It's been a big news week in racing circles, especially for Sydney fans with confirmation Black Caviar will head to Randwick for the T.J. Smith Stakes in two weeks time. It sets up a potential rematch with her old sparring partner Hay List, with trainer John McNair forced to scratch the gelding from tomorrow's Galaxy due to a hoof injury.
As to where the mighty mare goes after that who knows, with several options already put forward including The Goodwood in Adelaide, the BTC Cup in Brisbane, a return trip to England, a spell before an assault on the Spring Carnival or possibly immediate retirement.
But we do have a few good ones waiting in the wings to try and fill that massive void when she finally hangs up the bridle for the last time.
Ruling Melbourne Cup favourite Puissance de Lune is said to have come through surgery well after going under the knife to have bone chips removed. Trainer Darren Weir says the former French galloper pulled up with a little bit of heat in his fetlock after his Blamey Stakes run but it's no big deal and they expect him to make a full recovery.
Mark Kavanagh's unbeaten mare Atlantic Jewel is also bound for a Spring campaign after scans showed she's recovered from the tendon injury that has seen her off the track for almost a year. She'll go into work in June with her main aim being the Cox Plate.
Jockey Chris Munce is also on the comeback trail. He returned to trackwork this week and hopes to be back in the saddle for the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Munce was diagnosed with throat cancer late last year and has undergone two months of radiation therapy and chemotherapy.
Another who hopes to be in Brisbane at that time is trainer Jim Conlan with his promising three-year-old Ferlax. The Sydney Carnival is no longer an option for the colt after he failed to recover in time from an injury suffered in the Randwick Guineas, but the BTC Classic is now on the agenda. This race has produced some future Group 1 horses over the years with names like Chief De Beers (two Doomben 10,000's), Staging (BTC Cup), Mr. Innocent (Doomben 10,000), La Montagna (Stradbroke), Gold Edition (Manikato) and Mental (Patinack) all on the honour roll.
On the subject of Mental he is just one of a few horses Australian racing fans will be watching with interest when the Dubai World Cup meeting takes place tomorrow night. The Darley galloper will start favourite in the Golden Shaheen while Cox Plate winner Ocean Park will also be at the top of the market in the Dubai Duty Free. Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden will contest the Dubai Sheema Classic.
In other news promising three-year-old Proisir will miss the rest of the Autumn Carnival and his racing future is in doubt after he injured a tendon. He will be out for at least six months and a decision is yet to be made whether he will race on or be retired to stud.
It's not looking good for Perth galloper Barakey either with the news he will now need at least a year off after his knee injury turned out to be worse than initially thought.
There's also been a couple of changes during the week too with Ashokan transferring from the John O'Shea stable to Gai Waterhouse, and Golden Slipper hopeful All The Talk undergoing a name change to "I'm All The Talk" to avoid confusion with a horse that has won a handful of races in Mt Isa. I kid you not, I couldn't make that up if I tried.
LOOKING BACK
William Reid Stakes (Group 1, 1200m, w-f-a)
The mighty mare won in what was little more than a glorified barrier trial. The only other run worthy of note was Fawkner who got home well for third. I'm not sure where they'll go with him though as he's not nominated for the Doncaster.
Locky's Selections
6 Black Caviar (1st)
5 Fawkner (3rd)
3 Spirit of Boom (6th)
Coolmore Stakes (Group 1, 1500m, quality handicap)
Barriers made the difference here with quinella horses Appearance and Red Tracer drawing two and one respectively. Norzita would have won in another stride. Dear Demi was disappointing and Flying Snitzel ran on but didn't threaten. Kiwi mare Zurella put in a good run and it could pay to follow her later on this prep when she gets up to 2000m. Steps In Time was brave and will be better suited at the w-f-a conditions of the Queen of the Turk Stakes.
Locky's Selections
6 Dear Demi (11th)
11 Flying Snitzel (8th)
7 Norzita (3rd) $2.70 place
Ranvet Stakes (Group 1, 2000m, w-f-a)
Fiveandahalfstar tried his best but the older, more seasoned stayer Foreteller wore him down. Maluckyday looked tailed off on the corner but produced a brilliant finishing burst to run past all bar two. Silent Achiever was disappointing and Kelinni battled on well and looks like a BMW or Sydney Cup may suit.
Locky's Selections
13 Fiveandahalfstar (2nd)
12 Silent Achiever (5th)
7 Maluckyday (3rd) $4.70 place
Any 2 13-7 $15.60
Canterbury Stakes (Group 1, 1300m, w-f-a)
The star colt proved too good but the mare lost no admirers. He should win the George Ryder and she should win the Queen of the Turf, both next weekend. Moment Of Change didn't recover from his tough run in the Newmarket Handicap and Solzhenitsyn produced a slashing Doncaster trial.
Locky's Selections
10 Pierro (1st) $2.20 win
7 More Joyous (2nd)
3 Moment of Change (Last)
Quinella 10-7 $2.70
Exacta 10-7 $4.40
Reisling Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o fillies set weights)
Overreach was outstanding and is a worthy Golden Slipper favourite. Villa Verde looks like she will take improvement from the run but she will need to because she was beaten pointlessly. Forget the rest.
Locky's Selections
1 Villa Verde (2nd)
2 Overreach (1st)
3 Diva Dee (4th)
Todman Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o colts & geldings set weights)
Weird race. Overall time was slow and yet the backmarkers dominated. Was Charlie Boy a good run to hang on for fourth after fighting the jockey all the way? Can Criterion and Fast 'n' Rocking be competitive in the Golden Slipper? Time will tell.
Locky's Selections
5 Charlie Boy (4th DH)
2 Fast 'n' Rocking (2nd) $2.70 place
6 Va Pensiero (Last)
Phar Lap Stakes (Group 2, 1500m, 3-y-o set weights)
I went wide here but I just didn't pick the right ones although it was still a rough result. Follow High Shot as I think he is still a rough Derby chance and the winner Toydini looked good. He'll have a couple more runs this Autumn and with even luck will win them both.
Locky's Selections
1 Albrecht (4th)
10 High Shot (6th)
9 Indianapolis (8th)
LOOKING FORWARD
Rosehill
Rosehill Guineas (Group 1, 2000m, 3-y-o set weights)
* Fiveandahalfstar is an early scratching
It's A Dundeel was certainly a slashing win in the Randwick Guineas and a lot of people have him over the line already. He won the Spring Champion Stakes over this trip last October and his first-up effort in the Hobartville when fourth was a real black booker when he flashed home his final 100m faster than any other runner. But there's no such thing as a sure thing in racing so if you like something else to beat the odds-on favourite don't let anyone talk you out of it.
In recent history this has been a race dominated by horses at the top of the market. De Beers ($17, 2006) is the only winner in the last decade to pay more than $8. Yet only three favourites have saluted in that time. Six times in the last ten years the favourite has failed to run a place. So the stats say the way to go is to back the horse on the second or third line of betting and that points to Hvasstan and Sacred Falls.
Hvasstan caught the eye second up when he flashed home from the tail of the field in a slowly run Australian Guineas for an unlucky fourth. He proved that was no fluke when he stepped out next start at Moonee Valley and won the Alister Clark Stakes. If there is a knock on him it's that he has yet to race the Sydney way so I'd prefer to see him do it first.
The more I watch the replay of the Randwick Guineas the more I'm warming to Sacred Falls. I really liked the way he worked to the line late, he looked like a real staying type.
As for the others I think Tatra will struggle to run out a strong 2000m and Solemn isn't travelling well enough although he did show staying promise last Spring when winning the Geelong Classic. The bottom three look out of their depth although trainer John O'Shea does have a good opinion of Twisted Emotions.
Locky's Selections
5 Sacred Falls
2 It's A Dundeel
4 Hvasstan
The Galaxy (Group 1, 1100m, handicap)
* Hay List and Adebisi are early scratchings
Snitzerland (above) will start a deserved favourite after her dominant win in the Challenge Stakes a fortnight ago but she will have to overcome some pretty damning statistics if she is to emerge victorious.
Only three favourites have won in the last 30 years with the last being Snowland in 2003. In the last ten years six favourites have failed to run a place and you have to go back to Jetball (1994) to find a Galaxy winner who was also a last start winner. And although 13 three-year-olds have won this race in the last 30 years (including five of the last ten), only two fillies have saluted. Throw in the fact that she's coming off a win where she set a track record after making the pace and there are reasons why she can get beaten.
Sea Siren looks the obvious danger. She has been helped by the fact that Hay List was scratched after accepting. If the decision not to run had been made before accepting Sea Siren would have been the topweight and would in all likelihood have carried more. She's won six from 11 including three Group 1's and she's won two from three first-up including the Manikato Stakes last October when she defeated subsequent Patinack Stakes winner Mental.
Many of the rest come through the Challenge Stakes behind Snitzerland so you'd think the only way that lot could turn the tables is if they've either improved a lot from the run or meet her better at the weights.
Tiger Tees gets a 4.5kg pull in the weights from the filly and has won three from four second-up. He actually ran past Hay List and Howmuchdoyouloveme early in the straight before weakening late, an obvious sign he needed the run. The 1100m is also his pet distance with seven starts for five wins and two seconds. The blinkers go back on again tomorrow and that's usually a fair sign that it's "game on". I would however have preferred a barrier that was a bit closer to the rail and bit further away from the car park.
Howmuchdoyouloveme also meets Snitzerland 4.5kg better off and does get a kinder draw so it wouldn't surprise to see him thereabouts when the whips are cracking. Decision Time gets a slightly lesser swing in the weights (3kg) and he was arguably the run of the race behind the filly that day but I have to wonder how much that run took out of him after more than 500 days off the scene.
Outside the Challenge Stakes form we have Pampelonne who absolutely flies fresh with three from three. Last September he won The Shorts first-up beating Satin Shoes and Appearance and form like that has him right in this up to his eyeballs.
Unpretentious is also first-up and has snuck into the field with the scratching of Hay List. It's interesting to note that Craig Williams confirmed himself as the rider for this bloke knowing full well he may not even get a start. He's won two from three fresh.
There's probably a few other rough chances you could make a case for in trifectas, first fours and quaddies but as I say each and every week - you can't tip them all!
Locky's Selections
2 Sea Siren
9 Tiger Tees
8 Howmuchdoyouloveme
Ajax Stakes (Group 2, 1500m, quality handicap)
I have much better news for favourite backers in this race with eight of the last ten winners paying $8 or less. Six of those started favourite or equal favourite. The bad news is there are probably three horses who will battle it out for favourtism.
Carlton House has been well backed in early markets - see below. The first horse owned by Queen Elizabeth II to be trained in Australia, the five-year-old is having his first start for trainer Gai Waterhouse, who has already won this race four times. He's won three from ten and two from four first-up but as he is an unknown quantity you are taking him on trust. Watch the market for any further moves.
Havana Rey is in fine form. He followed two strong wins at the mile (the latter obviously flattered a bit by the heavy track) with a gutsy fifth in the Chipping Norton where he led up a Group 1 weight-for-age field. He wasn't far away at the end (less than two lengths) and it took quality gallopers like Shoot Out, Danleigh, Silent Achiever and Monton to mow him down after he made all the running. He'll be suited by the drop back to handicap conditions (he meets Monton 3kg better off).
Logically that brings me to Monton. Punters and/or bookies must think that pull in the weights is going to make a huge difference because how else can you explain the discrepancy in the market? Monton will probably start double the price of Havana Rey despite beating him home by one and three quarter lengths last start. I mean he's been beaten an eyelash by Shoot Out at Group 1 weight-for-age level and he drops a kilo and a half. What price Shoot Out in this race? Curious.
Riva De Lago is another in a bit of a purple patch. He posted consecutive victories at this track over 1400m, including a win over subsequent Newcastle Newmarket winner Bello, before finishing a narrow second to Skyerush at his last run when dropping back to the 1300m. He's never won beyond 1400m but in his defence he has had just the one run at 1500m for a third placing.
That must put Skyerush into calculations. Her aforementioned first-up win was the first time in seven attempts she had saluted fresh, so I won't be reading too much into her poor second-up record (6:1-0-2). She did dead-heat for fourth (beaten three quarters of a length) in the Myer Classic last November behind Appearance, Soft Sand and Secret Admirer. Appearance made that form look pretty good last week.
Lightinthenite has amassed an imposing first-up record with three wins and a second from four starts. His only defeat fresh came in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle last September when he came from well back and just failed to run down all the way winner Rolling Pin on a leader biased track.
The two that best fit the profile of the race are Beaten Up and Famous Seamus. 12 of the last 14 winners have carried 54kg or less and 26 of the last 30 winners have drawn barrier 10 or inside. However I have a query on Famous Seamus at the 1500m and Beaten Up is having his first run in Australia and hasn't attracted much support. He's blown like a White House intern.
Willy Jimmy has drawn poorly but with the exception of his second-up failure his runs this time in have been good. He came from last to finish fourth at Gosford first-up where he lumped 59kg in a Listed race in his first run for 14 months. His fourth in the Apollo Stakes behind Alma's Fury, Tougher Than Ever and Danleigh was full of merit. The real eye-catcher though was his barnstorming finish in a slowly run Blamey Stakes to finish fifth beaten two lengths, not dissimilar to the run of Maluckyday that I identified last week before he ran third in the Ranvet Stakes at juicy odds. Yes, I know, self-praise is no praise. But it's the only praise I get.
Locky's Selections
11 Lightinthenite
10 Havana Rey
1 Carlton House
Magic Night Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o fillies set weights)
The best backed runner has been the Darley trained Itameri, who is yet to win but boasts a fourth behind Villa Verde on debut and a narrow second at her only other. Both times she was well in commission so obviously someone thinks she has ability and she is a definite watch if the money continues to tumble in.
Assail is also near the top of the market despite her failure behind Romantic Moon in the Sweet Embrace Stakes. Many put that defeat down to bad feet with the filly racing in bar plates that day, so perhaps the fact that they come off this week gives punters confidence. The addition of jockey Craig Williams doesn't hurt either.
Thump, Greytfilly and Vocalise also come out of that race (below). Thump was good but looks like she'll need further, Vocalise made good ground from back in the field and may be able to possie up closer this week with the addition of blinkers but Greytfilly is the one I can see making the most improvement. She loomed up to win last time but she just seemed to run out of petrol the last little bit. I'm sure she will take a heap of improvement from that run.
Scandiva broke through for a win at her last start after two unplaced runs behind the likes of Golden Slipper fancies Villa Verde and Whittington. She's regally bred, being by Australia's current leading sire Fastnet Rock out of the exceptional broodmare Scandinavia. Scandinavia won a QTC Cup herself and produced Group 1 winner Magnus (Galaxy). She is also the dam of the unraced mare Helsinge, whose progeny include Black Caviar and All Too Hard.
Brilliant Bisc has a win over Guelph and a third to Overreach. Her only failure was on a wet track behind Sweet Idea. She's been kept fit with a barrier trail win at Rosehill on March 19. Possible trifecta horse.
Bulbula is hard to knock because the Hayes stable is on fire at the moment and the formline is sound with a win, a second to the talented Montsegur and a fifth to boom filly Miracles of Life in just three starts. There have been some nibbles for it at double figure odds too.
Sense Of Hite has attracted early support but I find it hard to compare the form of that Adelaide race to what I've already seen in Sydney.
Tricky race.
Locky's Selections
4 Greytfilly
5 Thump
7 Vocalise
Pago Pago Stakes (Group 2, 1200m, 2-y-o colts & geldings set weights)
Not a race I'm keen to have a bet in but for what it's worth here are my thoughts and my top three - under sufferance.
The first race at Eagle Farm (11.00am AEDT) will give us a leg up though with Octane Flyer going around. How he travels will tell us if the (I'm) All The Talk form line is sound.
Criterion's victory in the Todman Stakes last Saturday has franked the Black Opal form. Sidestep was a close second on that day so it's no surprise he's found himself favourite here.
The shades go on Dothraki which is a fair indication this is D-Day for this bloke as they seek to clinch a run in the Golden Slipper next Saturday.
Diamond Oasis is well in commission after his debut victory at Gosford and has been kept up to the mark with a trial win over Golden Slipper hopeful Whittington.
Good Job Bro struggled last start and was probably one of the few runners that handled the heavy conditions in his win the previous start.
Trainer Bjorn Baker has already said that even if Fuerza does win this week he'll bypass the Golden Slipper in favour of the Sires Produce which I think indicates this bloke is looking for further.
Locky's Selections
4 Sidestep
6 Diamond Oasis
3 Dothraki
Other bets
Aliyana Tilde (Rosehill Race 5 No. 5) ran on well from a long way back last start against the tempo. She should eat up the 1900m, having finished a long head second (below) to Streama in last year's Australian Oaks. Should be about $5.50.
You'll probably get around $5 Ichihara (Rosehill Race 1 No. 5) despite the fact she is meeting a lot of these horses better off at the weights for having beaten them last time out.
Miss Stellabelle (Rosehill Race 9 No. 2) was desperately unlucky last start and with even luck tomorrow could surprise a few people. Each way at the $9 in a tough race looks the way to go.
Folding Gear (Caulfield Race 7 No. 3) has won two from two at Caulfield over 2000m, including the Naturalism Stakes last Spring when he was also third-up from a spell as he is tomorrow. Currently a $7 chance.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
What's that whistling sound?
- Mayor of Hiroshima, 6 August 1945
