Sydney Cup preview

This week sees a revamped format so those of you who are just looking for tips can find them first. I'm also introducing a rejigged statistical analysis via "Dr Stats Ph.D. Says".

I'll follow that with all the racing news since I last published and finish off with how we fared last time out.

Lastly - Good to see the ANZAC silks being worn by the topweights at Flemington for the ANZAC Day meeting yesterday.

Lest We Forget.

LOOKING FORWARD

Randwick

*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 4. There are four early scratchings. ***

Race 1 No. 5 Rowie
Race 3 No. 12 Bugaboo
Race 8 No. 3 Hot Snitzel
Race 8 No. 5 Pampelonne

Who's hot?

You don't have to be Colombo to figure out that Chris Waller and Tommy Berry are the in-form guys carnival wise. Waller's best chances appear to be Catkins, Reliable Man and Kelinni. Berry's best mounts look to be Decision Time and Silent Achiever with Shahad an each-way chance.

The Blake Shinn/Guy Walter combination is operating at a tick over 25% or one in four. Tomorrow they combine on Toydini and Skyerush.

Sydney Cup (Group 1, 3200m, open handicap)

Current market

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Kelinni.

Eight of the last 10 winners have paid $9 or less. Four of the last five favourites have won.

Who will stay the 3200m? Kelinni ran fourth in last year's Melbourne Cup and was on a quick back-up there too. Maluckyday ran third in The Cup two years ago. Niwot and Blood Brotha have two wins at the trip. Norsqui won last month's Adelaide Cup and Macedonian also has a victory over the two miles but that was in the Sandown Cup two and a half years ago. Mourayan ran third in that race. Tremec has not started at 3200m but his mother Tipple is a half-sister to Melbourne Cup winner Brew so he is bred to get the trip.

Locky's Selections

8 Tremec

4 Kelinni

5 Maluckyday

Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)

Current market

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Reliable Man.

No three-year-old has won since Intergaze in 1997 and in that time three odds-on favourites have lost. Nine favourites have been beaten in the last 14 years including Sunline, Lonhro, Haradasun, Shogun Lodge, Tuesday Joy, Universal Prince and Whobegotyou. Only one mare has won this race since 1987. 25 of the last 30 winners have paid $7.50 or less.

Hard to tip against the favourite despite the poor record of favourites and three-year-olds. Reliable Man was good in the George Ryder and he goes to the paddock after this (no Winter campaign) so this is his grand final. Lamasery goes well second-up (4:2-0-2). Secret Admirer and Happy Trails come here as an afterthought and my proclivities on that score have been well documented. Manighar went super last time out and may be getting back to somewhere near peak form. Silent Achiever is a query as she drops from the 2400m to the 2000m and this does look like a consolation prize for not winning the BMW rather than something she has been specifically aimed at.

Locky's Selections

9 It's A Dundeel
2 Reliable Man

5 Lamasery 

All Aged Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, w-f-a)

Current market

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: More Joyous.

Only two three-year-olds have won this race in the last 16 years. Gai Waterhouse has won this race four times. Only one winner has paid $8+ in the last 13 runnings and in that time eight favourites have won.

The bottom three should fight it out. I could entertain Rain Affair in trifectas and first fours because he'll give them something to run down. Hard to see any of the others coming from behind More Joyous, All Too Hard and Epaulette and running past them. The three-year-olds have won everything this Autumn (Orr, Futurity, Australian Cup, Canterbury Stakes, George Ryder, BMW, Doncaster etc.) but I've just got a feeling Nash will be out for revenge after the mare was a good thing beaten last  time out.

Locky's Selections

6 More Joyous
7 All Too Hard

8 Epaulette

Champagne Stakes (Group 1, 1600m, 2-y-0 set weights)

Current market

Dr Stats Ph.D. Says: Guelph.

11 of the last 14 winners have finished either first or second in the Sires Produce at their last start. Peter Snowden has trained two of the last three winners. Only 1 favourite (Beneteau 2010) has failed to run a place in the last 18 years and nine of them won. Only four winners in that time paid more than $7.

It's hard to recommend anything that finished outside the top four in the Sires because they were all safely held. I've got a query on Scandiva at the mile too. Outside that race you have the two from the Golden Slipper in Criterion and Fast 'n' Rocking. Is this race an afterthought though? Or was it the target all along? They both give the appearance of looking for the 1600m. Gai Waterhouse has won this race five times and Nash Rawiller twice so Equator is in good hands. Riocetto is the fresh horse on the scene.

Locky's Selections

9 Drago
11 Guelph

1 Riocetto

Other bets

Skyerush (Race 3 No. 3) loves the mile and loves Randwick. Well weighted here given she drops back to fillies and mares grade after beating the boys with an extra one and a half kilos last start. As previously mentioned, Guy Walter and Blake Shinn could win on a rocking horse. Should be backable at about $4.

An all-up at Caulfield could be the way to go with Awesome Bro (Race 4 No. 3) and Rugged Cross (Race 5 No. 6) both well tried but likely to start short.

Honey Flower (Adelaide Race 8 No. 8) has been scratched from a mares race in Melbourne to contest a much harder Listed race at Morphettville. Looks a good each-way chance at around $8. 

NEWS OF THE WEEK

Obviously the biggest news of the last seven days in Australian racing circles is that Pierro has joined Black Caviar in retirement.

He raced 14 times for 11 victories plus second placings in the Caulfield Guineas and Doncaster and a third in a Cox Plate to amass almost $4.5 million in prizemoney. His stud value is estimated at more than $25 million. Where he'll stand is unknown.

The big news overseas has been the announcement that Sheikh Mohammed has closed his Goldolphin stables at Newmarket and ordered a full scale investigation after 11 horses tested positive for anabolic steroids. Trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni has been handed a mammoth eight year ban by British racing's governing body for his role in administering the prohibited substances ethylestranol and stanozolol. Al Zarooni claims it was a "catastrophic error" and says that he didn't realise he was in breach of the rules by administering the drugs as the horses were not racing at the time.

Still on the overseas front and usually at this time of year we're waving goodbye to our top horses as they head off on OS campaigns but this year it's our jockeys on the move.

Tommy Berry heads off to Hong Kong for a two and a half month stint after completing his obligations at Randwick tomorrow. He could split a cab to the airport with Craig Williams because he'll also ride tomorrow before taking up a two month contract in Japan. Unfortunately he'll miss the first meeting after copping a suspension at Flemington yesterday. Meanwhile Corey Brown will ride Snitzerland in Adelaide tomorrow before he heads to Singapore and then France. He'll be away for four and a half months.

NZ Derby winner and last weekend's beaten Oaks favourite Habibi is also off OS after being sold to US interests, although her owner-breeders will retain a minority share. She'll be trained by Graham Motion, trainer of Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom, and will be aimed at the Breeders' Cup meeting later in the year.

Nikita McLean's five month ban for punching younger sister Jackie Beriman in the jockeys room at Hamilton a fortnight ago has been reduced to two and a half months on appeal. It was ruled that stewards placed too much emphasis on her previous misconduct conviction for assaulting another jockey and not enough on her mental state at the time of the incident.

In Sydney Chris Waller has escaped sanction for bringing four horses to the races with Ibuprofen in their systems after NSW stewards found he had no case to answer. Feed contamination was found to be the reason for a series of positive tests but stipes agreed with Waller that he took every possible measure to ensure feed consumed by his horses contained no prohibited substances.

Meantime VCAT has dismissed the appeal by Con and Tony Karakatsanis relating to the stomach-tubing incident involving Howmuchdoyouloveme before the Yellowglen Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day last year. Con was initially rubbed out for nine months and his father for two years. VCAT will now hear appeals on the severity of the penalty lodged by both men.

LOOKING BACK

Randwick

Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, open handicap)

The overall time was slow and they didn't go hard in front so Sacred Falls effort to come from last was massive. Pierro was gallant in defeat with the big weight and Norzita stuck on well after finding herself in front way too soon. Hard to make excuses for anything else as the winner ran past them all. He may just be a superior wet tracker.

Locky's Selections

14 Norzita (3rd)

2 Pierro (2nd)
11 Appearance (7th)

Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Royal Descent destroyed them. Forget the rest.

Locky's Selections

2 Habibi (4th)
3 Longport (5th)

5 More Than Sacred (9th)

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Everage (Race 2 No. 1) has two wins and three seconds from five starts. Both victories were on heavy ground and amongst her placings were seconds to Overreach in the Widden Stakes and Safeguard in last Saturday's Kindergarten Stakes when she looked home. The presence of the Waterhouse trained Major Conquest and Darley's Scrutiny should see us get about $3.50. Won. $2.10.

I could also entertain Brightest (Race 9 No. 12) on an each-way basis at the $15 mark. Two wins and a second from three second-up runs and is in the hands of form trainer Guy Walter. 13th.

Scream Machine (Race 6 No. 11) is finally getting to a trip that suits and provided he can get a solid tempo in front he should be storming home. Two wins and a third from three tries at 2000m. Keen to have a nibble each-way at the $11. 5th.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Sunshine... on the water.... makes me nose-dive.
- John Denver, just off the California coast, 12 October 1997

Doncaster / Oaks preview

It seems like every week I kick off this column with Black Caviar or something Black Caviar related. Obviosuly no difference this week with the mighty mare officially retired on Wednesday.

As yet there's no news on which stallion she will meet with in the breeding barn, but her fans will get one last chance to catch a glimpse of her when she parades at Caulfield this weekend after Race 4. Entry is free.

I won't rehash her life story because it's been done ad nauseum in the press over the last two days but I will share an interesting stat:

Such was her dominance that a $1 win bet at her first start rolled over into her next 24 starts would have netted less than $340.

Meanwhile her half brother All Too Hard will stand at Vinery Stud this Spring for a first season fee of $66,000. He'll have just one more start in this country in the All Aged Stakes next weekend ahead of a possible tilt at Royal Ascot in June.

The TAB faces a massive payout if the short-priced favourite wins tomorrow's Doncaster Mile. Media manager Glenn Munsie has stated "“Pierro winning is a seven-figure loser for us.” One punter took a $10,0000 double Miracles Of Life to win the Blue Diamond into Pierro to win the Doncaster at $49. There have also been substantial doubles with Golden Slipper winner Overreach.

Trainer Murray Baker has confirmed It's A Dundeel will push on to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes next weekend. Meantime connections of King Mufhasa have accepted an invitation to contest the Champions Mile in Hong Kong on May 5.

Group One-winning jockey Nikita McLean has been outed for five months after pleading guilty to punching her sister, apprentice Jackie Berriman, after a long-running family row came to a head in the female jockeys room at Hamilton last Sunday. McLean won the Emirates Stakes in 2007 on 100-1 outsider Tears I Cry.

But for mine the best racing story this week was a video I found on YouTube featuring possibly the best thing beaten you've ever seen. If you've not already seen the below run by Spicer Cub at Pimlico in the U.S. then check it out now.

LOOKING BACK

A mixed bag last week with two winners on top and another two in the top three from five races but I can't really claim Black Caviar or It's A Dundeel at odds-on. They way I'm going though I may soon have to.

Rosehill

Australian Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

It's A Dundeel was in another class. Phillipi battled on well but was never a threat. Kingdoms could be a good horse if he learns to stop fighting the jockey. High Shot is sacked. Enough said.

Locky's Selections

1 It's A Dundeel (1st) $1.40 win / $1.60 place

3 Phillipi (2nd) $1.30 place

9 High Shot (8th)

Quinella 1-3 $2.70

Exacta 1-3 $2.40

Any 2 1-3 $1.80

T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

The mare had to work for it but she still cleared out to beat a Golden Rose winner in Epaulette (3 lengths), a Galaxy winner in Bel Sprinter (5 1/4 lengths), an Apollo Stakes winner in Rain Affair (5 3/4 lengths) and a Doomben 10,000 winner in Sea Siren (6 lengths). They were all good runs but they couldn't get near her.

Locky's Selections

9 Black Caviar (1st) $1.10 win / $1.00 place

3 Rain Affair (4th)

10 Sea Siren (5th)

Sires Produce Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 2-y-o set weights)

Scandiva looked to have it shot to bits at any old price before Guelph chimed in. Both runs were good. The favourite was OK too (unless you took the odds-on) because she obviously didn't back up from the Golden Slipper run and she sat on a pretty solid tempo up front. Either that or she's just a very good 1000m-1200m horse. Time will tell.

Locky's Selections

7 Overreach (3rd) $1.00 place

8 Guelph (1st) $7.90 win / $1.90 place

13 Florid Affair (9th)

Any 2 7-8 $2.40

Chairman's Quality (Group 2, 2600m, quality handicap)

I went like a busted here. Not one of my top three ran a place. Funny race with none of the top five runners over the line paying under $13 and the top three in the market finishing sixth, ninth and last. First two probably head to the Sydney Cup and could be lightweight chances with Tremec bred to stay all day and Blood Brotha already a two-time winner over 3200m.

Locky's Selections

11 Hathras (6th)
2 Julienas (12th)

1 Mourayan (4th)

Sapphire Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

Arinosa continues to impress. That's seven wins from her last ten starts. Hard to make excuses for the rest because they were soundly beaten (four and a quarter lengths) and the bunched finish indicates that they are a fairly even lot with just two and a half lengths separating second and twelfth.

Locky's Selections

9 Detours (5th)

5 Arinosa (1st) $4.50 win / $2.10 place

4 Dystopia (4th)

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Tatra (Race 2 No. 1) will be much better back to 1600m and given that Toydini is likely to start pretty short given all the hype I'm happy to take him on at the level weights. Should get about $5. 5th. Had every possible hope. Disappointing.

LOOKING FORWARD

Randwick

*** As of 4.00pm today the track was rated a Dead 5 and it isn't likely to improve. In fact with a forecast of widespread showers (heavy at times) for tonight and tomorrow we could be looking at a Slow 6 or worse ***

Who's hot?

The in form trainers in the last three weeks have been Guy Walter and Bjorn Baker. Walter has had 15 winners and 12 placegetters from 45 runners. (Win 33.33% / Place 60%). Baker has been almost as impressive with six wins from 24 starters at a strike rate of one in four.

G Walter - Eucumbene, Skateboard, Zuccotto, Appearance, Streama, Brightest

B Baker - Fuerza, Cantonese

Damian Browne has the best strike rate of any jockey in the country in the last 21 days with 10 wins and six placings from 23 rides (Win 43.5% / Place 69.5%). Vinnie Colgan has six from 22 (27.3%) and Blake Shinn 14 from 56 (25%).

D Browne - Solzhenitsyn

V Colgan - Habibi

B Shinn - Ideal Guide, Zuccotto, Secret Admier

Gai Waterhouse and Nash Rawiller always tend to bob up at this time of year when we return to headquarters and they've been relatively quiet of late so beware.

G Waterhouse - Major Conquest, Aztec Rose, Hydro, Pierro, Under The Sun

N Rawiller - Studio, Major Conquest, Hydro, Hurrara, Kelinni, Royal Descent, Pierro

Doncaster Mile (Group 1, 1600m, open handicap)

Current market

Pierro will start around $2.50 so what do the stats say about favourites recently? Well they're doing a lot better than they used to. Six of the last 14 favourites have won, as opposed to the 14 previous years when not one favourite saluted. The other stat we should investigate is short-priced favourites because you don't often get them in Doncasters. In fact in the last 30 years only two favourites have started at $2.50 or shorter. Sunline won in 1999 and Lonhro ran fourth in 2003. Both started at $2.10.

So what about age and weight? Well coincidentally just like the favourites six of the last 14 winners were three-year-olds. In fact 14 of the last 30 winners were three-year-olds. That's almost half. Lightweights have been favoured too with 11 of the past 14 winners (and 22 of the last 30) carrying 54.5kg or less.

Nine of the last 11 winners had placed at their last start, six of those were winners. The majority of winners have come via the George Ryder Stakes (13 of 30) with four horses completing the double. In the last 19 years only two winners have paid more than $13.

So what does all that mean? Well Pierro is a deserved favourite and in all likelihood should win because he's drawn to get the run of the race in an event that looks devoid of any real speed. Gai Waterhouse has put the polish on seven Doncaster winners so he will be trained to the minute.

Norzita ticks all the boxes in terms of odds, weight, age and form but she'll need a little bit of Craig Williams magic from the wide gate.

Appearance and Streama have the services of in-form trainer Guy Walter. The former looks the best weighted runner in the race at just 0.5kg over the minimum despite being a three time Group 1 winner. The latter showed a glimpse of her old form last time out and she won't know herself with just 53.5kg, the lightest weight she has carried in some time. Her jockey Glen Boss has won this race five times. 

Shoot Out was probably the run of the race in the George Ryder Stakes when he stormed home into third behind Pierro in a race where few made ground due to the fact that they walked the first half mile and then sprinted home. He's won four Group 1's over the mile, two of them at Randwick, and ran second in this race last year. He also meets Pierro much better at the weights than he did a fortnight ago.

Solzhenitsyn looked right in this until the rain came. His best runs have traditionally been three runs or further into his prep (13:8-0-2) and I was prepared to overlook his last start failure due to his poor second-up record (just one win from seven attempts) but he runs like wet paint on affected going so I'll be looking for others.

Of the rest Ethiopia is the dark horse. He goes into this fresh but he is a horse of some ability. Happy Trails beat Green Moon in a Group 2 1600m w-f-a race third run in last preparation, Sacred Falls isn't hopeless with a second to It's A Dundeel last start and Lightinthenite is drawn to get a good run close to the speed.

If you're going wide in your exotics you could make a case for quite a few but unfortunately I only get to pick three.

Locky's Selections

14 Norzita

2 Pierro

11 Appearance

Australian Oaks (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

Who will stay the trip? Dear Demi, Habibi and More Than Sacred have won at 2400m or beyond. Gondokoro and Summerbliss are bred to get a trip and Royal Descent looked strong at the end of her first go at 2000m last weekend, 59kg and all.

Are there any known mudlarks? Not really. Dear Demi is one from one on a heavy track but has failed twice on the slow. Habibi has a first and a third from two goes on the slow. Longport and Royal Descent have placed in their only attempts on slow ground or worse.

There have been a few blowouts in recent years but still 12 of the last 16 winners have paid $8.50 or less, although only five started favourite.

I'm leaning towards the Kiwis here because I don't think we'll look back on this crop of three-year-old Australian fillies in years to come and think it was a vintage year. Habibi wasn't suited last start by a five week break between runs and a drop from 2400m to 2000m but whilst safely held her best work was her last 200m.

If I like Habibi I have to have Longport in there somewhere. Let's face it, take Norzita out of the Vinery and this filly beats Habibi by almost three lengths and the rest of them by nearly six. Yet she's likely to start around $6? Curiouser and curiouser.

More Than Sacred's last two runs across the ditch have also suggested she'll eat up the mile and a half because she was headed both times but fought back to win.

Dear Demi is good enough to win this on her best form but she is nowhere near her best form at the moment. Gondokoro is a typical Pat Carey Zabeel with a sense of timing but as previously mentioned she was safley held in the Vinery. Summerbliss was unlucky in the same race but again finished well astern and I'm avoiding Royal Descent because this race is an afterthought, she's coming off a tough run with a big weight and I think the Adrian Knox form is a tier below.

Locky's Selections

2 Habibi

3 Longport

5 More Than Sacred

Other bets

Everage (Race 2 No. 1) has two wins and three seconds from five starts. Both victories were on heavy ground and amongst her placings were seconds to Overreach in the Widden Stakes and Safeguard in last Saturday's Kindergarten Stakes when she looked home. The presence of the Waterhouse trained Major Conquest and Darley's Scrutiny should see us get about $3.50.

I could also entertain Brightest (Race 9 No. 12) on an each-way basis at the $15 mark. Two wins and a second from three second-up runs and is in the hands of form trainer Guy Walter.

Scream Machine (Race 6 No. 11) is finally getting to a trip that suits and provided he can get a solid tempo in front he should be storming home. Two wins and a third from three tries at 2000m. Keen to have a nibble each-way at the $11.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Now where did I put the soap?

- Pontius Pilate, Judaea, 33 A.D. 

Australian Derby Day preview

No surpise that the number one headline this week is the purchase of Black Caviar's half brother for $5 million at the Inglis sales. It's been done to death so I won't go into it too much, suffice to say that it is a record for a yearling sold at auction in this country.

A couple of other nice lots went through the sales ring with a Fastnet Rock colt out of River Dove knocked down for $4 million. He could be a flying machine because both his mother and father are Oakleigh Plate winners. 

A half brother to another Oakleigh Plate winner Starspangledbanner sold for $2.4 million.

Bad news for connections of Fiveandahalfstar with the gelding ruled out of the Australian Derby after he sprained a fetlock during last week's win in the BMW. Rebel Dane and Laser Hawk have also been sent to the spelling paddock following their disappointing efforts in the George Ryder Stakes.

Unless he can successfully appeal the severity of his suspension Kiwi young gun James McDonald will also miss the remainder of the Autumn Carnival after incurring the wrath of the stewards for his ride on Romantic Moon in the Golden Slipper last weekend. He's free to ride It's A Dundeel in the Derby tomorrow before beginning his suspension on Sunday. It lasts until April 28 and that means he'll miss the last two days of the Randwick Carnival.

It's better news for Golden Slipper winning jockey Tommy Berry. He's been awarded a contract to ride in Hong Kong for three months, beginning later this month.

Congratulations are also in order for hoop Greg Ryan who rode his 3000th career winner on Tuesday at Tamworth. His first came at Wellington back in 1991.

Great to see Chris Munce back in the saddle at Eagle Farm on Wednesday after seven weeks of radiation and three sessions of chemotherapy to treat the throat cancer he was diagnosed with late last year.

Ocean Park has run his last race. A tendon injury has forced his retirement and now stud duties beckon. The four-year-old son of Thorn Park amassed almost $2.8 million in prizemoney in eight wins from 15 starts, the highlight being his victory in last year's Cox Plate.

On a sad note 2002 VRC Derby winner Helenus has died from complications during surgery. The three time Group 1 winner of more than $2.1 million in prizemoney had been performing stallion duties at Wattle Grove in NSW. His best progeny to date are last year's Australian Derby winner Ethiopia and former BMW winner Cedarberg.

Lastly the winner of this year's Stradbroke Handicap at Eagle Farm during the Winter Carnival is in for a bonus with Queensland racing officials confirming a guaranteed $1 million winners cheque.

LOOKING BACK

Five Group 1 races last weekend and I tipped every single winner in my Top 3 with two on top. I also tipped two of the first three in all bar The BMW so perhaps the way to go this weekend is the Duet or Any 2, depending on the state in which you are betting .

Rosehill

Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

This race was all over after they'd gone about five yards when Overreach flew the gates and landed on the rail, near the front. In fact I thought the first seven over the line were all good runs looking ahead to races like the ATC Sires Produce, Champagne Stakes and the three-year-old races next Spring. Even I'm All The Talk could be forgiven with rider Brenton Avdulla reporting that his mount "got turned sideways before the corner and just didn't finish his race off after that".

Locky's Selections

13 Sweet Idea (3rd) $2.10 place
5 I'm All The Talk (10th)
11 Overreach (1st) $3.00 win / $1.70 place

Any 2 11-13 $4.70

The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

A cheeky ride by Hugh Bowman got the chocolates in this race with Fiveandahalfstar able to have a breather between the 1400m and 700m mark. Considering he was able to pour on the pressure from that point the run of Silent Acheiver was enormous after getting too far back. Maluckyday did the same thing and believe me Dwayne Dunn copped a spray for it. Sangster was much improved and completed a trifecta of former Derby winners. Jim Cassidy reported Foreteller didn't stay the 2400m and Christian Reith thinks Hathras will be better back on top of the ground. Kelinni did well to battle on after being forced to drag the field up to the leader.

Locky's Selections

5 Maluckday (6th)
12 Fiveandahalfstar (1st) $1.70 place

10 Hathras (7th)

George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)

I'll start off by looking at this race in terms of relative weights for the Doncaster next weekend. Fontelina finished fifth beaten less than a length and a half and drops seven kilos. Solzhenitsyn drops five and a half kilograms and he can be forgiven as his wet track and second-up record is poor. Happy Trails and Danleigh also weren't too far away and they drop four kilos.

Having said that, how good was the winner Pierro? Set a task by Nash Rawiller who sat three wide without cover to avoid a repeat of the More Joyous fiasco earlier in the day and was still able to run down a seasoned older horse who got away with daylight robbery in front. Drops 0.5kg for the Doncaster.

As I've said it was a slowly run race with King Mufhasa allowed to dictate and that was reflected in the fact that only two and a quarter lengths separated the first nine over the line.

Under the circumstances the  efforts of backmarkers like Shoot Out (drops 2kg), Manighar and Reliable Man were good.

Locky's Selections

11 Pierro (1st) $1.30 win / $1.00 place

9 Solzhenitsyn (Last)
1 Shoot Out (3rd) $2.10 place

Any 2 1-11 $2.80

Queen of the Turf Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

No secrets that odds-on favourite More Joyous was desperately unlucky here and should have won. It was in form trainer Guy Walter to the fore again with first and third. Appearance continues to get under the radar and it was good to see Streama return to form. Red Tracer was honest again.

Locky's Selections

4 Red Tracer (2nd) $1.50 place

1 More Joyous (5th)
3 Appearance (1st) $9.80 win / $2.60 place

Any 2 3-4 $3.90

Vinery Stud Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Longport gave Norzita a fright but in the end the Bart Cummings filly was too good. She's a genuine lightweight hope in the Doncaster now seeing she'll get four kilos from Pierro. Habibi is a deserved Oaks favourite. She was five weeks between runs and dropping back from 2400m to 2000m. She looked a bit dour, was caught flat footed and couldn't sprint with them but still hit the line full of running. It's hard to make a case for the rest turning it around in a fortnight because the first three cleared out, although Gondokoro does have a bit of that Pat Carey/Ethiopia sense of timing about her.

Locky's Selections

3 Norzita (1st) $3.00 win / $1.60 place

2 Dear Demi (5th)

4 Habibi (3rd) $1.60 place

Any 2 3-4 $2.70

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

High Shot (Rosehill Race 3 No. 15) was doing his best work late in the Phar Lap Stakes and was the last one to pull up, a sure sign he's looking for the 2000m. He's entered for the Australian Derby so the stable obviously thinks he has potential. Happy to have a nibble each-way at the $8 currently on offer.

8th. Showed early promise but is not putting himself into races. One last chance tomorrow in the Derby (place only) with the blinkers on first time.

LOOKING FORWARD

Randwick

*** As of 11.30am today the track was rated a Slow 6 and is likely to improve with the forecast for mostly fine, warm and sunny conditions for the rest of today and tomorrow ***

Australian Derby (Group 1, 2400m, 3-y-o set weights)

Current market

Hard to tip against the odds-on favourite It's A Dundeel after his authoritative wins in the Randwick Guineas and Rosehill Guineas. His only real danger seemed to be Fiveandahalfstar before his withdrawal. Murray Baker has had just four horses contest this race but has walked away with a win and a second. 

The only knocks could be the fact that he has failed at his only go at this trip (although he is a stronger horse now according to both rider and trainer) and that just two favourites have won this race in the last 16 years (Headturner at $3.50 in 2006 and Universal Prince at $2.90 in 2001). Octagonal is the last odds-on pop to win in 1996 at $1.90. Having said that, six of the last seven odds-on favourites have won.

The only way he could get beaten is if something improves dramatically. So who could that be?

Hvasstan obviously springs to mind. He beat It's A Dundeel home in the VRC Derby last November and has shown he is a stayer of some promise with wins in the Norman Robinson  Stakes and Alister Clark Stakes. If you treat his first start failure in Sydney as an anomalie then he can run a big race.

Phillipi is another who just keeps improving every time the bar is raised and his lovely relaxed racing style makes him an ideal Derby horse. Flashed home from last on the turn to finish sixth in the Australian Guineas before a closing second in the Alister Clarke behind Hvasstan then completed his preparation by bolting in last weekend in the Tulloch Stakes.

The blinkers go on High Shot, Mick Kent continues to push on and Craig Williams hasn't sacked him so that's a good sign because it is not something he's afraid to do.

Hippopus was OK behind Phillipi in the Tulloch Stakes and being from the Waterhouse yard you would expect him to be rock hard fit and up on the pace. That looks an advantage here with no real speed in the race. Interesting stat though - despite their dominance at Randwick in recent years, Gai Waterhouse (17 runners) and Nash Rawiller (5 rides) have never won an Australian Derby.

Kingdoms looks like he will stay all day but is a class below the top ones.

Locky's Selections

1 It's A Dundeel
3 Phillipi
9 High Shot

T.J. Smith Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)

Current market

This race did not become a Group 1 until 2005 and in the eight subsequent runnings six favourites have have gone under including names like Alinghi, Foxwedge, Apache Cat, Mic Mac, Spark of Life and Snitzel. That could be the only possible argument you could make for Black Caviar getting beaten if she is on song. But she won't.

Bel Sprinter was awesome in the Galaxy when he gave them windburn between the 300m and the 200m but how much has that first-up blitz taken out of him? You have to believe your eyes (take Snitzerland out and he wins by four) but I'll be looking around him for my exotics as I think I'll get better value that way. 

Rain Affair will lead them a merry dance in front but I'm sure trainer Joe Pride would have preferred the rain to have stayed around. He'll be in front for a long way and give you a great sight and could be a cheeky place bet.

It says something about the calibre of the favourite when a mare like Sea Siren who has won six from twelve including three Group 1's can go around at $21. She was ridden upside down in the Galaxy last start and may benefit from being ridden a bit further back where she can finish her race off. Could run into the minors.

Hay List has had a year long injury layoff, had to be scratched from The Galaxy, missed a trial due to wet weather then trialed poorly at Wyong last Sunday. I hope he runs a good race to get some fitness going ahead to the All Aged Stakes in a fortnight but I can't have him.

$71+ the rest.

Locky's Selections

9 Black Caviar

3 Rain Affair

10 Sea Siren

Sires Produce Stakes (Group 1, 1400m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

All the stats point to last weekend's dashing Golden Slipper winner Overreach. Gai Waterhouse has trained seven of the last 13 Sires Produce winners. In the last 20 years only 2 winners have paid more than $8 (Excites at $21 in 2006 and Yosei at $17 in 2010) and every other runner is likely to start at $11+.

It's hard to see anything that finished behind her turning the tables tomorrow as there weren't any real hard luck stories. You could make an argument that Guelph has scope for improvement given the run last Saturday was her first in six weeks. Charlie Boy did get into a bumping duel at the top of the straight and he may be able to possie up a bit closer this week given the inside draw and the smaller field. Windjammer was only OK and I honestly don't think Villa Verde would go 1400m if you dropped her down a mineshaft.

Florid Affair is the only horse under $21 who did not contest the Slipper. Won in much weaker grade last time out but did so with an air of authority. Another Waterhouse runner so no loss there and the added bonus is the engagement of Jim Cassidy. Since "Pumper" rode that winning double on Pierro and Foreteller on Rosehill Guineas Day he has ridden nine winners and seven placegetters from 36 rides. (Win 25% / Place 44%)

So Man Up was slowly away at Cranbourne on debut, settled last, raced greenly and yet still won as he liked. I don't know if he can get away with those sort of mistakes tomorrow but Peter Moody obviously thinks enough of him to bring him north.

I think Champollion, Havana, Drago, Scandiva and Shahad could develop into nice horses but I think they are a level below the others at this stage.

Locky's Selections

7 Overreach
8 Guelph
13 Florid Affair

Chairman's Quality (Group 2, 2600m, quality handicap)

* Dance With Her is an early scratching

Current market

Hathras looks the one here dropping to 53kg in a Group 2 handicap after carrying 58kg last weekend in a Group 1 weight-for-age race. He was less than two and a half lengths behind Fiveandahalfstar and that'll do me. I also liked the way he battled on in the straight after looking beaten on the turn.

Julienas is in great touch and Gai Waterhouse and Nash Rawiller have a habit of bobbing up when racing returns to headquarters. The 58kg over 2600m is the concern though, with 12 of the last 15 winners of this race carrying 54.5kg or less.

Mourayan saves some of his best form for Sydney. He has won a Craven Plate and finished second in both a Metropolitan and a Hill Stakes here at Randwick. He's also finished second in a BMW at Rosehill.

Aliyana Tilde got the chocolates for us a few weeks ago but looks thrown in at the deep end here however I could maybe entertain her in trifecta and first four betting.

Permit, Tremec and Coliseo are in good form but appear to be out of their depth here and Vatuvei wouldn't be a total shock. He won the Moonee Valley Cup fourth run in last prep and is finally getting to a suitable trip.

Locky's Selections

11 Hathras
2 Julienas

1 Mourayan

Sapphire Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 3-y-o & up fillies & mares set weights plus penalties)

* Ever The Same is an early scratching

Current market

I've got a feeling this will be a race set up for the swoopers with Mrs Onassis, Satin Shoes, Altar, Karuta Queen, Miss Stellabelle and Gybe all likely to push forward. So I'll be looking away from them when making my selections here because I've got a feeling they may cut each other up in front.

I also find it hard to tip anything that finished behind Arinosa last time, despite the fact she will meet many of them worse at the weights. I felt she had Shamal Wind (1 kilo better off), the unlucky New Beginning (0.5kg), Lady's Angel (no difference) and Soft Sand (2kg) well covered.

Looking at other form races and the run of Dystopia when fourth in the Galaxy was super. I've just got a query on her second-up and have to wonder how much that first-up run in a much tougher race took out of her.

Detours flies fresh with three wins and a second from four first-up attempts. She can get in under the radar too like last Spring when she won first-up in the How Now Stakes at Caulfield on Underwood Stakes Day paying $8.50.

Emmalene comes down from Queensland off a solid first-up win and has shown in the past that she is a mare of above average ability. She's had her problems but appears to be back on track.

Locky's Selections

9 Detours

5 Arinosa
4 Dystopia

Other bets

Tatra (Race 2 No. 1) will be much better back to 1600m and given that Toydini is likely to start pretty short given all the hype I'm happy to take him on at the level weights. Should get about $5.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Who put this Norwegian flag here?
- Robert Falcon Scott, South Pole, 17 January 1912

Golden Slipper preview

It's like an episode of "Sale of the Century"...

Nathan Tinkler's $300 million dollar investment Patinack Farm is up for sale. The embattled businessman says he just does not have the time to manage his racing empire. It is understood the racing and breeding operation is for sale as a single entity with the hope it will be retained as a going concern.

Also up up for sale is a half brother to Black Caviar. The colt is expected to break the record of $3 million for a yearling sold at auction in Australia when he goes under the hammer in the Sydney sales ring next week.

Meanwhile Darley has opened the petty cash tin to buy a 29% share in Animal Kingdom following his win in the $US10 million Dubai World Cup last weekend. Arrowfield Stud  remains the majority owner in the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner, who now heads to the Royal Ascot meeting in England this June to contest either the Queen Anne Stakes or the Prince of Wales Stakes. He'll then head to Australia to serve stud duties in the Hunter Valley this spring before heading to Darley's Jonabell Farm in Kentucky.

Animal Kingdom winning the 2013 Dubai World Cup

Meanwhile Ocean Park's European campaign has been shelved after his disappointing run in the Dubai Duty Free on the same night. The Cox Plate winner started favourite in the Group 1 1800m race but could beat only two runners home. Trainer Gary Hennessy reported heat in the foreleg the morning after the race and said he raced 10kg below his last winning weight and that the travel showed up in his lack of energy. He'll return to New Zealand for a rest whilst the owners assess his future, which could be a return tilt at the Cox Plate or possibly retirement to stud.

Bad news for connections of talented three-year-old filly Isabella Snowflake. The sprinters racing days are almost certainly over after she suffered a severed tendon in her off hind leg shortly after the start in The Galaxy at Rosehill last weekend.  From all reports surgery has gone well although the risk of infection is still a concern. In hindsight her effort to beat three runners home was remarkable.

Still on the injury front and Buffering has suffered a stone bruise but trainer Robert Heathcote remains hopeful the issue can resolve itself quickly, allowing the gelding to race in next Saturday's T.J Smith Stakes. Heathcote said Buffering was lame when he walked out of his box on Thursday morning but the problem was quickly identified. The Victory Stakes in Brisbane on April 27 is the back-up plan.

That meeting will now be run at Doomben, with the May 11 BTC Cup meeting switched to Eagle Farm. The move has been made in case the connections of Black Caviar decide to head north for the race, as Eagle Farm has a larger capacity.

LOOKING BACK

Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)

It's A Dundeel was dominant and is a deserved favourite for the Australian Derby next weekend. Sacred Falls and Tatra were a minute away and probably didn't see out a strong 2000m and both will now be freshened up and brought back to the mile. From all reports Hvasstan was on his Melbourne leg the whole way and never got into the race. He will be left in Sydney in the lead-up to the Derby in an effort to get him used to the Sydney way of going.

Locky's Selections

5 Sacred Falls (2nd)

2 It's A Dundeel (1st)

4 Hvasstan (7th)

Quinella $3.90

It's a Dundeel winning the 2013 Rosehill Guineas

The Galaxy (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)

Phenomonal. That's the only way to describe the win by Bel Sprinter. He dropped on them like a bomb just before the 200m and won as he liked. Snitzerland was gallant in defeat and beat the rest by a space. Corey Brown must have thought the winner chimed in at the furlong because he was cruising on the filly but was passed as if he were tied to a hitching post. Decision Time, Dystopia and Single ran on soundly and may benefit from a drop in class. The Sea Siren camp admitted they erred by riding her too close to a hot speed. Tiger Tees did too much early work from a wide gate and Howmuchdoyouloveme was disappointing after seeming to get a good run in transit but finding nothing when the pressure was applied.

Locky's Selections

2 Sea Siren (8th)

9 Tiger Tees (9th)

8 Howmuchdoyouloveme (12th)

Ajax Stakes (Group 2, 1500m, quality handicap)

The three in-form, rock-hard fit horses ran the trifecta after Havana Rey was allowed to dictate the tempo, with Monton and Riva De Lago stalking him every step of the way. In a leader dominated race Lightinthenite, Beaten Up and Lamasery did well to make up late ground. Carlton House appeared to have every possible hope.

Locky's Selections

11 Lightinthenite (4th)

10 Havana Rey (1st) $7.70 win / $2.70 place

1 Carlton House (13th)

Magic Night Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o fillies set weights)

An open race where they bet $6 the field and five of the top six in betting (Itameri, Assail, Bulbula, Brilliant Bisc and Greytfilly) failed to finish in the top four. Again a leader dominated race, with Scandiva able to defy the late challenges of Shahad, Major Conquest and Vocalise who would have been better suited by a truly run race. The only runner with a real excuse was Greytfilly who bungled the start, but she's starting to make a habit of it.

Locky's Selections

4 Greytfilly (11th)

5 Thump (6th)

7 Vocalise (4th)

Pago Pago Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o colts & geldings set weights)

Sidestep won well and as is right in the Slipper tomorrow. Dothraki kicked on straightening and held off all bar one but it's difficult to see him reversing the decision in the Slipper. Fuerza looks like he'll appreciate a step up to 1400m and Diamond Oasis was there to win but wasn't good enough on the day. Once again I just missed the trifecta. First, second, fourth. That should be the motto on my coat of arms.

Locky's Selections

4 Sidestep (1st) $1.90 win

6 Diamond Oasis (4th)

3 Dothraki (2nd)

Any 2 4-3 $2.30

Other bets

Last week I wrote:

Aliyana Tilde (Rosehill Race 5 No. 5) ran on well from a long way back last start against the tempo. She should eat up the 1900m, having finished a long head second to Streama in last year's Australian Oaks. Should be about $5.50. 

Won. $8.80 win / $2.90 place. Ch-ching.

You'll probably get around $5 Ichihara (Rosehill Race 1 No. 5) despite the fact she is meeting a lot of these horses better off at the weights for having beaten them last time out. 

12th. Very disappointing.

Miss Stellabelle (Rosehill Race 9 No. 2) was desperately unlucky last start and with even luck tomorrow could surprise a few people. Each way at the $9 in a tough race looks the way to go. 

3rd. $2.30 place. Was there to win but the other two sprinted better at the finish. Sound run.

Folding Gear (Caulfield Race 7  No. 3) has won two from two at Caulfield over 2000m, including the Naturalism Stakes last Spring when he was also third-up from a spell as he is tomorrow. Currently a $7 chance. 

2nd. $1.80 place. Reverse the runs and he probably beats the winner, who is a very smart horse.

LOOKING FORWARD

All markets courtesy of

Rosehill

*** With Sydney copping plenty of rain this week the track is already rated a Heavy 8 and with the prospect of more rain to come, all selections have been made on the basis that the track will not improve and will remain heavy ***

Golden Slipper Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, 2-y-o set weights)

Current market

There's a lot to look at and the easiest way is probably in market order:

Overreach is the only two-year-old in the country, outside of the absent Miracles of Life, who has spaced her opposition in her victories. Three of the last six winners have come from barrier one. The favourite hoodoo is against her with only two top fancies winning in the last 23 years but both of those were in the last five years (Sepoy 2001, Sebring 2008).

Sweet Idea is drawn to get a good run and nine of the last 11 winners drew barrier eight or inside. She is the only runner with a heavy track win against her name and Jim Cassidy is riding well. The concern is she has been run past at her two tries at 1200m.

Sidestep ran great closing sectionals to win last weekend and he keeps improving every time he steps out. The Black Opal form is holding up too with Criterion also a subsequent winner. Darley's No. 1 jockey Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride. This is however his third week in a row at the races. Granted he dumped the rider at the start a fortnight ago, but he still went around.

The Kiwi filly Ruud Awakening is the unknown quantity and she's got the visitor's draw to boot. I find it hard to have her sight unseen, especially as an on-pace runner with a wide draw.

Villa Verde went super in a trackwork gallop during the week, pulling rider Michael Rodd to the front. She'll need to have improved though because the favourite beat her pointlessly last time out. Wide gate is a concern for her too.

Criterion is drawn in but I wonder if that is really the place he wants to be? He'll get back and will be the one storming home if they go hard in front, but do you really want to be on the rail on a Heavy 8 come 4.00pm (AEDT) tomorrow? Also runs the risk of getting caught behind tired horses but the Hugh Bowman factor should cancel that out. He's riding as well as anyone in the land.

Fast 'n' Rocking is another who has drawn wide but given his racing pattern that may be for the best. He's another who will be doing his best work late and by Race 7 tomorrow being a few horses off the rail (with cover) could be the spot to be.

Whittington is probably the horse here who has flown in under the radar. Three starts for two wins and a half length second to Never Can Tell, two and a half lengths in front of the third placed Criterion. Jockey won this race last year on Pierro. Trainer goes alright too. She's won the event four times in the last 12 years.

Guelph has had big wraps on her since day one and started a clear second favourite before disappointing behind boom filly Miracles of Life in the Blue Diamond. Peter Snowden immediately made the decision that she would go straight to the Slipper without another run. Watch the market.

Il Cavallo (2nd emergency) was backed for a stack on debut at Sandwon and won like a good thing. This is a big step up in grade though. Having said that, Mosheen came up from Melbourne two years ago with one win from one start and ran second at cricket score odds. Unless Australia are batting.

I'm All The Talk thrashed Dothraki and Fuerza by more than four lengths last start and that pair subsequently filled the placings behind Sidestep last Saturday, beaten just over a length. I'm not treating his wet track run as a failure either because they went like the clappers in front and while Kuroshio folded up that day, he fought to the line to hang on for fourth.

Locky's Selections

13 Sweet Idea
5 I'm All The Talk
11 Overreach

The BMW (Group 1, 2400m, w-f-a)

Current market

Again in market order:

Fiveandahalfstar is attempting to become the first three-year-old to win since Grand Zulu in 2004, although it must be said that six times in the last eight years no three-year-old has even contested the event. Those that did in the other two years were $10+ and not given much chance. Favourites have a bad record too with nine of the last 12 going under, including some pretty handy types like Makybe Diva, Northerly, Tie The Knot, Theseo, Desert War, Americain, Universal Prince and Descarado. No placings from three goes on wet tracks either.

Former German galloper Hathras is an interesting entrant. He's coming off two wins in much weaker grade but he bolted in two starts back on a heavy track before doing a nine length demolition job on his rivals last time out. This is a huge class rise but he has been well backed in early markets.

Maluckyday was the eye catcher in the Ranvet Stakes a fortnight ago. He was tailed off on straightening and looked like he'd finish back with the cat catchers but his final 100m was better than any other runner and he gives the look that he will appreciate the step up to the 2400m.

Foreteller bounced back from his Australian Cup failure to record an impressive win in the Ranvet Stakes. Take out Fiveandahalfstar and he wins by three and half lengths. Will he run out a strong mile and a half? I have serious doubts but he has won three times on slow or heavy going.

Silent Achiever was disappointing last start when well tried but she gives the appearance that she is looking for this trip at this stage of her prep. Undefeated from two goes on a slow track, including a victory in last year's NZ Derby over this distance.

Kelinni might be ready to do something at his fourth run back. He's finally getting out to a suitable distance but his wet track form is dubious.

Niwot has the best wet track form of the rest with two wins and three seconds from five runs on slow or heavy. He ran fourth in a much stronger edition of this race last year and six of the last 12 winners have been at double figure odds - Cedarberg ($26), Littorio ($17), Fiumicino ($31), Blurtigeroo ($11), Freemason ($31) and Curata Storm ($101).

Locky's Selections

5 Maluckday
12 Fiveandahalfstar

10 Hathras

George Ryder Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, w-f-a)

Current market

Once again, from the top of the betting board:

Pierro ticks all the boxes. 10 out of 10 in Sydney. Six from six at Rosehill. Two out of two on heavy tracks. His only defeats were in a Caulfield Guineas when he set a breakneck speed in front and a Cox Plate when he'd probably come to the end of it. Pitchforked in at the weight-for-age scale. He should just win, as he did on this day last year.

Pierro defeating Snitzerland in the 2012 Golden Slipper

Rebel Dane should benefit from a drop back in distance and two starts back he did run Pierro to a head in the Hobartville Stakes on a heavy track, but Pierro was first-up that day and Rebel Dane had race fitness on his side. I can't see him reversing the result, but I could see him running second because the three-year-olds do seem to have a bit on most of the older brigade.

Shoot Out's barnstorming win in the Chipping Norton has been franked with Monton and Havana Rey both running cracking races in the Ajax Stakes last weekend. He's a multiple Group 1 winning miler with victories in the Randwick Guineas, George Main Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes (twice) to his credit and a second to More Joyous in last year's Doncaster Handicap.

Stablemate Danleigh won this race in 2010 but he's approaching 10 years of age and is clearly past his best. He will appreciate the sting out of the ground and his three runs at weight-for-age level this time in have been OK but I prefer others.

Solzhenitsyn was the run of the race behind Pierro in the Canterbury Stakes. He was entitled to throw up the white flag at the 200m after being posted wide without cover the entire race but he still had the cheek to run on and grab third. I think the Doncaster, where he drops to 53.5kg, is the race for him this time him as he excels three runs or more into his preparation ( 13 starts : 8 wins). Expect a bold showing nonetheless.

Laser Hawk and Veyron will have their admirers. I won't be amongst them.

The third runner from the Waller yard is Reliable Man. He's a French Derby winner and finished fourth (beaten three lengths) behind So You Think in last year's Prince of Wales Stakes. He backed up one day later to finish fourth again, this time in the King George VI Stakes by less than two lengths. The stable is shooting for a fourth consecutive win in the race following the triumphs of Danleigh, Rangirangdoo and Metal Bender.

Of the rest Happy Trails is the one who is going to start at a silly price. Second-up last Spring he ran second to Sincero in the Memsie Stakes and then next start beat Green Moon over the mile in the Feeehan Stakes. (Sorry, I can't bring myself to call it the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes. It just sounds too much like something you'd order from a Chinese takeaway.

Locky's Selections

11 Pierro

9 Solzhenitsyn
1 Shoot Out

Queen of the Turf Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, fillies and mares w-f-a)

More Joyous winning the 2012 Queen of the Turf Stakes

Current market

More Joyous is attempting to win this race for the third year in succession and on a dry track I would have declared her. With no three-year-olds entered for this weight-for-age race she meets all her opponents on level terms. She's won three from three at this distance and 11 of her 21 career victories have come at the Rosehill Gardens circuit. She has however failed to run a place in two attempts on really heavy going so if the track deteriorates much further that has to be a worry.

Red Tracer is the obvious danger if the track is bottomless. She's won six from six on slow or worse going. This time last year she finished fifth in this race after running ninth in the Coolmore Classic with 55.5.kg. This time around she got beaten an eyelash in the Coolmore with 57.5kg so she would appear to be going better. 

Appearance has two wins and a second from three tries on heavy ground but she isn't well weighted, meeting Red Tracer 2.5kg worse off for having beaten her by just a nose in the Coolmore Classic. On the plus side the stable is flying. Guy Walter bagged a winning double at Rosehill a fortnight ago (Appearance, Toydini) before grabbing another double earlier this week at the Easter Monday meeting at Randwick. He followed that up with another winner on Wednesday at Warwick Farm.

Secret Admirer is the only runner outside the favourite that has winning form against the boys. Unfortunately that was 18 months ago when she won the Epsom Handicap. She hasn't won in 16 subsequent starts. She is a good mare and I believe she eventually will win another race but she won't be carrying any of mine in the meantime because she seems to be a non-winner. Happy to risk her.

Several other runners have good wet track credentials. Streama (5:3-1-1), Mid Summer Music (7:5-1-1), Pear Tart (3:3-0-0) and There's Only One (6:4-1-1) have all shown ability in the past and a liking for the conditions but I don't think any of them are travelling well enough at the moment to win this at level weights.

Locky's Selections

4 Red Tracer

1 More Joyous
3 Appearance

Vinery Stud Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o fillies set weights)

Current market

If Norzita had drawn an inside alley in the Coolmore like Red Tracer (1) or Appearance (2) I believe she would have won. As it was even with the tougher run she still wins it in another hop. Back to her own age and set weights tomorrow she should be too good, if she handles the wet track and the 2000m, and she gives every indication she will.

I'm a firm believer in forgiving a good horse one bad run so Dear Demi is certainly in the mix and, like the aforementioned Norzita, returns to her own age group tomorrow. Unlike the Bart Cummings filly she is proven on heavy ground and at the trip. Expect her to bounce back.

Kiwi filly Habibi is another who has won in the wet and over the distance. She boasts a win over the boys in the NZ Derby at her last start and is well in commission. I'm very wary when good staying three-year-olds venture across the ditch because the New Zealander's have made a habit of pinching our prizemoney (It's A Dundeel, Jimmy Choux, Lion Tamer, Monaco Consul, Daffodil, Nom De Jeu, Quintessentail, Scarlett Lady, Eskimo Queen).

It's hard to make a case for anything outside these three winning, but there are some handy types at big odds I could entertain in exotic betting. They are Summerbliss, Royal Descent, You're So Good and Alzora.

Locky's Selections

3 Norzita

2 Dear Demi

4 Habibi

Other bets

High Shot (Rosehill Race 3 No. 15) was doing his best work last in the Phar Lap Stakes and was the last one to pull up, a sure sign he's looking for the 2000m. He's entered for the Australian Derby so the stable obviously thinks he has potential. Happy to have a nibble each-way at the $8 currently on offer.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

I think it would make more sense to coin the phrase:
"Beware of Trojans who accept gifts. Because they're stupid".
I'm just saying is all.

- Greek soldier, outside Troy, 1184 B.C.