne Stakes on a seven day back-up. She has a horror draw though but then again she did last week too. The Kiwis have a strong hand with the Murray Baker duo Usainity and Ambitious Champion plus the Mike Moroney trained Ryhthm To Spare. All have ability but I'll opt for Usainity because he looks to have been contesting better quality races but Ambitious Champion looks a good horse in the making if he learns how to race. His last start win had to be seen to be believed.

Locky's Selections

2 Hawkspur
14 Dear Demi
4 Usainity


Glenlogan Park Stakes (Group 3, 1350m, fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

* More Strawberries is an early scratching


Arinosa will be very short here and rightly so because she is without a doubt the most improved horse in the country. The only knock is the inside draw because in her previous wins she has sat wide with cover before unleashing down the middle of the straight. The danger is she could get cluttered up in traffic here. I'll tip her on top because I think she's just better than this lot but there's no way I'm wading into even money. Exotics may be the way to go here with some roughies boxed into the favourite as banker.

Emmalene ($26) has shown ability in the past and will relish a drop back in class from the BTC Cup and a return to a firm track and fillies and mares grade. Sookie ($17) was backed into favourtism last start when resuming before disappointing on that bottomless Eagle Farm track. The money was there to say she was ready to do something so it may pay to forgive that failure. Risk Aversion ($11) has a horror draw but she wasn't far away in a couple of quality fillies and mares races in Sydney during the carnival. 

Locky's Selections

4 Arinosa
6 Emmalene
8 Risk Aversion

Other bets

Peron (Doomben Race 3 No. 13) was good to us last start and should win again. Overcame a lot of difficulties at the Gold Coast but like good horses do she found a way to win. Well drawn, well weighted and unbeaten up to 1400m. Could be a horse of the future with four wins and a third from five starts including a prior victory over this course and distance She's found her place in the market though ($2.50) so she may be one to play around with in a few multis.

Midsummer Sun (Doomben Race 9 No. 12) is another of these imported horses bought by Australian interests with a view to the Cups in the Spring. If they are setting their sights that high he'd want to be taking care of this lot from down on the minimum and a good gate. Two starts for two wins in this country including a last start victory over another import in the Chris Waller trained Fulgur who has since won. Should be backable at around $4.

Serene Star (Caulfield Race 7 No. 1) is much better than this lot and with the three kilo claim isn't badly in at just three kilos over the minimum against her own sex. Vibrant Rouge is given a chance in the race which should ensure we can still get on at about $3.50. Serene Star gave Vibrant Rouge eight kilos first-up and beat her home, then gave her four and a half kilos second-up and beat her home again. Tomorrow she only has to give her three. Should probably be unbeaten this time after in after flashing home late last start after Elite Elle got away with murder in front (First 600m 37.23) before sprinting home.

Strawberry Boy (Caulfield Race 9 No. 5) is another who will come up at a skinny quote but should just win. Unbeaten up to a mile and unbeaten second-up. First-up run was great when sat on a hot speed and still managed to kick and defy all the challengers. The short way home in The Get Out Stakes.


NEWS OF THE WEEK


Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter finished a gallant second in the Group 1 KrisFlyer Sprint at Singapore last Sunday.

The Jason Warren trained speedster missed the kick and copped a bump on the corner before flashing home behind Hong Kong galloper Lucky Nine, who was piloted by Melbourne Cup winning rider Brett Prebble.

Ortensia has run her last race and will head to the breeding barn after her disappointing performance last weekend at Scone in the race named in her honour.

She retires with more than $2.4 million in prizemoney from 13 career wins which included Group 1 successes in Australia, Dubai, and England. 

Secret Admirer has also been retired after her third in the Doomben Cup and Reliable Man could join her in retirement if a stud deal can be found, otherwise he may race on.


Racing Victoria has issued two new charges against jockey Danny Nikolic relating to his inquiry involving chief steward Terry Bailey.

It's alleged the hoop acted improperly towards RV stewards panel member Wade Hadley at the VCAT hearing in November where Nikolic was appealing the severity of his two-year disqualification for threatening Bailey at Seymour races last September.

No date has been set for the latest hearing.

The ATC has decided to push the Spring Champion Stakes back one week and it will now be run as a stand-alone Group 1 on October 12, a week after the Epsom Handicap meeting which has traditionally closed the Sydney Spring Carnival.

The move is designed to give three-year-olds a fortnightly progression from the Golden Rose to the Spring Champion via either the Gloaming Stakes or the Stan Fox, but it does mean the race will now clash with the Caulfield Guineas 

Black and Bent has claimed a record tenth successive jumps victory with a triumphant return at Sandown mid-week after more than a year on the sidelines.

His streak began in April 2010 but has been interrupted by two tendon injuries.

And Glen Boss has set a new record for prizemoney earned by a jockey in Victoria in a single season.

His fourth placing in the last race at Ballarat on Thursday took the total amount of prizemoney earned by his rides this season to $9,216,360, eclipsing Damian Oliver's previous record of $9,215,040.

LOOKING BACK




Doomben




Doomben Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)


Beaten Up may just win the Brisbane Cup on that. Foreteller gave man of the moment Chris Waller the quinella. Lamasery has been retired. Lights Of Heaven appeared to have every possible hope.


Locky's Selections



5 Lamasery (9th)
4 Foreteller (2nd) $1.90 place
9 Lights Of Heaven (5th)


The Roses (Group 3, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)


The two fillies with the ATC Oaks form ran one-two. Gondokoro is the one I want to follow in the Oaks next weekend because I get the feeling she will be better on the bigger track across the road at Eagle Farm and she was unlucky after copping early trouble and just missing.

Locky's Selections


4 Express Power (7th)
1 Dear Demi (1st) $3.70 win / $1.70 place
5 Gondokoro (2nd) $3.60 place

Any 2 1-5 $8.10

Quinella $26.70

Fred Best Classic (Group 3, 1350m, 3-y-o set weights)

Last week I wrote :

Pretty keen on Platinum Kingdom each-way here because I think he's got out to a silly price. He's won eight from 16 so he knows how to find the line. Unlucky last time at Hawkesbury when he didn't get clear running room in the straight.

I hope you copped the tip. I know self-praise is no praise but it is the only praise I get.

Locky's Selections
9 Platinum Kingdom (1st) $14.80 win / $4.10 place
4 Academus (3rd) $1.50 place
13 Al Aneed (14th)

Any 2 4-9 $13.10

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Solzhenitsyn (Doomben Race 4 No. 2) gets one last chance despite his poor showing last time out. On his best form he would smack this lot. 1st. $2.40 win / $1.30 place

Miss Steele (Flemington Race 1 No. 11) is the street corner tip this weekend and has been the subject of heavy support. Always wary when the money comes for one from the Mick Kent yard. 3rd. $1.60 place.

Fontelina (Scone Race 5 No. 5) ran well in much better quality races during the Sydney Carnival and the trainer and jockey combined to win last Saturday's Group 1 in Brisbane. Stick with them. 1st. $5.20 win.

Shannara (Scone Race 6 No. 2) is ready to win after three runs back and Darley do have a habit of winning races they sponsor. Goes well at this track. 11th.

Flying Snitzel (Scone Race 7 No. 12) is a horse I am convinced is better kept fresh and kept to the sprinting distances. Has had a freshen-up and drops back from the mile to the seven furlongs. 8th

QUOTE OF THE DAY


Someone better wake the Captain.
- Third Mate of the Exxon Valdez, Prince William Sound (Alaska), 24 March 1989

Friday, 17 May 2013

Doomben Cup preview

Abbreviated format this week people for reasons that I won't bore you with but the full, comprehensive blog will return next week.

I'm going to concentrate on Brisbane but the Scone meeting is a cracker with five Listed races plus the $500,000 Inglis Guineas (same prizemoney as the Doomben Cup - WTF?). Two Listed races at Flemington too highlighted by the running of the Andrew Ramsden Stakes over the Melbourne Cup circuit and over in WA the weight-for-age sprinters will tackle the Group 3 Roma Cup at Belmont.


LOOKING FORWARD



Who's hot?

Glen Boss has bagged four winners and a placing in 10 rides since last Saturday. He rode a treble at Sandown on Wednesday and claimed another winner the following day at Bendigo. In the last 12 months he has ridden more winners at Flemington (22) than any other jockey. The next best is Craig Williams on 16.


Doomben



*** The track is rated a Dead 5. ***


Doomben Cup (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

* Ginga Dude scratched



Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Foreteller.

Only one mare has won this race in the last 30 years. 14 of the last 15 paid $13 or less. Eight of the last 11 winners came via the Hollindale Stakes and six of those ran a place, including the last three in a row.

Lights Of Heaven seems to thrive in Queensland and who is to say she can't do it again. Foreteller looked the unlucky runner behind her after getting back and wide in a slowly run race. Lamasery was also good and has a sense of timing about him (his last two third-up runs have resulted in 2000m victories). Beaten Up will benefit from his first run past a mile in this country but could be looking towards the Brisbane Cup maybe? Hippopus is drawn to get a good run and the three-year-olds seem to be winning everything.

Locky's Selections

5 Lamasery
4 Foreteller
9 Lights Of Heaven

The Roses (Group 3, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

* The emergencies are all scratched


Express Power will start favourite and did look good winning two weeks ago and if she can repeat that performance she probably wins again. Dear Demi looks juicy odds for a filly of her calibre but the 20 barrier is a concern with a short run to the first turn. Gondokoro looks like she'll stay all day but will probably be better in two weeks time in the Oaks when they step across the road to the broader expanses of Eagle Farm. Zombie Dancer and Dolphus the best roughies after OK runs at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago.

Locky's Selections

4 Express Power
1 Dear Demi
5 Gondokoro

Fred Best Classic (Group 3, 1350m, 3-y-o set weights)

* Noogoora Burr, General Exhibit and the bottom three emergencies are scratched


Pretty keen on Platinum Kingdom each-way here because I think he's got out to a silly price. He's won eight from 16 so he knows how to find the line. Unlucky last time at Hawkesbury when he didn't get clear running room in the straight. Academus looks the obvious threat. He was super impressive in the Gold Coast Guineas and the step up to 1350m should suit. Al Aneed has to be included because he wasn't far away in that same race. Leaving Sizzling out because I think he goes better at Eagle Farm. Boban is another I could entertain because I can't forget his devastating win at this track and distance this time last year and he has finally found some form again at the right time.

Locky's Selections

9 Platinum Kingdom
4 Academus
13 Al Aneed

Other bets

Solzhenitsyn (Doomben Race 4 No. 2) gets one last chance despite his poor showing last time out. On his best form he would smack this lot.

Miss Steele (Flemington Race 1 No. 11) is the street corner tip this weekend and has been the subject of heavy support. Always wary when the money comes for one from the Mick Kent yard.

Fontelina (Scone Race 5 No. 5) ran well in much better quality races during the Sydney Carnival and the trainer and jockey combined to win last Saturday's Group 1 in Brisbane. Stick with them.

Shannara (Scone Race 6 No. 2) is ready to win after three runs back and Darley do have a habit of winning races they sponsor. Goes well at this track.

Flying Snitzel (Scone Race 7 No. 12) is a horse I am convinced is better kept fresh and kept to the sprinting distances. Has had a freshen-up and drops back from the mile to the seven furlongs.


LOOKING BACK



Eagle Farm


BTC Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)



Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Rain Affair. 2nd. $1.50 place

Apologies for the bad tips in Brisbane last weekend but I don't think anyone could have forseen the track going from a Dead 4 to a Heavy 9 in the space of half an hour.

Locky's Selections

7 Better Than Ready (3rd) $2.30 place
1 Buffering (4th)
3 Temple Of Boom (11th)

Champagne Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Bound For Earth the horse to follow.

Locky's Selections

3 Hooked (4th)
1 Octane Flyer (7th)
4 Vilanova (2nd) $2.90 place

Morphettville


Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Yosei. 10th.

Well done to Ben Melham on his third Group 1 winning ride in a fortnight.

Locky's Selections

7 Facile Tigre (15th)
1 Moment Of Change (5th)
5 Galah (8th)

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Sysmo (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 14) has been scratched from the Lord Mayors Cup in Sydney to tackle the Chairman's Handicap in Brisbane. Last start sixth behind Kelinni in the JRA Plate on Doncaster Day is good enough form for a race like this. Comes from an in-form stable who last Saturday delivered two winners and four placegetters across three states. 3rd. $2.10 place.

Someday (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 6) has five wins and three seconds from nine career starts. He's a winner. I like following winners. The Kelso Wood stable is flying too with 23 winners from 74 starters this season (31.1%). 2nd. $2.30 place.

Drago (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) is going to start odds-on but he's a horse I've been spruiking and tipping in this column for a few weeks now so I have to stay solid. I think he'll develop into a Derby hope next Spring so he'd want to be taking care of this lot. 1st. $1.30 win.

Forarainyday (Rosehill Race 8 No. 17) caught the eye first-up when flashing into third behind Arinosa and Miss Stellabelle in the Sapphire Stakes. Has never won second-up but hasn't missed a place either. Guy Walter and Blake Shinn are coming off good success in the Sydney Autumn carnival. Each-way. 3rd. $2.00 place.

Imoto (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) has been well tried in early markets and looks primed for this after two runs back. Has had three starts at the trip for two wins and a luckless close-up third last time out. Won over the mile third-up last preparation. 1st. $2.60 win.



QUOTE OF THE DAY


These are some kick-ass seats.
- Abraham Lincoln, Ford's Theatre, 14 April 1865

Friday, 10 May 2013

BTC Cup / Goodwood preview

The Winter Carnival must be here because the Kiwi invasion has started with 40 horses flying into Brisbane this week from across the ditch.

Eagle Farm hosts the first Group 1 of the carnival with the weight-for-age sprinters slugging it out in the BTC Cup. There's also a strong support card with the two-year-olds stepping out in the Group 2 Champagne Classic whilst the Queensland Derby hopefuls line up in the Group 3 Rough Habit Plate and potential Brisbane Cup candidates will go around in the Group 3 Chairman's Handicap.

Some good sprinters will be on show in Adelaide too with Morphettville the venue for the Group 1 Goodwood. It's backed up by three Group 3's including the SA Fillies Classic which always seems to throw up a live chance for the Queensland Oaks in three weeks time.

A handy field of stayers will line-up at Rosehill for the Listed Lord Mayor's Cup and with two $100,000 races on at Caulfield there's good quality racing Australia wide and plenty of winners to be found.

LOOKING FORWARD


Who's hot?

In the last year Les Ross and Brad Stewart have combined 59 times for 21 winners while Kris Lees and Christian Reith have notched 20 wins from just 56 runners. That's a strike rate of a tick over 35% or one in three. Pays to follow those sorts of combos.

Ross/Stewart

Eagle Farm Race 5 No. 5 Mishani Stealth ($17)

Lees/Reith

Rosehill Race 3 No. 7 Urgent Bells ($9.50)
Rosehill Race 4 No. 4 Brannickers ($5.50)
Rosehill Race 6 No. 13 Pirate Bay ($7)

Arguably the three hottest jockeys in the country in the last three weeks have been Damian Browne, Glen Colless and Hugh Bowman. Bowman has ridden 14 winners in that period with the other two notching a respectable 13. Browne has the best strike rate with his bag coming from just 44 rides (29.5% or about three winners every 10 rides). All have numerous engagements tomorrow and some good chances.

Eagle Farm


*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. Chance of a shower or two. ***



BTC Cup (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)



Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Rain Affair.

In the last 12 years nine favourites have tasted defeat but only three winners have paid more than $7.50. Only three females have won in the same period and just two three-year-olds have been successful.

From barrier two Rain Affair leads them up and Buffering either possies up outside or takes a sit. They look the best two on paper and that usually wins weight-for-age races but if they cut at each other in front it could set it up for something to run home over the top of them. I think Better Than Ready is that horse. He's not well in at the weights but the three-year-olds have just seemed to have the older horses measure so far this season. Sea Siren doesn't appear to be firing but could bounce back to form in Queensland because she thrived here last year winning this race and the Doomben 10,000. Temple Of Boom the best roughie as he has has won twice before at his fourth run into a prep (2011 Aurie's Star, 2012 Galaxy). On both those occasions his first three runs were ordinary.

Locky's Selections

7 Better Than Ready
1 Buffering
3 Temple Of Boom

Champagne Classic (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)




Pretty keen on Hooked here even though he drops back from 1350m to 1200m. He smacked Le Val on debut and that form looks pretty good now after his dominant win in the Ken Russell Memorial Classic last weekend at the Gold Coast. Octane Flyer has been mixing his form and is yet to win beyond 1010m but trainer Kelly Schweida is aiming at the Group 1 mile race for two-year-olds and he's trained a few more winners than I have. Did look good last time out though and if ridden quietly again will appreciate the return to level weights. Wary of the former Kiwi Vilanova, especially when I see C J Waller/J Bowman next to his name in the form guide.

Vo Heart, Into The Red, Global Dream and Bound For Earth also have claims.

Locky's Selections

3 Hooked
1 Octane Flyer
4 Vilanova

Morphettville



*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Good 3. ***




Goodwood (Group 1, 1200m, set weights plus penalties)

* Shellscrape and Zamorar are early scratchings.


Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Yosei.

In the last 11 years nine winners have drawn a single figure barrier. Four mares have won in the last eight years including the last three in a row. 20 of the last 30 winners carried 54kg or less.

Going to put Facile Tigre on top here because of the discrepancy in weight and odds between him and the favourite Moment Of Change. The toppie is going to start odds-on and has to lump 58.5kg while the other has just 54.5kg and will be around $8. Facile Tigre has placed in the last two Oakleigh Plates, both when first-up, and his overall fresh record is good (9:2-3-3). The favourite is the obvious danger though, if he's bounced back from that poor run in Sydney. Yosei is the only other runner under double figures but she doesn't win often and always seems to find trouble. So I'll throw Galah in for third at a bit of value. Talented on his day and can run a race fresh.

Locky's Selections

7 Facile Tigre
1 Moment Of Change
5 Galah

Other bets

Sysmo (Eagle Farm Race 6 No. 14) has been scratched from the Lord Mayors Cup in Sydney to tackle the Chairman's Handicap in Brisbane. Last start sixth behind Kelinni in the JRA Plate on Doncaster Day is good enough form for a race like this. Comes from an in-form stable who last Saturday delivered two winners and four placegetters across three states.

Someday (Eagle Farm Race 8 No. 6) has five wins and three seconds from nine career starts. He's a winner. I like following winners. The Kelso Wood stable is flying too with 23 winners from 74 starters this season (31.1%).

Drago (Rosehill Race 1 No. 1) is going to start odds-on but he's a horse I've been spruiking and tipping in this column for a few weeks now so I have to stay solid. I think he'll develop into a Derby hope next Spring so he'd want to be taking care of this lot.

Forarainyday (Rosehill Race 8 No. 17) caught the eye first-up when flashing into third behind Arinosa and Miss Stellabelle in the Sapphire Stakes. Has never won second-up but hasn't missed a place either. Guy Walter and Blake Shinn are coming off good success in the Sydney Autumn carnival. Each-way.

Imoto (Caulfield Race 2 No. 8) has been well tried in early markets and looks primed for this after two runs back. Has had three starts at the trip for two wins and a luckless close-up third last time out. Won over the mile third-up last preparation.

NEWS OF THE WEEK




We'll start off with "Singo-gaite" as it's been dubbed and the latest is the inquiry will resume on Monday. Andrew Johns and Allan Robinson have confirmed they will attend, Eddie Hayson has not. Stewards are investigating if there were any issues with More Joyous that should have been brought to their attention before her inglorious second-last in the All Aged Stakes on April 27. Just in case you've been living in a cave.

All Too Hard isn't heading overseas. He's been retired to stud. Vinery won't be pressing on to Royal Ascot so he will bow out a last-start winner, and Australia's second highest internationally rated horse behind his older, also retired half-sister Black Caviar.

Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter is heading overseas. He flies out for Singapore on Sunday. His chances in next weekend's Group 1 Krisflyer International Sprint have improved too with local champion Rocket Man ruled out with a minor setback.

It's been a bad week for Brisbane trainer Robert Heathcote. He was fined $500 by stewards on Monday for "conduct prejudicial to the image of racing" for comments he made on his blog about jockey Larry Cassidy. It went from bad to worse when he missed the first acceptance payment deadline for next Saturday's Doomben Cup with Solzhenitsyn. The Toorak winner will now head towards the Stradbroke instead, via the Lord Mayor's Cup at Doomben next weekend.

Meanwhile former Goldolphin trainer Mahmood al-Zarooni has appealed against the severity of his eight year disqualification for doping. He admitted to giving 15 horses anabolic steroids following a routine visit by testers. Sheikh Mohammed has locked down his Newmarket stables in the wake of the scandal

Lastly sad news for the connections of both Stout Hearted and Crackaroadie. The former had to be put down after sustaining a serious foot injury last weekend when he escaped from a trackwork rider. The latter was killed in a freak accident when he was hit by a truck after breaking free and running out a gate. Sincere commiserations to all involved.


LOOKING BACK


Morphettville


South Australian Derby (Group 1, 2500m, 3-y-o set weights)

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Shoreham.

Only one filly in th last 13 years and only three in the last thirty. Six of the last seven favourites have won. The highest price any of those paid was $4.50. 3rd. $1.70 place.

Average race. Look for this lot to be at the Oakbank meeting next Easter going over the steeples.

Locky's Selections

4 Gerontius (4th)
3 Shoreham (3rd) $1.70 place
8 McNulty (6th)




Gold Coast


Hollindale Stakes (Group 2, 1800m, w-f-a)

Not sure what to make of this race as they went out slow and sprinted home which is highlighted by the bunched finish where less than two lengths separated first and seventh. The winner obviously thrives in Queensland but under the cuircumstances the best efforts were from the get back, run on horses like Foreteller, Lamasery and Danleigh. Solzhenitsyn looked dour.


Locky's Selections


5 Solzhenitsyn (7th)
6 Lamasery (4th)
10 Stout Hearted (SCR)

Gold Coast Guineas (Group 3, 1200m, 3-y-o set weights)

Academus looked very good and will probably start a short priced favourite in the Fred Best Classic next weekend as a result. Al Aneed went super too and gave us a bit of value. Sizzling disappointing but I'll forgive him one bad run.


Locky's Selections


1 Sizzling (5th)
4 Academus (1st) $5.10 win / $2.00 place
8 Al Aneed (2nd) $5.30 place

Other bets


Walk With Attitude (Flemington Race 7 No. 1) is ready to win and the $5 on offer looks generous. She'll be suited by the step up to 1200m after storming home last start and has won second-up at her only previous attempt. With the two kilo claim she isn't badly in at the weights with a 54kg minimum. 10th.

Beaten Up (Hawkesbury Race 6 No. 4) can keep the good form rolling for Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller and the imports now trained in Australia. Two runs in this country should have him ready to peak. The 1600m may be a little short but that's why we'll get about $9. 2nd. $2.00 place.


Peron (Gold Coast Race 2 No. 13) has won three from four and has had a little freshen up for this and drops back to the 1200m. There's been some early money but you can still get $4.40. 1st. $3.10 win / $1.60 place.


QUOTE OF THE DAY


I'm getting too old for this shit.

- Ray Murrihy, Randwick, 27 April 2013